Russian military base in china planned!!!

[Gollevainen]

Russia May Open Military Supply Base in China — Defense Official

from: MosNews (http://www.mosnews.com/news/2005/12/01/ruschinabase.shtml)


Russia is considering establishing a military supply base in China, a Russian military official was quoted by Interfax as saying.

“In particular, talks on setting up a base of spare parts for Russian military products are being held with China,” Alexander Denisov, first deputy director of the Federal Military-Technical Cooperation Service, said.

The Federal Military-Technical Cooperation Service is constantly working on improving the efficiency of its structure, he said.

“The changing situation on the arms market requires making necessary corrections to the complicated system of military technical cooperation and using new forms and methods of work actively,” Denisov said.

According to him, Russia is engaged in military-technical cooperation with 82 states.

“By the way, the U.S. maintains military-technical cooperation with 100 countries, France with 29, Germany and Great Britain with 26 each,” he said.

In September Russia and China held major war games that were perceived by many experts as a first step to creation of a new military bloc, opposed NATO.


Now is this remarkable? To my knowlidge, not even Soviet Union had bases in china during the short marriage of these two powers. Could it be so that China will allow it, or is this report solely russian speculation. And what does it tells about the nature of sino-russian military ties?...and what does it implicates about Russian emerging back to the superpower club?

It raises guestions, does it?

[Mr_C]

This is interesting. Well just skimming through this very superficial report..i guess there can be several things that motivates such a move.

One is that if this is true the Russians and the CHinese trust each other enough and such a strategic partnership at this level may have implications aimed at the USA for dominance over asia, especially central asia where both the Chinese and Russians have common strategic interests. There is not much militarily tactical advantage in placing a base in China for teh Russians because they can pretty much already get to teh places that they want already.

Secondly, it is very possible that it will make Chinese and Russian military intergration much more effective for future co-operation. Also it is a good way to advertise any equipment they wanna sell to the PLA. And also it will be a very symbolic gesture of their trust and co-operation in each other.

This move is unlikely to be aimed at the EU because both Russia and CHina are much more interested in co-operation with the EU, and there r members in teh EU who also feel the need to detach themselves from US domination over their affairs. SO in a way Russia, China and the EU all have something in common. That is the reason y the EU-China relationship at the moment is very good but at the same time contradicatory in certain areas such as the arms embargo, coz the EU still sees value and a economic requirement to do the USA's bidding, and the EU is simply not strong enough yet to challenge teh USA in certain areas.

Anyway that is my super quick analysis of the situation coz i gotta go to bed coz there is this called work tommorrow

cheers

[Fairthought]

I do not see a budding alliance to counter NATO's power. Why counter NATO anyway? It is disintegrating under growing US-EU rivalry in arms exports and tech developments. NATO is an organization without a political purpose.

Militarily, it establishes a system of alliances for countries that are never going to be attacked anyway. NATO is only a prestige club. If you're in, your popular with the wealthiest countries on earth, and your military is presumably up to standard.

I say 'presumably' because many NATO members are operating with obsolete military equipment. And why should countries like Belgium, Austria or Denmark spend billions updating their arsenals? Nestled as they are in the heart of the EU, they can focus their money on improving their economies.

Russia and China see no need to counter NATO. They only see a need to counter an increasingly unilateral US.

I don't know if China would allow a Russian supply base on their soil. But I don't see why not, provided Russia pays the lease.

A Russian military base does portend that the Joint military exercise performed earlier this year was just the beginning of many more to come. Perhaps it will be an annual event. Russia showcases their arms for export, and China gains more training and experience with new weapons for an amphibious assault on Taiwan.

This supply base would undoubtably include a technology park where Russian and Chinese engineers can set standards, facilitate technical feedback, and cooperate on future designs. If Russia wants to sell more arms, they have to pay more attention to what their customer wants. Consider it a sales office.

[MIGleader]

now i dont know how the country's will work out ownership of the base. so now, where in china is this base going to be? and is the base for housing operational military equipment as well as parts?

[adeptitus]

Guys, it's just a supply depo, probably some warehouses near a port or something. It really doesn't qualify as a "military base" per se, but could be the precursor to something larger later down the road.

[renmin]

Russia May Open Military Supply Base in China — Defense Official

from: MosNews (http://www.mosnews.com/news/2005/12/01/ruschinabase.shtml)


Russia is considering establishing a military supply base in China, a Russian military official was quoted by Interfax as saying.

“In particular, talks on setting up a base of spare parts for Russian military products are being held with China,” Alexander Denisov, first deputy director of the Federal Military-Technical Cooperation Service, said.

The Federal Military-Technical Cooperation Service is constantly working on improving the efficiency of its structure, he said.

“The changing situation on the arms market requires making necessary corrections to the complicated system of military technical cooperation and using new forms and methods of work actively,” Denisov said.

According to him, Russia is engaged in military-technical cooperation with 82 states.

“By the way, the U.S. maintains military-technical cooperation with 100 countries, France with 29, Germany and Great Britain with 26 each,” he said.

In September Russia and China held major war games that were perceived by many experts as a first step to creation of a new military bloc, opposed NATO.


Now is this remarkable? To my knowlidge, not even Soviet Union had bases in china during the short marriage of these two powers. Could it be so that China will allow it, or is this report solely russian speculation. And what does it tells about the nature of sino-russian military ties?...and what does it implicates about Russian emerging back to the superpower club?

It raises guestions, does it?Actually, during those years when the two countries were allies, Russia did have a few military bases staioned in China (dont ask me where, I really dont know). Russia sent its top scientists to help China with arcitecture, military, civilian technologies. Many projects were started spending much money. But after Josef Stalin died, The next Soviet Leader, (this is in pinyin) He le xiao fu (who actually hated Stalin) took back all the scientists which canceled many unfinished projects which meens China just wasted ALOT of money. The Russian bases were also taken away. The russian leader also tried to boss China around. At the last straw, Mao ze Dong finally broke up with the Soviets. From this break up, China learned that no one should rely on someone else as what china had done and ended up spending much for nothing. Now that China and the Russians are close again including the fact that the two did the joint military exercise, I'm really not surprised Russia is building a base in China.

[Mao23]

this base is just housing spare bits and pieces so what is the big deal. yes now they may have trust but they are not pouring many military personel into it so will it really make much of a differnece. this base is going to be probaly the first in many russian bases built in china to help eachother in their interests in china. but first i wonder why they want to build a base to store spare parts and not personel?

[Dongfeng]

I agree with Mao23. It is not really a military base, more like a factory or warehouse. It could be spare parts made in China are stored there before being shipped to Russia.

However, I have no doubt that the ongoing military co-operation between China and Russia is more in depth than it seems to be.

[drunkhomer]

i dun really think russia and china really wants 2 challange da EU...i think dey wanna challange da american dominance

[PiSigma]

russia and china DON'T see EU as a threat, but as a potential counterweight to US. EU have better technology and more money than russia could ever put into military. only they currently have anything near what the americans have for technology.

back on topic, this could probably develop into joint research bases where china will provide more than just money for military R&D. or a way for russia to conduct "private" sales in china. so weapons can be sold without anyone else knowing it. since it's technically a "local" sale.

[MIGleader]

Actually, during those years when the two countries were allies, Russia did have a few military bases staioned in China (dont ask me where, I really dont know). Russia sent its top scientists to help China with arcitecture, military, civilian technologies. Many projects were started spending much money. But after Josef Stalin died, The next Soviet Leader, (this is in pinyin) He le xiao fu (who actually hated Stalin) took back all the scientists which canceled many unfinished projects which meens China just wasted ALOT of money. The Russian bases were also taken away. The russian leader also tried to boss China around. At the last straw, Mao ze Dong finally broke up with the Soviets. From this break up, China learned that no one should rely on someone else as what china had done and ended up spending much for nothing. Now that China and the Russians are close again including the fact that the two did the joint military exercise, I'm really not surprised Russia is building a base in China.

le xiao fu=kruschev? sounds somewhat similar.
i think kruschev didnt like anything stalin did, and hated china for fighting against india. thus, former friends became mortal enemies.

as for this base, its perhaps might store spare parts for any chinese operated russian equiupment. the thing is, the amount of chinese operated equipment is on a decline. aside from a few minor technologies, russia has few weapons to offer to china now. perhaps if this basxe was originally built in 1990, it would have served some use. but not in 2005. by 2010-2015, china likely wont make nay major weapons purchases from russia.

as with most chinese related buildings, we probably wont have any idea whats going on inside it, and the base must be used for more than just a supply depot. perhaps russia is showcasing more advanced technology in it, such as plasma and sattelite technology.

[renmin]

le xiao fu=kruschev? sounds somewhat similar.
i think kruschev didnt like anything stalin did, and hated china for fighting against india. thus, former friends became mortal enemies.

as for this base, its perhaps might store spare parts for any chinese operated russian equiupment. the thing is, the amount of chinese operated equipment is on a decline. aside from a few minor technologies, russia has few weapons to offer to china now. perhaps if this basxe was originally built in 1990, it would have served some use. but not in 2005. by 2010-2015, china likely wont make nay major weapons purchases from russia.

as with most chinese related buildings, we probably wont have any idea whats going on inside it, and the base must be used for more than just a supply depot. perhaps russia is showcasing more advanced technology in it, such as plasma and sattelite technology. Sorry, I just figured out his name, Nikita Khrushchev. I beleive it is a large possibilty that this base might just be a supply depot but more facilities should come, probably more serious too. Remember China has just become allies with russia again for only about 3 decades, so the first base, might not all be so important.

[clarkliu]

i think if Russia want to set a military base in china, china should set a military base in Russia. Or if this is not realistic, then your assumption is not true.

[crazyinsane105]

Very interesting development. Is this going to be the first foreign military base in China since the end of WWII? If it is, then Chinese-Russian military cooperation may be becoming more deeper than ever. As a matter of fact, I don't recall the Russians making the same deal with the Indians.

[MIGleader]

how in the world would russia send supply's and people to india without passing chinese airspace or territory? i know an indian base is likely aswell, but the russians are probably just taking one step at a time. perhaps russia will open a string ofdepots in china, allowing supplies to evnetually access inida(still through the himalayas).

[PLABUDDY]

i think if Russia want to set a military base in china, china should set a military base in Russia. Or if this is not realistic, then your assumption is not true.
This is interesting. Russia opening a military base in China. However from all of what we have discussed, non of us ever mentioned Varyag. In my opinion, this is somewhat linked to China's Aircraft carrier program because why open a supply depot for russian spare parts when PLAN can make them on their own? Therefore I think this base is linked to Varyag in someways that we may not be be able to see now.:china:

[MIGleader]

plaabuddy has a point. maybe its for the secret transfer of russia aids, technicians, weapons, and planes that are to be used on varayg. a supply depot may just be a cover.

[Mao23]

using the depot would be a really good idea to aid in building the varayg. if they are going to use it to help build the varayg then wouldn't the depot need to be reasonably close the construction site of the varayg. if it is far away, enemies of china could moniter the movements of the supplies and that would lead them straight to the varayg. then that would create a lot of talk. also does anyone know the planned location of the depot.

[MIGleader]

first of all mao, its common to use question marks (?) in english when asking a question. just a helpful hint:)

i have a feeling more than one base is planned, and they might be interconnected through underground tunnels. i belive the base is going to be relatively close to shenyang, chengdu, beijing, and dalian. mostl ikely, they will be situated near aricraft companies, large military bases, or NORINCO factories. a base near dalian would arouse quite a bit of foreign suspicion though...

[patriot]

The Russian military base in China would be a huge threat to China. Even though they are pretty friendly with us now doesn't mean they will be forever and as the relationship gets worse, it would pose a huge threat to our military. So, if they are to have a base in China, i say we should have one too in China. Then, it would be mutual.

[WEN?]

how will it be a threat?? its just a base to store spare parts in hear and there. the russians aren't gonna put tanks and all that inside.

[Ender Wiggin]

Even if they did they'ld be pretty easy to isolate and bombard incase of war. What I find interesting is that the last time the Russians tried to get an agreement with the Chinese in the 50's for lease of military bases and shore leave for sub crews.... relations soured...

[patriot]

It would be easier for them to dispatch spies in China and all kinds of military activities. Also, having a base will give you easy access to areas. U.S had a base in Jordan and Syria which they used to invade Iraq.

[Red not Dead]

i think if Russia want to set a military base in china, china should set a military base in Russia. Or if this is not realistic, then your assumption is not true.


China has noo need to set military bases in Russia.

The demographic situation is completely off balance. Russia hasn't got the possibility neither to conventionally defend it's borders, nor has it the capability to occupy China (not that some other country can do it).

So the russian base in China is far more interesting for Russia as a kind of goodwill initiative in order to enhance economic and military integration. I forsee an Eurasian Bloc in the Future with China/Russia/India (the only real way to balance the actual posture of the western powers). In the actual situation China is the Client State and can apply pressure at will especially with future political fixtures in Russia.

[Roger604]

I agree with the above analysis. We need Russia... if Russia sides with the West, we are completely defeated.

The good news is that the Russian culture is not conducive to a western style regime and this means that they are not natural allies. Instead, Putin's regime seems to be willing to ally itself with China to preserve its authoritarian system from western pressure.

Personally, I would favor as close cooperation with Russia as possible. Even to the point of formal military alliance, open-borders, or making Russian the second-most commonly spoken language in China and Chinese the second-most commony spoken language in Russia.

We need access to natural resources. And besides, Russian girls are hot. ;)

[AssassinsMace]

The common potential foe of both China and Russia is Japan. Japan still wants back large amounts of territory seized by the Soviets at the end of WWII. It's still a sticky issue between the two in diplomactic relations. The coming militarization of Japan, using the fear of rising China as an excuse, is really more Japan's need to independent and not a lapdog of the US. Empty of natural resources of its own, Japan has totally depended on the US umbrella for it's relations to the rest of the world. In a world where China and other countries are forging relations independent of the US and where being an ally of the US could target you by its enemies, Japan is seeing the world pass it by, spoiled by its Cold War relation to the US which now is a handicap.

The Russian Far East is barren and without the use of nuclear weapons it is highly unprotected. A militarized Japan may one day decide to take back territory it claims. So it would be wise for Russia to create an alliance with a China eager to take on what would be an aggressive invading Japan with potential US backing.

[Red not Dead]

The common potential foe of both China and Russia is Japan. Japan still wants back large amounts of territory seized by the Soviets at the end of WWII. It's still a sticky issue between the two in diplomactic relations. The coming militarization of Japan, using the fear of rising China as an excuse, is really more Japan's need to independent and not a lapdog of the US. Empty of natural resources of its own, Japan has totally depended on the US umbrella for it's relations to the rest of the world. In a world where China and other countries are forging relations independent of the US and where being an ally of the US could target you by its enemies, Japan is seeing the world pass it by, spoiled by its Cold War relation to the US which now is a handicap.

The Russian Far East is barren and without the use of nuclear weapons it is highly unprotected. A militarized Japan may one day decide to take back territory it claims. So it would be wise for Russia to create an alliance with a China eager to take on what would be an aggressive invading Japan with potential US backing.

You're pretty much on it. Japan will take the step of remilitarization someday with the US power fading out.

But:Let's not be that Naive.

The "real" (means the most capable/ potential) foe for Russia is China. Due to the immense land both countries have as territory they simply can't afford an open standoff and with Russia being "slightly" behind economically but with significant military assets. So the current situation will endure as far as the Chinese won't have any nostalgia about the land lost in the beggining of the XXth century (in favour of tzarist Russia). I do agree that the relationship between both countries has those "old couple" premises when both partners seems as much hating eachother than they need eachother.

China in naturally pressed to go towards Russia for some kind of energetical and military autonomy. Further more Russia desperately needs the chineese demographic power in order to keep it's eastern regions.

[INVISIBLE]

We need access to natural resources. And besides, Russian girls are hot. ;)

Ты тупой ублюдок!! я из России и не потерплю, чтобы американские педики мечтали о моей родине!! Не смей даже думать про русских девушек козел!:mad:

Russia - my motherland and I shall not suffer, that the stupid american dreamed of Russian girls and of natural resources!
I demand apologies from Roger604 for all Russian people :mad:

[Red not Dead]

Ты тупой ублюдок!! я из России и не потерплю, чтобы американские педики мечтали о моей родине!! Не смей даже думать про русских девушек козел!:mad:

Russia - my motherland and I shall not suffer, that the stupid american dreamed of Russian girls and of natural resources!
I demand apologies from Roger604 for all Russian people :mad:


I think he's chinese...anyway, that's true eastern Europe in general and Russia in particular has the most beautiful and clerver women I've met to yet.

Natural ressources...yah those get Russians really pesky.

[Gollevainen]

:off No offtopic BS, please...thougth as finn I would have lots of saying about Russian girls but i try to keep my feelings of the street....Anyway nice to have russians here also, Welcome, we have you guys too few...all new members remember introduce yourself in the member's club room, read the forum rules, and enjoy posting!:)

[INVISIBLE]

Every year thousand Russian girls leave from Russia to marry the rich European or for the valiant American cowboy. In Russia becomes more and more people who wish to prevent to it. I one of such people.

[Gollevainen]

well yeas, I know that but its got hardly anything to do whit chinese-russian military relations, so leave the subject...

[INVISIBLE]

I think, that the world not without silly people, therefore me here will understand. Tomorrow we shall talk about Russian military bases in China.

I wish you good night, in Russia a midnight))

[AssassinsMace]

You're pretty much on it. Japan will take the step of remilitarization someday with the US power fading out.

But:Let's not be that Naive.

The "real" (means the most capable/ potential) foe for Russia is China. Due to the immense land both countries have as territory they simply can't afford an open standoff and with Russia being "slightly" behind economically but with significant military assets. So the current situation will endure as far as the Chinese won't have any nostalgia about the land lost in the beggining of the XXth century (in favour of tzarist Russia). I do agree that the relationship between both countries has those "old couple" premises when both partners seems as much hating eachother than they need eachother.

China in naturally pressed to go towards Russia for some kind of energetical and military autonomy. Further more Russia desperately needs the chineese demographic power in order to keep it's eastern regions.

China may be capable but does it have the aspiration? Are we going to think the Russians are dumb? Why are they arming the Chinese and why would China buy weapons systems from a "foe" who would know how they work best. And most likely China would face a nuclear counterstrike so why would they try? The fact is the Russia/China future conflict scenario over the Russian Far East was created by Tom Clancy fans when The Bear and the Dragon came out. What? No one thought of that scenario before the book came out. Doesn't bode well for American assessment of the future to come if they need an author, with the suspicion of having a ghost writer, to tell them the state of the world. The neo-cons love to spread fear to get countries on board with their plan for the world. This paranoid fictional scenario is more aimed to break the military relationship between Russia and China. I'd say the Russian/China cooperation in economic and military affairs says more about their relations than a book from a Western paranoid neo-con. The Russians are getting rich off of their relations with China and not just militarily. Japan has a difficult time dealing with the Russians because of the territorial claims they continue to make. You would more likely see Russia sell off parts of the Russian Far East like they did with Alaska but not as cheap.

[coolieno99]

I wouldn't be surprised if G.W. Bush developed his foreign policies from Tom Clancy novels ... anyway, Russian President Putin has stated many times in the past that Russia, China, and India should formed an alliance.

[Red not Dead]

China may be capable but does it have the aspiration? Are we going to think the Russians are dumb? Why are they arming the Chinese and why would China buy weapons systems from a "foe" who would know how they work best. And most likely China would face a nuclear counterstrike so why would they try? The fact is the Russia/China future conflict scenario over the Russian Far East was created by Tom Clancy fans when The Bear and the Dragon came out. What? No one thought of that scenario before the book came out. Doesn't bode well for American assessment of the future to come if they need an author, with the suspicion of having a ghost writer, to tell them the state of the world. The neo-cons love to spread fear to get countries on board with their plan for the world. This paranoid fictional scenario is more aimed to break the military relationship between Russia and China. I'd say the Russian/China cooperation in economic and military affairs says more about their relations than a book from a Western paranoid neo-con. The Russians are getting rich off of their relations with China and not just militarily. Japan has a difficult time dealing with the Russians because of the territorial claims they continue to make. You would more likely see Russia sell off parts of the Russian Far East like they did with Alaska but not as cheap.


No mace i do Agree with you, but historically the chinese have always had territorial clashes with tzarist Russia (with some rightful claims). And China is pressed towards greater cooperation with Russia. I was saying that if we were to look who would pose the most immediate threat in terms of geographical position, demographic evolution and world influence to Russia; China is the name. That's not aimed at demonizing China. No it would be a normal course. As history becames more cyclic China would have the chance to have it's turn of world contest as it was back in the XIII to the XVII century. It's a normal feature of the human history. There is nothing paranoidal about that. Even better like in the XVIIth the Chinese are agreeing to share the responsibility of the transition to a more dominant position to the region with it's partner, Russia.

It's not aimed at insulting you, it aimed at expressing the reality. China has awaken and now it's doeing it's math. Who would loose in the operation. Probably the USA and the West.:china:

[INVISIBLE]

For the beginning I wish to tell, that Russia while does not have any plans in occasion of accommodation of military bases in territory of China. The some people consider, that China in the near future will try to kindle the military conflict. I consider, that to Chineses is now simply unprofitable to heat attitudes with the West. At Chineses now other purposes - to captivate the world market the to the goods, to strengthen economy...

China by 2010-2011 can make a powerful competition to the western countries, both in economic and in the military plan then to Americans will have or to recognize new world power and to give the up the place under the sun, or to untie bloody massacre.

Russia will help Chineses only at the last minute. Russia are favourable for striking two great powers foreheads. If Chineses will destroy the American empire will constrain a gold civilization already Russian.

P.S: I already for a long time have noticed, that citizens of the western countries very much like to brag of military power of the country. I wish to tell, that at Russia the most powerful nuclear arms all over the world: some our military complete sets "satan" can destroy in a powder any country on the area of equal Australia.

Если что извините меня за мой ломаный английский))))

[AssassinsMace]

No mace i do Agree with you, but historically the chinese have always had territorial clashes with tzarist Russia (with some rightful claims). And China is pressed towards greater cooperation with Russia. I was saying that if we were to look who would pose the most immediate threat in terms of geographical position, demographic evolution and world influence to Russia; China is the name. That's not aimed at demonizing China. No it would be a normal course. As history becames more cyclic China would have the chance to have it's turn of world contest as it was back in the XIII to the XVII century. It's a normal feature of the human history. There is nothing paranoidal about that. Even better like in the XVIIth the Chinese are agreeing to share the responsibility of the transition to a more dominant position to the region with it's partner, Russia.

It's not aimed at insulting you, it aimed at expressing the reality. China has awaken and now it's doeing it's math. Who would loose in the operation. Probably the USA and the West.:china:

No offense taken. Reading my post again I can see it can be interpreted that way. Pardon the possible wrong tone. Thanks for your post.

[AssassinsMace]

Here's an article if you can read Chinese where it talks about Japan's attempt to take advantage of Russia's weak state during the Yeltsin presidency to take back territory it claims. But because of China playing an important role in the revitalization and strengthening of today's Russia, Japan basically lost it's opportunity for a fair diplomatic negotiation over the territories.


中国第一次彻底阻断了日本对北方四岛的统一

教科书事件、小泉参拜靖国神社、东海油气之争是最近几个月来中日关系的主旋律，很多媒体说这是小日本在挑衅 ，甚至有人说小日本将要为东海石油大干一仗。不管怎样说，在很多人眼里，小日本是一个穷凶极恶的家伙，不过 要是我们冷净下来，就会发现完全不是那么回事。
　　首先说一说教科书事件、小泉参拜靖国神社。这两件事除了让中国人更加厌恶日本外，能起什么作用呢？？能 对中国的发展构成阻吗？？甚至说到中日东海石油的冲突，冲突归冲突，我们的东海油气田还不是照开不误？？小 日本做的这些对我们的发展其实没有什么实质影响。
　　日本是一个很精明的民族，对自己没有一点好处却不断往中国人感情下下刀子可不是什么成功的外交政策。小 日本为什么这样做呢？？这是被气的，它要被中国人气死了。因为我们成功（也许是无意的）协助俄罗斯从日本手 上割去了一块领土，而日本人眼睁睁看着却束手无策，唯一能做的就是用最恶毒的语言、行动来诅咒我们，谩骂我 们，因为除了它之外他想不出更好的办法。
　　被切掉的领土就是小日本的北方四岛（国后岛、色丹岛、择捉岛、齿舞群岛，日本的固有领土，国际上都承认 ，二战后被苏联占领，后归俄罗斯）。北方四岛在日本人中的位置如同台湾对中国大陆，这两块领土是两个民族的 切肤之痛，一碰它就刺骨得疼。我们想台湾想了50多年、盼台湾盼了50多年，其实小日本对北方四岛的感情和 这也差不多。和前苏联或前几年的俄罗斯的纠缠不清的问题总是这北方四岛。经过二战后50多年的国力角逐，它 们的前途日渐明朗。台湾与我们在经济上是越来越近，加上我们“决不放弃武力解决台湾问题”的承诺， 台湾回到大陆只是时间的问题，不要说归属外国，连独立的可能都没有。而北方四岛呢，离日本可是越来越远了， 怕是永远没有回归日本的机会了。在这一进程中，中国起了相当大的作用，甚至可以说起了决定性的 影响。
　　这一切应该从上个世纪90年代末说起。苏联解体后，俄罗斯的经济处于崩溃的边缘，可以说是民不聊生。小 日本趁火打劫（也可以说是忍辱负重，终于逮到机会），赶紧提了个经济援助方案，想以此换回被占领的北方四岛 。俄罗斯穷得实在是没法过了，反正北方四岛是抢了人家的，还就还吧，先搞点钱过日子再说。在当时的总统叶利 钦的授权下，俄罗斯真得一本正经地跟小日本谈起来了。叶利钦还主动提出，只要部分资金到位，就可以先归还两 个岛的主权，其他的再慢慢谈。这下子把日本人美的，好多日本人都开始憧憬到自己的北方四岛旅游了，共同社还 特地到北方四岛搞调查，做宣传，很是热闹。你要是有能力找到当年的参考消息，就会发现这样的花边新闻遍地都 是。
　　这是北方四岛离日本最近是时刻，可惜小日本却没有抓住。
　　当时我们中国正处于西方世界的围困当中，哪有时间对这件事评头论足。更谈不是对此施加什么影响。没时间 ，更没那个实力。另外，我们还忙着做另两件工作，我们从俄罗斯引进了几千名专家，采购了先进的 苏27。
　　可是不知道小日本是傻还是过于精明，可能他们在谈判中发现了俄罗斯的处境比自己想像的还要困难，竟在谈 判中大大提高了谈判的筹码，一是要求北方四岛的问题一并解决，二是对借款、货款提出了更高的要求。这一子可 超出了俄罗斯的承受能力，引发了俄罗斯人的抗议。因此双方的谈判不得不冷了下来。这一冷就是好 几年。
　　刚开始的时候小日本并不着急，因为美国的经济学家开的体克疗法对俄罗斯的经济造成了严重破坏，小日本坚 信用不了多长时间，俄罗斯人就会跑来求他救命，那时候什么北方四岛，怕是再苛刻的条件俄罗斯也不得不答应。 可他低估了俄国人的忍耐力，也忘了一个国家——中国。
　　苏联解体后不久，俄罗斯很快就明白了自己的艰难处境，他甚至不能养活自己的人民。但他还是很有些资本的 ，尤其是在重工作、军事方面。这些方面对西方国家是没有什么用处的，因为这也是西方世界的长项。可对中国来 说，这可是一笔特别的资本。中俄两国终于又走在了一起。没有硬通货，没关系，我们可以以货易货啊。你要什么 ？飞机？有！坦克？有！化肥？有！你那呢？吃的？有！穿的？有！怎么换？一船化肥一船西瓜。还记吗，弁其中 不就以轻工品从俄罗斯换飞机吗？就凭以货易货这种古老的交易方式，终于使双方都度过了难关，俄罗斯度过了生 存危机，中国度过了西方强国的封锁。附带的结果就是，俄罗斯对出让北方四岛的兴趣很快就降低了，生存问题解 决了，就没必要急急忙忙卖地了。由于俄罗斯在很短的时间里，就解决了俄国人的吃饭问题，在北方四岛的谈判中 就占据了主动地位，对谈判他们爱理不理的，就是谈起来要价还是高的吓人。但日本人开的条件比中国人开的要诱 人，小日本给的是美元，是硬通货。只可惜小日本过于小家子气，过于计较，双方迟迟不能达成协议。其实直到2 000年，俄罗斯还是很需要硬通货的，从美国对南联盟的打击中就可以看出来，当时叶利钦扬言为了保卫南联盟 ，不惜和北约开战。但克林顿派了个特使到俄罗斯去，以减免俄罗斯的借货款并督促世界银行再给俄罗斯一笔借款 后，叶利钦就屈服了。前几天还不惜和北约开战，几天后就宣布不派一兵一卒到南联盟，自己打自己的耳光。这也 从另一方面反映了俄罗斯国力的穷困。可能也是因为这个原因，小日本一口咬定原先条件死不松口的 原因吧。
　　可这时中国的经济开始大发展了起来。反应在外汇贮备上，那数字就一个劲往上窜。另外几乎在一夜间，中国 就成为了原材料的进口大国。这时俄罗斯突然发现，和中国做买卖，是比日本更好的一个选择。一是量大，二是价 高，三也没有多少附加条件。另外和小日本一样全是以硬通货支付。这样在和日本的北方四岛的谈判中，俄罗斯更 觉得索然寡味了。小日本要开放市场？开不开放也没什么意思，反正我的原材料也有人买，重工业产品你也不要。 搞投资，我在远东有大片的森林，无穷的矿藏，想投资历，我找哪个不行啊。就是经济援助还比较对我的口味，要 是支援给我的钱让我自由使用那还差不多。要是带上别的条件，那我可要好好考虑考虑。
　　中日石油管道的走向之争是对所谓的经济援助的最后考验。最后，俄罗斯终于发现，原来小日本一心想得是为 自己啊，经济援助的目标还是建成通往自己国家的石油管道。不过话也说回来，哪个国家不为自己的利益考虑。但 是小日本这次又玩过火了。它居然又想把经济援助、石油管道的走向、北方四岛问题绑架在一起解决。这可给俄罗 斯提了个醒，以后要是石油管道被小日本控制起来那还了得。因为北方四岛是小日本念念不忘的啊，把出油管道输 到日本，要是有为北方四岛闹翻的一天，麻烦实在太多了。得了，反正中国想石油想得发疯，为什么不卖给中国呢 ，连飞机、导弹我都卖，石油算哪门子武器呢？？
　　经过这一番争来斗去，小日本是彻底败北了。换句话说，想要回北方四岛，最佳的时机已经过去了，到现在， 已经没有牌跟俄罗斯玩了。而原先的一张张王牌，都是因为中国的出现而成了一张张废纸。北方四岛，小日本心中 永远的痛，他想了50多年，盼了50多年，就在十几年前它们离他还那么近，可现在它们已是那么遥远，这一切 好象都是中国人干的，而所谓的优秀民族，竟不能象自己鄙视的中国人那样说声武力解决，甚至都不能有这个想法 。所以他要骂中国，他要诅咒中国，原因是日本争不过中国。即便是东海之争也不过如此，日本又能怎样，你爱抗 议就抗议，我中国照样开采。有本事你来啊，你就是批准日本公司开采又能怎样，他们能架设海底的输油管道么？ 任你怎么叫，东海的资源就是我的，我爱拿就拿，反正东海油田你小日本是只能说不能做，我啊，就 做不说。

[adeptitus]

The common potential foe of both China and Russia is Japan. Japan still wants back large amounts of territory seized by the Soviets at the end of WWII. It's still a sticky issue between the two in diplomactic relations.

o_O "Large amounts of territory"?

Japan only maintains a claim to the 4 south-most islands in the Kuril chain:
Kunashir/Kunashiri
Iturup/Etorofu
Shikotan
Habomai

In previous discussions, it was suggested that Russia and Japan would split them 50-50, with Japan gaining Shikotan and Habomai.

Personally, I think the small islands should be given to the remaining Ainu/Utari peoples as a tribal reservation. =P

[Troika]

Actually, during those years when the two countries were allies, Russia did have a few military bases staioned in China (dont ask me where, I really dont know). Russia sent its top scientists to help China with arcitecture, military, civilian technologies. Many projects were started spending much money. But after Josef Stalin died, The next Soviet Leader, (this is in pinyin) He le xiao fu (who actually hated Stalin) took back all the scientists which canceled many unfinished projects which meens China just wasted ALOT of money. The Russian bases were also taken away. The russian leader also tried to boss China around. At the last straw, Mao ze Dong finally broke up with the Soviets. From this break up, China learned that no one should rely on someone else as what china had done and ended up spending much for nothing. Now that China and the Russians are close again including the fact that the two did the joint military exercise, I'm really not surprised Russia is building a base in China.

Port Arthur, before return of it to China, was major Soviet base. I think there were others in Manchuria, and of course Soviet volunteers operated from China during Korean War.

[taijisheng]

And China is pressed towards greater cooperation with Russia. I was saying that if we were to look who would pose the most immediate threat in terms of geographical position, demographic evolution and world influence to Russia; China is the name. That's not aimed at demonizing China. No it would be a normal course. As history becames more cyclic China would have the chance to have it's turn of world contest as it was back in the XIII to the XVII century. It's a normal feature of the human history. There is nothing paranoidal about that. Even better like in the XVIIth the Chinese are agreeing to share the responsibility of the transition to a more dominant position to the region with it's partner, Russia.

It's not aimed at insulting you, it aimed at expressing the reality. China has awaken and now it's doeing it's math. Who would loose in the operation. Probably the USA and the West.:china:

I think the days of pure territorial conflict is over, for china, a future war with russia about those territories is just stupid. When we look at Japan, we see a country that is 'tiny' compare to us, has no nature resources, and yet is one of the richest, most advanced and powerfulest countries in the world. Economical power and technological advance are way more important than some extra territories. Todays territorial conflict is abut controling strategic points, to control trade routes and gain access to energy resources. Thats why china is looking to south, to south china sea, and not to north, and thats why china has ended all border dispute with russia and signed border treaties.