What do YOU think the world would be like in 2050?

[Unit88]

Well, i am just throwing this out in the open because i am always wondering due to the fossil fuel shorrtage, how will the world be like in the futere. also, with growing military tension caused by taiwan and china, how will they affect the balance of powers in the world. will nuclear weapons cause mass extermination of a nation or will all nations join together and form a peaceful union.... im just curious:)

[Clouded Leopard]

China will be the world's 1# economic superpower, and likely military as well. (Taiwan will likely have reunified by then.)

The United States will have long since fallen on hard times. I'm not sure about nations like Russia and India.

The world will still be a dangerous and bellicose place, as always.

Due to advances, space has now become a major field of economic and military development. There are quite a few space stations and humans have made bases on Mars and the Moon. This soon becomes an area of tension.

Borders will have changed - some provinces of countries will declare independence, Russia might fracture, and about 10-20 new nations will be formed.

[flyzies]

Well, its impossible to detect what the future holds...but...

US, China and India would be superpowers politically, economically and militarily.
Russia could be fractured due to its declining population.
Im not sure what would become of countries in Sth America and Africa.
And as Leopard said above, space would be new frontier of tension and conflict.

All that is assuming of course the world hasnt been destroyed by global warming lol

[Neutral Zone]

It's always a dangerous game trying to predict that far into the future, just look how much the international scene has changed since 2000, the unexpected always tends to happen. Many people think that by 2050 China will have the World's largest economy, well in 1980, many were predicting that Japan would overhaul America by the year 2000 and it didn't happen! I wouldn't be surprised if China does eventually claim that distinction, but I equally wouldn't be surprised if it didn't!

But if you want me to stick my neck out, the pre-eminent powers will be America, China and India. Europe will have declined relative to those nations and Africa will have been devastated by the effects of climate change and AIDS. I agree that there will be permanent colonies on the Moon and possibly Mars and some asteroids, space travel will also have become available to a wide section of the population and there will be orbital hotels.

[FuManChu]

In 2050 I predict that the world will have had, be having, or facing global resource wars brought on by countries demanding more than the current capacity of resource production (of most resources, not just fuel). Nuclear war will probably be avoided, but many will die and suffer because the world will have refused to try to live within its means.

It will only be after many years (even decades) of fighting and a global recession that people realise many items they take for granted or want are luxuries and not necessities. But by then it's impossible to say whether it will be too late to do anything, what with the possibility of global warming causing the flooding of many coastal regions, etc.

Humanity will survive, but at a great cost. The only hope is that the current greedy, self-indulgent element of human nature that is taking root in every corner of the world is counter-acted and we find a way to use what little this world has to offer more efficiently.

[Gollevainen]

we all propaply live together as one big happy family united together in level beyond substance and materia by the universal spirit of freedom and mutual understaning.
:D :D ;) :D :D

[bd popeye]

we all propaply live together as one big happy family united together in level beyond substance and materia by the universal spirit of freedom and mutual understaning.
:D :D ;) :D :D

:roll: Golly, I knew you spent way tooooo much time with those dang hippies this weekend!!!!

All kidding aside , I'm moving this thread to the members club room.

[planeman]

Airbus will be called Spacebus and Boeing wll be making oversized American fridge freezers

[Finn McCool]

China, India and the US will be the dominant powers. Beyond that I think that there are two paths we can go down and they all depend on alternative energy. If, by 2050, the world is no longer dependent on fossil fuels, then life will be better than it is now. If we are still heavily dependent on fossil fuels we will be facing a number of reigional conflicts that threaten to create WWIII (just as WWII was created out of several resource based regional conflicts). Hotspots to watch will be Burma, Venezuela, the Arctic, Nigeria, Northeast Asia, and Central Asia/the Middle East (duh...I think the Middle East is permanantly on any list of "hot spots")

On the side note of space travel, I think that one day we will see multiple space elevators on Earth's surface. Indeed once nanotechnology makes a space elevator truely feasible every superpower will want one.

[FuManChu]

On the side note of space travel, I think that one day we will see multiple space elevators on Earth's surface. Indeed once nanotechnology makes a space elevator truely feasible every superpower will want one.

One of my friends knows a lot about "science" generally, especially physics. He said that every so often the earth's magnetic fields (or something like that) reverse - apparently we're due for another reversal in the coming centuries (maybe even sooner). The problem is that when that happens for a period of time, which can be years or longer, the earth loses the protection it has from the magnetic field against radiation.

So unless we build underground cities, the only solution for humanity to survive is to create enough homes in space!

[Finn McCool]

One of my friends knows a lot about "science" generally, especially physics. He said that every so often the earth's magnetic fields (or something like that) reverse - apparently we're due for another reversal in the coming centuries (maybe even sooner). The problem is that when that happens for a period of time, which can be years or longer, the earth loses the protection it has from the magnetic field against radiation.

So unless we build underground cities, the only solution for humanity to survive is to create enough homes in space!

Wait ahs this happened during humanity's exsistance before? I'd heard something about this before just not with the "killing humanity" part. :confused:

[Scratch]

Wait ahs this happened during humanity's exsistance before? I'd heard something about this before just not with the "killing humanity" part. :confused:

Geolists have found evidances of many reverses in the magnetic field throughout earth history.
On average these happened every 200.000-500.000 years. The last big reverse was 750.000 ago. Such a reverse may take milleniums. So, we are due to another one. Then there are small and rather short reverses wich are called "magnetic events". The last happend 30.000 years ago.
A reverse starts with the field getting slightly weaker over 500-1000 years. Wich is recorded recently. Finally the field collapses, getting a little chaotic with more than two poles. After some time it stabilizes again.
researcher of the Los Alamos Lab and the LA university created a computer model that run over 2000 hours on a CRAY. After 40.000years in the modell, the field reversed spontaneous.
When like in that case the field is down, much more dangerous solar radiation will hit the ground. But as the past shows, this will not necessarily lead to the extiction of species. However, it might very well adversely affect them.

[Colt .45]

I think the aliens will have taken control of the Earth and they will keep us as pets. You know they will feed you and teach you how to do tricks.:D

[TerraN_EmpirE]

the start of the third world war, a eugenics conflict lead by Col. Green where in the nations of the corporate ECON invade and begin mass death. the war ends three years The Third World War on Earth ends. 600 million people are killed, numerous major cities are destroyed or suffer heavy damage and most of the major governments are in ruins. One of the major combatants in the war was the ECON or Eastern Coalition. (Star Trek: First Contact)

[FuManChu]

Wait ahs this happened during humanity's exsistance before? I'd heard something about this before just not with the "killing humanity" part.

Oh, it doesn't happen that often - there are millions of years between each time it happens, I think. It's impossible to say what would happen (humanity dying would be an extreme case), but it certainly would kill a large part of the population if we weren't prepared.

It's called "geomagnetic reversal".

[fishhead]

Here is my predition:

1. The world order doesn't change much, not much difference from now. If you think 2050 is a big deal, then go back to 1900, all those big powers at that time remain so today, a club with all old faces. My golden rule No 1: it's not easy to climb to the big power status, it's not easy to pull them down as well. Only China is an exception - Chinese weight will gain significantly but still just a new face in the club. Britain, France, Germany will still be the important powers, Japan as well. And we can't underestimate Russia, without US Russia can easily get what they lost back, the whole world won't make any noise - it's the US not the Europe that keeps Russia in check.

2. Emerging power. Honestly I look around and could't find any. India won't be a global power by 2050. The status of India today is way blown out of proportion - nobody cares India in any real hard-core world issues. If you check the main economic and technology data, India is way behind China, let alone other powers. And my golden rule No 2: Whoever fought with the biggest power(the enemy no. 1) would remain or become a world power. It's the fact since 1763(the seven year's war) and it's true for France, for US, for Germany and Japan. Russia didn't fight with the biggest power so they're less prosperous today, Chinese fought with US 50 years ago so more hopeful. Too bad for Iraq and Vietnam, they didn't attack the biggest power but were attacked. For any emergin power, you got to pass that test.

3. The war between the big powers only changes the order of the powers, but can't eliminate the other world power. If a major nuclear exchange happens then we talk about doom day, not the world order.

So basically everthing remains roughly the same, with US, China at some kind of lead. Also we got to know that today's power of the major world powers is much diluted, not as powerful as before. In relative term, US today is more powerful than Britain before the WW1, but US has much less power than Britain at that time. This trend can't be stopped, the world goes into the stage that cooperation is absolute necessary.

[Chengdu J-10]

Prediction for 2050:
1) China will have the biggest military budget in the world surpassing US
2) China economy and military will be No. 1
3) US and Russia will still be ahead in space technology wise but with China extremely close behind them.
4) US military and economy will fall slighty and soon its military will run out of steam.
5) US no longer will be the world protectors
6) US would have withdrew forces from Iraq and Afi.
7) China standard of living and individual wealth will be in the Top 10.

8) DEAR GOD LETS HOPE THERE WILL BE NO WW3, humanity cannot handle another one.

[Colt .45]

the start of the third world war, a eugenics conflict lead by Col. Green where in the nations of the corporate ECON invade and begin mass death. the war ends three years The Third World War on Earth ends. 600 million people are killed, numerous major cities are destroyed or suffer heavy damage and most of the major governments are in ruins. One of the major combatants in the war was the ECON or Eastern Coalition. (Star Trek: First Contact)

I think there will be a third world war with China, Russia, and the U.S. It will be like Call of Duty 4.:coffee:

[Colt .45]

Prediction for 2050:
1) China will have the biggest military budget in the world surpassing US
2) China economy and military will be No. 1
3) US and Russia will still be ahead in space technology wise but with China extremely close behind them.
4) US military and economy will fall slighty and soon its military will run out of steam.
5) US no longer will be the world protectors
6) US would have withdrew forces from Iraq and Afi.
7) China standard of living and individual wealth will be in the Top 10.

8) DEAR GOD LETS HOPE THERE WILL BE NO WW3, humanity cannot handle another one.

Wow that can't be good for the U.S. Its like the U.S. collapsed.

[bd popeye]

Since I'm 53 years old now..I probaly won't be around to see what is happening in 2050...

[zraver]

between now and 2050 fresh water will becoem the new oil.

Mass starvation and disease as the changing climate dries up most of the worlds breadbasket states. The rapid onset mini-ige predicted for Europe will kill Russian and Ukranian harvest and force massive changes on western Europe. In the US the growing glaciers and reduced rainfall means the Ogalla Sea dries up as predicted and centerpoint irrigation no longer works and the plains states stop being major farming areas. In China and India the changing climate, increasing population and loss of aridable land means a persistent shortage of food for 1/3 of the worlds population. In Africa the climate conitinues its drying trend and whole nations effectively vanish as organized states as famine and AIDS take their toll.

The worlds only hopes are to go vegetarian with low mositure staples (conr and rice go bye bye)where excess grain currently use to feed livestock can be easily converted into bread to take up some of the slack. And to build massive desalinisation plants to covernt massive ammounts of sea water into water for irrigation. This means countries without financial resources to build them will be out of luck.

The food crisis will create either a new wave of migration closer to the 4th century than the economic migration of the last 50 years or territorial wars as nations strike out and attmept to seize viable growing areas. This poses signifigant long term risk to Poland (and thus NATO) and Turkey (NATO again) as the slav population is forced south in search of food.

Compounding the problem over fishing and poor resource management today will leave the oceans unable to take up the slack caused by the loss of airable land

Long temr if we avoid nuclear war the major players will be the ones that have money and easy access to plentiful water. US, Western Europe, India, and China but evne here the populatiosn and standards of living will ahve dropped in many ways. Health and dietary issues will be near crisis or full blown crisi in every corner of the globe.

[adeptitus]

It's difficult to predict what the world will be like in 50 years, but if we were to assume current trends continue, by 2050:

Countries across East Asia with low birth rate (China/Taiwan/S Korea/Japan) will have a graying population with upside-down pyramid in terms of age/demographic spread.

China's economic growth would probably experience at least a couple of slowdown phases. Taiwan/Japan/Singapore/S Korea will probably have more immigrants from SE Asia (Philippines, Vietnam. Indonesia, ?). Militarily the PRC will probably not exceed the US in power projection capability by 2050, but on home turf it'd the biggest kid in its neighborhood. However in South Asia, I foresee a powerful India forcing the PRC to eventually re-align to a more neutral position between Pakistan & India.

Traditionally mono-ethnic countries like S. Korea and Japan will experience periodic anti-immigration backlashes as their governments scramble to offer financial incentives for their people to have more children, which will ultimately be futile as better-educated population indulge in materialism and self-gratification instead of raising a family.

China will become dependent on mix of nuclear and fossil fuels (tilting toward nuclear power), I foresee the PRC maintaining good relations with Australia and Canada. There's a possibility that bio-fuel might work and we'd see huge algae farms? But that's speculative.

I suspect Singapore will have more immigrants from mainland China by 2050. Philippines will experience very high population growth and we'll see more Filipinos moving abroad. Traditional surgery will be supplemented by non-intrusive ultrasound/vibration method and robotics/remote-control systems -- see da Vinci Surgical System by Intuitive Surgical Inc. for examples.

I don't expect North Korea to survive another 50 years, the "reunification" will be very costly to S. Korea. As S. Korea extend its rail network north, property developers will invade N. Korea to build new suburbs. S. Korea's real estate market will crash and home owners in Seoul will lose billions on their equity value, leading to mass riots and protests against the government.

India's population will exceed China by 2050, but Pakistan's population growth will be very high as well. However I don't foresee an all-out war between the 2 countries since their leadership is probably not stupid enough to risk a nuclear exchange. Pakistan will build lots of walls to keep the Afghans out, and India will build lots of walls and fences around Bangladesh.

Like PRC today, select areas of India will become very prosperous, but the vast majority of its population will remain poor. Countries like Vietnam, Cambodia, etc. will experience a period of rapid economic growth from low cost labor intensive manufacturing sector, which will last for ~20 years before slowing down due to rising labor/production costs.

The U.S. will probably have 400-500 million residents by 2050. Its economy will continue to grow fueled by immigration and population growth. However the gap between rich and poor will also increase in coastal states/cities. In those areas only a minor % of the workforce will have high paying jobs to provide an upper middle class lifestyle, while the majority will struggle to pay 50% or more of their income for housing (note: this is referring to coastal states like CA, NY, FL, etc, not Idaho).

For those in East Asia, basic college degrees will be mostly worthless. In Taiwan today the college acceptance rate is something like 97.x%, you have to try really hard to flunk and not get into college. Japanese universities will initially try to attract more students from abroad to fill its vacant seats/rooms before eventually downsizing. Taiwan & Japan will depopulate and its major cities will remain as center of its economic activity, but the rural areas will be hard-hit with heavy depopulation and decline in real estate value.

Traditional white collar office work will give way to contract based employment where benefits are portable and employers look for experience and productivity, not 20-year service loyalty. Corporations will move toward becoming multinational entities and various countries/states/provinces/cities will compete to attract them with various tax benefits and incentives.

To be a "winner" in 2050 a worker needs to have desirable and portable job skills, moving between countries/locations on contract. Such a person may travel to an "expensive" location for higher salary, then move back to a lower-cost location during down-time or partial retirement.

The gaps between wealthy and poorer locations in cost of living will remain large. Someone who is lucky enough to develop/obtain desirable (highly paid) work skills will be able to work in Shanghai/Tokyo/Los Angeles in 2050 for 10 years, save and invest wisely, then move to a rural area of Taiwan/Vietnam/etc and not have to work again for the rest of their life.

[AssassinsMace]

My prediction...

China will be strong even after a couple of downturns but definitely not number one per capita. China will still be an alternate independent power from the West for the world economy.

China wil become democratic of sorts but it's emergence will be slow and equivalent to watching paint dry meaning the West will have long moved on to other newer excuses to criticize China about.

China will have made major independent advancements in science and technology spurring on a Cold War of sorts. China will have a major presence in space.

Sino-US relations will only get worse. We will see the West push for the unequal treaties similar to what was seen in the Far East duing the 1800 and early 1900s, i.e., demanding Japan limit it's military capabilities while the West had no such restrictions. Of course China will ignore it. Not sure if war breaks out but if it does it will definitely go nuclear soon after.

The US will have been involved in a new major war in the Middle East. Either fighting one or more Islamic states or with Arabs against non-Arab Islamic countries. Both lead to much chaos and extreme instability throughout the Islamic world and their neighbors.

Some predict China will fall under extremist nationalism? Watch out for the US when the world become less and less black and white. More and more countries around the world won't follow the "us versus them" mentality that has long benefited the US. More nations won't abide by the international rules and regulations formed by the geo-politics of mostly Western powers. Meaning less US influence around the world and more insecurity in Americans.

One or two allies of the US today, seeing the rise of China passing them by, will move in independent directions. One or both will be in conflict politically and possibly militarily with either/both China and the US. Wanna guess which countries?

The world will have seen long stable growth in portions of Sub-Saharan Africa because of mostly the China factor being an alternative to the West.

[Norfolk]

In 2050 I predict that the world will have had, be having, or facing global resource wars brought on by countries demanding more than the current capacity of resource production (of most resources, not just fuel). Nuclear war will probably be avoided, but many will die and suffer because the world will have refused to try to live within its means.

It will only be after many years (even decades) of fighting and a global recession that people realise many items they take for granted or want are luxuries and not necessities. But by then it's impossible to say whether it will be too late to do anything, what with the possibility of global warming causing the flooding of many coastal regions, etc.

Humanity will survive, but at a great cost. The only hope is that the current greedy, self-indulgent element of human nature that is taking root in every corner of the world is counter-acted and we find a way to use what little this world has to offer more efficiently.


I rather tend to agree, human nature being what it is, it may take quite a bit of bitter reality for societies to try to learn to live within their means - and it doesn't look like many people will voluntarily give up the lifestyles to which they have grown accustomed.

As to potential disasters such as the reversal of the earth's magnetic field, well, a US general about thirty years ago responded to the threat of a nuclear holocaust with the quip "If there's enough shovels to go around, everybody's going to make it." A little simplistic, but should any great catastrophe befall us, we're probably just going to have to make do as best we can since I doubt governments will have the means and the foreknowledge necessary to do a whole lot about it.

I will predict that the lineup of great powers in 2050 may well be the USA and China at the top, but I also suggest that either's placing may be a good deal more tenuous than at present. Both face rapidly aging populations, and obviously this means fewer workers supporting more retirees while having fewer children. For China, this also means an increasingly expensive workforce as the decades pass, potentially wiping out much of its competitive advantage in that regard. The US, heavily saddled with debt, is going to have a very hard time supporting government spending at the levels people are used to, especially in social security and national defence. Russia may be something of a wildcard, since it seems to be following a strategy of basing its strength on military power financed by petroleum, rather than meaningfully revitalizing its general economy - if petroleum stays high, Russia will ride high, if not..., and as for other great powers, I suspect India and Brazil will emerge, and possibly Pakistan and Iran, and Japan will re-emerge. As for Britain, Germany, and France, that'll depend on whether they choose to pay for mass populations of elderly or to pay for powerful militaries.

There is going to be a much greater gap between those who have it and those who don't, especially in those countries where most people have been used to having it. And this may eventually transform the politics of those countries, and not necessarily in good ways.

This said, there will almost certainly be some very interesting surprises.

"May you live in interesting times." - ancient curse

[crobato]

You may like to read this.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chung_Kuo

http://www.bobnewell.net/chungkuo/wingrove.html

[swimmerXC]

We'll all be dead.

[Clouded Leopard]

between now and 2050 fresh water will becoem the new oil.

I think that this will hardly be the case. The ocean is a limitless supply of salt water, and the technology to distill fresh drinking water out of seawater should become only even more readily available in the next coming decades.

[Norfolk]

You may like to read this.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chung_Kuo

http://www.bobnewell.net/chungkuo/wingrove.html

That's some pretty grim outlook. Even for someone who tilts to pessimism at times, that's a little more than I care to contemplate.

But maybe grim outlooks are a sign of the times, or of times to come.

Water is such an understated vital resource, you sometimes wonder what all the hubbub about petroleum would be compared to a dire water-shortage crisis, let alone wars over water.

[crobato]

I think that this will hardly be the case. The ocean is a limitless supply of salt water, and the technology to distill fresh drinking water out of seawater should become only even more readily available in the next coming decades.

Some nations may have the technology? But what about the poor farmer? The rest of the world's billions will not have, or afford a nuclear powered fresh water converter. Its not the availability its the cost.

In zraver's "Water Wars" which I will call at that, nations that are the source of water are the ones likely to be attacked. For example, Egypt's source of water, the Nile, comes from the Sudan. Guess who becomes the target.

In Europe, people may fight to secure the Alps, since many of Europe's major rivers like the Danube, originates from it.

China has at least five major water systems coming out of it. Suffice to say, I dont' see China targeting anyone, but China can become a target to someone else because of this. The water ways of Thailand, Burma, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam are dependent on China.

Russia and the US on the other hand, seem self sufficient since the end and the beginning of several waterways are within their countries.

The world thinks of the US being a military superpower, but remember first and foremost is that the US is the FOOD superpower, bread and basket to the rest of the world, including China. A major ecological crisis that happens in the US that will affect the food producing states, and you will have a major global food crisis.

That is why I think the one of the world's biggest threats facing today is biological, a blight or virus or germ that can wipe out crops and livestock, in the same sense like Mad Cow disease or Bird flu. If this hits the US food system, then the consequences are unimaginable.

[Skywatcher]

What about hydroponics? IE genetically altered bacteria which either grow into food or produce edible byproducts just with water and sunlight?

Granted, vat produced food isn't going to taste very nice.

[fishhead]

Since I'm 53 years old now..I probaly won't be around to see what is happening in 2050...

Cross your fingers, expect the magic, prey to Juses......

[Autumn Child]

By the way, there is new deslination technology that condense water vapour from the sea naturally without alot of energy input from fosil fuel. The cost for this technology will just be the structure for the condensation. Water War can be avoided if this technology is further developed for large scale use. (source: discovery channel) Does anyone know more about this?

[warkuo]

hello ppl, havent been on for ages. Anyway in 2050, there can be many situation

1. Chian becomes the most powerful
2. The breakage of China into different sub countries, ( like wat has happened MANY times) It is most likely cuase by Americanism and Infilitration of democracy.
3. Every1 is happy:D

[Autumn Child]

@warkuo
I have heard a few times in other forumn regarding China breaking up to small countries. How will it break up? Which province will break up? and how will a country with complete control of its army and growing economy break up in the near future?

[MrClean]

I think that at the rate technology is going, with computers and prosthetic limbs and cloning and nano tech etc. That in 50 years human kind will be in a new era of society. At some point this kind of technology will not be just to repair injured people, but it will be an enhancement of sorts. Just think of it, one day in 2050 you will be able to have these nano machines injected,yes I said injected, into your blood stream that will be able to repair you at the molecular level. Not only will they be able to fix you, they will make you see better, run faster stronger etc. There has already been multiple prototypes for prosthetic limbs being made for wounded soldiers and the tech has already been proven. Cloning is too beneficial to science and the human race not to pursue furthur and I can gurantee you that some country is spending millions if not billions of dollars on this tech, and there will be human cloning sometime in the not too distant future.

To make a long story short in 2050 I imagine things will look alot like a cross between Ghost in the Shell and that movie The Island. That is if we dont all kill eachother off between now and then :D

http://www.news24.com/News24/Technology/News/0,,2-13-1443_2160958,00.html

http://blogs.spectrum.ieee.org/tech_talk/2007/08/phantom_limb.html

http://www.wired.com/science/discoveries/news/2007/08/bionic_arm

[AssassinsMace]

@warkuo
I have heard a few times in other forumn regarding China breaking up to small countries. How will it break up? Which province will break up? and how will a country with complete control of its army and growing economy break up in the near future?

Wishful thinking in their part. They only think about that because of what the Soviet Union went through. They think the same with China.

Just like before Tom Clancy came out with the Bear and the Dragon, no one ever entertained the thought that China would invade Russia for resources. Now it's imminent!

China is not the Soviet Union. If it was, wouldn't China have collapsed already from the predictions of all the so-called "experts?" Or are they desperately waiting for some natural economic slow down to take all the credit?

[AssassinsMace]

I think that at the rate technology is going, with computers and prosthetic limbs and cloning and nano tech etc. That in 50 years human kind will be in a new era of society. At some point this kind of technology will not be just to repair injured people, but it will be an enhancement of sorts. Just think of it, one day in 2050 you will be able to have these nano machines injected,yes I said injected, into your blood stream that will be able to repair you at the molecular level. Not only will they be able to fix you, they will make you see better, run faster stronger etc. There has already been multiple prototypes for prosthetic limbs being made for wounded soldiers and the tech has already been proven. Cloning is too beneficial to science and the human race not to pursue furthur and I can gurantee you that some country is spending millions if not billions of dollars on this tech, and there will be human cloning sometime in the not too distant future.

To make a long story short in 2050 I imagine things will look alot like a cross between Ghost in the Shell and that movie The Island. That is if we dont all kill eachother off between now and then :D

http://www.news24.com/News24/Technology/News/0,,2-13-1443_2160958,00.html

http://blogs.spectrum.ieee.org/tech_talk/2007/08/phantom_limb.html

http://www.wired.com/science/discoveries/news/2007/08/bionic_arm

I see nano technology being the next big paranoid scare like nuclear science went through and how cloning and genetically modified foods is going through now. I think people will be in fear of it and don't want it anywhere in medicine.

[fishhead]

It's very unlikely China will break up, I would say zero chance.

Since Qin dynasty, China suffered breakup only twice, both were caused by "barbarian" invasion. First time it's in Jin dynasty, the conquered Hun rebelled and led to large scale other nomads invasion, the chaoes lasted 300 hundred years. Second time, it's caused by Khitan invasion after the collaspe of Tang, then Jin(the ancestor of Manchu), Song fought with them all the time but impossible to win, at the end it's Mongol that united China before being kicked out.

The late Ming situation almost led to Song story, the Manchu rebelled(yes, they rebel, not invade) caused the split of the country, but it only lasted 50 years before Manchu united China. So, we see

1) China itself never broke up, it is always caused by invasion of foreign powers. China itself remains united all the time even without the concept of nationalism, it's amazing.

2) The foreign power had to take a marginal area of China for significant time, to grow its strength and repel central government's effort to conquer them. But at the same time, they're sinolized.

Today, with the concept of nationalism introduced(in Sino-Japanese war), with the introduction of nuclear weapons, it can't happen again.

[warkuo]

the breakup is inevitable unless the chiense goverenemnt provides something good for the peasant. they're not benefiting much. An army cannot fight without food too u know...unless u thinking of star wars..

[crobato]

China did break up, though not culturally and linguistically. It did so in the one of the most famous periods of all---the Three Kingdoms Period. This was not due to any barbarian invasion, but rather each faction trying to claim legitimacy to the throne and to be the successor of the Han Dynasty. This split even mirrored the three main regional differences in China---North, West and South.

[Violet Oboe]

Progress in biotechnology, robotics and artificial intelligence will probably beginning to create a new kind of human race around the mid of the century.

Unfortunately these gadgets will be expensive and only the wealthy (perhaps 1% of the population) could afford to enhance their family with ´neuro chips´, ´AI link ups´ and fresh engineered organs (want to live 200 years, no problem if you got the bucks!). The resulting leap in knowledge and power (just imagine to know not only 3 or 4 languages but 100 with the help of AI neuro interfaces instantly and perfectly!:confused: ) for the new ruling caste will be enormous and they will certainly dominate in every nation on the globe.

The masses will be left behind and may well be physically exterminated by the ´enhanced caste´ with the help of individually adapted genetically engineered killer viruses (... of course the complete genetical profile of every scanned human being will be available in a global data bank!).

Well, I know that's a dark vision but most of these technologies are already there and if only one state (Japan?) would cross the line of biotech, AI interface and robotech enhancement for human beings the others would have to follow suit. :coffee:

[Autumn Child]

the breakup is inevitable unless the chiense goverenemnt provides something good for the peasant. they're not benefiting much. An army cannot fight without food too u know...unless u thinking of star wars..

Just so u know that food is not a problem in China. In my last four year stay in China, people actually waste a lot of food even in the village area. I don't think the people, especially the army, is starving for food at the moment.

I have to agree with you about the growing discontent in the rural area. This problem is due to the lack of direct cotrol of the central government on the local government level. Farmers are growing restless due to unfair compensation by local government for their land.

The governing system in china very complicated and full of holes. It is hard to reign in on all corupt officials all at once which will cause a huge destabilization on the government. Sometimes the central government has to keep an eye closed in regards to coruption at local level. However, in my years of observation, if the corruption by these official gets out of hand and spreads in the media, then these corrupt local official will be punished. One such example is the coal mining case. The central government knew about the lack of safety in these mines due to local corruption. The central government starts neting those corrupt officials only when the case got worse and spreads to domestic and international media. The rescent food scandal can also be viewed this way. Step by step approach is necessary in this case.

Another reason, but much smaller, is rapid urbunization. Already more than 50% of China's population live in urban environment.

Wealth for this urbunites are continuing to rise, but keeping up with employment market and staying competative is a continuing problem. Steadily increasing wealth of people is important as it is the main suppresor of general uprising. This model have been proven to work in other countries such as Singapore (in a much smaller scale). The government of Singapore (PAP) is a control "freak", much more so than the CPC. I have lived there for more than four years and i know what it is like. People there aren't complaining as much mostly due to economic factor. Westerners often ask why Singaporean tolerate their goverment "undemocratic" rule and why not stage a general uprising to topple the government. The popular response may sound like this: " Why should I complain when I get wealthier every year and my live is getting better progressively?" After all, Singaporean, unlike Westerners who enjoyed wealth for centuries, have only rescently lived in poverty only half a century ago. The Chinese only get progressively more weathy in the last 20 years due to economic growth. Their mentality towards their government is similar, but not entirely identical, to those of Singaporean in their growth over the years.

In conclusion, China is a very large country with huge population. It has accomplish great feat in keeping more than 1.3 billion people fed and now its trying to maintain stability through steady increase in wealth. The last thing that the central government want is instability from discontent peasants.

[fishhead]

China did break up, though not culturally and linguistically. It did so in the one of the most famous periods of all---the Three Kingdoms Period. This was not due to any barbarian invasion, but rather each faction trying to claim legitimacy to the throne and to be the successor of the Han Dynasty. This split even mirrored the three main regional differences in China---North, West and South.

LOL, that's so wrong. China never breaks up in the political sense. The political breakup means the separated regimes recognize the split reality and could co-exist peacefully. But that never happens in China. In past 2000 years at any time there always is a regime that either united China already or was trying to unite China. Co-existence concept never exists in China. The separated regimes were always at the war in China. The 3 kingdom era was not China's breakup, but a re-unification process, each side tried to defeat others to unite the country - it's a civil war. If that qualified a break-up, then Roman would break up many many times.

And also, politically, China is extremely stable. In past 1000 years, Chinese has only 5 govenments, Song, Ming, Manchu, KMT and CCP, sparing Mongol who only lasted 60 years. And except KMT, all governments fell due to external reasons, CCP hasn't fallen yet.

Name one example China's breakup is not due to barbarian invasion? Not just give empty statements.

[fishhead]

Just so u know that food is not a problem in China. In my last four year stay in China, people actually waste a lot of food even in the village area. I don't think the people, especially the army, is starving for food at the moment.


LOL, Chinese meat consumption is 60kg per person, more than 10 times of Indian. The grain consumption is 2 times of Indian.

Don't know who will get the problem first?

And the data is for 1998, today it's even more and China is the biggest meat producer of the world. A country eating so much meat doesn't look to have food problem.
http://img67.imageshack.us/img67/1336/meat1998se9.jpg

[Gollevainen]

Guess like arguments are running out, when China-india comprasions pop's out.
In generally I would allow more ligther and offtopic discussion here in member's clubroom, but rules that forbids india and china to be compared against each others applyes here as well.
Now Fishead, I propaply dont need to remaind you that next warning would mean permanent ban for you so in your position, I wouldn't test my limits so eagerly as you have done this week. Let this be last time I need to moderate anyone in this weekend or otherwise heads will start to drop:nono:

Thread Closed

Gollevainen
Super Moderator

http://i14.tinypic.com/6ga4p79.jpg