how to grab taiwan in 7 days

[MIGleader]

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/FD10Ad02.html

what do you guys think? credible? neocon? chinese patriot?
i hope this isnt too political, since it features talk on what military and sub-military means china may use to take taiwan.

[The_Zergling]

Personally I think the article was overly simple, with a few basic mistakes concerning weaponary...

"Taiwan's navy would have little to do in this war scenario, except sink like rocks. A few would shoot down a small number of the Chinese planes heading to Taiwan, but most would be taken out of action by China's numerous anti-ship missiles. Of particular annoyance is the nasty Russian-made Sunburn anti-ship missile (ASM). Three times as fast as the US Harpoon ASM, the Sunburn does not slam into the side of a ship like the Harpoon; instead, as it nears the target it rises above it and then dives straight down through the deck of the ship. The speed and angle of the attack make it nearly impossible to shoot down or to disable by electronic countermeasures or jamming."

I'm not going to comment about the author's remarks regarding the Taiwan Navy, but I recall that the description of the Sunburn precisely fits the characteristics of the Harpoon missile (except for speed)

In addition, I believe that the author's assumptions about the pro-KMT military is somewhat inaccurate. Granted the attitude of the conscript soldiers isn't positive, and it is generally true that most of the young men are eager to finish their Tour of Duty and get back to life/college/whatever but that does not completely discount them.

Considering that this potential decapitation strike is mostly in Taipei, a densely populated urban area, it is hard to predict that civilian casualties wouldn't be appalingly high. Regardless of how they feel about the current Taiwanese administration, I do not believe that any normal soldier wouldn't feel indignation towards those that would hurt their friends and family. (Believe it or not, there are soldiers whose homes are in Taipei that won't be pleased seeing Chinese soldieres)

The author acknowledges that the operation wouldn't simply be assassination, urban fighting would inevitably be involved. The area they are talking about is one of the busiest in Taipei. Unless the Chinese special forces are willing to discriminately and carefully pick out targets in the large crowds, it will be a bloody civilian massacre that will no doubt anger the Taiwanese, regardless of how they regard China.

Also, I believe that the "Identiy crisis within Taiwan's military" is not very accurate. The author states that "The idea that Taiwan is part of China still resonates strongly within the military"

My dad, some of my friends, my relatives (male) are all former Taiwanese soldieres, and though none of them are eager to get into a conflict with China (Anyone who is eager to kill should be ashamed of themselves) I don't believe that they wouldn't be willing to defend their homes and families in the case of an invasion, regardless of how they feel about China. My family has relatives in China, but I don't think that they'll feel great about innocent people in Taipei getting killed by accident. Feeling friendly towards China is different than feeling friendly to soldiers who come to your soil and kill people. Since Taiwan is so small there is also a certain chance that those people might be somebody you care about.

It is true that you cannot tell that Taiwan's soldiers are based in Taiwan solely based on their insignia, but it is not logical to directly conclude that the Taiwanese army regards itself as "The Army of Mainland China"

Some of the author's military analysis is relatively accurate, but I would have to strongly disagree with some of it, especially when he asserts that "everyone" knows the location of the PAC missile batteries and therefore they are easy to destroy and his proposed end of this conflict, the part in which he states that the new Pro-Beijing government will be swiftly sworn in.

Granted, speaking in terms of raw power and military force, there is no way Taiwan can hold off this strike should it happen according to this author's hypothetical plan. But a glance at history can relatively accurately tell us that the real problems would come AFTER military operations have ended.

"It is well known there are many pro-China legislators who have investments in China and more than a few who have had private meetings with Beijing officials. The inauguration would be conducted in the spotlight of the international media, giving it some psychological legitimacy in the eyes of the international community. There would be too many pro-China people in the US State Department - privately relieved the Taiwan issue was finally settled - to say anything in Taiwan's defense. "

The above statement is "true". What I mean by that the first part is true, and no doubt the inauguration would be in the international media. However, that would not give it definite psychological legitimacy, any more than the world believes that the puppet Iraqi government is completely "legitimate".

I disagree that there would be nobody willing to say something in Taiwan's defense.

Most of Taiwan's people simply want to get on with their lives and could care less about Taiwan/China relations, because they don't believe anything will happen, and if something DOES happen it will be peaceful.

But if you bring the horrors of war to their faces you'll never hear the end of it. Never mind that this hypothetical scenario is set only in Taipei, and the rest of Taiwan won't be directly affected. Taipei IS Taiwan's most important city, not to mention its largest city. The simple fact that civilian casualties will be unavoidable makes this a scary scenario.

The sad example of the US occupation of Iraq shows that if the civilian population is pissed off at you, you will have a hard time maintaining control. Even if you believe that all of Taiwan's people believe that Taiwan is "A part of Great China" you would be hard pressed to find someone who wouldn't be pissed off at being killed or having a loved one die for no real justifiable reason.

In short, I believe that the military aspects of the author's scenario are possible, but a smooth transfer of power and the future is inaccurate from my point of view.

I'm interested in hearing comments from the rest of you... this is certainly an interesting albeit inaccurate article...

[crobato]

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/FD10Ad02.html

what do you guys think? credible? neocon? chinese patriot?
i hope this isnt too political, since it features talk on what military and sub-military means china may use to take taiwan.

Personally I think the article is a bit silly. Too much imagination, too much hypotheticals, too much questions.

Is China's SSMs that accurate to be used in that scenario?

Where did the 500 H-5 bombers came from?

Kitty Hawk? Isn't that going to be retired soon?

Carrier group in Guam is at best a remote chance because politicians from Hawaii, which carry more weight in Congress, would prefer to move a CBVG group over there to help the local Hawaiian economy.

The use of prostitutes as spies is the part that gives me the best laugh.

[crazyinsane105]

Didn't the Americans think that the Iraqis would greet them as liberators? Well, look what has happened now. Even if Taiwan's citizens get hold of a small amount of military weaponry, they can cause havoc in the future to Chinese forces. China will have to be very careful not to cause massive civilian casualties and other things that have caused the US to suffer in Iraq.

[drunkhomer]

Didn't the Americans think that the Iraqis would greet them as liberators? Well, look what has happened now. Even if Taiwan's citizens get hold of a small amount of military weaponry, they can cause havoc in the future to Chinese forces. China will have to be very careful not to cause massive civilian casualties and other things that have caused the US to suffer in Iraq.

anyhoo...i found dat majority of taiwanese ppl r not willing to defend taiwan from a chinese invasion....here is just one on many polls

Question One: "If the Chinese Communists attack Taiwan, would you be willing to defend Taiwan's territory?"

Unwilling: 65%
Willing: 35%

Question Two: "If the Chinese Communists attack Taiwan, what would be your reaction?"

Raise the white flag and surrender: 18.1%
Wait to die: 19.2%
Wait for US or other troops to come to the rescue: 21.9%
Resist to the end: 28.6%
Other: 12.2%

Question Three: "Why wouldn't you be willing to go to the front line?"

As a woman I oppose war: 22.8%
Taiwan is no match for the Chinese mainland: 30.5%
Going to war will merely turn me into cannon fodder: 25.6%
If a fight is necessary, it would be better to reunify with the Chinese mainland: 12.2%

http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig5/chu3.html

[chinawhite]

I posted this article ages ago.

Anyway the best result for china would be if the KMT came into power. I am not talking about re-unification but status quo until taiwanese fell weel to join china again.

I do not support force and i definatly dont support the use of it. I see chinas moderization as focused on japan and he US instead of being focused on taiwan. Anyway I dont want to go to deep.

Zergling do you agree that the army is sworn more to Pan-blue/KMT than Pan-green/DPP?

Regards,

chinawhite

[mach]

KMT is reluctant to join China as DPP ,and Ma Yingjiu merely regard CCP as a tool to gain power.
When mainland "invades" Taiwan, I am quite sure that the army of Taiwan will fight against Chinese army to death with the lead of the KMT, IMO.

[Gollevainen]

Yes Taiwan, Taiwan, Taiwan...you seem to be pretty bold to dig this one up even when none of us superiors have given you promise to do so...
But there is need of showing up hunging in the air, for you to prove your deserved some more libertyes...let make this thread a test for it and see how you can play nicely...sofar im encouraged by the fact too silly has came up...

And I think I'll jump in too...


To me its always been kinda difficoult thing to conversate taiwan matters in our forum as i cannot understand the 'mainland' point of wiev. But then again, i understand it, somehow, just dont get it...and what comes to invading Taiwan, people tend to think wheter its parade march for PLA or otherwise for Taiwanese army. I think it isent so simple. Both have their serious disavantages that can turn the battle into intresting paths (as long as any war can be desriped intresting). Taiwan seems outward to not to withstand long period of PRC offensive actions, but as a finn, I tend to look things from different angle than 'bigger' world.
If we managed to do miracles, why cannot Taiwanese done? people tend to forget that national spirit is peculiar thing that can be overestimated but aslo underestimated. You can came up dozen good reason why wouldnt Taiwanese feel themseves as seperate nation and bla bla bla...but there is one good reason why the migth start suddenly feel one; incoming attack by 'foreing' force. Finland managed to unificate after the civilwar strif, even when the opponent was the 'promised land' for the one drifting party, and Soviets tryed to use this card wery eagerly...whitout any feedback from our side.
Well diving deeper of that matter one can only count the numerous mistakes Stalin made to paralyze all foreing communist movements, but have PRC done its deed any better? I can say much about it as im not so familar with Taiwan situation, but that is the key element of any oncoming fighting between two chinas. if there is will in Taiwan to defend, then the occupation can be too costly for PRC, there isent toys in taiwanese garrisons. Amphibious assaults arent from the simplest possible military operation, and sofar PLAN hasent got any experiences of conducting strategic landings...as well as they havent got even secondhand (meaning beeing the 'taking' part) experiences of any strategical operations. I severly doupt that current PLA could handle it as smoothly that it still represent the orginal motive for war.

Some of you post 'research' about this manner. i would like to see how those researches were made...lets say make one when Chinese LSTs are all ready underway and missiles beeing ignated...(god, i sound like vince;) hope i didnt generalize things too much...)

[Wingman]

Ok, there are many things I have to disagree with this author. There is too much gambling and assumptions.

An airborne assault directly on Taipei by China's 15th Airborne Corps (Changchun), with three divisions (43rd, 44th, 45th) would be the first phase of the assault
I know he mentioned anti-SAM, anti-airbase, anti-ship later, but THAT should be the first phase, otherwise those transport planes are going to be shot down like flies. And even if they were successful, is 11000 troops enough? This is sort of a big gamble here.

Pre-positioned special forces, smuggled into Taiwan months before, would assassinate key leaders, and attack radar and communication facilities around Taiwan a few hours before the main attack. Infiltrators might receive some assistance from sympathetic elements within Taiwan's military and police, who are believed to be at least 75 percent pro-Kuomintang (KMT), and hence, pro-unification.
Wishful thinking...
It's way dangerous to make such assumptions about the enemy. Sun Tzu would probably be very disappointed

Mainland Chinese prostitutes, already in abundance in Taiwan, could be recruited by Chinese intelligence to serve as femme fatales, supplying critical intelligence on the locations of key government and military leaders at odd hours of the night
This is just... stupid. I wouldn't want the PLA to sink that low

China might even get more aggressive by using special forces against US military bases in Japan, Alaska and Hawaii.
How the hell would those special forces even get there? Security would be extra-tight in these places should there be a war. And without actual fighting and total chaos going on in these places, it would be close to impossible to slip them in.

He mentioned ballistic missiles against US airbases in Japan which would be more likely to succeed. But is japan just going to stay cool about it? How do you know they're not going to retaliate? How do you know the Americans are not going to start a full scale war just because of the missiles? Even if China takes over Taiwan both militarily and politically it doesn't mean the Americans are just going to shrug and sail away after their airbases got bombed. They might continue and fight PLA forces on Taiwan, and it's not going to be easy for the PLA.

[The_Zergling]

In response to MigLeader's question on whether or not Taiwan's military forces are mostly pro-KMT...

Honestly speaking, I am not completely sure, since I have not been in the military before. However, something to consider is that there ARE quite a few Taiwanese soldiers pushing for the arms budget that keeps being blocked by the "blue" legislature, which tells you something about their desire to be able to defend themself against invasion.

If the Taiwanese soldiers want decent weaponary, I would say as a rule they would be willing to defend themselves.

Whether or not the soldiers pissed off at the KMT for refusing to get them some important defensive weaponary represent the majority is something I am not qualified to do.

But from this, I would say that the majority would be willing to fight, KMT or not. It mostly depends on how affected they would feel by the civilian deaths, I suppose.

[SampanViking]

Funnily enough Taiwan has been on my mind the last few days as well.

I am not going to comment on the article, as I do not really give the scenario much credence. More to the point however is that the KMT last weekend won a landslide victory in the 3 in 1 elections. Sure these are local and mayoral elections and yes as much a reaction to recent DPP sleaze revalations, but.....

Could we also be seeing the beginnings of a very substantial pyschological change in the Taiwanese - possibly so unconscious that most would be schooked by the realisation of it, that China no longer scares them as the Antipithetical enemy?

I also have some questions regarding the Arms Package currently on hold in the Parliament. These are meant only for Taiwanese or Ex Pat Taiwanese.

1) How much would this package cost and over how long would they need to be paid for.

2) What proportion of Govt spending would this purchase represent over that period.

3) would it be funded by tax increases or budget cuts in other spending depts.

4) If tax by how much

5) If cuts in budgets - where would they fall and how great would they need to be and the impact of them etc.

Again I ask these exclusively to Taiwanese - so non Taiwanese please refrain from answering

Thanks

[MIGleader]

its unrealistic to compare america/iraq to china/taiwan. my feeling is that china is going to plan to instal a government which makes the taiwanese feel happy and still in power. i wouldtn be surprised if the chinese sieze the taiwanese media. but china simply wouldnt go in and start carpet bombing taipei. the prc has many of sun-tzus principles in mind, and winning your enemyies heart will be the strategy for taiwan. perhaps a taiwaneses member interview is nessecary, to find out how they feel about this.

unlike iraq, taiwanese troops would rather sureender than fight like maniacs believing they can join muhammed. the taiwanese also dont prefer suicide tacitics liek car bombs. they also dont locates their hospitals convienientltly next to military bases. if the pla were to come, there would be fewer civilian casualties. im betting pla commanders would reprimand men who fire on civilians.

thirdly, the pla would probably engage taiwan by deploying the armed forces, but would give taiwan perhaps a 48 hour mandate to decide whether to accept reunification or not. the whole point is to make taiwan feel like its not surrendering, but simply joining a bigger group.

[utelore]

Not a bad artical. Nor the Greatest. But none the less entertaining. I dont think anybody but the PLA high command realy knows what the op-plan will be for the taking of the ROC. It could be a planned quicky or much more methodical and incrimental. Who Knows? I think the "quicky" could be much more risky but could have a high amount of sucesses if the ROC army does not fight. NOW if the ROC does fight....well the PLA would have a problem. so I think I am leaning towards?????????? not sure. BUT I think we will find out after 2008.....cheers neo-conservitive right wing american nationalist utelore. PS Im sure china will put on a class act at the big O....looking forward to it.:nana:

[Fairthought]

Pardon me if this has been studied before,


But let us consider the case that the US turns out to be bluffing and had decided Taiwan is not worth fighting for. In this hypothetical, China invades Taiwan and to China's surprise America does not intervene except maybe to evacuate important Taiwanese government leaders.

So the question becomes: If America chooses not to intervene militarily, what politically consequences can China expect to suffer?

The UN can't take any action (Chinese veto).

The UN general assembly can pass a vote to condemn the invasion. But would the US even get enough votes for this? Most third world countries are not particularly eager to side with the US against China.

US dominated institutions would be a different matter. Institutions such as NATO, the IMF, and the World Bank will take actions against China to be sure. America would make every effort to insure chinese assets in world banks would be seized. The US congress will pass sanctions on China, the US navy may even be authorized to hit China with an embargo. The Japanese and British navies would gladly assist. Europe may pass sanctions, not just military but a host of sanctions.

But a trade war would hurt the west as much as China. There would be a careful calculation to find the balancing point where the West can make China hurt more. Hitting China hard would be an oil embargo. Also, China's expanding merchant marines would be easy pickings for the US navy. It would take many years for China to rebuild. You can bet Taiwan's merchant marine fleet would be captured(in the name of Taiwan) by the West across the world. China would only capture the 10% or so that were moored in Taiwan at the time.

In return, the West loses billions and billions of cheap consumer goods. That's not as valuable as oil. In fact, the West can afford to lose this for several months on end before the spiralling cost of living hurts US consumers to the point of outcry. During the first few months, they'll understand the need for boycotting China and simply not buy cheap goods for a while. But certainly after a year, they'll yearn for the cheap consumer goods they've had before.

After a year, negotiations would begin for resuming trade. But in that time, China would suffer much more than the West. Loss of oil, money, and commercial ships would be a major setback for China. China can increase the pinch on US consumers by timing the invasion of Taiwan just before the holiday shopping season. Just like 9-11, that would have a devastating effect on consumer confidence and this could help drive public opinion to seek a negotiated trade settlement sooner rather than later.

But the American economic position would be much stronger. There would be many points in negotiations that America can refuse to concede on such as: unfreezing Chinese overseas bank assets, recognizing the occupation of Taiwan, turning over the Taiwanese government in Exile, handing over Taiwanese bank accounts and other Taiwanese overseas capital (such as the majority of their merchant fleet).

The US doesn't have to concede any points at all -save one: lifting the embargo. This would be in America's own interests anyway. As Chinese trade with America and Europe begin to return to normal, the West will be alot richer, and China will find itself endeavoring to recover the frozen and seized assets of both their own accounts and the accounts of the former nation of Taiwan. This may never happen.

Hmmmm.

This scenario looks quite attractive, and seems a better alternative than to commit US forces to fight to save Taiwan.

[SampanViking]

Sorry Fairthought, but I think your outline is far to dangerous for the West to attempt.

the key to any future action would be the circumstances arising that would prompt China to Invade in the first place. Without a full and complete understanding of these events and all the background diplomacy with which they would be associated, trying to discuss the aftermath is probably pointless.

I would however say, that; if I understand the Chinese concepts of National Power and configuration of Natural Power in any form, that the CCP's need to maintain order would; in the absence of ecconomic growth, be transferred to military might and direct itself at those nations that supported the West against China. In otherwords China would fully mobilise and attack Japan.

I also think you underestimate the effect of disrupting the world economy in this way. I believe it would be enough to trigger the biggest global recession of the past 200 years and that is before you take T Bond dumping into account.

All of this is just too unlikely. Contrary to the mood in this thread, cross straights relations are actually improving with a very real prospect of the KMT retaking power and moving closer to normalisation.

[EternalVigil]

I think what everyone is forgetting is that if any US bases or territories were attacked without provacation we would probably nuke the aggressor such as china or russia. Very dangerous scenerio. Mutual assured destruction is still and always will be US doctrine.

[MIGleader]

yeah right. i dont think most amercians would be happy to see the whole word get destroyed just over a small, insignifigant island. any politician who thinks mutually assured destruction is a good doctrine is obviosly too thick heade to think of the consequences.

[EternalVigil]

You apparently have no idea on how serious the US government takes security and national sovereignty. Trust me if China did have a surprise attack against say Guam or Hawaii or our bases in Japan with missles or whatever then the kid gloves would come off. Believe what you will but I know our policy.

[The_Zergling]

Pardon me for being blunt EternalVigil, but that's a stupid policy. Granted it may be true under the current Bush Administration because without any moral standing left, all America today has is military force, and it's all Bush knows to use. I can't tell whether or not you approve of it, though so kindly don't take this as an insult.

I thought FairThought's scenario was pretty well thought out, although the true economic consequences would probably be more severe than he hypothesized.

Realistically speaking though, any military invasion of Taiwan would definitely come after 2008, after Bush is out of office, and after the Olympics. The US foreign policy may or may not still be the idiotic "Kill everyone" policy it has now.

MiGLeader's post about Americans not willing to sacrifice the whole world over an insignificant island is sadly true. Anyone who hasn't been blinded by Bush's "Defending Democracy in Taiwan" propoganda can tell that Taiwan is only valuable to the US because of its location and animosity towards China.

Of course, whether or not it is insignificant to those living there is a completely different story. But I won't get into that.

I would predict that over the next few years the KMT slowly regains control over the Taiwanese government, and sometime after 2010 they secede Taiwan to China peacefully. After years of pro-China propoganda chances are dissent from the civilian population will be minimal. Of course it mostly depends on how the current KMT leader Mayor Ma conducts things. He is not a complete pro-China guy, it's hard to tell what he's really trying to do.

[EternalVigil]

If you notice I said nothing about Taiwan. MAD policy has always been there for US territories and states going back way before this current administration.

[PiSigma]

mayor Ma is not exactly pro-china, he's actually very anti-communist. He's just anti-independence, so mainland likes him more than Chen. note the like him more, but not actually love him. they did love lien chen, but that guy can't get elected. even when all this happens after 2008, the PLAN would have almost no chance if USN gets involved. and the economic impact of such an event would hurt the world a lot more than the military impact ever reach. by 2008, Bush would be out of office, so chances are who ever is in power in USA, would be a lot less trigger happy. china is not going to risk attacking US bases or terriories, that would provoke US too much, but if US interfers, they would attack the ships. economically, having the world's largest economic powers fight each other would basicaly kill off any economic development for the next 10 years.

[MIGleader]

MAD goes back to the day the russians made the bomb. many things have changed since then. china does not have 200 nuclear missles pointed at american cities. it has them pointed at taiwan.

Mad would destroy taiwan too. if you say MAd does not apply to taiwan, why did u bring the point up?

Mad...i wonder if iraq counts as a u.s territory

[EternalVigil]

I brought it up because people started saying things about attacking US bases etc. That would initiate a huge response if it were the territories I listed.

[darth sidious]

so you think the chinese will just back and watch the american freely useing korean or japanese base in the war.with the hate aginst Japan so high in china right now there will be protest to bomb the F***k out of japan .for korea all china needs to do is the unlesh KIM and it will be WWIII.

PS why cant a missile attackk aginst japan work PAc3 is not invinsible a mass missile attack will overwhelm it

[The_Zergling]

I'm not sure if this counts as hi-jacking the thread... if so, then I apologize and I will correct it...

darth sidious's post mentioned "hate against japan very high" in China... is that true? And for what reasons?

I certainly hope it's not because of the old "They refuse to apologize" claim again... can anyone enlighten me?

BTW MiGLeader... did you say China has 200 NUCLEAR missiles aimed at Taiwan?

[darth sidious]

massive protest last year ,boycating of jap goods,attack on jap shops, numerous website full of naiotnalism and hatred aginst japs,choseing german tech rather then jap for railway,

all signs the japs are not welcomed

[Roger604]

This is why China needs to have at least 200 DF-31A (aka DF-41) missiles. Our nuclear deterrent is just too weak.

From the POV of China, it is ridiculous that in any confrontation, America will almost certainly target mainland facilities, and China can't target American military targets in Japan / Korea and Guam for fear of nuclear attack on Chinese population centers?

Obviously, nobody knows how many DF-31A missiles we have (the project seems to have gone underground) but without them, we could be facing a fight with one hand tied behind our backs.

[SampanViking]

Hi Eternal Vigil

If you are responding to my comment about China mobilising and attacking Japan and thinking that means attacking US bases, then you have misunderstood what I have written.

I was responded to Fairthoughs well though out and presented post and pointing out that there was a serious downside he had not considered.

Fairthought produced a strategy in which the West switched from a Policy of passive Chinese containment to an Active one. My response to this was to point out that the implications of published Chinese Doctrines, specifically "The Configuration of National Power" makes this a potentially dangerous course of action.

The Configuration of National Power, (CNP) is something that you do not get in the West, it is not so much a philosophy (although it is that too) but an ability, and as such is a truly defining difference between China and the West. Put bluntly CNP is the ability of the Governemnt to completely dictate how the efforts of the state are directed. The first CNP was probably the Great Leap Forward, the Second - The Cultural Revolution, The Third - "Its good to get Rich". In short it is the methodology by which the CCP employs the State in order to grow National Power. Whilst it is questionable as to how far into the future; whilst the current configuration is maintained, the CCP would be able to effect a change of configuration, I have little doubt that it still can and would guess that it will contuinue to be able to do so for the next twenty or thirty years.

If the West implemented an active embargo and Blockade of China, seriously slowing, halting or reversing the countries ecconomic growth, then the current CNP would be deemed ineffective and a switch would be made to one that best countered the current threat to the continued growth of National Power. This would in my opinion, be a largely militaristic response.

China would not target the US or other Western Forces directly, as they were not already at war and China would not wish to start actual hostilities, until all other avenues of action were exhausted.

Instead China would target those nations that enable the Western Presence to Project Power against China and contain it. The targets would primarily be Japan and other countries hosting US bases in the region, in order to break those arrangement and thusly, a large part of the Wests ability to constrain China in the region.

Once this was achieved and the Wests policy demonstrated as ineffective, China would use the prospect of its reconfiguring CNP back to "Its good to Get rich" as the key bargaining chip in order to normalise relations.

I think you can see much of the current antagonisem towards Japan is an expression of this policy anyway, especially as it plays well with other regional neighbours (Both China and ROK have cancelled Presidential meetings with Japan at the current Asiean conference).

I hope I have written clearly and it makes sense

[EternalVigil]

Hi Eternal Vigil

If you are responding to my comment about China mobilising and attacking Japan and thinking that means attacking US bases, then you have misunderstood what I have written.

I was responded to Fairthoughs well though out and presented post and pointing out that there was a serious downside he had not considered.

Fairthought produced a strategy in which the West switched from a Policy of passive Chinese containment to an Active one. My response to this was to point out that the implications of published Chinese Doctrines, specifically "The Configuration of National Power" makes this a potentially dangerous course of action.

The Configuration of National Power, (CNP) is something that you do not get in the West, it is not so much a philosophy (although it is that too) but an ability, and as such is a truly defining difference between China and the West. Put bluntly CNP is the ability of the Governemnt to completely dictate how the efforts of the state are directed. The first CNP was probably the Great Leap Forward, the Second - The Cultural Revolution, The Third - "Its good to get Rich". In short it is the methodology by which the CCP employs the State in order to grow National Power. Whilst it is questionable as to how far into the future; whilst the current configuration is maintained, the CCP would be able to effect a change of configuration, I have little doubt that it still can and would guess that it will contuinue to be able to do so for the next twenty or thirty years.

If the West implemented an active embargo and Blockade of China, seriously slowing, halting or reversing the countries ecconomic growth, then the current CNP would be deemed ineffective and a switch would be made to one that best countered the current threat to the continued growth of National Power. This would in my opinion, be a largely militaristic response.

China would not target the US or other Western Forces directly, as they were not already at war and China would not wish to start actual hostilities, until all other avenues of action were exhausted.

Instead China would target those nations that enable the Western Presence to Project Power against China and contain it. The targets would primarily be Japan and other countries hosting US bases in the region, in order to break those arrangement and thusly, a large part of the Wests ability to constrain China in the region.

Once this was achieved and the Wests policy demonstrated as ineffective, China would use the prospect of its reconfiguring CNP back to "Its good to Get rich" as the key bargaining chip in order to normalise relations.

I think you can see much of the current antagonisem towards Japan is an expression of this policy anyway, especially as it plays well with other regional neighbours (Both China and ROK have cancelled Presidential meetings with Japan at the current Asiean conference).

I hope I have written clearly and it makes sense



I understand the policy clearly as does the US government and other european democracies. Yes China and Korea(lets face it chinas puppet state especially North Korea) and weaker asian powers are using the Yasukuni visits by Japans PM as an excuse to sour relations with the Japanese. This is all between the Japanese,China, and other asian nations and not a US issue. The US could care less about this shrine and thats the reason we want the Japanese and chinese to repair their relationship for the sake of the global economy. However, Japan is not Taiwan and the US would never allow it to be attacked militarily without a huge response. I will list a few reasons and you all can debate them. I will be out of the US and in Guam ironicly for about 6 days and wont be near an internet connected PC. I will respond when I return.

1. Japan is a truely successful asian democracy, and it is not Chinese territory like Taiwan. An attack on a thriving democracy would be an act of war in the eyes of the western democracies. Especially the US and UK.
2. It is the second biggest economy in the world in terms of GDP and overall wealth.
3. We have defense pact with the Japanese just like with NATO.It also has a navy superior to the chinese and it is a military ally of the US and the EU.
4. We have large technology transfers to Japan for civilian and military use and we must protect our assets.

There you go see you all in a week.

[MIGleader]

china and japan are very tense at the moments, but no war willl occur. maybe some breif skirmishes in the sea ways will happen here and there, but no war. the two nations simply have too much economic interest in eachother, especially japan. both nations are trying to attack eachother politicall by accasations of intrusions and secret weapons. but no shooting war is likely.

were getting tather off topic, by bringing japan in,so lets steer back to taiwan.

[Kampfwagen]

That idea about the Prostitutes really made me laugh. This just goes to show how in-probable things you hear on the internet really are.

[20mmcannon]

If China is forced into a position where she must utilize force to solve the Taiwan problem, she would already have the US tied up in other conflicts before hand so that military intervention would be very unpopular. The current War of Terror is a prime example of how the US can be lured into a position where there can be no happy ending. I'm not sure if Bin-Laden has read Sun Tzu, but his strategy of making the US look like a fool on international stage would make Sun Tzu proud. The US should adopt a more prudent foreign policy and preserve our military strength for when we really need it. (EX. When we discover Bin-Laden's secret base in Antarctica where he has raised an army of clones of himself to take over the world; or when aliens come to destroy us all.)

As for the China atking Japan idea, no way China would ever endanger herself so. It is much more likely that instead of directly attacking Japan to get at the US bases, they would employ indirect methods, such as massive jamming of communications or a cyber attack, so they can put those bases out of action without provoking massvie response from the US. After that Taiwan would be "easy".

As for EternalVigil's argument, sure the US would love to help Japan as long as they continue to be the US's ally. After all Japan is the primary bastion of American power in Asia. But the problem comes when she had her military tied up in other parts of the world - something she should aviod at all costs. It is like Sun Tzu said "If one's enemy is strong, divide him."

[T1000]

only 7 days? why only 7 days? china must still be very afraid of america and american intervention. furthermore, why don't you ask the americans if war can be won in 7 days? It is more like 7 years later china will still be stuck in Taiwan. similarly like in iraq, and vietnam.
drunker homer's poll, failed to reflect, and ask the taiwanese population. what if your family member, especially children and senior parents were killed by china's bombs. would you take arms and kill the PLA soldiers? i think 100 percent of taiwanese would say yes.
lets do the math. 200,000 PLA soldiers deployed along with equipment, which may cost 100 to 150 billion per year, times 10 years of occupation of Taiwan. which comes to over 1 trillion. Taiwan has no oil, gold, or any kind of natural resources. Would china want to spend 1 trillion to save face??
a more likely war would be in the middle east, were china sends 5 million troops to secure oil fields in the middle east and goes to war with america over it. Now, that would be a likely war.

[Obcession]

T1000, no politics playing here, and I warn you beforehand, don't act like Vince, especially in this thread. Otherwise, welcome.

As to the article, it's well written, but has its flaws. I personally think PLA paratroopers and marines should be used scattered across the island to take/destroy key military installations like SAM batteries and such. Then once they are taken, they would tell the PLA operations HQ that it's captured, and by 1-2 hours after the deployment of troops, the ones that were not captured would suffer a missile barrage first, and then air strikes. Meanwhile SF units try to attack and capture the enemy HQ. after 3-4 hours of initial deployment, amphibious landings will occur, regardless of success of previous actions.

[PiSigma]

T1000, you are forgetting that fact that taiwan to mainland china is different from vietnam/iraq to USA. USA is going out of her way to attack another foreign nation for oil and power projection. mainland china in this case is completely different, it is fighting for national unity, because if they can't get taiwan under control, xinjiang and tibet are going to be gone pretty soon too. and it won't cost china as much to occupy taiwan as US in occupying iraq. chinese labor is cheap. after the initial landing, hundreds of thousands of extra recuits (and easy to find, lots of volunteers) could be send over. and after a few years, since most of the population on the island wouldn't care about it anymore. since half of the population either want unification or don't want independence. so they can live with the CCP.

[The_Zergling]

That's the problem with discussing Taiwan and military strategy, because anything will have something to do with politics...

I actually think T1000's post was pretty relevant to a potential "7 days" strategy, because the actions of a civilian population would greatly influence the success rate of a potential Chinese strike...

I certainly support staying away from politics if it gets to pointless country bashing, but the point is that politics has a lot to do with military strategy and the outcome of a potential scenario...

Personally I think T1000's post was pretty relevant to the topic... regardless of how the old Vince acted, I believe this post was important because it accurately depicts a possible civilian response to the hypothetical invasion in the first post that would render the take-over moot...

Huh, I noticed PiSigma's post after I finished posting... while I believe it is certainly true that China would occupy Taiwan much easier than the US could Iraq, it wouldn't really make people feel better about the deaths of loved ones, therefore the animosity towards the Chinese invasion would still be pretty high... maybe 20 years after it happens people won't care as much, but it certainly doesn't make the initial job of invading and governmental transition easier...

[MIGleader]

lets just say a peacefull surender is the best way. no one wants to fight, and no one dies this way.
t1000 is clearly an uneducated fellow thinking china will want to go to iraq to fight america, his post had no relevance either to this topic or reality.

[The_Zergling]

With all due respect to you Migleader, I disagree. To me the main point of T1000's post was that you can't win over the hearts and minds of people if you bomb then at the same time, that is why the US failed to secure Iraq, and that is why he says that China would also have a hard time taking over Taiwan easily if it used coercive force. I believe it is relevant to the post because it is a counter-argument to the ability of China to take over Taiwan in 7-days.

At least it makes a point about the problems China would have to face if it took over Taiwan with military force by comparing things to Iraq...

I also disagree that a peaceful surrender is the best way. To me having Taiwan go independent is just as viable an option (Save for China's "face") nobody gets killed either and everybody gets to keep on living their lives without the potential death and destruction an invasion would bring... but hey, if the Taiwanese people want to peacefully surrender that would work too, I'd have nothing to say against it if a significant majority agrees to it.

[darth sidious]

But the taiwanese also domt do sicuide car bombs and such

I highly doubt that there will be serious resistance even so the ccp has many years of experince in puting down such rebellion given taiwan is so urbanized the insurgent will have no where to hide except in the slums of the city an area witch will be easily contraled

[The_Zergling]

Actually I believe that urban environments are perfect for guerilla tactics... buildings tend to provide great cover, especially for snipers...

I don't think the CCP's experience in putting down resistance would help them much here, Taipei is a very different environment compared to China's past crackdown locations...

I have no real military experience, but I'm an avid airsoft player, and I believe that a lot of buildings tend to give the defender a solid advantage if the attacker does not destroy all the buildings outright with airstrikes or tanks. (China is not likely to destroy real estate if possible)

Also, guerillas don't necessarily have to fight force with force, a main point of guerilla warfare is to win over the civilian population... it's much harder to contain a huge city of angry people than it is to kill a group of insurgents...

True, Taiwanese don't use car bombs, and in fact I tend to believe that the majority of Taiwanese people would NOT resort to lethal means of protest against a Chinese invasion...

What I DO believe is that there would be fierce animosity depending on how an invasion was conducted and that would hamper Chinese efforts, unless everybody just puts their hands up and does everything meekly and quietly, which is an improbability.

[darth sidious]

Quite the oppsite large cities are easily contraled once conquered this is not a battle of armies like stalingrade

if a goood propaganda effort is conducted the taiwanese can be convinced that by joining china they will become part of a strong nation also if the civilian casulities are few the resistance will be lighter

PS ccp has quelled rebellion in large cities before

[The_Zergling]

OK, I'm misinformed on the CCP's experience taking over big cities, and I concede the point.

But how smoothly this would go depends on how many civilian casualties there would be... so I guess the question could possibly be :

"What is the best way for China to take over Taiwan while minimizing civilian casualties?"

(Obviously not fighting will work, but let's put that aside for discussion's sake)

To me, a Taiwanese resistance would be very different from Stalingrad, as you stated, but I don't understand why large cities are easily controlled?

The reason it's different is because of the size of Taiwan's Army (and Taipei) and the very important fact that Taiwan unlike the USA does not allow citizens to bear arms, which would greatly undermine any resistance efforts...

Could you explain why larger cities are easily controlled?

[darth sidious]

insurgent need to blend in with the people to surive its easier to seperate them in cities then country side

vital resource like food and water can be easily denied if an uprising is mounted its also easier to put down.eg warsaw uprising and the effective contral by japanese of large cities .in county side they can scater and hide but ther is no such thing in cities

[PiSigma]

i think that's where you are wrong darth. if there's rebel forces in taipei for example, the fighters would be the locals, they can blend in perfectly. they would know the buildings better. and how can you stop them from getting food and water when they can just change their outfits walk down the street and go to the closest super market to pick up milk and bread, and some coffee. in a city they can just as easily scatter and hide... a large city can be a maze if you dont know it well.

[darth sidious]

:nono: go away vince lee!!!!!!!:mad:

pisigma

my friend your are think about urban battle bewten armies in witch your are perfectly correct city gives great defence bonus.if rationing is introduced where will they get the extra food ??? in country side the insurgent can ambush useing their superior knoldge of the area in cities they will be quickly suronded if they try that.if they mount a large up rising the chinese can simply burn down the whole street blok and kill those inside .in the country side they can spread their message where the autheriots are not strong . in city mass meeting will result in a police crak down

[The_Zergling]

my friend your are think about urban battle bewten armies in witch your are perfectly correct city gives great defence bonus.if rationing is introduced where will they get the extra food ??? in country side the insurgent can ambush useing their superior knoldge of the area in cities they will be quickly suronded if they try that.if they mount a large up rising the chinese can simply burn down the whole street blok and kill those inside .in the country side they can spread their message where the autheriots are not strong . in city mass meeting will result in a police crak down

I don't understand why being in a city would put the insurgents at a disadvantage when they have a complete understanding of the environment whereas the invaders are in (as PiSigma put it) a maze. Have you even been to Taipei before? (Sorry, this is kind of ad hominem, but my point is that there are MANY potential places to hide without getting surrounded)

What's more, if the Chinese burn a whole street block down what will happen is that even MORE Taiwanese will be pissed off, which will effectively undermine righteous authority. Cracking down will only make you more enemies, because if China didn't invade Taiwan in the first place none of this would have to happen.

Also, in the countryside (I do not know if you are referring to Aboriginals or Farmers) I believe the farmers could care less who's in control as long as their lives don't change. The aboriginals on the other hand aren't exactly pleased with the government but at least they have their own representatives in the government.

Note that even the Japanese had a hard time while fighting the Aboriginals in World War 2, what makes you think that the Chinese would have a cakewalk? (Granted there are technological differences, but not so big to degate the advantages the knowledge of the terrain the the Aboriginals have. Taiwan's mountains would be a bitch to attack from the POV of an attacking force)

My point is that you simplify things too much, giving the Chinese more credit than realistically possible...

[PiSigma]

burning down a city block would be unwise... very likely to kill innocents. and that means more people will join the resistance. and you don't want that. rationing is also not that smart since it will make the locals think fondly of the previous government. and you can't tell a rebel from a innocent civilian since they dress the same, speak the same. not like the rebel will carry his M16 to the super market.

[darth sidious]

burning down city is a bit too extrem i agree

but its easier for the insurgent to spreed their message in the countryside then city more place to hide ( chins main source of support is in the south eg country side)in the city police will show up rather quickly to make ambush effective

I never said insurgents can not live in cities just the country side is better

the japs took care of the Aboriginals by killing them all and guss what they were most effective in the high lands


PS burning down cities is an effective way too kill the defender as demonstrated by the warsaw uprising



PIsigma please ban vince aka t-1000

[PiSigma]

killing everyone that oppose them is not the answer. it will just creat friction with the local population. and that's not something PLA wants. their goal is to peacefully control the locals. and gassing and killing all aboriginals is called genocide, it's illegal under international law. so i still think it will be a pain in the arse for PLA to try to take a major city like taipei

[The_Zergling]

but its easier for the insurgent to spreed their message in the countryside then city more place to hide ( chins main source of support is in the south eg country side)in the city police will show up rather quickly to make ambush effective

I never said insurgents can not live in cities just the country side is better

the japs took care of the Aboriginals by killing them all and guss what they were most effective in the high lands



Actually darth sidious I would say you are flat-out WRONG when you say that China's main support would be in the south, which proves that you probably ought to learn more about Taiwan if you're interested about this...

The south was the most supportive of President Chen... (If chins was supposed to mean Chen then I'm sorry that I misread you... which obviously mean you should ignore the comment above if that's what you meant.)

But regarding the "japs took care of the Aboriginals" I'd say you are either grossly misinformed or your definition of "killing them all" is different from mine. To my knowledge there are still many aboriginals living in Taiwan (Yes, they do exist, I have been to several of their villages) and the Japanese never were able to kill them all.

BTW, how can you even tell T-1000 is Vince if you don't know his IP if you're not a mod?

[darth sidious]

about vince

extrem hatred aginst china puls writing style same as on the easybord forum eg taiwan country etc pipe bombs chinese goverment mafia etc

sory about spelling mistake is"chen"

after the japs came in 1894 the strongest resistance is mounted by the Aboriginals more so then the chinese

also japs killed large numders of them just the stop the attacks including destorying entire villages similar to what they did in china

[Roger604]

The fact is that MOST of Taipei supports the KMT over the DPP because the DPP is trying to de-sinicize Taiwan.

Just arm the KMT supporters to put down any DPP insurgency. KMT is weaker in cities other than Taipei, but if Taipei is secured, at least there's a foothold and the rest of the island can be secured patiently.

[Kampfwagen]

Now I am no political or military strategist expert, but this is what I think.

They should have PLA Special Forces, not like the S.W.A.T style most people think of, but simple plain clothes undercover-type armed only with Cell Phones. Preferably, they should be calling using code-words. Calling to 'relatives', like a member of the army posing as a relative over the phone and a list of code-words disguised in a simple conversation. That way, they could tell about fleet strength, locations of SAM sites, information from individuals in the armed forces (buy a couple of rounds 'round the bar and people will be spilling their guts like it was a slasher flick) and simple as that. I have some intresting information from a friend of mine who works in the armed forces.

As far as sabotage? Nothing fancy at all. Allthough by no means a fancy or simplistic way of doing it, one could simply and conviently in an airport spill some fuel, light a ciggerete, and boom. You got a fire. Of course, it's crude and probably whoever is involved would get in trouble for it or get blown up or the fire would be spoted, but if it worked would certantly make quite a bit of chaos that could not be made up for in a few days before an invasion. He who controlls the skies and the seas owns the fight. And owning the air isint something to sneeze at.

After that? Simply a matter of sytematicaly destroying the enemy, which China seems more than capable of doing. Then installing controll and order, though through democracy. Imagine how insane it might get if there was a US funded Tiwanese resistance!

[bobcat]

Go somewhere else to post this kind of crab....This is a military forum and this kind of politically motivated spamming is strictly forbidden

[FriedRiceNSpice]

**************
Before I go to that, would you care to tell me whats contained within that site? Is it the Indonesian thing?

[adeptitus]

Asia Times publish articles from freelancers and guest writers of dubious credibility. I've read so much junk from them to not take their articles too seriously. If anyone still remembers the old intellectual capital site (now gone), their material was far better. If any of you are interested in starting a business, try running a web site like atimes.com and just pay guest writers $50 or $100 per article, then charge $ for advertising. After a couple of years you'd prolly start making $$.

As for ROC army being pro-KMT, I'd like to point out that the ROC military is drafted from all citizens:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conscription#Taiwan_.28ROC.29
The Republic of China has had mandatory military service for all males since 1949. Females from the outlying islands of Fuchien must also serve. In October 1999, the mandatory service was shortened from 24 months to 22 months. From January 2004, the mandatory service was shortened futher. At this point, the duration of mandatory military service is 18 months. Beginning Jan 1, 2006, the duration will decrease to 16 months and by 2008, it will be shortened to 12 months. ROC nationals with Overseas Chinese status are exempt from service.

A common misconception is that the KMT is pro-unification and pro-PRC. The KMT supports maintaining the status quo at present (to get the swing votes) and can be considered pro-Chinese. However being pro-Chinese is not the same as pro-PRC or pro-CCP. Coming from a KMT military family, we were taught that the KMT/ROC stands to preserve the Chinese identity & culture while Mao & the CCP is a destructive force (cultural revolution). Of course, a lot of it is propaganda, but it's not like the folks over on PRC's side didn't get a healthy dose of it too. hehehe.