SinoDefence Forum

Hendrik_2000

I am not trying to debate you on this subject. Just few observation, I fail to see where is this source of growth, is going to come from. Individual and goverment is so severely hamstrung by debt that they are all saving their money instead of spending. The day of careless spending is over. In the next decade the need to refinance social wealth fare spending will skyrocket.

Innovation is becoming a much more crowded field and anything new can be replicated elsewhere so fast these days . There are 2 sources of innovation People and money but with such large destruction of wealth there will be less money for University endowment, research grant and Goverment program for important but can be delayed research

People . It used to be that US is the magnet for talented student all over the world. But with improving living condition and more restrictive immigration I believe the talent intake will be severely reduced.

In mean time slew of baby boom generation who done so much in creating wealth in America, will be retiring.

Domestic student these day opt for easier study and more lucrative carreer in Bussiness and Law

Unless US change priority and spend less on defence but that is politicaly impossible

bladerunner

Whatever! Besides I’m not going to dig up data for a person who is displaying a remarkable inability to comprehend..
However Ill rephrase the post
The BBC in a in interview with experts in August2007 paint a damming picture of Chinese Construction standards.
Tao Hongyi, China director for the bridge builder Dorman Long Technology, says standards vary across the country. "Big projects in major cities are usually built to a high standard, but lesser projects in remote areas often slip under the radar,"
Is the recent collapse of a building, indicative of falling standards creeping into Chinese bigger cities where One foreign architect working in Beijing says developers would rather use cheap, shoddy building materials rather than more durable, but expensive, products, even on high-end projects.
"Many buildings in Beijing will have to be torn down and rebuilt in 10 years or so because they've been built so badly," he says.


Quote
“ the value of the real estate in Tokyo alone was said to be greater than entire US or the world”

Nice to meet someone who likes to read Playboy

Quote
“I'm not surprised many of your population feel that way, from what I know, the main information sources there are also heavy on drama with little substance”

Wrong
I seriously doubt whether you have read any of the commissioned reports on the suitability of a Free Trade Agreement between China and New Zealand..

Quote
“referring to a story-teller about moon rock attacks:”

Wrong

I never stated in my posts that I have read any of Friedman’s books. I merely introduced some comments reported in a magazine from a interview.. Now seeing you have a great difficulty accepting the validity of his views because he’s engrossed in the use of moon rocks, can you enlighten us to where he is wrong in his following statements which were the crux of his interview.?


1/“United States, in industrial power, produces more each year than China and Japan combined in industrial goods.”

2/“For example, from a military standpoint, if the entire world’s navies were arrayed against the United States Navy, it wouldn’t even be close. The United States controls all the waters of the world, which no nation in history has ever done before.”

SampanViking

Hi Hendrick, like you I am also sceptical as to how the US will come into any meaningful recovery within the next decade if not two. The main reason for this is the likelihood that not only will the US have difficulty raising $ Denominated Finance from its usual sources, but it will soon have to start physically repaying its existing debts in cash or Kind, rather than simply roll it on in a new debt instrument.

That however is beside the point, as the reason for my post is to draw your attention to the compound interest maths. Please check again as a compound rate of 7.5% will double your Principal over 10 charging periods, ie a decade for GDP. A compound rate of 10% will achieve this in 7.5 charging periods.

__________________
For uncensored Chinese Politics and Current Affairs join us all at New Century China Forum -http://www.newcenturychina.org/forums

FriedRiceNSpice

One more thing- you also have to figure in RMB appreciation for any kind of meaningful calculation of when China's economy will reach the same size as America's. Whether the RMB appreciates on the dollar and to what degree can be a bit tricky to forecast.

bladerunner

You are also cherry picking
I note a considerable amount of posts are of a subjective nature. Wheres your criticism on the lack of accompanying data?

crobato

Does not make them any right or wrong. Just shows you idiocy exists everywhere.

What is believed doesn't count. What is more important is the empirical record.

Mormons believe the Earth didn't exist past 10,000 years ago, and there are Mormons in high places too. Doesn't mean they're right.

__________________
"Lets do a thermal sweep."

crobato

We're already starting to see some economic recovery at this point, based on gains in stocks, manufacturing, and so on. We're headed into a soft landing and perhaps slow growth throughout the decade.

What we're not going to see is a rise in employment. The US will be besieged with unemployment and this is extremely sad for many people who are already out of work for more than a year. We got a labor force whose labor skills are corroding from unemployment.

Here's another clue. You can tell where nations are heading by the science and math scores of their children.

__________________
"Lets do a thermal sweep."

Hendrik_2000

Thanks for the correction I didn't bother to recheck it on my calculator My intention is just to draw attention that it is theoretically possible for Chinese economy to reach parity before 2050

Schumacher

Mr Tao actually made a fair comment that standards vary which can be said of China & any other places. However, I'm not surprised you fall for the old trick of some unnamed 'expert' saying something dramatic. Plenty of drama and spin but little substance, something I'm sure you're familiar with. lol

Go read again the link I posted and others' posts here which I mostly agree which predict China to overtake US economy/industrial power soon to see what's wrong with Friedman's statements.
Same goes the military aspect. When the economy is overtaken, it'll be hard for the military to sustain the lead.

Mashan

Also you can gauge where a country is heading by researching the fields freshman are signing up for, we are not creating enough engineers and scientists. Open market is good but an open market that reward quick money short term thinking and ignore long term social goals is your worst enemy.

bladerunner

[QUOTE=Schumacher;102321]. Unless you confine yourself to reading academic publications, it’s a phrase even higher calibre magazines resort to. I also note some very good posters here cite material that contain phrases such " an unnamed petagon/Whitehouse official said such n such.......without as much as a rebuke from you.
Your posts also contain prejudgements, not exactly a scholarly approach is it?



QUOTE]

Once again you are skirting the question, which is concerned with the statements related to the CURRENT position. The use of the word 'soon', is not exactly definitive.Rather strange for someone who expects preciseness in ones post
Note nowhere in my posts did I ever suggest China would'nt surpass Americas economic output.

FriedRiceNSpice

Actually, it is very hard for many engineers out of college to get a job in the US. It's been that way for at least the last two-three years. Especially in EE, where the labor market is highly oversaturated. I think the choices made by American students and programs offered by the universities reflect on the overall trends you see in the job markets here.


Actually, it more than is. And it's not just American and Britain. Look into the industrial/economic histories of Germany, France, and Eastern Europe. Heck, even look at Korea's and Japan's. Remember the, "made in Japan," stigma?

Schumacher

The key word is 'good posters' isn't it ? especially those who have established to be very knowledgeable. Don't feel you're being treated unfairly, that's how the real world works. When you're known as a poster who reference a Tom Clancy wannabe or even BBC for serious topic, it's natural a heavier burden of proof will be placed on you.

You obviously didn't read the link I point to. It talks of about one decade time-frame. That's not definitive enough for you ?

Mashan

I totally agreed about the shortage of engineering jobs in the US, back in the 70s I was a EE major and because of the economy I was forced to switch to CS, at that time I have no freaking idea about computers/main frame. But the job market at that time for CS major was growing like crazy, so I lucky out in a way. Currently Japan is facing the same problem we have on losing their industrial base but they choose to keep the manufacturing of the top of the line electronics and cars in Japan and farm out the low and medium end products to China, also product some car models in the US this way their can at least keep their best engineers and workers employed in Japan. Seems like the Koreans are doing the same.

Currently China have many different growth models at it disposal, which path China takes in the future only time can tell, but I am sure it won't be identical to the US.

crobato

Math and science scores are lagging badly in the US compared to Asia and Eastern Europe. The fact that young Chinese followed by Eastern Europeans trump coding contests---contests heavily watched by IBM, Oracle, Microsoft, Google, etc,---is representative of this. Without good math and science scores, you won't get good engineers and scientists. One reason why the smarter ones are moving into financial management and lawyering these days.

If you don't up your math and science scores, the engineers that led the US revolution in sciences in these last few decades are retiring or expiring, and little to replace them except immigrant scientists and engineers. Already high tech companies in the US like Microsoft are complaining against US government initiatives to stop outsourcing brain labor, so much that Ballmer threatened to stop hiring in the US. Intel and Microsoft, especially with Bill Gates have lobbied in the Congress on issues of immigrant visas for high tech engineers.

Its a critical issue in the IT industry. So sad that other people are ignoring this.

__________________
"Lets do a thermal sweep."