SinoDefence Forum

Hendrik_2000

I doubt that Singapore will be on US side if Taiwan declare independent. The present prime minister LHL personaly visit taiwan and tell them not to expect any help from Singapore or any Asean country,
if they declare independent because he was convinced that China will declare war win or loose.

Unless China attacked Taiwan unprovoked Don't expect help from Singapore

Sofar Vietnam refused to allow US to use the old Cam ranh bay naval base out of deferrence to China Even though Vietnam fought a border war with China. China settle most of their border dispute with the neigboring countries except with the Indian

tphuang

FuManChu, it looks like you live in UK, so you have no idea of the anti-Chinese atmosphere in America. China is basically the American congress' new whipping boy, especially after the democrats took power after the midterm election. It doesn't matter what the Chinese generals said, regardless of who provoked what, US looks at China has its number 1 enemy. It's on the QDR.
Whether they need it or not is a different story, but America will help those countries in RimPac out if situation comes to be.
Actually, it's a far more difficult challenge for North And East Sea Fleet to overcome JMSDF + ROCN than for SSF to overcome IN. My point wasn't about what China is able to do, but in order to protect its interest, what it must do.

And no, it's not asking for too much for a Chinese carrier group to defeat Indian ones. Consider what they can throw out at each other in open waters. India does not have any nuclear subs, so the Chinese blue water weakness in ASW would not be a problem here. At the same time, the 093s would pose danger to Indian carrier group as the only viable submarine in the confrontation. The indian carriers will be smaller than Chinese ones, meaning that China will be able to carry larger and more capable fighters + carrier based AEWs. We are looking at Mig-29Ks + LCA-N + ka-31 vs naval flanker + naval J-10 + Y-7 AEW. The air defense capability of the current Chinese DDGs and FFGs with the induction of 052C series and 054A will be superior to anything IN has to offer with Delhi and Talwar. Therefore, you have better protection for your carrier from both the escorts and the fighters. So, India may very well be able to send out more carriers/naval fighters + shorter ranged ships than SSF, but it seriously lacks in AAW and the submarine threat.

Also, now that I think about it, PLAN's general weakness in ASW could be fully exploited by countries like Singapore, Indonesia and Malaysia. You have extremely advanced SSKs there like the Scorpene, Amur and whatever Singapore has. That's why SSF needs LHD with ASW helicopters and nuclear subs in order to counter this threat.

Sczepan

every single ship would be a single sheep - but these single ships could build a convoy, escortet by a group of navy ships, like the US and England have done in the atlantic war.
In the next 20 yrs china need the merchant sea lines esp. to and from africa furthermore, and they have to escort this ships in case of an conflict all the way across the indic ocean.
I don't believe in a war India ./. China,
but in case of any Taiwan-Conflict the US could controll these sea lines in using Diego Garica http://www.dg.navy.mil/web/ and http://www.globalsecurity.org/milita...garcia-pix.htm like a spider in her net - see the map at
http://www.globalsecurity.org/milita...ia-map_ha1.gif
Escortet convois would increase the safety of chinese merchant ships ....

FuManChu

I know perfectly well that there are anti-Chinese attitudes in the US. But as I said there are things China could do to reduce tensions, just as there are things that it cannot change, nor should try to even if technically it could (such as revaluing the Yuan too much). But then again there are also lots of anti-US attitudes in China. If you want to have a comparison, there are more negative feelings about the US in China than vice versa.

Link to BBC poll from 2005

If China just uses feelings in the US as an excuse not to try to change or a reason to do X, it will just lead to a vicious circle. The US says China is a problem, China gets annoyed and tells the US to shut up, the US sees that as evidence China isn't interested in compromise, so it takes a tougher/more defensive line, anti-US sentiment grows in China (and it is already pretty high), etc.

You didn't say that - you said the entire Indian Navy. That is asking too much.

__________________
"Japan is as much of a threat to China, as China is to Japan."

--FuManChu

bd popeye

You know I've read this many, many times. Claims that the US wants to use Cam Ranh Bay as a base. But i cannnot find anything offical to back that statement up. Right now the US has ships in Hawaii, Guam and of course Japan. USN ships have made several posrt visits to Vietnam over the last 4 years.

I did find this about Cam Ranh Bay;

http://www.vvg-vietnam.com/vignettes_52.htm

I also do not for see any war between India and China. Diego Garcia is poised and ready for any conflict in the Indian ocean. The US and it's allies have all sorts of equipment pre-positioned there. I was stationed there in the mid-80's. Not much has changed as far as the bases mission. There is now more USAF there on a rotational basis.

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petty officer1

Those are some major problems for PLAN and china as a whole. But can a more powerful navy will help protect the LONG TERM interest of china? In protect a nation’s interest, the military in a word is just a short fix. As the speed of our technological development, equipments can be outdated quick and become more and more expensive to build newer ones. Those money spend can take a toll on the country, with US’s DDX and F-22, F-35… how can the PLAN protect the trade and supply line alone? China need more than just a powerful navy… other fusion strategy is needed here.

Petty officer1

Hendrik_2000

The ball is in the US court It is not China but US that ring China with naval and air base around china heck just 7th fleet with it's 200 ships is larger than all 3 Chinese fleet combined Even that is not enough now us is buidling Guam into the largest forward base outside continental US So who you think should make the first move

Now that China for first time in history has the semblance of capable Navy the western world cry foul

Instead of accomodating rising China like the british does after the 2nd world war toward the US The western world is trying to contain China

AssassinsMace

Fu,

American politicians talk all the time about containing China before China does anything. So it isn't China that will do something first that will justify American interference of the seas for China. Let's all forget about America's right to pre-emptive strike, to which blocking commercial sea lanes will be not a problem in comparison, and only think about China as the aggressor to hide and divert attention away from the hypocrisy of complaining about how many ships China builds while having a military force itself more powerful than the rest of the world combined.

Comparing China with Japan of WWII? The same can be said of the US and its paranoia over what China will do with its blue water navy.

Like I said, this discussion cannot go without politics. You can make all the arguments about Chinese aggression all you want in the hypocrisy of British and US foreign policy being practiced right now. China has its legit reasons to protect its interests. Besides if Chinese technology and skills are inferior to everyone else, what is it that everyone is so frightened about?

FuManChu

Geez, the usual conspiracy theory rubbish. China is not facing a coalition of nations that are trying to "contain" it. If that was the case, they certainly wouldn't be so eager to trade and build relations.

As to the US, it has bases all over the place, but it is the height of arrogance to assume it's all about China. China is one concern, but these days just about everything is. Hell, the Americans are worried about us and the Japanese to the point where at first they wouldn't give us access to the F-35 technology, and it is regarded the Japanese wouldn't be allowed to manufacture the F-22 on license because there might be a
leak from their industry (if the Americans can't trust us, who can they trust?!).

So the Americans are going to randomly piss China off for no real reason? They're going to openly invite economic retaliation just because relations aren't great? I don't believe so. China would have to do something pretty serious for the Americans to cut off the sea lanes - maybe even more serious than invading Taiwan.

----

It's about time China dropped the insecure, victim-mentality and acted in a more thoughtful manner. I will say this once more, there are things that both China and the US can do to improve matters. To try to blame the other for everything is ridiculous.

That's the last I'm going to say on this matter.

__________________
"Japan is as much of a threat to China, as China is to Japan."

--FuManChu

AssassinsMace

It wouldn't surprise me. Look at the reasons for going into Iraq.


You're the only one bringing up "victim" here. Accusing that of the position of China and crying about Chinese aggression towards others. We're talking seas lanes and the right to self defense. The same thing your side uses as an excuse.

Hendrik_2000

If that would be the case,why would US expand all out effort to maintain arm embargo against China lobying hard to keep the embargo. Accomodating nuclear India to the point of hypocrisy but at the same time sanction Iran because she want to developed nuclear energy

Declaring Taiwan as a part of China but at the same time having security arrangement with Taiwan and making noise about coming to the aid of Taiwan

Encouraging Japan to rearm to the the point of allowing Japan to change the postwar constitution and making arrangement with Japan to help US navy in emergency

If that is not containing I don't know what is.

FuManChu

China hasn't recently been subject to (and breaking) UNSC resolutions like Iraq was, nor has it been kicking off conflicts against its neighbours. You cannot compare Iraq and China - though it would be a grave day for Asia if China were to become as beligerant as Iraq used to be.

__________________
"Japan is as much of a threat to China, as China is to Japan."

--FuManChu

Scratch

Self defence is a difficult term, there's no sharp line between defensive and offensive actions/assetts.
I believe China wants to be able to controll waters further out than those the chinese land based fighters and costal vessels can to date. And you can't really blame someone for that I think. Nonetheless it's a difficult situation when one side always tries to catch up with the other while the other side tries to stay ahead (at all means).

FuManChu

1. You were talking about the "Western world", not just the US. I said it was nonsense that a coalition of powers was seeking to contain China. China is a concern to the US in part due to problems over Taiwan. The US is committed to helping Taiwan, so obviously it doesn't want to make its own job that much harder by allowing China to buy whatever it wants.

2. India is already a nuclear power - Iran is not. Iran has also made threats to destroy Israel - is India nearly as beligerant? Not really.

3. If the US really wanted to contain China it would subsidise Taiwanese arms shipments - as it is, it often charges more than it does its other customers.

4. China is not the only security concern in the region - North Korea is more of a current problem. Besides the US doesn't want to have to look after Japan. It would much prefer it if it could rely on Japan for military support the world over. Other countries like the UK have supported Japan's efforts to normalise itself - and we don't care nearly as much about China as the Americans do - because we want to see Japan helping out on deployments as well, whether its peacekeeping, disaster relief, or whatever.

China's "threat" does factor into US decision-making, but it is far from being the overriding factor.

On a side-note, although I do not believe the US would attack China without good reason, the same applies the other way.

__________________
"Japan is as much of a threat to China, as China is to Japan."

--FuManChu

zraver

the PLAN's biggest real threats right now as far as an actual shooting incidnt goes are Vietnam (spratleys) and North Korea (smugglers and a possible war in Korea).

In strateic terms the fleet tasked with seizing the spratelys (with or w/o American aproval) has to be the most powerful. If those suspected reserves are ever proven then the area already listed as one of the worlds most likely flashpoints gows even more volite.

For the forseable future the Phillipines and Vietnam's claims are not going anywhere. Vietnam has the weakest claim, China the oldest and the Phillipines the most legally solid.

With the 8th largest fishery, possibly 4th largest oil and gas reserves, and smack dab in the middle of the busiest trade routes of allthe 7 seas this is the PLAN's major objective.

it is also one reason the USN does not trust China. She has refused any type of joint resource sharing and has occupied several islands in vioaltion of international law.