SinoDefence Forum

bladerunner

I was actually referring to your use of the word "soon" in post 102

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"it'll be hard for the military to sustain the lead."

I don't know if Im mistaken in thinking that you are inferring China may take the lead, but surely if this is so, It would go against their statement of " China's peaceful rise" If you look at Blasko's presentation in the army thread,you will find that this American military intelligence officer, believes China's modernisation is planned to take 60yrs, culminating in some form of parity with the West on their 100th anniversary.

Anway I suggest we leave the bickering and move on. Perhaps someone might be prepared to start a thread about whether people with wacky believes should be taken seriously, like the creationists versus the evolutionists, cheers

bladerunner

Regarding engineering graduates:
Sometime ago there was a Mackinsey report.to which Im certain a fair number of forum members must have seen as it was reproduced by a number of periodicals etc/. Ive forgotten the actual percentages,but it did say a poll taken from international corporates found only a small amount of graduate engineers as suitable for employment.Even factoring out the language barrier as a reason, the numbers were still high. It also suggested some of the degrees werent degrees in the strictest sense but associate ones, which amount to nothing more than a tech institute diploma.

With the expected interest in developing new nuclear power stations, perhaps its the right time for anyone interested in science, take up nuclear engineering.

As a side thought, what's the Chances of the countries getting together for another "Bretton Woods" style sort out?

bladerunner

[QUOTE=Hendrik_2000;102285]And with much of Europe in the same sort of mess, some posters here suggest for up to ten yrs, I wonder if China's economy can stand the stress?


I think you overlook several things here, Sure the money might be down but they can cherrypick which academic disciplines to support, and they are a nation of philanthropists. And it takes time to build up quality institutions for post grad. studies.
As for asian institutions: From memory, the last time I looked,not one was in the top 10, and as for the sciences, again from memory, only several 6/8?, and mostly Japanese was awarded the Nobel Prize.in past several decades. It has also been suggested that the Asian system of rote learning test taking and multi level bureaucracy, prevents the development of free and innovative thinking. A handicap which would surely handicap them in copying the best learning institutions of the West.
In New Zealand Passes are gained in some engineering papers through the quality of research and projects carried out through the year, with a formal examination being discarded completely.

bladerunner

Only usual poor quality allegations,so apart from that nope.

Schumacher

When talking about nations, one decade is definitely 'soon'. Even when individuals make plans, investments etc, it's routine to look at a decade or even more. It's really not that long term.
When the economy becomes the biggest, they can spend a small percentage of the GDP on military & still get a very big military. 'Peaceful rise' doesn't mean not to have a big military. Nations can have military that are far from the best/biggest and yet become a threat to peace in many ways..

A thread about wacky people huh ? I think you would be a good candidate to start the thread. lol

FriedRiceNSpice

I mean actually study the history, which goes far past poor quality allegations my friend.

There is a plethora of labor violations, industrial disasters, and corruption that went along with the urbanization/industrialization phases of the first nations to industrialize. Triangle Shirtwaist killed more workers than any major industrial accident in China in the past two decades. Food contamination in the US was far worse than the scandals coming out of China, have you ever read the Jungle? Very eye-opening... I didn't eat processed meat for a whole 3 months afterwords. Sure did the body good . Also read up on the Pinkerton's, etc. I can name you just as many examples from other nations, but I think the US examples are probably the easiest for us here on the forum to relate to.

bladerunner

I was replying to your question on Japan, saying nothing much other than quality issues. Meanwhile I'm reasonably informed on the rest of the world consumer quality issues, and food additives etc etc.
But the main point I'm making is that in a lot of instances China sweeps it under the carpet, hey Im sure the west did that as well in the past, but they have since changed, with a open and transparent inquiry, free press, being the order of the Day.Meanwhile to repeat the mistakes made by other countries is, in my opinion the height of stupidity.
By doing what some say is sensationalising the story Im doing the victims of these actions a favour.
Here's a interesting point from one of our newspapers. It comments on some new demographic studies done by the "French National Institute of Demographic Studies". It basically confirms what has been suggested in the past.
IF PROVEN TRUE Asia will have its own ageing population problem especially China when its retiring population is expected to double every 25yrs. I think that could result in the same problems that confront the West.

FriedRiceNSpice

First off, Japan did not industrialize in the 1950's. Reconstruction is not the same as industrializing. It already had the institutions, social structures, and technical know-how in place.

Second off, these are not conscious mistakes that these nations made during their process of industrializing. They are natural byproducts of the type of system that must be in place for maximal growth. If they could be avoided, I'm sure the US would have done so. After all, it had Britain's history to learn from as well. Regulations and oversight lead to red tape which slows economic growth. I'd rather see China the way it is today than India. The lives lost simply do not matter to most Chinese. In China, the country always comes before the individual.

Thirdly, the US has always had a free press. Ultimately, that free press did contribute to better standards and quality controls, but it took 60 years before that happened so. The largest reason behind the changes that occurred was as the standard of living rose, people had the luxury to worry about such issues. Even in the USSR, which was very authoritarian and suffered from low quality consumer goods throughout the century, enjoyed better safety standards and less industrial accidents as time went on.

Lastly, things are improving in China and I do not agree that things are swept under the carpet. During 2007, there was a major accident at Qinghe Steel Production Plant. It was highly publicized by the state media, and facility was forced to pay out compensation at a minimum of $26,000 USD to each victims family (an amount comparable to the sum in Western nations, relatively). That incident is certainly not the exception, and is slowly becoming the norm.

bladerunner

I said alot are, but that besides the point, Im glad to hear things are improving.I.As for freedom to report, do you remember the arresting of the most recent Chinese activist who campaigned on social injustices etc etc., I cant remember his name, while such actions can be viewed dimly by the West, whats your opinion on such actions?

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In China, the country always comes before the individual.

WEsterners would find that hard to understand, I don't think Kennedy in his 'Ask not of your country but what you could do for your country" speech, could agree with Chinas approch. to industrialisation.

FriedRiceNSpice

I cannot comment too much for fear of wandering into politics, but I agree that China does not have a free press or freedom of speech. However, my contention is that a free press is neither necessary nor sufficient in leading to better safety and labor standards. In an authoritarian system, if the government decides its wrong for manufacturer's industries to endanger the lives of either their employees or consumers, it will step in as fast as any democratic government. I simply pulled up a couple of examples from America's past as well as China's present. Even without a free press, news of an incident can spread rapidly leading to public outrage/outcry, and demonstrations "mass incidents," do occur in a very large scale across China.

Its a difference between cultural, history, and perspective. In general, Asian cultures are more collectivist while Western ones are more individualistic. Do you feel there are any notable differences between China and America's approaches to industrialization?

cmb=1968

Does anyone know when Europe or China made it mandatory for Trains to be equipped with Air Breaks?

The reason I asked this question was I found out that it took the US 21 years to make the Air break mandatory on trains when the US passed "the US railroad's safety appliance Act of 1893" and George Westinghouse patented the air break in 1871.

Before the Invention of the Air break a train Break man had to clime atop the train cars, and manually turn a wheal that engaged the Breaks on each car. This job had an outrageous accident rate.

Hendrik_2000

Let do the number again will you?. China's export to US and Europe is roughly 500 billion dollars but most of the export consists of daily life necessities and relatively cheap . So assuming it drop by a third which is unlikely, the export will drop by 164 billion out of 4.4 Trillion dollars economy . That will worked out roughly about 3.5 to 3.8% reduction in growth. The 500 billion dollars stimulus for the next 3 years contribute about the same growth. And who knows what happened in the next 3 years ! So yes China can still grow irrespective of what happened in the west!

bladerunner

Not all that stimulus money is funded by the Central Govt. I think from memory about 1/3rd is from central, the rest is up to the regions to raise themselves.

I think it could drop by more than a third Consider this , when oil was at $140 dollars, a survey by Der Spiegel and Businessweek of CEO's, in the last year, concluded that having things manufactured in China was less attractive, with less savings to be made.Be that as it may and oil at $70 and possibly climbing and high unemployment at home it gives reason to start manufacturing at home again, therefore those large trade surpluses may never return..

I also remember reading in the same magazines the number of Chinese that have the spending power to purchase the type of products that it exports to the West, numbering about 60million. Even if we were to double that amount, it is still less by several times when compared to its Western Markets.

China may well have 2 trillion dollars reserve, but it also has a lot of social problems it needs to address.As a example China has its own ageing population, recent studies by the French demographic research bureau suggest Chinas ageing population is doubling every 25yrs, one of the fastest in the world. resulting in a problem much greater than that faced by America and other Western countries. On the one hand it wants is own people to consume more, and yet these same people need to save for retirement. A very tricky predicament.

It doest matter how large your economy is, its making sure you are on the right side of the ledger.

Hendrik_2000

The bank provide the rest of stimulus package in the form of loan because goverment still own the majority of big bank .So when they tell them to jump the hoop they have no choice.

pla101prc

just because China is not problem-free it says nothing about its capability of surpassing the US. problems is what motivate a nation to grow, a problem-free society would have no motivation for improvement