All About The Chinese Aircraft Carrier Thread

[Defense]

http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/01/...ss/carrier.php

BEIJING As China builds a military to match its growing economic power, its neighbors and potential rivals including the United States have puzzled over a key question: When will the Chinese Navy launch an aircraft carrier?

For decades, senior Chinese military and political officials have argued that for the country to become a great power, the People's Liberation Army Navy needs to add these potent warships to its fleet.

However, the major obstacle to this ambition is that aircraft carriers are hugely expensive.

The two 50,000-metric-ton conventionally powered carriers now under development for Britain's Royal Navy are expected to cost a minimum of $2.5 billion each. To outfit them with aircraft could cost that much again.

And, aircraft carriers do not operate alone. They need a fleet of warships, submarines and supply vessels along with advanced electronic surveillance for support and protection.

For these reasons, most experts assumed a Chinese carrier was decades away.

But after double-digit increases in defense spending over much of the past 15 years, evidence is now emerging that China has a more ambitious timetable.

"I am convinced that before the end of this decade, we will see preparations for China to build its first indigenous aircraft carrier," said Rick Fisher, the Washington-based vice president of the International Assessment and Strategy Center and an expert on the Chinese military.

Fisher and other analysts note that extensive work now appears to be under way on a carrier purchased from Ukraine, the Varyag, now moored in the northern Chinese port of Dalian.

They speculate that the Varyag, fresh from the dry dock and, according to recent photographs, now painted in the navy's gray, could be used for training or even upgraded so that it was fully operational.

Not surprisingly, the Taiwan military has also been monitoring activity on the Varyag.

At a briefing in Taipei on Jan. 19, a Taiwan military spokesman, Liu Chih-chien, pointed to satellite photographs of the carrier at anchor in Dalian, where he said it had been under repair.

"Although China claimed that the Varyag will be used as a tourist attraction, the aircraft carrier would actually be used as a training ship in preparation for building an aircraft carrier battle group," Liu said.

Analysts also report that at recent international air shows, Chinese military officers have been showing strong interest in strike aircraft suited to fly from carriers.

As with earlier reports that the Chinese Navy intended to acquire aircraft carriers, Beijing denied Taiwan's claim.

"We don't know where the Taiwanese authorities got their so-called intelligence," said Li Weiyi, a spokesman for China's Taiwan Affairs Office, according to a report carried last week by the official Xinhua news agency.

Whatever the timetable, most naval experts agree that China will almost certainly build or buy aircraft carriers.

"Given China's strategic ambitions, it's a logical move," said Sam Bateman, a maritime security expert at Singapore's Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies.

"I am sure the PLAN has carrier aspirations," he said, referring to the People's Liberation Army Navy.

Bateman said that, like the United States, two of China's neighbors, India and Japan, would be anxious about the prospect of carriers in the Chinese fleet.

What is clear is that China has already invested decades of effort in its bid to gain the technology and skills needed to build and operate these warships.

Admiral Liu Huaqing, vice chairman of China's Central Military Commission before his retirement in 1997, is widely regarded as the father of the navy's aircraft carrier program.

Heavily influenced by his exposure to top Russian naval experts during his studies in the Soviet Union as a young officer in the 1950s, Liu advocated that China should have aircraft carriers as the backbone of a "blue water" navy that could deploy beyond the country's coastal waters.

In military journals published in the 1990s he wrote that aircraft carriers would ensure China's control over Taiwan and territories it claimed in the South China Sea and match the growing military power of neighbors including Japan and India.

Liu, along with other senior Chinese defense analysts, also recognized that China was becoming a major trading power and would become increasingly dependent on secure sea lanes to carry its imports of energy and raw materials and exports of manufactured goods.

They argued that aircraft carriers would give the navy the ability to keep these sea lanes open in times of conflict or international tension.

Other analysts also say that a carrier would be symbolically important as evidence of Chinese power in the same way that U.S. Navy's aircraft carrier battle groups serve as a reminder of America's global reach.

Early work on the feasibility of building a carrier began in Shanghai in the early 1980s but the first clear sign of China's ambition came in 1985 when China bought a decommissioned Australian aircraft carrier, apparently for scrap.

However, before the vessel was dismantled, Chinese experts studied the design of this carrier and used the flight deck for pilot training, according to naval analysts.

The disintegration of the once-powerful Soviet Navy after the collapse of the Soviet Union provided further opportunities to study the design and construction of modern carriers.

Senior defense officials in Japan and Southeast Asia were intrigued when Chinese companies bought two decommissioned Russian antisubmarine carriers, the Minsk and Kiev, but speculation that these would have some military role in China proved groundless.

The Minsk was converted into a floating museum in Shenzhen, and the Kiev is also being modified, to serve as a floating tourist attraction in Tianjin.

In the 1990s, a number of countries including Spain and France signaled that they would be prepared to build or sell an aircraft carrier to China but Beijing apparently declined these overtures.

Some experts on the Chinese military say that plans to build or buy a carrier were shelved after 1997 with the retirement of Liu and renewed emphasis on military preparations to fight a war over Taiwan if the island declared independence.

Taiwan's proximity to the mainland means land-based Chinese aircraft and missiles would be well within range in the event of a conflict.

As recently as 2003 in its annual report to Congress on China's military, the Pentagon said China appeared to have "set aside indefinitely" its plans to acquire a carrier.

Instead, the Chinese military seemed intent on developing the firepower to sink aircraft carriers, a move clearly aimed at deterring the United States if it decided to intervene in any conflict over Taiwan.

This included a rapid upgrade of China's conventional and nuclear submarine fleet, the delivery of advanced Russian surface warships armed with supersonic missiles and an expanded force of Russian-made and domestically produced strike aircraft.

However, the purchase for $20 million of the 67,500-metric-ton Varyag from Ukraine in 1998 suggested that Beijing retained a strong desire for aircraft carriers and a blue-water navy.

The Varyag was still under construction in a Ukrainian shipyard when the Soviet Union collapsed and neither Russia nor Ukraine had the funds to complete the work.

A Macao-based company with close ties to the Chinese armed forces bought the carrier without engines, rudders or armament and said it would be moored in the former Portuguese colony as a floating casino.

At the time, most analysts said this seemed an unlikely explanation for the purchase because Macao's harbor was far too shallow to berth a warship of this size.

After a long delay while Turkish authorities, fearful of the danger to shipping, refused permission for the carrier to be towed through the Bosporus, the Varyag was eventually delivered to the Dalian shipyard in 2002.

The fact that Beijing went to great diplomatic lengths to persuade Turkish authorities to allow the transit was seen by some experts as further evidence of China's determination to improve its understanding of carrier technology.

There is tight security surrounding the Varyag in Dalian harbor, but work on the vessel is clearly visible from nearby highways.

Recent photographs show extensive repairs or maintenance to the carrier's superstructure and deck.

"There is a lot of work happening on that thing which is not consistent with a gambling casino," Fisher said.

[MIGleader]

Neither India or Japan have the right to moan about a chiense carrier. Idia has been operating a carrier for years, and has another planned for 2009, and four more planned for 2015-2020. Japan has Lpds and a u.s carrier.

[FuManChu]

Certainly India can't complain - and is it complaining? Or just "worried" that China might start producing them?

Japan is slightly different, as the vessels it has/will have do not have the same kind of offensive capability that a completed Varyag or other Chinese carrier would do. And the US carriers are only for defence. Japan could not use them for her own ends. I don't know that Japan can "complain" about a Chinese carrier either, but certainly China should not be surprised if Japan modified the constitution and built its own carriers in response.

But really I think that we're quite some time off China having a combat-ready carrier for jets anyway, so I think people are getting a bit too excited over this.

[Intrepid]

Originally Posted by FuManChu

Japan is slightly different, as the vessels it has/will have do not have the same kind of offensive capability that a completed Varyag or other Chinese carrier would do. And the US carriers are only for defence.

???

US-Carriers are the only real offensive carriers worldwide, I think. No other carriers can take so much firepower across the ocean.

[bd popeye]

Originally Posted by Intrepid

???

US-Carriers are the only real offensive carriers worldwide, I think. No other carriers can take so much firepower across the ocean.

I think what he means that Japan could not use an USN CV to attack any nation. They could only request the USN CV for protection or retalation if attacked.

Your first statement is 100% correct. USN CV's are pure power projection capable of striking anywhere...Check this pic out...

Pacific Ocean (May 25, 2005) - The nuclear powered aircraft carrier USS Nimitz (CVN 68) lead ships assigned to the Nimitz Strike Group and the Japan Maritime Self Defense Force (JMSDF) in formation.

[FuManChu]

Originally Posted by bd popeye

I think what he means that Japan could not use an USN CV to attack any nation. They could only request the USN CV for protection or retalation if attacked.

That's exactly what I meant. Thanks, popeye

well, since you're a new guy, welcome. and just so that you know, we have a fairly strict rule on one-liners, so be careful not to make any one-liner posts if possible. responds such as this can be done thru PM. --TUP

[darth sidious]

Originally Posted by FuManChu

Certainly India can't complain - and is it complaining? Or just "worried" that China might start producing them?
Japan is slightly different, as the vessels it has/will have do not have the same kind of offensive capability that a completed Varyag or other Chinese carrier would do. And the US carriers are only for defence. Japan could not use them for her own ends. I don't know that Japan can "complain" about a Chinese carrier either, but certainly China should not be surprised if Japan modified the constitution and built its own carriers in response.
But really I think that we're quite some time off China having a combat-ready carrier for jets anyway, so I think people are getting a bit too excited over this.

china can buy the su-33 any time just pay the russians varyag is easy to fix if the russians supply the engine

right now japan hides it carrier development under the disguse of "frigate" or LHD
htey certinaly dont have the right to complain as their navy is several times more powerful then china

[renmin]

Originally Posted by FuManChu

Certainly India can't complain - and is it complaining? Or just "worried" that China might start producing them?

Japan is slightly different, as the vessels it has/will have do not have the same kind of offensive capability that a completed Varyag or other Chinese carrier would do. And the US carriers are only for defence. Japan could not use them for her own ends. I don't know that Japan can "complain" about a Chinese carrier either, but certainly China should not be surprised if Japan modified the constitution and built its own carriers in response.

But really I think that we're quite some time off China having a combat-ready carrier for jets anyway, so I think people are getting a bit too excited over this.

U.S. carriers are only for defense?!, Id think not, the carriers symbolizes the true power of the US navy. Aircraft carriers are made for attack not for defense just like nuclear weapons. The carrier has been for ever a super war machine with many capabilities. Can you tell me why U.S. carriers are in the middle east if they are for defense? Sorry for the of topic just trying to make a point here.

[darth sidious]

Originally Posted by renmin

U.S. carriers are only for defense?!, Id think not, the carriers symbolizes the true power of the US navy. Aircraft carriers are made for attack not for defense just like nuclear weapons. The carrier has been for ever a super war machine with many capabilities. Can you tell me why U.S. carriers are in the middle east if they are for defense? Sorry for the of topic just trying to make a point here.

he just got baned in CDF for flaming and trooling dont take it seriously
carrier symbolized a true blue water navy the carrier more airpower then most national
airforce it is a purely offensive weapon or as the soviets puts it "weapon of the imperalists"

but in the future they are useless missiles are the way of the future

[Gollevainen]

All that happens in other forums, happens in some where else, and our pasts in othr forums doesent affect on anything in here, got it? So one more sentence of picking someone by his past and Im going to get pissed off. Only thing that matters is the members behaiviour in this forum. If someone has negative past, the KGB (moderation team) MIGTH investigate it, as we do it to all things, but other members should not trouple their minds over this!!!

[jackbh]

A carrier force is great for offence over long distance and power projection of a blue water navy, but it is not necessarely so for defence. If your navy is not very developed and you have a carrier. It will probably be more of a liability than a good weapon. I don't think China would be wise to pursue a carrier right now as it cost alot of money, and the time to train a capable carrier force would take years. China should better put the money on advance missle technology like the Russians do, instead of wasting valuable resources on carrier which could be a risky investment.

[FuManChu]

Originally Posted by renmin

U.S. carriers are only for defense?!

See what popeye had to say - he understood, so why can't you?

I meant that Japan would only benefit from them in a defensive situation - it could not use them for offensive purposes because the US would not allow it unless they wanted to do something themselves. So when MIG leader said "Japan has LPDs and a US carrier", I was correcting him over how that carrier could ever be put into play.

[Lavi]

It's quite interesting that a lot of people are commenting on the fact that Japan and India feels worried about a possible Chinese carrier, or at least I think so. A few points:

A) Of course they might be worried even if they have the same capability, it still is a vast increase in Chinese offensive capability.

B) Nations don't bother about what is 'fair' in politics. Of course it can be argued that if India operates a carrier they can't deny China the same thing, however, when messing with politics on high levels and national defence interests such things are usually overlooked. India simply don't care what is fair, the only thing they care about in this case is that a possible threath towards their nation might be built.

[renmin]

Future railguns can be mounted on carriers to shoot down incoming missile (just a guess). Any ways, the carrier is going to be around for a long time. its the only way a country can lead a sugnificant air strike without setting up a base. The carrier is truly needed and China needs one.

[swimmerXC]

I think if we donate enough money together we can save up for the Minsk Aircraft Carrier...
After all, all we have to raise is $16,000,000 USD..
Read the red part.... it's a must read

Minsk Aircraft Carrier To Come For Sale By Auction For US$ 16,000,000
Written by Administrator
Tuesday, 21 February 2006
ImageChina will put Minsk ship, a former Soviet aircraft carrier of Kiev class, on public sale which is currently used as an entertainment center, Reuters announces. The ship was the first Soviet aircraft carrier bought by China lat in ‘90s. It was sold for recycling, but in one of the companies in People’s Rep. of China bought up the ship, having transformed it into an entertainment center in 2000. At present, restaurants, a cinema and other places of entertainment and pleasure are disposed in the Minsk interior space.

The initial price on vendue, which is to be opened on 22 March, will be 128 millions Chinese yuans, that is equal to approximately 16 million USD. The ship is anchored at the coast of Shenchzhen city.

The reason of the ship sale is that Minsk World Industries Co. Ltd., which was owning the entertainment center, went bankrupt last March. After that the center kept on working, but under outside management already.

Apart from Minsk, China bought also two more aircraft carriers: uncompleted Varyag (of same type as the Russian Admiral Kuznetsov) and Kiev. The latter also was converted into place of entertainment. Varyag ship, bought in Ukraine in 1998, was to be transformed into casino, but it did not happen till now because of financial reasons.

Minsk aircraft carrier was launched 30.09.1975 and in three year time, after retrofitting and respective trials , was accepted for the operational service. In November 1978 it was accepted in the structure of the Pacific Navy Force. In February- July 1979 the ship made a long distant cruise from Sevastopol around Africa to Vladivostok with entering the ports of Luanda (Angola), Manila (Mozambique Мозамбик) and Port-Luis (island of Mauritius). Minsk AC visited Bombay (India) and Wonsan (North Korea) in December1982 during combat service campaigns. After the expiry of former Defense Minister Dmitry F. Ustinov (1984) and retirement of Navy Force CINC Gorshkov (1985), interest to Yak-38 planes gradually decreased because of aircraft low-level tactical capabilities. Since 1987 the plane serial production has been stopped, and in 1991 these airplanes have been put out service to reserve and have been gradually recycled. The conditions to provide base for Minsk aircraft carrier were unsatisfactory because of insufficiently developed coast infrastructure of the fleet, that has resulted in the accelerated expiry of the ship service life . Early in 1991, RUAC Minsk was prepared to move to Nikolaev for an urgent average maintenance work. However, the political changes in the country which took place shortly after and sharp reduction of allocations for the Navy have not created opportunity to make it. In 1993 г, a decision was taken to dismount weapon systems from Minsk, and put it out of the Russian Navy Force structure with its further dismantling and reclamation. In August, 1994 after solemn descent of the Naval flag the crew was discontinued and Minsk ship was towed off to Southern Korea for metal scrap cutting late in 1995 . In 2001 the information appeared that "Minsk was converted into tourist travel object.

Source

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