SinoDefence Forum

FreeAsia2000

Yes sorry my mental capacity is so low i'm unable to understand you. Your's indeed is a towering intellect.

So to look at your comments

1. Strategic locations according to you weren't as important in those days.

2. Most People wouldn't give a damn about the Middle East if it wasn't for the oil today.

3. The Arabs were fabulously well off.


Ok lets see Strategic locations have always been the most important factor
in business and power from the battlefield to the economic and cultural sphere.

Actually the modern importance of the Middle East has nothing to do with Oil.
Have you read http://ksgnotes1.harvard.edu/Research/wpaper.nsf/rwp/RWP06-011/$File/rwp_06_011_walt.pdf
by Professor John J. Mearsheimer & Dean Stephen M. Walt ?

and everything to do with religious and ethnic lobby groups

Errm the Arabs were not the one's ruling the Khalifate ...that was the Ottoman Turks...hey maybe all Asians look alike to you...unless you mean
the persians who were also doing rather well ?....perhaps you mean some other ethnic group

Gollevainen

I would strongly advice everyones that watch the personal marks and notes towards other members abilityes and mental capabilityes. That path have only one end...a angry mod wawing baseballbat and giving cyperbeat up to all trouplemakers= issue warnings and ban some one...

So play nicely and enjoy of reading and writing constructive discussion. Thanks

Gollevainen

__________________

FuManChu

Noooo, not Gavin Menzies! God, that guy is so annoying. His work has been refuted by plenty of academics - even another naval officer - and yet he still bangs on with his unfounded nonsense. I guess he's enjoying the attention and paychecks he's getting too much

__________________
"Japan is as much of a threat to China, as China is to Japan."

--FuManChu

mindreader

This post is so idiotic I almost don't know how to respond.

1. My argument was that those aforementioned "strategic points" as outlined by maglomanic in his original post were NOT NEARLY AS IMPORTANT to the Ming dynasty as they may or may not be to China today. At best, the Middle East was far from China's concerns.

But instead you try to take things out of context. Really, what does it say about one's audience when you have to bold and capitalize everything when you already stated your argument in no uncertain terms... twice.

2. I think you are high. The importance of the Middle East has nothing to do with oil? So what is George W. Bush (OK bad example, more accurately it's his neo-con yokes) doing in Iraq, launching a new crusade?

Religious reasons may be (somewhat) the case a century ago (or even half a century ago), but it's not nearly as significant as today. I don't know if you've noticed, but even during the religious crusades so long ago, the European powers tried to loot the Middle East bare.

Mearsheimer and Walt are entitled to their opinions, but that's what they are, opinions. Nothing more, nothing less. And for every paper outlining the religious reason of troubles in the Middle East, I can find 100 based on oil. So in other words, you know what you just did? Selective research/reporting to justify your opinion. In other words, you didn't do research and then reach a conlusion. You reached a conclusion then did research to justify it.

3. With your little Arab/Ottoman Turk part, you are just pulling for straws. I don't know if you noticed, but Zheng He's fleet visited quite a vast area, not merely the caliphates. Historians generally agree that Zheng He came into contact with the Arabs, hence I put it that way. I don't care to guess who else he came into contact with because quite frankly the information is sketchy. But hey, perhaps that since it's obviously your understanding of such a sketchy history is superior to mine and you actually have knowledge regarding to who he met or did not meet, that you can educate me.

And you can categorize/generalize Asians all you want, I couldn't care less, although I think it proves that you are an idiot. You see, I get a sense that you are from that neck of the woods, which would actually put you in the "Asian" category as well. So generalize away.

******************************
Mods edit: What did I just said above? Why you are so eager to get your seccond warning and the one week ban resulting of that? Summerfever coming up?

maglomanic

Mindreader,
i do agree that "could" and should dont represent reality but then thats what we do here on boards. Discuss all those shoulds and coulds

Regarding the sea travel not being safer than silk route. I would disagree. Chinese Junks were much better built than what was used to discover America or circumnavigate. We are not even talking about crossing atlantic here more like traveling near the shores of south China,malaysia,india into middleeast. One handicap was knowledge of winds and their timings but Zhenghai and his men learned quickly from arabs when to make these journeys.
What you are underestimating is the volume of goods that "could" be transported without having a middile man (sorry for the could ).

What was done at that time to make sea passage less problematic was creating outposts near shores of malaka and other countries in Indian ocean.
If you think about it same could have been done by allowing private merchants to own ships or to provide them a shipping service from one foriegn post to another foriegn post.

I would disagree on that too.
Spices maynot be of value to Chinese but taking them to middile east and selling them to merchats who would in turn take em to europe where they were quite expensive. Similary Chinese silk was considered a very expensive item and was popular if i am not wrong.
I cannot attest to what i saw in the documentary but they said horses were in huge demand for military purposes.
Regarding the entire passage back and forth, just consider this that they were able to transport a huge girrafe from Africa in few months to China. Middle east was even nearer.


Probably and i dont know enough on the subject too. All i am saying is, the way Europeans set out for trade and then colonized so many countries which ofcourse resulted in their benefit, China could too have done something like tha. If not outright rule, then just having influence could have helped too. You combine few benefits from a dozen countries and it would start looking more than just peanuts.


Indeed that was one important strait in the world today. Expeditions were probably expenses but they were more like a head start. It was more about setting a precedent, more people could have followed in the same footsteps (merchants and traders) .

But anyway, all this is my opnion and i do admit that i hardly have rudenmentary knowledge on the subject. Just thinking aloud about "coulds" and possibilties

mindreader

Several clarifications here:
1. Yeah Zheng He's ships are build pretty well, but you see, nature has a way of screwing you over. Even today, with motorboats and steel hulls, a nasty storm still has a chance to flip your boat, especially going on such long distances.

Even if it doesn't, blowing your ship of course is a huge problem. As advanced as Zheng He's navigational system for its day, let's say a lone ship is blown off course, it could be days before you figure out your bearings, let alone rejoining the fleet.

Morale is another problem. Let me remind you that Columbus' men were almost in outright mutiny, luckily he discovered America. Disease, growing sea-sickness, discipline are all problems.

Thank god Zheng He's fleet is so powerful, otherwise he would have pirate raids too.

2. Sorry but no, you can't just provide private merchants with such ships. First of all, let me remind you that well established sea trade was occurring in China almost two millennia before Zheng He was born. It also occurred in Europe as well in roughly the same period of time. In fact, Venetian sea trade is quite famous.

But such sea trades are mostly limited to known sea routes, namely Mediterranean Sea and coastal China, far closer to what Zheng He travelled. Even with such a safety net, pirate raids and storms are significant problems.

So you might ask, why don't you give Zheng's ships to the merchants? Simple, they will never be able to afford them, both in terms of purchase and maintenance costs. Even if you purchase one such powerful ship you can't sail with it. Aside from the fact that most merchants simply do not have the sophistication to maintain such a ship, there is also the issue of hiring a highly qualified crew.

The last reason has to do with finance really. Sea trade along coastal China essentially is low risk high return. Going with a fleet such a far distance in hopes of finding something is high (if not extreme) risk high return. low risk high return beats high risk high return any day of the week, which is why you see such early explorations are without exception, funded (grudgingly) by governments.

3. I think one thing you forgot is that China produces spice, in vast quantities too. I see no reason for them to import them in such quantity from India.

Furthermore I think you forgot that whereas Zheng He's fleet essentially goes one way (except occasionally bringing foreign dignitaries to China), the silk road goes both ways. Many merchants from the Middle East were travelling along the silk road to China, either to do business or settle. In essence, they paid part of the "cost" for the silk road.

And bringing a giraff for amusement purposes is far easier than maintaining a steady supply of horses. Yes they were in high demand, largely because China doesn't produce any, but going by land would be a lot cheaper.

4. I think you are talking about colonization instead of purely strategic locations. The first significant difference is that colonies by the European powers were largely self sufficient and in fact, turned out positive revenues and resources. Some of those colonies just happened to be in strategically important locations. Strategic locations by themselves however, is not the same. They turn very little resources and the revenue is generally negative.

Think about the Golan Heights for example, what economic benefits does it provide?

If your point was that Zheng He should have colonized, I have no problem with that. In fact, if you read my original post, I said:

"If Zheng He went around in his fleet and conquored or plundered eveything he saw (his fleet certainly had more than the capacity to do so) thus yielding a positive cashflow, I doubt any minister in the Ming court would complain."

Baibar of Jalat

Mindreader you have not relised the Silk Road was very dangerous. Think of all the nomadic people especially the mongols, who were prominant in this period, sure there were pirates on the sea's but there more dangers on land.

The normadic people were very fond of plundering 'caravans'. It was not always possible to fully protect these traders.

Schumacher

Isn't it undisputed that at the time Columbus sailed to Americas, he & other Europeans already had mostly accurate world maps, including Americas ?
If indeed this is true, the world maps would most likely come from the Chinese. So unless more likely candidates came up, I've no problem believing the Chinese discovered America.

FuManChu

If that is the case, why did Columbus find it near impossible to get funding for his expedition? The entire reason he was refused time after time was that everyone said he was going to sail off the edge of the world. More importantly, if he had a map of the Americas, how the hell did he think he could get to India by sailing through America!?!?!?!?

So far, I have heard that one "academic" (a Scandanavian with some less than impressive qualifications) has supported Menzies theories. On the other hand, there is an entire wealth of information stating that he's off his trolley.

http://www.historycooperative.org/jo....2/finlay.html
http://hnn.us/articles/1308.html
http://www.dightonrock.com/refutatio...in_menzies.htm
http://www.maritimeasia.ws/topic/1421bunkum.html
http://www.kenspy.com/Menzies
http://michaelturton.blogspot.com/20...g-voyages.html
http://beijinglives.com/1418-Map-Con...ds-on-1418-map
http://tinyurl.com/jnkt9
http://www.laputanlogic.com/articles...0036-4322.html
http://www.laputanlogic.com/articles...1330-4811.html

Perhaps you should spend some time digesting the information provided in these articles, and then come back and try to tell us that you think Menzies is still right..........

__________________
"Japan is as much of a threat to China, as China is to Japan."

--FuManChu

Schumacher

Take it easy there my friend.
Read my post again. I said I've read that even Menzies critics do not dispute that maps existed b4 Columbus & I asked for opinions if that's true. I wasn't forcing my views on others like u know who. My belief that the Chinese discovered America is only on the premise that maps indeed existed since only the Chinese had the capacity to draw a world map b4 the Europeans.
BTW, since the world is round, why can't u sail to India around America ?

FuManChu

There were maps before 1492, but who drew them and what they are of specifically is another matter. People have suggested that the Scandanavians were making maps of the Americas, something that supposedly they couldn't do.

If that is your belief then you are entitled to it. However (no offence) I think you are operating on very shakey ground, and many academics would disagree with you. After all just because someone says criticis don't dispute what you said doesn't mean that is actually their view. I've heard someone mention this before, but when they're asked where they read it they can't remember.

He set course to sail through America, not around it.

__________________
"Japan is as much of a threat to China, as China is to Japan."

--FuManChu

mindreader

You are comparing dangerous with impossible. I've already explained why a merchant having a ship of Zheng He's calibre is impossible. So in essence, it is nearly impossible, if not outright impossible for merchants to travel to the Middle East by sea.

Nor are pirates the only concern involved in sea travel.

Finally, it comes down to public vs. private risk and how much you can predict. Dangerous or not, the land silk route is a predictable risk. You knew what you were gonna get before you undertake such endeavour. You can plan a bit accordingly. In sea travel, except between known ports, this simply was not possible.

Furthermore, whereas with the Silk Road, the merchants bear significant portions of the risk, for Zheng He's fleet, the government bears ALL the risks as well as ALL the costs, which once again, is the reason why funding was stopped.

Spike

Actually maritime trade between the Middle East, South Asia, South East Asia, and the Far East was already booming in Zheng He's time. The seasonal winds are somewhat predictable in the Indian Ocean, so the threat of loss due to weather is not impossible to manage. Maritime trading has always entailed risk, but if the rewards are there, and they definitely were along the Asian sea routes, there will always be those willing to risk it.

The risk from piracy was probably far greater than the risk from the weather. Records that survive from Zheng He's voyages clearly indicate that he fought a significant sea battle with a local pirate group in the SEA region. For piracy to exist there must be commercial shipping to prey upon. For a pirate group to be strong enough that only Zheng He's armada was able to dispach them meant that they must have been doing very well indeed.

Foreign traders have a long history in Chinese coastal cities. Marco Polo travelled by ship to the Middle East on his way back to Europe after his time in China. He described Hangzhou harbour as filled with a myriad of ships, more than he had ever seen, and this from a Venetian. Where did all those ships come from? They could not be all involved in fishing or intra-China trade, commercial interests along the Grand Canal had long held great influence at the imperial court and continually agitated against any expansion of intra-China maritime trade that would cut into their profits. Despite the fact that it was proven to be faster and more efficient to ship grain and goods north from Hangzhou harbour along the eastern seaboard. Therefore the only possible explanation as to what many of those ships were doing in Hangzhou harbour is foreign trade (with SEA, India, Korea, Japan, etc).

Note that during Marco Polo's time the Silk Road reached it's last peak in usage, because Mongol armies kept the passes relatively clear of raiders and created peace along the route which allowed trade to flourish. After the fracture and disintigration of the Mongol empire the Silk Road rapidly declined, even though interest in Oriental products in Europe was increasing. The decline of the Silk Road was a direct result of the loss of protection by Mongol and Chinese forces, as well as the continual rise of maritime trade through the southern seas due to improving naval technology. It is implausible that Zheng He's engineers invented their great ships on the spot, they obviously adapted them from successful existing designs.

Finally, spice production in China came no where near the production of India or SEA, this is still true even today. Most arable land in China was already used in the production of high yield food stuffs due to the country's huge population, tea and silk were the main products cultivated for export. Even if you were to say that China produced enough spices for itself, the rest of the world still didn't produce enough Chinese silk, porcelain, or tea for themselves, therefore they had to sail to China and get it or wait for Chinese traders to come to them.

mindreader

You just totally missed the point of my post.

1. Yes sea trade was booming prior to Zheng He's time. I believe I even made a comment on it in my previous post. As I've mentioned, at that time, sea trade was limited to known and established trade routes. But we are not talking about the Middle East to Inida, or China to the SE Asia. We are talking about China to the Middle East, which simply did not happen. Sea trade DIRECTLY, from China to the Middle East was nonexistent.

In fact, this bit goes against your argument instead of helps it. Instead of sending Zheng He's fleet, why not make usage of other merchants and their ships? Might make your trip longer and you have to pay a middle man fee, but it's also cheaper than maintaining your own fleet.

2. Once again, I don't see how spices comes in. You don't need to be the largest producer of spices to satisfy your internal demand. It doesn't matter that India produced more spices. What matters is that spices produced in China satisfy and always did satisfy domestic demand.

To say China should import spices from India because it is the largest producer is like saying that China is (and has always been) by far the largest producer of rice and wheat, therefore the US should import rice ad wheat from China.

I mean sure, if you import spices to take advantage of the arbitrage difference, great, more power to ya. But to do so with Zheng He's fleet, which, the mere maintenance cost of which is far greater than your profit (unless then load couple boats of nothing other than spices) would make any logical investor shake his head. You can never justify the premium you would need to charge to constumers.

3. The bottom line is, like I said, Zheng He didn't make any money. If he did then it's another matter.

Spike

Actually I am not arguing that Zheng He's fleet made any amount of money, in fact that wasn't the point of his journeys (as I think you have already pointed out). You seemed to be implying that maritime trade between the Middle East and China was impossible, which is total horsesh-t. There appears to be some ambiguity on your part and misunderstanding on my part.

Please define what you mean by "direct" trade. If by "direct" you mean an Arab trader would load trade goods in the Middle East, carry those original goods to China and trade for Chinese goods, then carry those same Chinese goods all the way back to the Middle East, then no, "direct" trade didn't exist. Even the Portugese or Dutch traders who came later didn't practice "direct" trade. The reason being that greater profits could be made by trading for various local goods all along the route, exploiting price differentials between cities. Merchants could spend years travelling between Japanese, Chinese, South East Asian, Indian, and Middle Eastern ports. Even so, this doesn't mean that a an Arab, Indian, Chinese, or Javanese trader didn't eventually travel between China and India or the Middle East.

Where did you get your information about China being self-sufficient in spice? Although China did produce some quantities of spices (ie. corriander, cinnamon, various peppercorns, etc.) it didn't produce everything and certainly not in large enough quantities to feed all the expensive tastes in Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Suzhou, and Beijing. Anyways many of the spices produced in China were transplanted from their original production areas in India and South East Asia. This means that demand must have built up in China first (shipped in through trade) before someone tried to cultivate it in China.

Final note, the objective of Zheng He's fleet was to expand the tributary network of the imperial court. The nature of the tributary system was not to enrich China but to expand its supposed "influence" through reciprocal exchanges (obviosly the emperor, as the "benevolent ruler," would have to give something much more expensive) and was actually very costly to the national treasury. We are not in disagreement upon the extraordinary drain on the treasury from Zheng He's voyages, and were discontinued as a result. What I do have a problem with is regarding your claims that travel and trade by sea between China and the Middle East was "impossible," that China was some sort of self-sufficient economy and only traded along its own coast, and that the Silk Road was safer and more profitable than maritime routes.