Current Limitations of the PLAN

[IDonT]

The US has recently released a 77 page document regarding the PLAN.
http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/57462.pdf
They have addressed several key limitations that the PLAN still needs to address. They include:

1.)Limited operations capability in distant waters
2.)Joint operations
3.)C4ISR (command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance)
4.)Long-range surveillance and targeting systems (really impacts the EFFECTIVE range of PLAN's anti-ship missiles)
5.)Anti-air warfare (AAW)
6.)Antisubmarine warfare (ASW)
7.)Mine countermeasures(MCM)
8.)Logistics

The question is, what steps or probable steps the PLAN need to do to address this problem. Please note the fact that more glamorous naval capabilities, such as fielding a carrier group is not one of them.

[renmin]

The US has recently released a 77 page document regarding the PLAN.
http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/57462.pdf
They have addressed several key limitations that the PLAN still needs to address. They include:

1.)Limited operations capability in distant waters
2.)Joint operations
3.)C4ISR (command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance)
4.)Long-range surveillance and targeting systems (really impacts the EFFECTIVE range of PLAN's anti-ship missiles)
5.)Anti-air warfare (AAW)
6.)Antisubmarine warfare (ASW)
7.)Mine countermeasures(MCM)
8.)Logistics

The question is, what steps or probable steps the PLAN need to do to address this problem. Please note the fact that more glamorous naval capabilities, such as fielding a carrier group is not one of them.These are all quite true. China's navy cant really operate in blue waters though the PRC is trying to correct this problem. China's AAW is also low. the PLAN is still a little small in size so there is still improvment on the number of ships and submarines. The traditonal reson for the navy was to operate near China's borders to defend the country from attack.

[MIGleader]

i would have to agree with all except the targeting and aaw. the aaw used to be a big handicap, but with the use of grizzlys, s-300s, gadflys, annd hq-15s, its really not so mvuh of a weakness. the targeting...the helix is a good helicopters, reliable and with good sensors. the new plan radars are pretty impressive too. its just that the plan lacks the ability to coordinate operations.

[tphuang]

actually, I would agree with most of the above except for AAW. I do think that with the induction of 052C and 051C, it's a sign that AAW in PLAN is actually becoming one of the strength in PLAN.

If anything, the fact that 094 hasn't entered PLAN is probably a bigger problem, since 092 doesn't really provide a credible deterrence.

[Sea Dog]

If anything, the fact that 094 hasn't entered PLAN is probably a bigger problem, since 092 doesn't really provide a credible deterrence.

Agreed. However DF-31 is a credible deterrence. And currently in service. And if I'm not mistaken, PLAN is focusing more heavily on 093 as a first step to the development of 094. This would make sense as 094 basic designs are speculated to be similar to the 093's basic design, with the additional space for the JL-2's.

[MIGleader]

actually, I would agree with most of the above except for AAW. I do think that with the induction of 052C and 051C, it's a sign that AAW in PLAN is actually becoming one of the strength in PLAN.

If anything, the fact that 094 hasn't entered PLAN is probably a bigger problem, since 092 doesn't really provide a credible deterrence.

according to strategy center, the type 94 has already been launched and joind the 92. i dont know how credible this is, since their were few details.

[tphuang]

according to strategy center, the type 94 has already been launched and joind the 92. i dont know how credible this is, since their were few details.
it has been launched, but it's still ongoing a lot of sea test. Looking back at China's past nuclear sub developments, this could take a long long time. JL-2 has been reported to have been tested on 092, so that's a good news at least. The estimation is that 094 will commission probably in 2008. Until then, 092 is all we got.

[bd popeye]

IDon't, You my friend have started an excellent thread. All of us could learn something from this.:) Excellent response's all. Very realistic.

As you guys may know I am suspect the PLAN lacks in the area of training. I think training in a navy is very important. Its one thing to have modern weapons. Another to know how to use them. Modern weapons systems can't be operated by indivuals that have limited training in using them. Therefore training is esential. Training should include, firefighting, damage control & firts aid for all hands. The operation of weapon systems on real targets with live fire. Operating simulators. Wargames and manuvers with other nations.

I think personnel is also a problem . I think it was MIGleader that posted in another thread that the 167(?) was manned mostly by officers:confused: I don't understand why enlisted men can't be trained to do the jobs on the 167. Other Navies operate this way. Strong minded, well trained carreer NCO's are the backbone of any military. I think that is a direction the PLAN needs to move to. I know from reading this forum that there millions of voulnteers for the PLA forces yearly.

I would also know how well the PLAN can do underway replenishments(unrep) & vertical replenishments(vertrep). Can they do a vertrep? But before they can be proficent in unreps's and vertrep's they must develp a logistical system that will work. This may require establishing bases outside of the PRC and using civillian assets. A feat that may be difficult to accomplishment.

Yes the PLAN does have it's short commings. But you can't build a blue water navy over night. They have come a long way in the last few years. In the future when the PLAN overcomes it's shortcommings it will be a force to be reckoned with.

[MIGleader]

for right now, the plan can accomplish its job. its mainly a green water defence navy, and can adequately assert china's claims in the peripheral regions. the plan has also been rather patient with its growth, despite a potential to grow much faster, especially seeing how theyve held off on a ccarrier till now. this allows more time for adaption and training.

[bd popeye]

for right now, the plan can accomplish its job. its mainly a green water defence navy, and can adequately assert china's claims in the peripheral regions. the plan has also been rather patient with its growth, despite a potential to grow much faster, especially seeing how theyve held off on a ccarrier till now. this allows more time for adaption and training.

MIGleader, you are 100% correct. The PLAN is very capble in the waters close to the PRC. As long as any conflict stays in their region they will be able to fight for a time until their assets are exhausted. Fact.

The best way to build the blue water navy is slowly like MIGleader suggest. It takes times and years of training to get it right. I'm sure the PLAN in time will be able to do this. Don't be impatient guys is this "instant I want it now" world. The PLAN will someday be a great Navy. It just takes time.

[Gollevainen]

Well As for the taking time in building up a strong naval precense is quite obvious and im sure PLAN staff knows this stuff...But its totally different thing to choose rigth path tho dominance. Time is one thing, doing the rigth choices are another and worst cases time can be the most cripling factor when you notice that some big and expensive way to achieve something turns to be complete waste of time and money. Soviet Unions carrier plans are great example of this. PLAN is now in the edge of those decisions and slow and carefull way to handle things isent automaticly the best and rigth way...
This is specially tru with carriers. Im conviced that china should go in for soon as possiple, finish up the Varyag and begin to introduce naval aviation lagacy for future generations. Soviets tryed the crawl-walk-run accpect and it proved that in those years were complete waste. At the end, VMF was left with in state of learning and trying that didnt much required decades of slow introduction. Those mistakes that they have made with Kuznetsov could have been done in the fiftyes with out the extensive 'practicing' with Kievs and Moskvas... I severly fear that china migth make a same mistake and miss the chnage of life with Varyag. No unused russian carrers would be awaible in bargain prices in near future any longer, and some time, they just have to make the decission, and no pre-introduction can effectively parshe out all the beginers mistakes. Learn by doing!

Also, about training and conscription system. I have to agree with Popeye, NCO doing long time service are the key element in operating extensive equipment and its also main down fall of conscription armyes. USSR suffered it, And we finns do it also. In conscription system, NCOs are merely better trained service mens that serve bit longer than normal crew, but still enters reserve along with them. In finnish army, there are short time servicing former consrcript NCOs whit year- or two deal (they are the far most brickiest type of people existing, total human carbage...sorry, but thats what htey were, at least in my regiment:( ) Some how all career soldiers are typed as officers and requiring extensive academic training...

[darth sidious]

Major weakness lack of effective asw may be improved if we buy the fearless class destoryer sort of ok in the past as the enemy is Taiwan but will be in the future

[MIGleader]

fearless? doesnt ring a bell. there was a fearless class assaut ship from the falklands, and a fearless class from ww2.

currently, chinas neighbors are very weak with submarines. but thats going to change with japan, sout korea, and india. china better hurrry to develop advanced sonars.

[darth sidious]

fearless= Udaloy in Russian I think not sure you can ask Akula

glory=slava

[MIGleader]

are u talking about the improved udaloy that ukraine is offering, or a udaloy II basic?

the udaloy is pretty good at asw, but as past events show, the chinese can build anything better than the russians if they put their minds to it. buying russian weapons is a sign of laziness.

[darth sidious]

they can be used to boost numders like the sove/052b also china does not have much experince in builting large asw ships buy a small number then built your oewn equilvent like the sove and 052b

ps whats up with that deal any news on the udaloy

[MIGleader]

there was news that ukraine was offering to build this baby for any customer
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/Number1azn365/3_95963.jpg

not a bad deal. good sams, ashm, and asw. not to mention something the ukraininas never showed before: stealth.

i thin china's better off building its own asw cruser, but perhaps a single ship ordered from ukraine would seve as a good example. the ship ought to cost around 800-900 million $, and would take 5 years to build.

[crobato]

Yes the PLAN does have it's short commings. But you can't build a blue water navy over night. They have come a long way in the last few years. In the future when the PLAN overcomes it's shortcommings it will be a force to be reckoned with.

The question is why? Why do you want to make a blue water force? You don't need to grab Taiwan with a blue water force, and China does not appear to have any other military ambition other than that. How does a blue water force benefit China? What benefit does it get to play global cop? No signs China wants to do this, better lay that burden to another country's taxpayer base instead. Will a blue water navy help to feed your unborn billions in the future?

[PiSigma]

the reason that china wants a blue water navy is not to become the next world police, but to ensure resource and energy supply lines. china is becoming more and more dependent on resource and oil imports, and in order to make sure nothing goes wrong from middle east or africa to china, blue water navy is needed.

[crobato]

Yes but it would be better for that case if China develops intercontinental routes for such instead like trans siberian pipelines. Who are you trying to protect your water supply lines from? If you want to go to war with your main trading partners like the US or Japan your economy is goosed anyway. You can't be a blue water navy without a huge military budget and these kinds of budgets are at the expense of social programs that can be better put to use to assure domestic stability.

[MIGleader]

a blue water navy has several variations. theres the american blue water navy, which can go any when in the world to fight any war anytime on call. and theirs the indian blue water navy, which is basically a regional navy with a carrier. i think china's blue water navy is going to range closer to indias, to cover the area as far as guam, perhaps a semisphere like that. such a fleet would not need to be huge and expensive. but multiple fleets would be needed, and the plan would need considerable restructuring.

[crobato]

The thing about the Indian Navy is that it has very little competition in its area. If you put a fleet with a composition like this into the East China sea, it's not going to hold. Small carrier with a small complement of fighters, a small number of destroyers and supporting ships, you could barely defend the carrier from a determined air and under sea attack.

It depends on you if you want a Navy of show or go. You want it to be a jack of all trades and a master of nothing, or be at least be a master of something if that something is defensive and green water. You got to pick something you want to be and then excel at it, and not disperse your resources into different directions. The Japanese Navy, for instance, picked to be a defensive one, and they excel at it. If the PLAN is smart, they should focus on dominance on North, East and South China seas before you would even bother with blue water. Let's add to that fact that there are many gas and oil reserves under the China seas continental shelf, and those are going are to be flash points in the future.

[bd popeye]

The question is why? Why do you want to make a blue water force? You don't need to grab Taiwan with a blue water force, and China does not appear to have any other military ambition other than that. How does a blue water force benefit China? What benefit does it get to play global cop? No signs China wants to do this, better lay that burden to another country's taxpayer base instead. Will a blue water navy help to feed your unborn billions in the future?

crobato, Hi there. I'm bd popeye. I asked posted that statement.

First off I must let you know that I'm not Chinese. I'm a retired USN sailor(20 years) that just can't give up his intrest in the navies of the world. I love Asian cultures and people . In fact my ex-wife is from the Philippines.

Why a blue water navy? So the PRC can project it's power in the Pacific and Indian ocean. And as the PRC grows economically it can protect the shipping lanes.

As far as Tiawain is concerned the PRC may not need a blue water Navy for that. But if it did have to contend with the US and Japan in such a conflict thye would need a much larger, more mobile and potent force.

Feeding unborn in the future??:confused: I see protecting commere with a blue water navy as a positive for the PRC. It can only help the PRC grow even greater economically.

This comment is interesting and certianly directed at the US..""What benefit does it get to play global cop? No signs China wants to do this, better lay that burden to another country's taxpayer base instead""..

Well the USN has been deploying it's sailors, airmne soilders and Marines worldwide for over 100 years. I see no sign that it will stop anytime soon.

[crobato]

which is precisely the point. In this world, there is only room for one global blue water navy. If you have two or more, it's certain to create friction and rivalries that would eventually. China is content to let the US play global cop, let the US pay for securing world peace while other countries get the benefit of such peace. That is a cynical view of things but I tend to be a cynic.

If the US needs more money to finance any potential wartime ventures, China buys more US treasury bonds. Like they did during the Iraq war, and in return, US returns its gratitude to China subtletly by allowing Chinese firms to participate in reconstruction projects and arms contracts like buying patrol boats and guns for the newly constituted Iraqi armed forces.

Much of the same argument can be said about Japan. Japan's economy is very dependent on its sealane lifelines. But Japan is content to let the US do its protection and pay its dues such as purchasing more Treasury Bonds. Japan is the leading owner of US bonds and no surprise, China is no. 2, and both lead far away from the rest of the pack.

Worldwide the US did deploy its sailors and marines for over 100 years, but not in the capacity of global cop, which was Britain's role until the end of WWII. Certainly the US conquest of Hawaii, the Philippines, Guam, Cuba and Puerto Rico via the Spanish-American War cannot be considered a global cop action. The US played its role of global cop after WWII and the sunset of the British empire as the only country still standing that could stand up to the Soviet Union. Pre-WWII, US politics are very much conservative and isolationist (it's your problem not ours), the kind that Pat Buchanan now echoes. You only need to look at some people like Joseph Kennedy (the senior Kennedy) which reflects that sort of sentiment, and why the US came quite late in WWII (end of 1941, when German and Japanese aggression began as early as 1937).

The reason why China and Japan cannot play regional cop is because of bad blood. If you have two members of one family fighting one another, you need a mediator or third person, preferably someone distant and out of the family. Naturally someone from the outside has to come in as cop and mediator, and that role has fallen to the US.

It is not in the security of China to fight the US, everyone knows that. And neither is it in the interest and security of the US to fight China. Aside from posturing, everyone knows the US and China is now too interdependent. Both countries are also politically agile and flexible enough to prevent any need to come to blows because there will be no lack of peaceful alternatives.

A large developing blue seas Chinese fleet can easily be miscontrued and that will start an arms race in the region. Soon the Japanese and Korean navies will all buff up, and ten to twenty years from now, it may reach to a point, the global cop may not have big enough muscles both military and financial to stop our future buffed up Chinese, Japanese and Korean fleets from having a go for control of all three China seas, its sealanes and vital natural resources.

Likewise, a withdrawal of US fleets from the Pacific region will also create an arms race. The Japanese will feel that they no longer have the US umbrella protecting them and will start to build up, while the Chinese will think that without the US, which served as a cap on Japanese military ambitions, there will be no cap to the Japanese, and will build up. Caught in between the two are the Koreans, who will likewise react with their own build up. And when each of them will try to protect the so called lifeblood sealanes---which are often one and the same for all these countries, you may be headed for a collision point. Another collision point is that these countries are also disputing oil and fishing rights on certain territories and islands and all three show no signs of compromising. When you get into a situation when the world starts running out of oil reserves (which may get critical in the next 20 years), the friction point on underwater oil reserves will start to rise.

[KlubMarcus]

The PLAN is going to get their butts kicked by the US Navy because they aren't used to combat away from their ports. Can you imagine fighting the US Navy while having to shuttle back and forth to your home ports? The PLAN is going to run out of supply ships and useful piers after a few days.

[darth sidious]

simple country bashing is not allowed

where did you get the idea that the plan will fight far from china any ways

may I remind you that taiwan is very close to china

[Gollevainen]

Dart you got a point...country brashing is strickly forbidden. So don't get agitated...and klubmarcus...Now i strongly suggest you go and read the forum rules before posting anything...my temper is rising....