All About The Chinese Aircraft Carrier Thread

[Sczepan]

now the - very serious - german "MARINEFORUM" reportet the story, according to Takungpao News http://www.marineforum.info/AKTUELLES/aktuelles.htm at there internet-news side;
they doubt about the CBG, but reportet it.....

[chicket9]

Helicopters are an issue however...if Jane's report is accurate with only 10 Z-9Cs/AS 565s, then this is a very major issue for the PLAN. Afterall you could expect any helicopter carrier to carry at least 10 helos of all sorts...

Though recently Janes has put the number of Z-9Cs higher (25ish) and well the Z-9C is ready for production afterall.

Helicopter Carrier:
Chinese carrier could be as small as 14,000 tons, carry 16 helos...perhaps 2 Z-8s, 3 KA-31 AEW (Claimed to being orderd), 7 KA-28 ASW, and 4 Z-9Cs (alternatively, the KA-29 assault transport or PLA Mil Mi-17s could be carried in place). Would probably be as flexible as the Italian Giuseppe Garibaldi, being a small compact hull. Could be used for a variety of roles including troop transport which could accomodate up to a full battalion of marines. Armed with CIWS and short ranged SAM, and possibly some flushdecked launchers for YJ83 missiles (adapting Soviet design influence).

CTOL Carrier:
To me, I think the first Chinese aircraft carrier should be based on the hull of the Melbourne. I mean yes of course it was an outdated ship and it was designed as part of the Colossus class since late WW2. But hey the hull was a good design and size, she could take on jet aircraft like the skyhawks, and you could very well easily fit modern weapons, sensors, and redesigned lifts or superstructure. But the hull was a good size, small, and the Chinese did have a good look at Melbourne before she was scrapped.

Though you'd probably expect tonnage and length to be slightly more than the original Melbourne design, due to new propulsions, more equipment, and cause China does not operate the Sky Hawk, you might have to lengthen the hull at least to accomodate a future J-10 variant. Plenty of space for helicopters and trainers, but this design will certainly have some problems trying to accomodate the Su-27/33 type of carrier fighters.

STOVL and V/STOVL aircraft for China?
China has no known project as yet. China cannot buy harriers from the West as yet. Despite all the claims that the first carrier should be helicopter and STOVL or V/STOVL, the Chinese simply do not have this kind of aircraft.

The only source therefore is from Russia (until China's aerospace (if ever) will launch its own projects of such sort). The Yak-141 of course was a terminated projected after the end of the Cold War. But it was a modern design, comparable in performance to the MiG-29, and very much more capable than the Yak-38.

Some may argue that turning a dead Russian design back to life is unrealistic. But the carrier-borne MiG-29K, suspended development after the early 1990s due to lack of funds and the Russian navy's prefernce to the Su-33, had the development programme restarted for the indian Navy as long as they funded for it. My point is that the only optimal source for STOVL and V/STOVL aircraft for the forseable future is Russia, especially the Yak-141. It is not a bad aircraft and I dont see why China should not invest in its technology.

Of course China could develop carrier borne variants of their J-11 and J-10, but these can only probably operate off large conventional takeoff ships. If China wanted build something in between a conventional take off ship and a helicopter carrier, there maybe simply no combat fighter that could be accomodated by this 'in between' type ship.

Well my bet for any candidate for STOVL or V/STOVL technology is the JL-15...in fact I feel it has the potential to develop into a light attack aircraft that could replace the Q-5 and J-6 in many missions, and could be a carrier-borne light attack aircraft in the same class as the Harrier, Corsair, and Skyhawk (though carrying lesser load of weapons)

[Happy Hippo]

Hello everyone,I'm a new here,I come from Hangzhou, China,and I'm also very glad to come to here to share my one opinion to all of you.
China will never choose Carrier,there are some reasons,first,the limitation created by its economy,the education and the development of West province such as SiChuan and Guizhou will be put in the first place,to build and to sustain a Carrier will really cost too much money ,in fact ,China is not so powerful as you imaged.Second ,the most important,China's warships are really not good,maybe the most great vessels are just 136,137,while the others in fact have no any qualification to become escrots to Carrier,the main handicap is that most of china's warships are lack of anti-air ability,that is ,once war break out,the Carrier will no doubt become a great target for enemy.Up to now,there are still so many warships even have no anti-air missiles or atuo anti-air guns.Beside this,China also have little ability to detect the sub,all of this will become the deadly threat to Carrier.Third,what type of flight plane will Carrier choose is still a problem,SU-27?SU-30?OrJ-XX?after all,China is not Japan,not the USA,china is still a poor country in lots of aspects,Carrier?that would be a good dream for long long a time to realize..
At last ,compare to Carrier,I think the sub will be the best chioce for Chinese Navy,in fact ,sub have much more potential than Carrier in the future conflict and war.
My english is very poor,thanks very much for you reading it^_^

[Totoro]

Problem with carriers, or any large, expensive surface unit for that matter, is that they may turn out to be just a liability. It really depends on what sort of war we're talking. A carrier, be it a smaller helicopter carrier or a nimitz sized supercarrier, would be great for an expeditionary force attack on a far away island/country which is smaller and significantly weaker than china. It could even be useful in taiwan scenario under assumption that US doesn't get involved. BUT. That carrier will simply not survive 24 hours from when US decides to sink it. Talk about billions down the drain then... Plus, to have such carrier long term, you need to secure its harbor. You can not afford to have the likes of japan, taiwan, guam etc within airborne attack distance at any point in time.

[bd popeye]

Hi there Happy Hippo! Welcome to the forum! Be sure to read the forum rules before you post. And introduce yourself please. Use the links below.

rules;
FORUM RULES: Things to Remember Before Posting, important, please read!

introduction thread;
New members introductions - New members Introduce yourselves

Your English is fine.

As for the state of the PLAN. Thank you for your insight. I always suspected that the training of the PLAN was suspect. We all know about the state of the ASW aspects of the PLAN. You also mentined lack of AAW. I would like to know where did you gain your knowledge of the PLAN.

As for a PLAN CV. Any more insight you can provide about a PLAN CV would be very intresting. Most in this forum seem to think that the Varyag will become the first PLAN CV. You however have other thoughts. And you are in China....intresting.

[Macbeth]

India's economy per capita is half the size of China's per capita economy and its over all economy is relatively half. Its literacy rate is also below China's literacy rates. China has produced elite high school and university students. Although the number of students per capita are suspect, its absolute value is unrivaled.

Does this mean that China's carriers will be better and more experienced than India's carrier group?...No...Because at least the Indians have a carrier. They at least know how to operate one, they at least have that experience under their belt.

China's carrier groups dont need to be world class right away, but they need at least the hardware to build its base on.

[Happy Hippo]

Hi, bd popeye, thank you very much for your encouragement. I’m a Chinese college student, and you ask me that how do I gain the knowledge about this, in fact, I’m also a military fan like all of you, I like collecting some useful news and pictures about military, not only in my own country, but also in some foreign countries, I just want to try my best to eliminate someone’s misunderstanding to China, and share my opinion with everyone here. ^_^

[bd popeye]

Nice avatar Happy Hippo.

Thanks for your contribution to this forum.

I joined this forum simply to learn about the possiblity of the PLAN gaining a carrier. I and many others her think it will be the Varyag. She may be operational before the 2008 Olympics.

I asked you how did you gain your knowledge because I was hoping you actually knew someone in the PLAN. I spent 20 years in the US Navy.

Macbeth mention operating a CV. I've said many time just because a country has a weapons system does not mean they know how to operate it. When the PLAN finally does operate a CV/LPH it will take 5-10 years for them to operate it with any profiency. There is so much to learn about operating aircraft from a large deck ship. Only time will tell how well the PLAN will do.

[Macbeth]

Exactly...but you wont know how to operate it if the PLAN is sitting there debating on whether or not they should build it or not. Your interest brought you here believing that a carrier would actually be operational by 2008, you may or may have not changed your mind by now after seeing so many mixed signals from the PLAN. As I said the PLAN should have at least have the hardware on the seas. Training oneself on how to operate a carrier before the nation even has access to one is like training oneself on how to shoot a gun by running through the drills with a stick in your hand. Its all theorycraft.

As I said before...they dont need to be world class carrier groups right away, but they should build the hardware so as to give their servicemen the experience of actually being on board one and operating one.

[Sczepan]

a chinese carrier would not only be used to fight other carriers:
think about UN-Missions, about the Indonesian Massacre to ethnic chinese people, about chinese trade routs at sea, which could be saved by chinese warships ....
- a carrier could be used for power projection in a lot of different missions!

[bd popeye]

Originally Posted by Sczepan

a chinese carrier would not only be used to fight other carriers:
think about UN-Missions, about the Indonesian Massacre to ethnic chinese people, about chinese trade routs at sea, which could be saved by chinese warships ....
- a carrier could be used for power projection in a lot of different missions!

Excellent!..How about the Boxing Day Tsunami of 2004? Suspose The PLAN had an operational CV/LPH ship at that time? It could have been used for the humanitarian effort. The PRC wopuld have gained a lot of good throughout Asia with any sort of effort there.

[Sczepan]

Defense News.
http://www.defensenews.com/story.php...4013&C=asiapac

Big Ships for Beijing?
Analysts Can't Agree Whether China Wants or Needs Carriers

By WENDELL MINNICK, TAIPEI



Will China operate planes from an aircraft carrier in the next decade?

It's a two-part question that starts with this one: Does Beijing want to do so?

Western observers who believe the answer is yes point to China's rising desire to project force into sea lanes, especially to protect the flow of oil from the Arabian Gulf through the Strait of Malacca.

But other analysts disagree.

"Whilst China was interested in building a carrier, it had shelved the plan for a variety of reasons," said Ian Storey, Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, Honolulu.

Storey said Beijing has developed other ways to address the strategic
vulnerability of relying on Middle East oil.

"If China is interested in protecting its ships and SLOCs [sea lanes of
communication], then it can do that without carriers - frigates, destroyers and subs," he said.

"However, one or two carrier battle groups would be useful in this regard, and I suspect that that is China's long-term goal. Put it this way - China's Malacca dilemma is an added incentive for the PLAN [People's Liberation Army Navy] to acquire aircraft carrier capability, and I am sure senior Chinese admirals are making that argument these days."

U.S. academic and government analysts are split. Some predict a Chinese aircraft carrier by 2015; others say it will not happen until after 2020, according to the Pentagon's recent report to Congress, "Military Power of the People's Republic of China 2006."

Bernard Cole, a China Navy specialist at the National War College in
Washington, said China may first deploy 12,000-ton ships carrying about a dozen aircraft within a decade.

"The next step, within 15 years, would be carriers of approximately 30,000 to 40,000 tons, similar in size to the U.S. LHA/LHD class," Cole said. "These probably would not be equipped with catapults/arresting gear but would still be very capable ships."

Chinese media reports indicate that Beijing is divided on the topic.

In 2002, a report from China's official People's Daily newspaper expressed reservations.

"Is China capable of manufacturing a sophisticated system of aircraft
carrier not considering political and financial reasons?" the piece asked.
"Experts are divided over discussions regarding technological capability.
Some give positive answers, saying that although lacking real experience on aircraft carriers, China has long been capable of building over 100,000-ton civil vessels as well as military ships on a medium and small scale."

More recently, a May 1 report in the Hong Kong-based Ching Pao reported that Chinese military authorities were unsure of the effectiveness of an aircraft carrier in future war scenarios.

"The Chinese high echelon has accepted the opinion on building aircraft
carriers; however, we should not place unrealistically high expectations on the construction of building aircraft carriers," the article said.

Pentagon adviser Michael Pillsbury said Chinese officials had traveled to
Brazil, Britain, France and Italy in the past decade to study aircraft
carriers.

"A public debate in China regarding the usefulness of aircraft carriers has been going on for a decade," Pillsbury said.

The second part of the question is: How would China acquire a carrier? Buy a foreign ship? Refurbish the antiquated Soviet-built Varyag, purchased from the Ukraine in 1998? Or build a new one?

The first EU arms embargo makes it unlikely that China could buy one from Europe, and a U.S.-built ship is out of the question.

China certainly owns plenty of old foreign carriers, but none appear to be good candidates for refurbishing. Chinese purchases of old carriers include:

. 1985: China purchased the 17,000-ton Australian aircraft carrier HMAS Melbourne to study its catapults, according to media reports.

. 1998: The Russian-built Minsk was purchased by a Chinese company for scrap iron and turned into a tourist venture at Dapeng Bay, Guangdong Province.

. 2000: The Tianma Shipbuilding Co. bought the Russian-built Kiev, the
former flagship of the Russian North Fleet, as a tourism venture, and it is now located at the Beiyang Recreation Harbor at Tianjin.

. 2002: Hong Kong-based Jiexin Shipping Co. bought the 50-year-old Minas Gerais from Brazil for $2 million and outfitted it with shops and a museum.

But no purchase has received more media attention and public fascination than the 67,500-ton Russian carrier Varyag, bought in 1998. Long dogged by uncertainty and mishap, the ship was begun in 1985, but with the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, ownership was transferred to the Ukraine, which halted construction in 1992 after completing 70 percent of the ship.

It is clear Chinese naval engineers and designers have seriously studied the Varyag, reported the recent DoD report on China. Of all the aircraft
carriers purchased by China, the Varyag is the only one under guard by the PLAN.

"By studying the Varyag and consulting extensively with its designers, China can pocket that investment and leapfrog into a next-generation design," said Richard Fisher, vice president of the Washington-based International Assessment and Strategy Center.

The People's Daily has also noted that China has no carrier-based aircraft, though it does operate helicopters adaptable to many different naval warfare missions.

Options include buying the carrier-based Russian Su-33 (Su-27K) or modifying the Chengdu J-10 multirole fighter, said Fisher.

"Many indicators also point toward an ongoing effort at Chengdu to develop a carrier-capable version of the J-10, most likely based on the advanced version of this fighter that will feature a thrust-vectored engine," Fisher said.

He also said China was likely developing a family of twin-turboprop carrier aircraft, similar to the old U.S. S-1/E-1 Tracker/Tracer family, for anti-submarine missions and carrier resupply.

There are signs China is preparing to develop the tactical skills necessary for an aircraft carrier.

China's Central Military Commission is sending the PLAN North Sea Fleet's helicopter training ship, the 82 Shichang Hao, to the South Sea Fleet so that missile destroyers and frigates can practice with an aviation-oriented ship, according to a June 4 report in the Chinese-language Hong Kong-based newspaper Ta Kung Pao.

"The formation will train on a Chinese framework on maritime carrier
comprehensive operation before China's new aircraft carrier enters active service," the paper reported.

[bd popeye]

Let me translate that article for everone Sczepan ...

""Blah, Blah, Blah. BS, BS, BS..We don't really know so lets just rehash the old news"' That about sums it up. And they even stuck in the old there maybe a carrier version of a J-10..Please .

Bottom line..NO Body Knows!!!

Message to the new head person of the PLAN..Get a grip dude..Let the world know what is going on with the PLAN CV programme..PLEASE!!!

[MIGleader]

Originally Posted by bd popeye

Message to the new head person of the PLAN..Get a grip dude..Let the world know what is going on with the PLAN CV programme..PLEASE!!!

yeah sure, and maybe he can tell his buddy in the PLAAF to publish a book on the j-xx while hes at it.

frankly, im not even sure if the PLAN high command is in complete agreement regarding the carrier program. some may support it, and they may be the ones that sent varyag to the dry dock last summer. other ones may be against it, and they might be why we havnt seen much progress over the last year.

[bd popeye]

Miggy sez..

frankly, im not even sure if the PLAN high command is in complete agreement regarding the carrier program. some may support it, and they may be the ones that sent varyag to the dry dock last summer. other ones may be against it, and they might be why we havnt seen much progress over the last year.

He is probally closer to the truth than all the guesses we make in this forum. There could be a power struggle at the top of the ladder at the PLAN. That's why the Varyag seems to be dormant.