indian ocean conflict

[MIGleader]

suppose in the year 2012, india and china got into a mjor dispute about oil shipping lanes in the indian ocean. so both guys mobelized their navies prepared for armed conflict(not necasserily war).

PLAN and alies
PLAN:
varyag

51cx2
52cx2
52bx2
51bx2
52x2
sovremenyx4

54x4
53h3x10

93x4
94x2
92x1
songx10
yuanx4
kilox12

royal thai navy
Chakri Naruebet x1

Phuttayotfa Chalaok Knox x2
Naresuan Jianghu x2
Chao Phraya Jianghu x2
Makut Rajakumarn Yarrow x1
Pin Klao Cannon x1

pakistan navy
Alamgir US Gearing x1

PRC Type 053 or Type 057 x4
Tariq UK Amazon x4
Shamsher UK Leander x1

Khalid Fr Agosta 90B x 3
Hashmat Fr Agosta-x 2
Hangor Fr Daphné x1



Indian navy

R Air Defense Ship x 1
R Vikramaditya Rus Gorshkov x 1
R Viraat F/O UK Invincible x1
R 22 Viraat UK Hermes CVV x 1

D Talwar Sov Krivak III DDG x 3
D Delhi Project 15 x 6
D 51 Rajput Sov Kashin DDG x5

F Shivalik Project 17 x 8
F 20 Godavari Project x 4
F 33 Nilgiri UK Type 12 Leander x2

Adv Tech Vessel x 6
SSN Sov Akula-II x 2
SSGN Chakra Sov Charlie-I x1
Project 76 Ru Amur x 8
Project 75 Fr Scorpene x 6
S 55 Sindhu Ghosh Sov Kilo x 5
S 44 Shishumar Ge T-209/1500 x 4

now lets see what happens...

[crazyinsane105]

By 2012, Pakistan should have a new sub (either another Agosta or even the German U-214). Also, the PN is trying to buy 2 Perry Class frigates from the US and there should be at least one or two F-22P's in the PN (most likely equipped with high end electronics and weapons by then). Not to offend anybody, but if the IN were to face ALL of those navies at once, it really wouldn't stand a chance. Yes, the IN can take them on ONE BY ONE, but never all of them at the same time. It would be equivalent if China were to go against the Japanese, Americans, and South Koreans at the same time in 2012. The PLAN would be dead within a matter of minutes. Same goes here for the IN.

[Jeff Head]

Not to offend anybody, but if the IN were to face ALL of those navies at once, it really wouldn't stand a chance. Yes, the IN can take them on ONE BY ONE, but never all of them at the same time. Why do you assume the INS would be "going it alone"? By 2012 there may be any number of nations willing to help her in such a conflict, particularly depending on the provocation.

Having said that, I think it is much more likely that before then the PLAN will have attempted to woo the Indians themselves (which they are already attemting in many ways) to keep them out of any potential conflict resulting between the PRC and the ROC and the US over Taiwan.

[crazyinsane105]

Why do you assume the INS would be "going it alone"? By 2012 there may be any number of nations willing to help her in such a conflict, particularly depending on the provocation.

Having said that, I think it is much more likely that before then the PLAN will have attempted to woo the Indians themselves (which they are already attemting in many ways) to keep them out of any potential conflict resulting between the PRC and the ROC and the US over Taiwan.

It is just that I can't imagine any other navy helping the IN in that situation. Otherwise I would have stated so. Maybe the USN would help the IN out, but then it would become a much bigger conflict.

If a conflict DOES happen, the only countries I see getting involved would be China, India, and MAYBE Pakistan.

[tphuang]

this is bound to start a flaming war if there is an Indian member on this site. Anyhow, I believe Viraat is getting decommissioned.

There better be 052Ds and even newer 054s by 2012. Also Talwar is FFG. The type 15 and type 17 numbers are questionable. Who really knows how many Delhis IN will have.

It's interesting. IN is built for blue navy operation and PLAN is built more for defensive and coastal roles, but PLAN has more advanced ships.

[Jeff Head]

Maybe the USN would help the IN out, but then it would become a much bigger conflict. Exactly...and one of the reasons I believe it probably will not start there.

I do not see the PLAN pushing that far from home until after they are more powerful and secure within the 1st island chain...and that means Taiwan at a minimum. Until that is resolved, and that will ultimatley involve the US, I just do not see a Sino-Indian conflict emerging.

I could certainly and very easily be wrong.

I believe if the Pakistanis and China went together against India, India would get help...Australia, S. Korea, Japan, the US, the UK...all would see such a conflict as a threat to the stability of the entire region where they all have very critical interests

[adeptitus]

As a hypothetical scenario, India has absolute advantage in the Bay of Bengal.

If you look at it geographically, China is on the other side of Bhutan, Thailand is on the other side of Burma, and Pakistan... well, they're on the other side of India.

Numerically speaking carriers cannot compete against land-based air force. India can base hundreds of airplanes from land bases right up to the Bay of Bengal. If they want to attack a PLAN fleet there, they don't even need to send ships out.
http://www.pnm.my/mtcp/images/maps/India-map.jpg

[crazyinsane105]

As a hypothetical scenario, India has absolute advantage in the Bay of Bengal.

If you look at it geographically, China is on the other side of Bhutan, Thailand is on the other side of Burma, and Pakistan... well, they're on the other side of India.

Numerically speaking carriers cannot compete against land-based air force. India can base hundreds of airplanes from land bases right up to the Bay of Bengal. If they want to attack a PLAN fleet there, they don't even need to send ships out.
http://www.pnm.my/mtcp/images/maps/India-map.jpg

I don't think that the PLAN would be stupid enough to send its ships in the Bay of Bengal to fight the IN. That would make as much sense as the IN sending its ships into the South China Sea to fight the PLAN. The PLAN could probably send in subs into the area to harass the IN, but I don't think any surface ships would go there. Not until the PLAN gets more fighters in its arsenal will it risk that.

[jatt]

:rofl:
This is too stupid for me to post anything senseable so i'll just post some better facts.
This is what the IN group would look like
Carriers
1 ADS (MiG-29K LCA Harriers)
1 Viky (MiG-29K 24 VLS Shtyl on APAR)

Dystoryers
3-Type15A Banglore Class
3-Type 15 Delhi Class
5-Rajput Class

Firgates
3-Type 17A
3-Type 17 Shivalik Class
3-Talwar Class
3-Type 16A
3-Type 16

Corvettes
6-Type 28
4-Type 25A
4-Type 25
13-Veer Class

http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/NAVY/Surface.html

[vincelee]

and they would all go down the drain because Indians don't have ASW. Let's face it, they never really had to face a significant sub thread.

[Fairthought]

I agree with Jatt in the sense that the scenario is too far fetched to even be worthy of consideration.

First of all, Chinese and Indian navy would pussyfoot around each other because neither side wants to start a nuclear war. After jockeying for position, one side would proclaim they had the advantage and sail home to a victory parade. The other will furiously upgrade their navy for future competition.

Second, the Thai government is in America's pocket. They will Never fight for the Chinese.

Third, If this conflict was provoked by China, India would have lots of 'sudden' allies. Anyone with an axe to grind against China will lend them their services. The list includes: America, Britain, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, and Australia. Of these, America and Japan would be the most likely to take action.

South korea and Russia would remain neutral.

Fourth, if the oil conflict begins because of an Indian provocation then India would be blamed by the West for sending oil prices through the roof. The US isn't going to let anyone embargo the persian gulf, and they may send India a stern message.

India has their fleet divided: one in the Arabian Sea, the other in the Bay of Bengal. Only Indian subs, and advanced ones at that, could venture past the straits of Malaccas. But the point is India doesn't have to venture forth. The oil from the persian gulf snakes around India. The burden falls on China to secure these shipping lanes.

In the Arabian Sea, China has a friend in Pakistan. I expect chinese warships to regularly dock in Pakistani harbors by 2012. In the persian Gulf, China has a friend in Iran. In the south China sea, China has a friend in Indonesia. That leaves a big gaping hole in the Bay of Bengal.

China has two options: Help build up the Bangladeshi Navy, or the Myanmar Navy. Either one sounds like a fool's errand. These are incredibly poor countries, and a strong navy is the last thing on their mind. Also, it is still not clear if Myanmar is even pro-China. India has as much if not more influence in Myanmar.

The Indians have the advantage. That is why China is so bent on securing energy from Russian pipelines. China wants some economic insulation in case of a naval embargo.

[ArjunMk1]

and they would all go down the drain because Indians don't have ASW. Let's face it, they never really had to face a significant sub thread.

Just do some research man !!! :rofl:
Indian ASW is one of the best in Asia since Pakistani submarines are its only viable threat !!

Indian has deditaced ASW fleet of frigates with advanced radars and sonars !!!
India has Kamov helocopters dedicated for ASW .

[Jeff Head]

That is why China is so bent on securing energy from Russian pipelines. China wants some economic insulation in case of a naval embargo. Exactly.

[MIGleader]

Just do some research man !!! :rofl:
Indian ASW is one of the best in Asia since Pakistani submarines are its only viable threat !!

Indian has deditaced ASW fleet of frigates with advanced radars and sonars !!!
India has Kamov helocopters dedicated for ASW .

adavanced? bs. they have rockets, and torpedoes. no towed sonar, no sub hunters.

kamov? china has em too.
indisa large fleet of carreirs is going to be a big liability, since tis is not exacltly capable of protecting em.

the thais are great friends with china and would help china if requested. seeing how this is a dispute, america has no say in it.

[DPRKUnderground]

Pakistan has the advantages in Naval Aviation and Submarines. But the Surface Fleet lacks in numbers when compared to the IN. If you ask me Pakistan needs to enhance it's littoral capabilites, I know new patrol boats are coming from Turkey, but their should be a new platform for the Babur!

[Jeff Head]

adavanced? bs. they have rockets, and torpedoes. no towed sonar, no sub hunters.Both the Delhis and the Godarvis carry two helicopters that can have significant ASW capabilities, with dipping sonar, electroincs and torps. In addition, the Delhis do have their own Model 15-750 variable depth sonar in addition to their active sonar.

Don't take them too lightly.
the thais are great friends with china and would help china if requested. seeing how this is a dispute, america has no say in it In my opinion, any dispute in the area that threatens navigation or free use of the sea lanes, particularly in that area where so much of US allies oil passes...will likely see the involvement of the US Navy to protect those interests.

[crazyinsane105]

Just do some research man !!! :rofl:
Indian ASW is one of the best in Asia since Pakistani submarines are its only viable threat !!

Indian has deditaced ASW fleet of frigates with advanced radars and sonars !!!
India has Kamov helocopters dedicated for ASW .

True, but you have to remember that a sub can detect a frigate much more quickly than the frigate can detect the sub. It will be very risky for the IN to operate in such conditions. Just look at the USN: they have the best ASW in the world yet they are still very scared of Chinese subs.

[crazyinsane105]

Pakistan has the advantages in Naval Aviation and Submarines. But the Surface Fleet lacks in numbers when compared to the IN. If you ask me Pakistan needs to enhance it's littoral capabilites, I know new patrol boats are coming from Turkey, but their should be a new platform for the Babur!

There were rumors that the Babur was going to be test fired from a surface ship. We have to see if that will happen in the future.

[tphuang]

:rofl:
This is too stupid for me to post anything senseable so i'll just post some better facts.
This is what the IN group would look like
Carriers
1 ADS (MiG-29K LCA Harriers)
1 Viky (MiG-29K 24 VLS Shtyl on APAR)

Dystoryers
3-Type15A Banglore Class
3-Type 15 Delhi Class
5-Rajput Class

Firgates
3-Type 17A
3-Type 17 Shivalik Class
3-Talwar Class
3-Type 16A
3-Type 16

Corvettes
6-Type 28
4-Type 25A
4-Type 25
13-Veer Class

http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/NAVY/Surface.html
that's what migleader posted pretty much.

As for ASW, I looked at Talwar, it's ASW seems pretty normal.

[crazyinsane105]

that's what migleader posted pretty much.

As for ASW, I looked at Talwar, it's ASW seems pretty normal.

The Talwar class is pretty damn deadly. That is why the IN is ordering several more.

[DPRKUnderground]

True, but you have to remember that a sub can detect a frigate much more quickly than the frigate can detect the sub. It will be very risky for the IN to operate in such conditions. Just look at the USN: they have the best ASW in the world yet they are still very scared of Chinese subs.

And you can't foget those Exocet missiles that can take out a ship that's w/in 50km of it. What are the condition of the Agosta 70s?

[crazyinsane105]

And you can't foget those Exocet missiles that can take out a ship that's w/in 50km of it. What are the condition of the Agosta 70s?

It is still seaworthy and it will probably be in service with the PN until new subs replace them.

[Gollevainen]

Why does everybody always forget the Sea Kings? They are superior ASW helicopters compared to Ka-28s and the bulk of Indian current carrier air group.

[ArjunMk1]

Why does everybody always forget the Sea Kings? They are superior ASW helicopters compared to Ka-28s and the bulk of Indian current carrier air group.

Seakings are not superiors !! They carry similar equipments to that of Kamovs .

Sea Kings are older helis and currently going upgradation. India ,in future, might switch to Kamov helis for heavy duty since Seakings have US made parts in them !!! After Indian Nuclear explosion US blocked the sell of Seaking spare parts . :(
Also Indian ALH Dhruv helis are gradullly inducted in navy . They also have a considerable ASW capability. They can carry sonars , radars, sonobuys , torpedoes , AShMs and depth charges !!!

[DPRKUnderground]

It is still seaworthy and it will probably be in service with the PN until new subs replace them.

Can it be compared to India's Kilos? Is it similar to the Agosta 90?

[crazyinsane105]

Can it be compared to India's Kilos? Is it similar to the Agosta 90?

Indian Kilos are quiet, but they don't have electronic systems as advanced as the Agostas. I have seen the interiors of the Indian Kilos AND the Agostas. The Agostas look like a space station while the Kilos look pretty damn ancient.

[Gollevainen]

Seakings are not superiors !! They carry similar equipments to that of Kamovs .

Sea Kings are older helis and currently going upgradation. India ,in future, might switch to Kamov helis for heavy duty since Seakings have US made parts in them !!! After Indian Nuclear explosion US blocked the sell of Seaking spare parts .
Also Indian ALH Dhruv helis are gradullly inducted in navy . They also have a considerable ASW capability. They can carry sonars , radars, sonobuys , torpedoes , AShMs and depth charges !!!

well to my knowlidge, western ASW systems tends to be better than those in Kamovs, thougth im not rock solid. Also, Sea Kings have superior range and payload...

[jatt]

Well the IN air arm should also be considered. The Tu-142 maritime patrol aircarft ar pretty damn good and who knows if the IN will get P-3Cs.
And in the future I expect the P-17A to be equiped with Aster-15/30 which IN and MDBA was in talks for. Also the IN seems to be in talks for 3 more Talwar Class.

[crazyinsane105]

Well the IN air arm should also be considered. The Tu-142 maritime patrol aircarft ar pretty damn good and who knows if the IN will get P-3Cs.
And in the future I expect the P-17A to be equiped with Aster-15/30 which IN and MDBA was in talks for. Also the IN seems to be in talks for 3 more Talwar Class.

I think that India will get both the P-3C's and even the Talwar Class. However, you did forget to mention the fact that India will also lease two Backfires from Russia. I don't know when they will come, but those things can be a force multiplier.

[jatt]

If the rumours are true Akulas. I know its about time for the ATV aswell. The IN seems to be really pushing for some real force multiplyers, same with the IAF. Just leaves onw questioning what the IA plans.

[crazyinsane105]

If the rumours are true Akulas. I know its about time for the ATV aswell. The IN seems to be really pushing for some real force multiplyers, same with the IAF. Just leaves onw questioning what the IA plans.

What can the IA get as a force multiplier? I mean, much of their equipment is already countered by the PA. T-90's will have to face Al Khalids, T-80UD, T-84, and the Type 85 just for example. Is there EVEN a force multiplier that the IA can choose that the PA will have a difficult time to encounter?

[DPRKUnderground]

What can the IA get as a force multiplier? I mean, much of their equipment is already countered by the PA. T-90's will have to face Al Khalids, T-80UD, T-84, and the Type 85 just for example. Is there EVEN a force multiplier that the IA can choose that the PA will have a difficult time to encounter?

The Indian Army will be suffering a tank shortage in about 5 years. All of hte Vijayantas will be retired and all of the T-55s will be retired. That means by 2010, India will only have about 2000 tanks, less than Pakistan. Pakistan will have the Al-Zarrar's which can be compared to the T-80UD, the Al-Khalid, the T-80UD, the T-84, and the Type-85! The T-72s have still not been upgraded, so they will be nice targets for Pakistan's tanks. The T-90 will be a challenge, but once that Bakhtar Shikan round is in production, bye-bye!

[tphuang]

The Talwar class is pretty damn deadly. That is why the IN is ordering several more.
for an Asian FFG, it's pretty deadly, yes. but I was talking about its ASW, not its other systems. And they are not ordering more Talwar, but project 17, which is supposedly better.

[jatt]

The Indian Army will be suffering a tank shortage in about 5 years. All of hte Vijayantas will be retired and all of the T-55s will be retired. That means by 2010, India will only have about 2000 tanks, less than Pakistan. Pakistan will have the Al-Zarrar's which can be compared to the T-80UD, the Al-Khalid, the T-80UD, the T-84, and the Type-85! The T-72s have still not been upgraded, so they will be nice targets for Pakistan's tanks. The T-90 will be a challenge, but once that Bakhtar Shikan round is in production, bye-bye!
Correction the T-72 are being upgraded at a slow pace for now.
Is there EVEN a force multiplier that the IA can choose that the PA will have a difficult time to encounter?
Artillery. There was a tender out there but it got caught in a scandel. Apparently this is what the IA lags in large numbers.
And they are not ordering more Talwar, but project 17, which is supposedly better.
They might be doing both. IN is in talks for 3 more Krivik II Class. It is a good possibility that they will make the order. The IN is known to by 2 batches or 3.

[MIGleader]

The Indian Army will be suffering a tank shortage in about 5 years. All of hte Vijayantas will be retired and all of the T-55s will be retired. That means by 2010, India will only have about 2000 tanks, less than Pakistan. Pakistan will have the Al-Zarrar's which can be compared to the T-80UD, the Al-Khalid, the T-80UD, the T-84, and the Type-85! The T-72s have still not been upgraded, so they will be nice targets for Pakistan's tanks. The T-90 will be a challenge, but once that Bakhtar Shikan round is in production, bye-bye!

2000 tanks!!!! thats more than a nation needs. countries should be concentrating on light, mobil warfare rather than kursk style tank battles.
india just needs missles and rpgs to kill tanks.

[IDonT]

True, but you have to remember that a sub can detect a frigate much more quickly than the frigate can detect the sub. It will be very risky for the IN to operate in such conditions. Just look at the USN: they have the best ASW in the world yet they are still very scared of Chinese subs.


You are forgeting Indians 10 Kilo's. The best way to prosecute a sub is with another sub.

[IDonT]

Pakistan has the advantages in Naval Aviation and Submarines. But the Surface Fleet lacks in numbers when compared to the IN. If you ask me Pakistan needs to enhance it's littoral capabilites, I know new patrol boats are coming from Turkey, but their should be a new platform for the Babur!


Currently, Pakistan does NOT have any advantages in submarines and naval aviation.

It has only 2 Agosta B's vs 10 improved Kilos and 2 HDW subs.
It's fleet air arm is limited to patrol aircraft of P-3, which is very vulnerable, and has no organic airdefence for its ships other than the PAF.

Indian NAval aviation has a single harrier squadron based on the Viraat, Tu-142, Helo AEW,etc

[adeptitus]

Currently, Pakistan does NOT have any advantages in submarines and naval aviation.

It has only 2 Agosta B's vs 10 improved Kilos and 2 HDW subs.
It's fleet air arm is limited to patrol aircraft of P-3, which is very vulnerable, and has no organic airdefence for its ships other than the PAF.

Indian NAval aviation has a single harrier squadron based on the Viraat, Tu-142, Helo AEW,etc

I think India has 4 HDW subs, but donno how many are in operation.

Pakistan is known to have has 2 x Agosta 90B + 1 in construction, 4 x Agosta 70, 4 x Daphne, & 2 x MG110 midget sybs.

[ArjunMk1]

Why this thread is becoming another Indo-Pak batte ground ??? :confused:

Ok, as an Indian here are my points:
1. Giving a new name does not make an old tank completely new !!! :rofl:
Calling T55 Alzarrar and Type 90 as Alkhalid does not make them a new valient tank systems . Type 90 is a dated design which is not even inducted by the Chinese forces !! While in Pakistan it got a new name(Alkhalid) and at once became the most powerful tank !!!!!! :roll:

2. Pakistani sub and naval avaition is no match to that of India . Pakistani navy consists of few survillence aircrafts (Atantic, P3) and choppers . PAF naval squadron has Mirages with no BVR or look down -shoot down . Though I heard that the grifo radar fitted in some Mirages( MirageIII rose) has limited look down shoot down capability.
While Indian navy has a large no of Transport and survillance aircrafts and a vast feet of rotary wings !! India has Harrier jets which operate from its carrier . Harriers are now getting upgraded with BVR and better radar & aveonics . In near future Mig 29(naval) are going to come with Russian carrier Amiral Gorshkov !!!
IAF's deicated naval arm consists of Mirage 200s, Jaguars an SU 30 aircrafts !!!

[Fairthought]

Why this thread is becoming another Indo-Pak batte ground ??? :confused:

Ok, as an Indian here are my points:
1. Giving a new name does not make an old tank completely new !!! :rofl:
Calling T55 Alzarrar and Type 90 as Alkhalid does not make them a new valient tank systems . Type 90 is a dated design which is not even inducted by the Chinese forces !! While in Pakistan it got a new name(Alkhalid) and at once became the most powerful tank !!!!!! :roll:

2. Pakistani sub and naval avaition is no match to that of India . Pakistani navy consists of few survillence aircrafts (Atantic, P3) and choppers . PAF naval squadron has Mirages with no BVR or look down -shoot down . Though I heard that the grifo radar fitted in some Mirages( MirageIII rose) has limited look down shoot down capability.
While Indian navy has a large no of Transport and survillance aircrafts and a vast feet of rotary wings !! India has Harrier jets which operate from its carrier . Harriers are now getting upgraded with BVR and better radar & aveonics . In near future Mig 29(naval) are going to come with Russian carrier Amiral Gorshkov !!!
IAF's deicated naval arm consists of Mirage 200s, Jaguars an SU 30 aircrafts !!!


There needs to be some aspect in which this involves China, a pure Indo-Pakistani debate will not interest most readers of this forum.

However, an Indo-Pakistani naval conflict in 2012 may draw in China. Any Sino-Indian naval conflict in the Indian Ocean will definitely draw in Pakistan.

Arjun, I have a question about your statements:

As I learned, the Mirage 2000's that India obtained in small number from Qatar is not dedicated to the Naval arm, but remains under strategic air command center. When did it become dedicated to the Naval arm?

Also, do not forget the 20 or so Pakistani Mirage V's equipped with Exocet missiles. Do you beleive any ship in the Indian navy is immune to the Exocet? There is no Aegis system, short of the newest British Type 45, capable of assuring protection from the Exocet. Even the US navy accepts British Type 45 escorts from time to time to assure better protection in hot spots. This will remain until the US develops their next generation of AEGIS systems.

I expect Some Chinese submarines in the Arabian Sea in 2012. This is of grave concern to the lone Indian carrier in the region. In the end, it will be India's land based airforce which will suppress the Mirage V's and their dreaded Exocets. The Harriers won't do the job.


Finally, What would the start of a Sino-Indian naval conflict look like?

One speculative scenario:

Indian navy interdicts shipping to Pakistan looking for secret weapon caches purchased from North Korea. North Korean vessels regularly sail under false flag -usually China's. India may 'accidentally' interdict and board Chinese vessels they suspect of transporting arms to Pakistan. Chinese protest leads to sending a show of force. Chinese fleet visits Pakistan's harbor. Indian Navy, suspecting it has the advantage, attempts to blockade the Harbor.

The Haggis hits the fan.

[ArjunMk1]

However, an Indo-Pakistani naval conflict in 2012 may draw in China. Any Sino-Indian naval conflict in the Indian Ocean will definitely draw in Pakistan.

India vs China + Pak will be a very interesting topic !!! :nana:


Arjun, I have a question about your statements:

As I learned, the Mirage 2000's that India obtained in small number from Qatar is not dedicated to the Naval arm, but remains under strategic air command center. When did it become dedicated to the Naval arm?

India obtained abt 50 Mirages from France :) !! Currently it is negotiating for 10 mirages which are with Quatar .
For Indian Mirage specs go here: http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/IAF/Aircraft/Specs/Mirage-2000.html


Also, do not forget the 20 or so Pakistani Mirage V's equipped with Exocet missiles. Do you beleive any ship in the Indian navy is immune to the Exocet? There is no Aegis system, short of the newest British Type 45, capable of assuring protection from the Exocet. Even the US navy accepts British Type 45 escorts from time to time to assure better protection in hot spots. This will remain until the US develops their next generation of AEGIS systems.


**** Excocets have range of 40kms !! So they need to be launched within 35kms , its pretty within the range of Harriers they can detect Mirages before they are within firing range . Moreover Indian carrier group operates advanced
AEW radars on its Kamov(KA 31) they can detect arial targets (aircraft or missile) at a range of 150 kms .
Indian ships carry Israeli Barak and Russian Shitil air defence missiles .
So Excocet is no threat !!!

More over Harriers are getting upgraded with Elta radars and Derby BVR missile. Indian ships will be having Indian made trishul and akash SAMS which will provide more protection .



I expect Some Chinese submarines in the Arabian Sea in 2012. This is of grave concern to the lone Indian carrier in the region. In the end, it will be India's land based airforce which will suppress the Mirage V's and their dreaded Exocets. The Harriers won't do the job.


By 2012 India will have three carriers and Naval Mig29 , LCAs and also upgraded Harriers operating from them !! :)

And Carriers do't go alone they are flanked by frigates ,destroyers and subs !!

[vincelee]

indians still talking about the LCA?

[IDonT]

There needs to be some aspect in which this involves China, a pure Indo-Pakistani debate will not interest most readers of this forum.

However, an Indo-Pakistani naval conflict in 2012 may draw in China. Any Sino-Indian naval conflict in the Indian Ocean will definitely draw in Pakistan.

Arjun, I have a question about your statements:

As I learned, the Mirage 2000's that India obtained in small number from Qatar is not dedicated to the Naval arm, but remains under strategic air command center. When did it become dedicated to the Naval arm?

Also, do not forget the 20 or so Pakistani Mirage V's equipped with Exocet missiles. Do you beleive any ship in the Indian navy is immune to the Exocet? There is no Aegis system, short of the newest British Type 45, capable of assuring protection from the Exocet. Even the US navy accepts British Type 45 escorts from time to time to assure better protection in hot spots. This will remain until the US develops their next generation of AEGIS systems.

I expect Some Chinese submarines in the Arabian Sea in 2012. This is of grave concern to the lone Indian carrier in the region. In the end, it will be India's land based airforce which will suppress the Mirage V's and their dreaded Exocets. The Harriers won't do the job.


Finally, What would the start of a Sino-Indian naval conflict look like?

One speculative scenario:

Indian navy interdicts shipping to Pakistan looking for secret weapon caches purchased from North Korea. North Korean vessels regularly sail under false flag -usually China's. India may 'accidentally' interdict and board Chinese vessels they suspect of transporting arms to Pakistan. Chinese protest leads to sending a show of force. Chinese fleet visits Pakistan's harbor. Indian Navy, suspecting it has the advantage, attempts to blockade the Harbor.

The Haggis hits the fan.

PLAN in the Indian Ocean will have to fight the IN on its home turf. Its logistical tail will be enourmous and will have to go through the Straights of Malacca. India owns the Andaman and Nicobar Islands that effectively guard the straight and has stationed several squadrons of fighter bombers there.

Furthermore, it cannot bring about its full strength. It still needs several ships to protect its interest back home. Japan might take advantage of the situation.

Ships on a blockaded harbor have a huge disadvantage. They cannot manuever and their exact location is known. A political solution would be a viable option.

Indian ships are being equipped with the BARAK sams. The Viraat and the 3 Delhi class destroyers already have them. I believe they can intercept an exocet. Can any of the PLAN ships intercept the URan and Brahmos missiles?

PLAN's lack of aircraft carriers will be its main disadvantage. The naval task force with out air cover operating within range of the IAF are very vulnerable.

[Gollevainen]

Well not to take too much part on the conversation (i dont like much of waging imaginary wars), But i have taken notice that the acompanied list included few Akulas and ATVs for indian navy. Now, if IN would be able to field four-to-six nuclear attack submarines, it will greatly increases the capapilityes of Indian isde and effectively blocks any chinese surface precence in Indian ocean (at least if following the same logic that some of here manifests; that similar number of chinese inferior SSNs will imobileze entire indian fleet and its advantage in carrier operations)
Much in here has been said about Indian isdes lack of ASw, but what can be said about chinese ASW?? they poses no long range martime patrol aircraft and are only about to introdut an medium range platform based on An-12 (whit roughly same performance as Il-38) and The only thinkable operational carrier for china in 2012 can only deliver squardon of Kamov helicopters.

At least now, none of the new chinese surface combatants are dedicated ASW platforms, but more of multirole ships, whit adequite subhunting capapilityes and older ships lacks even that. It is also note worthy that chinese side requires esential replenishment and support units also be present and those offers a target to IN scorpenes and Kilos that they just cannot refuse...

[IDonT]

How about we push the war date back to 2006

[Gollevainen]

It will only worsen chinese situation, as all thats left for chinese Indian ocean squardon are few old noisy nuke subs and maybe one of these new and mystic 093 still running trials so maybe too risky to send into flame zone... No carrier, only one additional sovromenyy and maybe the 051C ready for service...

In these kind of scenarios, time is the best avantage forr china so we could asume it has been able to modernizese its forces properly...

[FreeAsia2000]

How about we look at Pakistan's assets and see how they can brought into play

1. Support from China

2. Support from all the countries in the mid-east

3. Pakistan might also start looking at complicating matters for India
via Indonesia and Malaysia. Pakistan has a lot of contacts there and they
won't be too pleased with a large Indian navy

Ok lets play

[IDonT]

How about we look at Pakistan's assets and see how they can brought into play

1. Support from China

2. Support from all the countries in the mid-east

3. Pakistan might also start looking at complicating matters for India
via Indonesia and Malaysia. Pakistan has a lot of contacts there and they
won't be too pleased with a large Indian navy

Ok lets play

Sadly, the Pakistani navy is outclassed by the Indian navy in all departments.
Except for the 2 Agosta B, PN is dwarft in both quantity and quality.

In the Submarine force, PN is outnumbered by 10 Improve Kilo with Club missiles, and 2 HDW SSK's.

For the Surface Fleet, PN does not have area air defence and its anti-ship punched is limited to harpoon and exocet missiles.

The PAF might be able to help. But again I doubet the PAF will be able to allocate significant assets when it is already out numbered by the IAF. Perhaps a squadron or 2 of Mirages for anti-ship duties can be spared from the western borders.

[ArjunMk1]

Does the naval conflict can escalate into land ??? :(

For example an armour thrust into India through Mayanmar and also the ensuring air conflicts !! What the Chinese guys think about this side of Indian Ocean conflict !!!!!!!

[crazyinsane105]

Sadly, the Pakistani navy is outclassed by the Indian navy in all departments.
Except for the 2 Agosta B, PN is dwarft in both quantity and quality.

In the Submarine force, PN is outnumbered by 10 Improve Kilo with Club missiles, and 2 HDW SSK's.

For the Surface Fleet, PN does not have area air defence and its anti-ship punched is limited to harpoon and exocet missiles.

The PAF might be able to help. But again I doubet the PAF will be able to allocate significant assets when it is already out numbered by the IAF. Perhaps a squadron or 2 of Mirages for anti-ship duties can be spared from the western borders.

I think you forgot to mention the fact that Pakistan has the Babur missile which can be made into an anti-ship missile. Also, we are talking about 2012 here. We can expect relatively large numbers of JF-17 aircraft within Pakistan's arsenal along with some numbers of another 4th generation aircraft (it can be the J-10, Gripen, etc.) Another thing is that the JF-17 will probably be able to hold Chinese made anti-ship missiles. Let's say it can hold up to 3 anti-ship missiles. Two squadrons consisting of 15 aircraft each armed with anti-ship missiles and being escorted by either F-16's or the other 4th generation fighter can be a very deadly force. Now, I am not saying both squadrons are flying towards the IN fleet. I am saying that maybe 8 JF-17's along with 4 F-16's/other fighter to provide air defense can really wreck havoc upon the fleet. It would be about 24 anti-ship missiles coming towards the IN fleet (I cannot say for sure that they will be sub or supersonic, but they will most likely be supersonic). Add to the fact that an Agosta 90B nearby with upgraded electronic systems may also fire off a Babur (that is IF the Babur can be fitted onto the Agosta by 2012) and a torpedo. So that would be a saturated missile attack aimed at the Varyag carrier. Let's say about a third get through the defense shields. The Varyag would be mission killed. Or if Pakistan decides to target the Varyag's escorts, there will be more ships mission killed or even sunk. Right now, Pakistan is not in a very powerful military state. However, we are talking about 7 years from now what will happen. Just look at China seven years ago and look at where it is right now. Same thing will happen to Pakistan.

[crazyinsane105]

Does the naval conflict can escalate into land ??? :(

For example an armour thrust into India through Mayanmar and also the ensuring air conflicts !! What the Chinese guys think about this side of Indian Ocean conflict !!!!!!!

To tell you the truth, a naval escalation of this size can erupt into a full blown war between the countries so yes, it can and it will escalate into land. But for simplicity's sake, let's just talk about what is going to happen on the naval arena right now. It is very hard to judge what can happen on the land.

[IDonT]

Does the naval conflict can escalate into land ??? :(

For example an armour thrust into India through Mayanmar and also the ensuring air conflicts !! What the Chinese guys think about this side of Indian Ocean conflict !!!!!!!


The logistical problems of putting just a single armored division from China to Myanmar will strain even the US logistics, let alone supplying it with ammo, food, and fuel for combat operations. How many heavy divisions can CHina dispatched to Myanmar...be realistic considering its heavy logistical needs.

An armored thrust, assuming it can be prepared, will lose its steam due to the distances from the CHinese logistical base. Myanmar will stand to lose, once India regroups and counter attacks.

An air war perhaps can happen.

[IDonT]

I think you forgot to mention the fact that Pakistan has the Babur missile which can be made into an anti-ship missile. Also, we are talking about 2012 here. We can expect relatively large numbers of JF-17 aircraft within Pakistan's arsenal along with some numbers of another 4th generation aircraft (it can be the J-10, Gripen, etc.) Another thing is that the JF-17 will probably be able to hold Chinese made anti-ship missiles. Let's say it can hold up to 3 anti-ship missiles. Two squadrons consisting of 15 aircraft each armed with anti-ship missiles and being escorted by either F-16's or the other 4th generation fighter can be a very deadly force. Now, I am not saying both squadrons are flying towards the IN fleet. I am saying that maybe 8 JF-17's along with 4 F-16's/other fighter to provide air defense can really wreck havoc upon the fleet. It would be about 24 anti-ship missiles coming towards the IN fleet (I cannot say for sure that they will be sub or supersonic, but they will most likely be supersonic). Add to the fact that an Agosta 90B nearby with upgraded electronic systems may also fire off a Babur (that is IF the Babur can be fitted onto the Agosta by 2012) and a torpedo. So that would be a saturated missile attack aimed at the Varyag carrier. Let's say about a third get through the defense shields. The Varyag would be mission killed. Or if Pakistan decides to target the Varyag's escorts, there will be more ships mission killed or even sunk. Right now, Pakistan is not in a very powerful military state. However, we are talking about 7 years from now what will happen. Just look at China seven years ago and look at where it is right now. Same thing will happen to Pakistan.


If we are talking about 2012 here, then you must account for the advances that the IN and IAF will have made.

The Vikramaditya would have been commisioned with Mig 29K's, Akula SSN's, P-15 destroyers, and more Su-30 MKI into service.

[ArjunMk1]

2012 is a distant future think of today !! :D

By 2012 India will be having PAK FA stealth fighters, 1000km range supersonic cruise missiles , 400-500 Km upgraded Brahmos , nuclear subs , and a lot of other goodies !!




If land war is not feasible then what abt air war ??

[MIGleader]

2012 is a distant future think of today !! :D

By 2012 India will be having PAK FA stealth fighters, 1000km range supersonic cruise missiles , 400-500 Km upgraded Brahmos , nuclear subs , and a lot of other goodies !!




If land war is not feasible then what abt air war ??

pak fa my foot. theyll be lucky to have lca at the time. and a ground foghter would have little influence on a naval comflict.

think of 1998 and how far the indians have come, andu expect them to have this? the brahmos i may believe, cruise missle possibly, the nuke sub would be russian.

[Gollevainen]

By 2012 India will be having PAK FA stealth fighters, 1000km range supersonic cruise missiles , 400-500 Km upgraded Brahmos , nuclear subs , and a lot of other goodies !!

Well defenetly there isent gonna be no PAK-FAs nor MCAs in service (neither J-xxx and J-12s) but if LCA is then still in the state where it is now, some other plane have taken it's role...and 1000km supersonic cruise missile??? If then in service, only in russia if even there...but certainly not in India....

[jatt]

Extreme the IN in 2012 would be able to handle a cluster of subsonic or near mach 2 antiship missiles easily. The Aster-15/30 is tested against almost everythreat and can create a umberella like the Aegies system. ontop of that the Baraks, VLS Shytil and the Carriers which provide protection for the fleet against "J-10 Gripen".

[MIGleader]

Extreme the IN in 2012 would be able to handle a cluster of subsonic or near mach 2 antiship missiles easily. The Aster-15/30 is tested against almost everythreat and can create a umberella like the Aegies system. ontop of that the Baraks, VLS Shytil and the Carriers which provide protection for the fleet against "J-10 Gripen".

comparing a single system like aster to a full envelope like aegis is foolish. and it can only be tested against missles india has availabl. baraks...lmao...
vls shytil..you now that china will have it too. and its j-10 dragon. the gripen is a swedish fighter.

[DPRKUnderground]

If we are talking about 2012 here, then you must account for the advances that the IN and IAF will have made.

The Vikramaditya would have been commisioned with Mig 29K's, Akula SSN's, P-15 destroyers, and more Su-30 MKI into service.

If you didn't know, Pakistani pilots had a 5-1 kill ratio in the 1971 War, India had the latest Russian technology while Pakistan was operating later versions of the Sabres, J-6s and some F-104s. At the air excercise in Turkey it is said that Pakistan learned anti-BVR tactics, now that shows that the quality of Pakistani pilots has not deteriorated and that they can match up to Indian fighters in the future. By 2012, Pakistan could have another submarine, the new admiral, I forget is name, said Pakistan is looking for German submarines. Now Pakistan will have the Agosta 90Bs, then combine that with the German submarines which would most likely be a newer version of the Type-209, they could match the IN, who would still be operating Kilos which would be know match for 6 highly advanced European submarines. Akulas are aging, by 2012 they would be around for almost 30 years! Yes they would be effective, but going against highly adbanced European subs is a tough battle. If India has more than 4 Scorpenes, I think they would be equal when it comes to submarines. Now about Naval aviation. Pakistan would have 12 P-3Cs! More Alouettes, and 5 Z-9Cs! They would be supported by JF-17s armed w/ anti-ship missiles and possibly F-16s escorting them. the MiG-29s would have a tough time against them, even the Su-30s. India has the clear advantage when it comes to the surface fleet. But if Pakistan can dominate the air, it would have at least have a chance to win the war at sea.

[MIGleader]

the mki is undoubtedly one of the top 5 fighters in the world. and can easily carry brahmoses to attack pn ships. not even an f-16 can handle an mki. but lets not forget the chinese have mkks, j-10s, j-11s, sk;s, and the pakistanis have f-16s and fc-1s. the thais have harrier:(

[trkl]

PLAN:
varyag

51cx2
52cx2
52bx2
51bx2
52x2
sovremenyx4

54x4
53h3x10

93x4
94x2
92x1
songx10
yuanx4
kilox12


I think this list significantly underestimates the force that PLAN will have in 2012. All of the surface ships, except for the aircraft carrier, should be ready by 2007. It is harder to tell when the subs will be ready, especially for the nuclear subs, but most of them should be ready by 2007 as well. Is PLAN just going to sit and do nothing for 5 years?

It is difficult to predict exactly what PLAN will have in 2012, but it is a safe assumption that they will have more than just the vessels listed. More likely than not, PLAN will have whole new classes of ships and new weapons systems. It makes the whole discussion kind of pointless if no one has any idea what PLAN will be feilding in 2012.

[crazyinsane105]

the mki is undoubtedly one of the top 5 fighters in the world. and can easily carry brahmoses to attack pn ships. not even an f-16 can handle an mki. but lets not forget the chinese have mkks, j-10s, j-11s, sk;s, and the pakistanis have f-16s and fc-1s. the thais have harrier:(

Actually, an F-16 armed with AMRAAM can take on the MKI at BVR range. For dog fighting, the Aim-9X can take on the MKI as well. The PAF wouldn't have picked the F-16 if it couldn't stand up against the MKI. I don't think it is wise to say, "Nothing can handle and MKI or MKK." Crazy things happen during war. And when you looked at the past kill ratios of the PAF and IAF, who would have beleived before those kill ratios that the PAF could stand up against the IAF?

[IDonT]

Actually, an F-16 armed with AMRAAM can take on the MKI at BVR range. For dog fighting, the Aim-9X can take on the MKI as well. The PAF wouldn't have picked the F-16 if it couldn't stand up against the MKI. I don't think it is wise to say, "Nothing can handle and MKI or MKK." Crazy things happen during war. And when you looked at the past kill ratios of the PAF and IAF, who would have beleived before those kill ratios that the PAF could stand up against the IAF?

1971 was 35 years ago. Indian pilots now train with more resources as well as exercises with regional powers. Basing the outcome of the next war on how your pilots did 35 years ago is not the way to go.

[IDonT]

Indian air to air victories vs Pakistani air to air victories

http://www.acig.org/artman/publish/article_327.shtml

http://www.acig.org/artman/publish/article_324.shtml

Interesting info.

[IDonT]

Indian Naval Aviation

http://www.acig.org/artman/publish/article_431.shtml
http://www.acig.org/artman/publish/article_432.shtml

[tphuang]

It's actually utterly hilarious reading Pakistanis and Indians going at it.

To Pakistanis:
If you think your navy or airforce is better or is going to be better than India's, you are delusional. Stick to getting defensive minded equipments.

To Indians:
PAK-FA is said to be entering services in 2015 by the Russian!!!! It only just finished concept drawing recently and is just entering wind tunnel testing. Considering the past Russian projects overruns, you probably won't see PAK-FA until after 2015.
Aster 15/30 + Shtil compared to Aegis? You guys crack me up.
400-500 KM Brahmos? You guys are going to have to show that you can produce a missile on your own instead of co-developing it with Russians in projects where the Russians do 95% of the work. Remember, the MTCR guideline restricts to exportation of cruise misisles to under 300KM in range.

[MIGleader]

Actually, an F-16 armed with AMRAAM can take on the MKI at BVR range. For dog fighting, the Aim-9X can take on the MKI as well. The PAF wouldn't have picked the F-16 if it couldn't stand up against the MKI. I don't think it is wise to say, "Nothing can handle and MKI or MKK." Crazy things happen during war. And when you looked at the past kill ratios of the PAF and IAF, who would have beleived before those kill ratios that the PAF could stand up against the IAF?

this is the same mki that kills falcons. the one with french avionics and tvc. and bars. its only competitiors could be the eurofighter, rafale, or f-22. when at far range, the mki can make a good fight to the f-16, all the while trying to get closer and increase its advantage.

[tphuang]

as for f-16 vs mki, it comes down to which block of f-16 you are talking about:
If you equip F-16 with APG-81, AIM-120C and the latest engine like the one for block 60, it'd be able to take mki on, but PAF isn't going to get that. PAF probably will get a earlier version of block 50 or in some cases MLUs (which are just F-16A/B airframe/engine with block 50/52 electronics and weapons). That will have serious problems against MKIs.

[crazyinsane105]

It's actually utterly hilarious reading Pakistanis and Indians going at it.

To Pakistanis:
If you think your navy or airforce is better or is going to be better than India's, you are delusional. Stick to getting defensive minded equipments.

To Indians:
PAK-FA is said to be entering services in 2015 by the Russian!!!! It only just finished concept drawing recently and is just entering wind tunnel testing. Considering the past Russian projects overruns, you probably won't see PAK-FA until after 2015.
Aster 15/30 + Shtil compared to Aegis? You guys crack me up.
400-500 KM Brahmos? You guys are going to have to show that you can produce a missile on your own instead of co-developing it with Russians in projects where the Russians do 95% of the work. Remember, the MTCR guideline restricts to exportation of cruise misisles to under 300KM in range.

You just can't beleive how many people in PDF think that. I am a Pakistani but honestly, the IAF and IN are in much better shape than the PN. Now, I did make arguements how PN can fight, but only defensively. I can't see PN winning against the IN singlehandedly. Same goes with the PAF. The PAF can really hurt the IAF, but the PAF is a purely defensive force while the IAF is both a defensive and offensive one. Even with the induction of F-16's, JF-17's, and even another fighter jet, PAF will still have to deal with a huge IAF along with a thick air defense system. So PAF will still be a defensive force for another decade or so.

As for the IAF, well, I would like to know exactly what makes many Indians think that they will actually get the PAK FA. Who is the US going to give its F-22's to? Nobody. They aren't even going to give it to Israel (the US has yet to give Israel stealth tech). So why would the Russians give away their stealth plane? And EVEN if they decide to sell it, it won't be until AFTER it has been inducted into the Russian air force (and God knows how long that will take). So maybe after 2020 the IAF can get the PAK FA. As for the Brahmos, the Russians have access to the codes so that really raises questions on who made the Brahmos after all. And the IN has NOTHING compared to the Aegis and won't for a while. Yes, the Barak is a good system, but I doubt it has anything near the Aegis system. A saturated missile attack can most likely cause the system to fail. I have yet to hear of the Barak shooting down supersonic missiles (at least the USN tests the Aegis against supersonic targets). So MigLeader, very good point.

On a positive note, this conversation is very professional. If this same conversation was taking place on PDF or some other Pakistani or Indian forum, we all have a good idea of the type of language that would be used.

[trkl]

Russia needs money to develop the PAK-FA and they have offered India a joint development program. I havent heard any comfermation the India has accepted, but most Indians believe that India will. If India is funding part of the PAK-FA program, they will definately be getting PAK-FAs as soon as it is ready, and probably with ToT.

[crazyinsane105]

Russia needs money to develop the PAK-FA and they have offered India a joint development program. I havent heard any comfermation the India has accepted, but most Indians believe that India will. If India is funding part of the PAK-FA program, they will definately be getting PAK-FAs as soon as it is ready, and probably with ToT.

A couple of months ago, Russia was asking for the EU's help with the PAK FA. I'll try to dig out the article, but it sorta shows that India was not (probably at that time, don't know now) giving enough funding for it.

[jatt]

About me comparing the Aster 15/30 to Aegies? They are comparable but I never said the Aegies was inferior. The Standard missile is inferior if you compare it to the Aster! No competition. BTW the ASTER is the only other Naval Sam system that can provide a umberella LIKE the Aegies. No it can't track thousands of targets and guide the missiles but it can do less which is enough.

[ArjunMk1]

Is this news of Russia threatning to retain Brahmos' source code is real? I knew that its an unconfirmed one !! :(


Russia has the intellectual property of Brahmos' source code (only for the missile launcher system) . Original design of Brahmos is definately with India . But since its a joint production there are certain protocols for legalisation.

[Fairthought]

Russia is just using their Intellectual property rights issues to remind India they are not pleased they did not recently win the Indian naval contract for new submarines.

[IDonT]

It's actually utterly hilarious reading Pakistanis and Indians going at it.

To Pakistanis:
If you think your navy or airforce is better or is going to be better than India's, you are delusional. Stick to getting defensive minded equipments.

To Indians:
PAK-FA is said to be entering services in 2015 by the Russian!!!! It only just finished concept drawing recently and is just entering wind tunnel testing. Considering the past Russian projects overruns, you probably won't see PAK-FA until after 2015.
Aster 15/30 + Shtil compared to Aegis? You guys crack me up.
400-500 KM Brahmos? You guys are going to have to show that you can produce a missile on your own instead of co-developing it with Russians in projects where the Russians do 95% of the work. Remember, the MTCR guideline restricts to exportation of cruise misisles to under 300KM in range.

Isn't the SU-30 MKI one of the best aircraft in the world? It might even be superior to the ones the PLAAF has. These planes do not need replacement until after 2015.

It's just a matter of pride for the Indians to say that they can developed the Brahmos. I mean in war, the last thing on your mind when Brahmos is targeting you is how much the Indian part of its development was.

The truth is, in the Indian ocean, India is second only to the US in power projection and capability. Any chinese outpost or base within the perephiry of India will the priority target if hostilities start. China will not have sufficient capability to reinforced it in force as long as the Indian navy guards the Indian ocean mouth to the Malacca Straights.

[ArjunMk1]

The truth is, in the Indian ocean, India is second only to the US in power projection and capability. Any chinese outpost or base within the perephiry of India will the priority target if hostilities start. China will not have sufficient capability to reinforced it in force as long as the Indian navy guards the Indian ocean mouth to the Malacca Straights.

Very true !! :cool:
And China is the second strongest in east and south China sea next to US. :D Though Japan can emerge as the strongest at any time due to their advanced technical knoledge and economy !!!


It seems that a Chinese attacking armada is not going to bite in Indian ocean but what will happen if India attacks ?? Imagine an Indian battle group supported by two (or one ) carriers set sail deep into Malacca strait . What will happen if India decides to challenge China in Gulf of Thailand or along south Vietnam coast !!!
Assuming the close ties between Vietnam and India , Vietnam decides to let its ports( Ho chi min city ?) used by Indian Navy !!

[crazyinsane105]

Well, by 2012, the PLAN's capability should have grown tremendously. The problem with predicting the PLAN's capability is that much of China's weapon's projects are shrouded in secrecy while for the IN, it is more known to the public. So I think that it would be safe to acknowledge the strength of the PN and IN by 2012, but the PLAN? Probably not. Who knows what can happen by 2012? Hell, the PLAN could probaby have 2 squadrons of Backfires by then along with Su-35bm's as interceptors. We really can't be sure.

[FreeAsia2000]

You just can't beleive how many people in PDF think that. I am a Pakistani but honestly, the IAF and IN are in much better shape than the PN. Now, I did make arguements how PN can fight, but only defensively. I can't see PN winning against the IN singlehandedly. Same goes with the PAF.

On a positive note, this conversation is very professional. If this same conversation was taking place on PDF or some other Pakistani or Indian forum, we all have a good idea of the type of language that would be used.

I agree with crazyinsane. Nice to see the conversation can be kept civil.

ok in Naval and Aerial terms there is no way that the Pakistani military can take on India mostly because India has more equipment. I'm not sure about the training for Indian pilots especially because of their incredible attrition (something like 200 in a decade) rate.

So basically Pakistan will be using strategy to outmanouvere Indian technological and qualitative assets.

Essentially Pakistan hopes to use missiles and mines to deny India access to middle eastern oil in the event of war. Pakistan's orthodox naval forces will be based in the West. Gwadar will be a part of this because one of the terms of the secret Gawadar friendship treaty between Pakistan - China will be that in the event of war China will issue a warning that any attack on Gwadar will be deemed an attack on China. That should considerably complicate Indian naval tasks. So in the West Pakistan follows an orthodox strategy

Pakistan has also been pursuing an unorthodox strategy by attempting to tie down as much of the IN in the East as possible. Whilst most of the south Eastern nations distrust China Pakistan has been cultivating it's Islamic contacts there by advising them of the benefits of friendship with China and dangers of Indian hegemony

The Pakistani naval ship, Babur , a destroyer and the ocean going tanker Nasar (Chinese built) had visited Lakgkawai, Malaysia to participate in the LIMA2003 (Langkawi International Maritime and Air show). There are several Malaysian officers undergoing military training courses in Pakistan. In March 2003, Pakistan participated in the International Defense Exhibition and Conference in Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates and the French Agosta 90B submarine built at the KSEW was on display.

Pakistan is steadily but surely expanding ties in South Asia and Southeast Asia particularly with Islamic countries. The economic and political isolation due to its nuclear tests in 1998, its role in triggering the Kargil conflict, and Musharraf's 1999 bloodless coup are events of the past. It is courting Myanmar and Bangladesh. Interestingly, Pakistan Navy was the first foreign navy to pay a visit to Myanmar. Bangladesh is contemplating to purchase a second hand submarine from Pakistan. Importantly, countries like Myanmar, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Indonesia and Brunei will emerge as a strong staging post for the eastward Pakistani expansion to offer a strategic leverage in dealing with India.

http://www.observerindia.com/analysis/A268.htm

In February 2001, a small delegation from Pakistan visited Maldives to boost cultural ties. "The Pakistanis put pressure on Male to facilitate Chinese plans for a naval base," said an official. "China used Pakistan to play the Islamic card with Maldives."

China is close to striking a formal deal with Maldives for Marao. It will use Marao islands for 25 years on lease and pay back Maldives in foreign currency and create jobs for the locals dependent entirely on tourism and fishing.

Superpower ambitions

The Marao base's principal aim would be to contain the Indian navy. "China," said a naval official, "is worried that the Indian Navy is getting more natural islets in the Indian Ocean and Bay of Bengal to establish bases that can impose a sea denial on China in case of a conflict in the South China Sea and harm Chinese interests in the Indian Ocean region."

But the Marao base is not expected to be operational until 2010. In the interim, according to a November 2000 white paper on China's national defence, PLAN and PLA's naval air force could deploy a minimum of two aircraft carrier battle groups and five submarine groups in the Indian Ocean. Oilers, AWACS and refueling aircraft will support these groups.

http://www.dhivehiobserver.com/speicalreports/China-base-in-Maldives0705051.htm

Of course Pakistan hasn't really moved into full gear yet when it comes to Indonesia and Malaysia but once Pakistan lays out the full scope of India's ambitions 'to dominate the Indian ocean'...India will have to think of many factors

[IDonT]

I agree with crazyinsane. Nice to see the conversation can be kept civil.

ok in Naval and Aerial terms there is no way that the Pakistani military can take on India mostly because India has more equipment. I'm not sure about the training for Indian pilots especially because of their incredible attrition (something like 200 in a decade) rate.

So basically Pakistan will be using strategy to outmanouvere Indian technological and qualitative assets.

Essentially Pakistan hopes to use missiles and mines to deny India access to middle eastern oil in the event of war. Pakistan's orthodox naval forces will be based in the West. Gwadar will be a part of this because one of the terms of the secret Gawadar friendship treaty between Pakistan - China will be that in the event of war China will issue a warning that any attack on Gwadar will be deemed an attack on China. That should considerably complicate Indian naval tasks. So in the West Pakistan follows an orthodox strategy

Pakistan has also been pursuing an unorthodox strategy by attempting to tie down as much of the IN in the East as possible. Whilst most of the south Eastern nations distrust China Pakistan has been cultivating it's Islamic contacts there by advising them of the benefits of friendship with China and dangers of Indian hegemony



http://www.observerindia.com/analysis/A268.htm



http://www.dhivehiobserver.com/speicalreports/China-base-in-Maldives0705051.htm

Of course Pakistan hasn't really moved into full gear yet when it comes to Indonesia and Malaysia but once Pakistan lays out the full scope of India's ambitions 'to dominate the Indian ocean'...India will have to think of many factors

Gwadar also has the added advantage of being further away from India than Karachi. However, Karachi today is Pakistan's only deep water port. One of the Indian NAvy's first moves will be to blockade it, thereby forcing the PN to try to break the blockade. PN assets will be concetrated on Karachi, effectively neutralizing Gwadar without firing a shot. A blockade on Karachi does not necessarily mean within close proximaty to Pakistan.

By this point, I think Pakistan will use nukes. I believe they 3 scenarios when they will use nukes.

1.) If large amounts of their land is captured
2.) If large portions of their airforce is destroyed
3.) If Pakistan is cut off from international trade.

[crazyinsane105]

Gwadar also has the added advantage of being further away from India than Karachi. However, Karachi today is Pakistan's only deep water port. One of the Indian NAvy's first moves will be to blockade it, thereby forcing the PN to try to break the blockade. PN assets will be concetrated on Karachi, effectively neutralizing Gwadar without firing a shot. A blockade on Karachi does not necessarily mean within close proximaty to Pakistan.

By this point, I think Pakistan will use nukes. I believe they 3 scenarios when they will use nukes.

1.) If large amounts of their land is captured
2.) If large portions of their airforce is destroyed
3.) If Pakistan is cut off from international trade.

I think that India won't push Pakistan that far into using nukes. If Gwadar is fully operational, than blocking Karachi would not have adverse effects upon Pakistan. Much of the trade would then start to enter from Gwadar. And by 2012, I think it is possible that Gwadar can become a major trading hub. So the Indians would be forced to block Gwadar one way or the other.

[tphuang]

Isn't the SU-30 MKI one of the best aircraft in the world? It might even be superior to the ones the PLAAF has. These planes do not need replacement until after 2015.

mki is, but I was just referring to PAK FA statement.

It's just a matter of pride for the Indians to say that they can developed the Brahmos. I mean in war, the last thing on your mind when Brahmos is targeting you is how much the Indian part of its development was.

again, this was directed at the statement that the Indians can develop a 400/500 KM Brahmos.

The truth is, in the Indian ocean, India is second only to the US in power projection and capability. Any chinese outpost or base within the perephiry of India will the priority target if hostilities start. China will not have sufficient capability to reinforced it in force as long as the Indian navy guards the Indian ocean mouth to the Malacca Straights.
Very true. All the arguments about whether India or China has better navy is quite irrelevant, since they cannot beat each other at their backyard.

[crazyinsane105]

Thing with PLAN and IN is that they can only fight in their own turfs for now. The IN won't stand a chance against the PLAN in the South China Sea and the PLAN won't stand a chance against the IN in the Indian Ocean. However, we are discussing 2012 and that is a LONG time from now. We can more easily predict the IN's aquistions by then than we can about the PLAN (reason being that Chinese military projects are usually shrouded in secrecy).

[FriedRiceNSpice]

Thing with PLAN and IN is that they can only fight in their own turfs for now. The IN won't stand a chance against the PLAN in the South China Sea and the PLAN won't stand a chance against the IN in the Indian Ocean. However, we are discussing 2012 and that is a LONG time from now. We can more easily predict the IN's aquistions by then than we can about the PLAN (reason being that Chinese military projects are usually shrouded in secrecy).

Agreed. That sums it up perfectly. Need we continue?

[crazyinsane105]

Agreed. That sums it up perfectly. Need we continue?

Well, it has been an extremely interesting conversation so far. It would be sad to see it end right now. :(

How about a different scenario:

We ARE talking about 2012 here and that is 7 years. Yes, the PLAN and the IN and even the PN would have drastically changed by then in terms of strenght/projection capabilities, manpower, finance, etc. So by 2012, there is a possibility the IN could be fielding about 2 aircraft battle carrier groups and the PLAN would probably have one. But let's throw in something interesting: let's say Pakistan actually allows China to not only dock warships at or near Gwadar, but also gives China permission to have several squadrons of mutli-purpose fighter aircraft (su-35bm) based by Gwadar in Pakistani airfields. Along with the fighter bombers, there would be an AWAC and 1-2 refueling tankers. Also, there would be a sizable force of diesel subs in the area (let's say 6-8) along with some surface ships. If there is a PLAN+PN incident vs IN incident, how will it play out?

[FriedRiceNSpice]

Su-35bms...
Are the MKIs still India's best at this time?
And how much of the PLAN is deployed in Gwadar?

[crazyinsane105]

Su-35bms...
Are the MKIs still India's best at this time?
And how much of the PLAN is deployed in Gwadar?

MKI's would probably be the best the IAF would have at that time. Also, since this is 2012, the Taiwan conflict would probably have been resolved one way or another. So a good chunk of the PLAN would be there.

[jatt]

I largely agree that 2012 is pure speculation.
I'd also like to correct some forumers. I seriously doubt the IN would just deploy the PJ-10 AShM on her ships. I believe by that time the Sagrikia cruise missile would be ready. We know the existence of the missile and the ATV nuclear submarines. Its now a question of when.

[tphuang]

I largely agree that 2012 is pure speculation.
I'd also like to correct some forumers. I seriously doubt the IN would just deploy the PJ-10 AShM on her ships. I believe by that time the Sagrikia cruise missile would be ready. We know the existence of the missile and the ATV nuclear submarines. Its now a question of when.
sorry, can we get a little info on this cruise missile?

[crazyinsane105]

I largely agree that 2012 is pure speculation.
I'd also like to correct some forumers. I seriously doubt the IN would just deploy the PJ-10 AShM on her ships. I believe by that time the Sagrikia cruise missile would be ready. We know the existence of the missile and the ATV nuclear submarines. Its now a question of when.

The ATV subs are still under construction. Whether or not they will be successful remains a question. When China built its first nuclear sub, it was considered to be a large noisy tub by many Western sources. And even though for the most part it was, that nuke tech gave China MUCH NEEDED experience in this particular field. And guess what? The 094 is being classified as equivalent to the early Los Angeles class subs. Same thing could happen for India. The ATV may not be very useful in combat, but it will definetely give India's engineers much needed experience in building such submarines.

[trkl]

Even if PLANAF has some fighters in Pakistan, I think India's home field advantage would probably be too much. If you want a fair fight it should happen in the Strait of Malaka. For instance, say Singapore suddenly had a civil war, and China and India decided to support opposing sides. PLAN and the IN both send forces to support thier side and gain control over this very strategic area.

[IDonT]

Even if PLANAF has some fighters in Pakistan, I think India's home field advantage would probably be too much. If you want a fair fight it should happen in the Strait of Malaka. For instance, say Singapore suddenly had a civil war, and China and India decided to support opposing sides. PLAN and the IN both send forces to support thier side and gain control over this very strategic area.

It is highly unlikely that Singapore would go into a civilwar, Indonesia perhaps. China sends some forces to protect Ethnic Chinese and India sends some forces to "stabilize" the Straights of Malacca.

This area is very strategic, US, Japan and Korea will be involved because most if Japan and Korea's oil passess through here.

[ArjunMk1]

It is highly unlikely that Singapore would go into a civilwar, Indonesia perhaps. China sends some forces to protect Ethnic Chinese and India sends some forces to "stabilize" the Straights of Malacca.

How many ethinic Chinese live in Indonesia ? Do they own a considerable part of Business i.e, play a good role in economy ??

Here in India Beni Santosa of Salim group is seeking business. Is he a Chinese ??

[jatt]

We know it exists because its one of the worst kept secerts ever. But unfortunatly we don't know the statistics of the missiles. I know people who know but unfortunatly realising the information is restricted. When the information does get realised you'll be quite suprised from what "they" told me.

[FreeAsia2000]

How many ethinic Chinese live in Indonesia ? Do they own a considerable part of Business i.e, play a good role in economy ??

Here in India Beni Santosa of Salim group is seeking business. Is he a Chinese ??

A large number are in business. I think Beni Santosa may be a Indonesian Chinese Muslim. Oddly enough Chinese Muslims were instrumental in the spread of Islam to Indonesia. I hope that they can prevent the friction between the two communities.

Anyway back to topic.

Isn't India helping Iran to build a new port with links through Central Asia.
What if the IN was based there and PLAN was at Gwadar during war ? Would Iran
permit India to use the base ?

[ArjunMk1]

Isn't India helping Iran to build a new port with links through Central Asia.
What if the IN was based there and PLAN was at Gwadar during war ? Would Iran
permit India to use the base ?

Yes India was to help Iran in railroads, airport construction and perhaps a new port. I donno the details .

I don't think Gwadar will be a Chinese Naval base, rather it will be used to ship oil from Iran to China . It'll be an economical hub.

[trkl]

I don't think Gwadar will be a Chinese Naval base, rather it will be used to ship oil from Iran to China . It'll be an economical hub.

It will probably be both. It will be a big shipping hub, and there will also be a naval base there in order to protect all the ships.

[tphuang]

We know it exists because its one of the worst kept secerts ever. But unfortunatly we don't know the statistics of the missiles. I know people who know but unfortunatly realising the information is restricted. When the information does get realised you'll be quite suprised from what "they" told me.
lol, this has to be the first Indian system that I haven't heard being bragged about endlessly. It's better this way.

[crazyinsane105]

Even if PLANAF has some fighters in Pakistan, I think India's home field advantage would probably be too much. If you want a fair fight it should happen in the Strait of Malaka. For instance, say Singapore suddenly had a civil war, and China and India decided to support opposing sides. PLAN and the IN both send forces to support thier side and gain control over this very strategic area.

If PLAN is based at Gwadar, then the IN would have to be fighting the PAF and the PN at the same time. And even though the PAF and PN are not nearly as strong as the IAF or IN, it will drain much needed resources away from fighting the mightier PLAN. And I think several squadrons of Su-35bm's (or even much more high tech planes) can really turn the tide.

[jatt]

First off. Su-35BM? When did this happen?
Also you do not send all your squardrans against a single fleet, at the same time. That happens in games in statistics but not in reality. The enemy at most send 3-6 strike aircraft. To fend off these aircraft fleets usually have a carrier. The Carrier sends interceptors well beyond the line of SAM protection. If those fighters do launch anti-ship missiles, assuming its the IN. The ships have Barak, and AK-630 CIWS. Carriers have become of the most important assesets of Navies if they can be protected by the rest of the fleet.

[trkl]

First off. Su-35BM? When did this happen?


The Russians are trying to market Su-35BM to PLAAF. It is billed as the last major flanker upgrade before the PAK-FA replaces the flanker, and it will be ready in 2007 at the earliest (probably later). Personally I don't think China will buy any, but others at this forum think China will.

[tphuang]

The Russians are trying to market Su-35BM to PLAAF. It is billed as the last major flanker upgrade before the PAK-FA replaces the flanker, and it will be ready in 2007 at the earliest (probably later). Personally I don't think China will buy any, but others at this forum think China will.
the question is whether this will turn into another mki situation where the plane is not available for like 5 or 6 years. If the Russians actually have something to show China other than drawings and prototypes that can't fly off the ground, China might be tempted. Remember, su-35 was marketed to Brazil a while back, all of AFB favoured getting su-35 when they tested it out. But due to political pressure, they choose Mirage2K.

[crazyinsane105]

Jatt does have a valid point about the Su-35bm. So instead of the Su-35bm, how about an extremely advanced J-10 with European avionics (by that time, the embargo should lifted). And Jatt, I am in no way proposing that these aircraft fly all at once and attack the IN fleet. That would be quite ridiculous. Maybe one sqaudron at the most will fly: half of them as anti-ship and the rest as interceptors. So if you guys have doubts about the Su-35bm, substitute another high tech plane in (be it indigneous J-11B, advanced J-10, etc., but be reasonable: don't say anything like J-XX).

[trkl]

Even if the embargo does lift, the Europeans may not sell their most advanced stuff (like AESA radars) to China. I think that the best bet is to just assume that improved versions of J-10, J-11, FC-1, and JH-7 will be in service using improved indiginous technology(which should continue advancing at a rapid pace).

[DPRKUnderground]

You just can't beleive how many people in PDF think that. I am a Pakistani but honestly, the IAF and IN are in much better shape than the PN. Now, I did make arguements how PN can fight, but only defensively. I can't see PN winning against the IN singlehandedly. Same goes with the PAF. The PAF can really hurt the IAF, but the PAF is a purely defensive force while the IAF is both a defensive and offensive one. Even with the induction of F-16's, JF-17's, and even another fighter jet, PAF will still have to deal with a huge IAF along with a thick air defense system. So PAF will still be a defensive force for another decade or so.

As for the IAF, well, I would like to know exactly what makes many Indians think that they will actually get the PAK FA. Who is the US going to give its F-22's to? Nobody. They aren't even going to give it to Israel (the US has yet to give Israel stealth tech). So why would the Russians give away their stealth plane? And EVEN if they decide to sell it, it won't be until AFTER it has been inducted into the Russian air force (and God knows how long that will take). So maybe after 2020 the IAF can get the PAK FA. As for the Brahmos, the Russians have access to the codes so that really raises questions on who made the Brahmos after all. And the IN has NOTHING compared to the Aegis and won't for a while. Yes, the Barak is a good system, but I doubt it has anything near the Aegis system. A saturated missile attack can most likely cause the system to fail. I have yet to hear of the Barak shooting down supersonic missiles (at least the USN tests the Aegis against supersonic targets). So MigLeader, very good point.

On a positive note, this conversation is very professional. If this same conversation was taking place on PDF or some other Pakistani or Indian forum, we all have a good idea of the type of language that would be used.

I think some guys from the PDF opened a new better forum, much better. Go to www.***********.com, you won't have to deal w/ the annoying newbs and kiddie people who are like,"F-22, blah blah blah".
112 F-16MLUs and C/D Block 52s, JF-17s, and another fighter, either the J-10 or Gripen, It's a threatening Air Force. but when you compare it to India, who will have about 120 Su-30MKIs, 70 MiG-29s of multiple variants, and 50 Mirage 2000s, it isn't as threatening. Hopefully the skills of the Pakistani pilots could narrow the the technological difference. You should have read what Chuck Horner had to say about Pakistani pilots, they were so worried about the Iraqis b/c they got training from Pakistan. But he spoke to a Pakistani pilot who went to Iraq to train them. He said that Iraqi training was heavily dominated by the Soviets, who only taught them the basics

[jatt]

I do recall one of Harry B's posts about the MiG-27 in InAF service which happens to be used for maritime strike now. Apparently it's true that they are being used. Perhaps these are the ones that have recieved the MLU.

[crazyinsane105]

I think some guys from the PDF opened a new better forum, much better. Go to www.***********.com, you won't have to deal w/ the annoying newbs and kiddie people who are like,"F-22, blah blah blah".
112 F-16MLUs and C/D Block 52s, JF-17s, and another fighter, either the J-10 or Gripen, It's a threatening Air Force. but when you compare it to India, who will have about 120 Su-30MKIs, 70 MiG-29s of multiple variants, and 50 Mirage 2000s, it isn't as threatening. Hopefully the skills of the Pakistani pilots could narrow the the technological difference. You should have read what Chuck Horner had to say about Pakistani pilots, they were so worried about the Iraqis b/c they got training from Pakistan. But he spoke to a Pakistani pilot who went to Iraq to train them. He said that Iraqi training was heavily dominated by the Soviets, who only taught them the basics

When you compare size of Pakistan (geographically speaking), 112 F-16MLU's and C/D Block 52's, JF-17's, AWAC's, and another fighter plane is more than enough to defend Pakistan's airspace. Add to the fact that Pakistan will probably make some very large SAM purchases from China by 2012 (Chinese SAM technology by then should be equivalent to its European counterparts), the PAF along with air defense should cause the IAF enough of a headache. Remember, PAF is NOT an offensive force. All PAF has to do is to deny the IAF or any other enemy air supremacy over Pakistani air space. And I doubt that the IAF would be stupid enough to send waves and waves of Flankers into Pakistan. PAF cannot commence heavy offensive operations in India because of the numerical supermacy of the IAF and because of India's reasonable thick air defense system. So in my opinion, it would be a stalemate of some sort between PAF and IAF by 2012 if a war erupts. And since we are talking about a naval conflict in 2012, the entry of PAF can really take away badly needed resources from the IAF to strike at the PLAN. So the playing fields for all sides should be about the same.

[tphuang]

When you compare size of Pakistan (geographically speaking), 112 F-16MLU's and C/D Block 52's, JF-17's, AWAC's, and another fighter plane is more than enough to defend Pakistan's airspace. Add to the fact that Pakistan will probably make some very large SAM purchases from China by 2012 (Chinese SAM technology by then should be equivalent to its European counterparts), the PAF along with air defense should cause the IAF enough of a headache. Remember, PAF is NOT an offensive force. All PAF has to do is to deny the IAF or any other enemy air supremacy over Pakistani air space. And I doubt that the IAF would be stupid enough to send waves and waves of Flankers into Pakistan. PAF cannot commence heavy offensive operations in India because of the numerical supermacy of the IAF and because of India's reasonable thick air defense system. So in my opinion, it would be a stalemate of some sort between PAF and IAF by 2012 if a war erupts. And since we are talking about a naval conflict in 2012, the entry of PAF can really take away badly needed resources from the IAF to strike at the PLAN. So the playing fields for all sides should be about the same.
The Chinese SAM technology right now is probably equivalent to Europe. The things China learnt from Indigenizing S-300PMU/PMU2 into HQ-10/15 and other indigenous projects really helps.

[jatt]

Interesting.
26 October 2005
Inside Missile Defense

Lockheed Martin and Spanish shipbuilder Navantia performed successful initial at-sea testing of the first Aegis Weapon System equipped with the new SPY-1F radar, according to an Oct. 10 Lockheed Martin statement. The sea trials were conducted aboard a Norwegian frigate off the coast of Spain, the statement said.

....

Australia recently selected Aegis for its Air Warfare Destroyer program, and India has requested information on Aegis as well, Ross mentioned. Israel and a few other Mediterranean rim countries have expressed interest in parts of Aegis, but no sales are imminent at this time, he said.

On Oct. 12, Lockheed announced that Aegis moved to an open computing architecture with the successful integration and demonstration of multiple subsystems built with commercial system software.

A Lockheed statement said that Aegis open architecture will reduce the cost of the weapon system by allowing the Navy, and foreign navies, to install software and other technology upgrades faster and cheaper. -- Zachary M. Peterson

[crazyinsane105]

If India does get the Aegis, then Pakistan will request for something very similar to it. The US will have to give in because it will be hypocritical if they don't.

[jatt]

If India does get the Aegis, then Pakistan will request for something very similar to it. The US will have to give in because it will be hypocritical if they don't.
First. Can the Pak Navy afford something on the same lines? Second. You do realise that the US see's Pakistan as temporary ally on terrorism. Politics in the US could change. The US actually trusts India with more advanced technology than they trust the French. French would sell their souls anyways.

[crazyinsane105]

First. Can the Pak Navy afford something on the same lines? Second. You do realise that the US see's Pakistan as temporary ally on terrorism. Politics in the US could change. The US actually trusts India with more advanced technology than they trust the French. French would sell their souls anyways.

I guess it depends when the Indians ask for them. If the US decides to abandon Pakistan, then would be a good time to ask for the Aegis. Right now wouldn't be the best time because PN can afford something similar to it if it decides not to pursue the U-214's. And yes, for enough money the French would sell the rights to their soul and maybe even their entire country if the price is high enough. :rofl:

[Gollevainen]

"India ready to export BrahMos"
from the Hindu...

"MUMBAI: India has finally cleared the high-tech supersonic cruise missile, BrahMos, and Chile could be among the first buyers.

"The export of military hardware is no longer an issue, and we have started exporting the BrahMos," Vice-Admiral Madanjit Singh, Flag Officer Commanding-in-Chief, Western Naval Command, said on Thursday. He was addressing a seminar on "Navy-Industry Convergence: Challenges and Opportunities" here.

Later, he told reporters that Defence Minister Pranab Mukherjee and the CEO of BrahMos Aerospace, A. Sivathanu Pillai, were in Chile and finalisation of the missile deal was on the cards. Other countries were also in the process of placing orders for the missile, a result of Indo-Russian joint research. He did not name any country but said some in South-East Asia could be among them.

Missile capabilities


The BrahMos, with a range of 290 km, is capable of delivering an over 300-kg conventional warhead at twice or even thrice the speed of sound. It is the only supersonic missile of its class. The Navy has armed several of its warships, notably the Rajput class destroyers, with the BrahMos, essentially a long-range anti-ship weapon, for a coastal attack role.

The missile is multi-platform capable and a plan is afoot to arm Su-30 multirole aircraft with it for air-to-land combat. Its Army version for land-to-land combat was tested last year.

At the seminar, jointly organised by the Naval Dockyard, Mumbai, and the Confederation of Indian Industry to mark the 270th anniversary of the dockyard, Vice-Admiral Singh told industry that the Navy did not like to depend on foreign suppliers, particularly after the post-Pokhran II sanctions that resulted in its helicopters and fixed-wing aircraft grounded for want of spares. He called upon industry to join the indigenisation process.

20 more warships


The Navy, with 20 warships under construction at different shipyards, offered many an opportunity to the private ship building industry.

Even in large weapon procurement deals, for instance the recently-signed French submarine agreement, there were offset clauses requiring the suppliers to buy Indian components and systems. Industry could avail itself of these opportunities. Foreign suppliers were being encouraged to find an Indian industry partner.

Vic-Admiral Singh told reporters that the offset clause got lost in the documents until recently and the domestic industry did not benefit from it. Now the offsets were being pursued attentively. The implementation of the clause could be linked to the payment stages. Industry could also have tie-ups with the Defence Research and Development Organisation and defence public sector undertakings. He wanted an institutionalised approach to such partnerships.

The Navy was keen on a submarine programme, besides the just-concluded Scorpene deal. "We have operated several types of submarines all the time and now also we are having Russian and German submarines in our inventory." Other submarines were being evaluated for the second programme. To a question, Vice-Admiral Singh said the Navy examined and found the Russian Amur a good submarine but it all depended on the offer.

Asked about the indigenous Trishul surface-to-air missile, he said the Navy needed missiles four times more powerful in terms of range and strike capability. Unlike the BrahMos, the Trishul could not hit a supersonic cruise missile."

[MIGleader]

very interesting. only missle of its class? i think the yakont and yj-62 have quite similar abilities.

20 ships under contruction!!???!!
china only has like 2 destroyers, 6 subs, some transports, and possibly a carrier under construction.

america only has like 15,(burkes, a carrier, new lpds made from wtc...

[crazyinsane105]

very interesting. only missle of its class? i think the yakont and yj-62 have quite similar abilities.

20 ships under contruction!!???!!
china only has like 2 destroyers, 6 subs, some transports, and possibly a carrier under construction.

america only has like 15,(burkes, a carrier, new lpds made from wtc...

I doubt the IN has 20 ships under construction. Please explain how the IN can even afford that. Also, for somewhat odd reason the Indian media keeps on bragging about how Brahmos is the only missile in its class when there are a couple of other missiles (which are probably even better than the Brahmos) that are in the same class. Also, for the last time, the Brahmos IS NOT a cruise missile. It is a supersonic missile. A supersonic missile and a cruise missile are two entire different things.

[tphuang]

very interesting. only missle of its class? i think the yakont and yj-62 have quite similar abilities.

20 ships under contruction!!???!!
china only has like 2 destroyers, 6 subs, some transports, and possibly a carrier under construction.

america only has like 15,(burkes, a carrier, new lpds made from wtc...
hehehe, knowing the Indian shipbuilding industry's amazing prowess, I won't be surprised if they are all little vessels and support ships. As far as I know, the future IN plans are pretty much type 17, upgraded type 15 and the Scorpenes. And who knows how many of them are actually currently under construction. I'd guess a couple of type 17 and maybe one type 15?

As for Brahmos, it is really quite different from YJ-62. It's a hi-lo type of missile, whereas YJ-62 is a sea-skimming type. Really, Brahmos is just a faster version of Yakont.

As I have said in the past, Brahmos = the most overrated missile

[Gollevainen]

As I have said in the past, Brahmos = the most overrated missile

You should then pay bit more attention to the orginal Yakhont missile...wich would have been the next generation of Soviet tactical SSM replacing Malakhit and earlyest Moskits...

Now the sea-skimmer isent automaticly superior to Hi-lo type missiles...KluB (3M-54E) also follows similar flightpath and it makes me wondering why would soviets go this way after relying so long for seaskimmers if it would be inferior to sea-skimming mode??

[jatt]

Note the Barhmos does sea-skim when engaging the target.

[crazyinsane105]

The Brahmos is a very deadly weapon in the Indian arsenal. When a Brahmos is fired, I doubt people would ask whether or not it is Russian or Indian made. The Brahmos goes at the speed of a 7.62 bullet and the kinetic energy released when it hits a target will be enormous. I bet that one Brahmos hit can sink any destroyer the USN has (assuming that the Brahmos gets past the defense systems which it probably won't). So the Brahmos may be overrated, but it still packs a very deadly punch.

[tphuang]

there are basically three types of AShM.
1. the supersonic hi-lo AShM
2. the subsonic lo-lo AshM with supersonic terminal stage
3. the entirely subsonic lo-lo AshM

Against ships with medium range SAM (ie: 100 to 150KM range)
hi-lo AShM will get detected quite early and start to be targeted.
sea-skimming ones might not be detected until about 30 to 40 KM away from ship. At that time, type 2 would be able to get into their supersonic terminal stage. If this stage uses the same speed as the supersonic missiles, then they pretty much have the same chance of getting intercepted in that final 30 to 40 KM. So, this is an example of Klub vs Yakhont/Brahmos.

imo, there is about 100 KM there that type 1 AShM could be intercepted before it dives into its terminal stage. Remember, Brahmos' lo-lo range is 120KM (probably more in reality, but it's mentionned as 120KM on most sites).

As for type 3 like Harpoon, it generally has greater maneuverability and guidance in the final stage.

I guess you can pick which one you like the most.

[jatt]

there are basically three types of AShM.
1. the supersonic hi-lo AShM
2. the subsonic lo-lo AshM with supersonic terminal stage
3. the entirely subsonic lo-lo AshM

Against ships with medium range SAM (ie: 100 to 150KM range)
hi-lo AShM will get detected quite early and start to be targeted.
sea-skimming ones might not be detected until about 30 to 40 KM away from ship. At that time, type 2 would be able to get into their supersonic terminal stage. If this stage uses the same speed as the supersonic missiles, then they pretty much have the same chance of getting intercepted in that final 30 to 40 KM. So, this is an example of Klub vs Yakhont/Brahmos.

imo, there is about 100 KM there that type 1 AShM could be intercepted before it dives into its terminal stage. Remember, Brahmos' lo-lo range is 120KM (probably more in reality, but it's mentionned as 120KM on most sites).

As for type 3 like Harpoon, it generally has greater maneuverability and guidance in the final stage.

I guess you can pick which one you like the most.

Sea Skimming missiles also get detected too a little latter than the Hi flying ones.
The Barhmos on a Hi Lo profile goes into sea skimming mode 40 km from the target. Even on a lo lo profile the missile flyes high 40 km away from the traget zone to scan for the target, if it has moved or what ever.

[MIGleader]

Note the Barhmos does sea-skim when engaging the target.
so does the harpoon and yj-62. not a very unique attribute.

as a ashm, the brahmos will be very deadly to any of pakistans warships, since they lack medium range sams and ciws. the mki can easily be modified to fire it. pakistans in trouble...

[jatt]

so does the harpoon and yj-62. not a very unique attribute.

as a ashm, the brahmos will be very deadly to any of pakistans warships, since they lack medium range sams and ciws. the mki can easily be modified to fire it. pakistans in trouble...
If remember correctly the Pakistani Navy was always in troubled waters.

[tphuang]

so does the harpoon and yj-62. not a very unique attribute.

as a ashm, the brahmos will be very deadly to any of pakistans warships, since they lack medium range sams and ciws. the mki can easily be modified to fire it. pakistans in trouble...
anything would be trouble for the pakistani warships. What do they even have?

Sea-skimming cuts the detection by 1/3. While Brahmos will get detected and fired at before its diving stage, the Klub missile with still be cruising along in safety. Same with Harpoon.

[jatt]

anything would be trouble for the pakistani warships. What do they even have?

Sea-skimming cuts the detection by 1/3. While Brahmos will get detected and fired at before its diving stage, the Klub missile with still be cruising along in safety. Same with Harpoon.
Both the Barhmos and Club climb up 40 km from the target to scan. Thats when the suprise is over.

[tphuang]

Both the Barhmos and Club climb up 40 km from the target to scan. Thats when the suprise is over.
My point is that Klub won't be detected until about 40KM, whereas Brahmos can be detected and shot at earlier. By that time, both Klub and Brahmos should be in their final attack mode. Klub's sub/supersonic version goes at mach 2.9 and Brahmos goes at mach 2.8 I think. Manuverability should be similar at this point. So, the chance of them getting shot down should be similar.

Vs, short range AShM, (< 40 KM), they should have similar effects. vs dedicated air defense, brahmos will get detected and shot at before klub for sure.

[crazyinsane105]

Pakistani warships would be in big trouble by the Brahmos unless the PN gets an destroyer like the 051C. However, the PN would most likely use subs against the IN. That would be the only way the PN would be able to effectively counter the IN. But wait, since this is 2012, I think that PN would have some credible defense against anti-ship missiles.

[jatt]

My point is that Klub won't be detected until about 40KM, whereas Brahmos can be detected and shot at earlier. By that time, both Klub and Brahmos should be in their final attack mode. Klub's sub/supersonic version goes at mach 2.9 and Brahmos goes at mach 2.8 I think. Manuverability should be similar at this point. So, the chance of them getting shot down should be similar.

Vs, short range AShM, (< 40 KM), they should have similar effects. vs dedicated air defense, brahmos will get detected and shot at before klub for sure.
The Barhmos has a range of 280 km, while the max range of Klub is 220. I think designers figured that the Barhmos would be best flying low when it has reached the defence zone of the enemy airdefence. Simply at 220 km the Barhmos would have enough life to fly low to evade radar detecton of missile interception and high altitudes. Oh and BTW the Klub flyes at high altitudes after launch to use its jets (?) meaning it can be detected by a good radar.

[tphuang]

The Barhmos has a range of 280 km, while the max range of Klub is 220. I think designers figured that the Barhmos would be best flying low when it has reached the defence zone of the enemy airdefence. Simply at 220 km the Barhmos would have enough life to fly low to evade radar detecton of missile interception and high altitudes. Oh and BTW the Klub flyes at high altitudes after launch to use its jets (?) meaning it can be detected by a good radar.
http://www.defense-update.com/products/c/club-s.htm
it cruises at 20 m above the water, that's called sea skimming.

There are two major variants of Klub, the one that is purely subsonic and has a range of 300 and the one that has a supersonic final stage, but only has a range of 220. It's interesting that IN chose the former and PLAN chose the latter.

[jatt]

At an altitude of up to 150 metres, the solid-propellant booster is jettisoned, the under-fuselage air intake is extended, and the air-breathing sustainer engine is started. At the same time the wings and tail surfaces are extended, and the weapon descends to its cruising altitude of 10 to 15 metres above sea level.
http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/NAVY/Klub.html
With a max of 220 km thats nearly enough to be detected.

[tphuang]

Pakistani warships would be in big trouble by the Brahmos unless the PN gets an destroyer like the 051C. However, the PN would most likely use subs against the IN. That would be the only way the PN would be able to effectively counter the IN. But wait, since this is 2012, I think that PN would have some credible defense against anti-ship missiles.
you better hope those F22Ps get upgraded to using HQ-16 by then.

[tphuang]

http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/NAVY/Klub.html
With a max of 220 km thats nearly enough to be detected.
as I said before, it's low flying, so it won't get detected until when it gets into its terminal stage or just before that. Another thing you have to consider is that many SAM cannot operate below a certain altitude. That's what makes low flying AShM so dangerous. They simply cannot be hit by long range SAM. The only SAMs that would work against them are the medium ranged ones. By that time, missiles that have superso