Taiwanese president declares Taiwan must seek independence

[akihh]

Taipei - Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian, in a sudden move on Sunday, declared that Taiwan had to seek independence.

'Taiwan must seek independence, must rectify its name, must have a new constitution and must seek development,' Chen said at the dinner party marking the 25th anniversary of the founding of the Formosan Association for Public Affairs (FAPA).

Chen's statement is expected to draw sharp reactions from China, because China sees Taiwan as its breakaway province and has warned that it would use force to recover Taiwan if Taipei declared independence or indefinitely delayed reunification with the mainland.
Source (http://news.monstersandcritics.com/asiapacific/news/article_1272459.php/Taiwanese_president_declares_Taiwan_must_seek_inde pendence)

This is gonna seriously increase the tensions, and quickly. I wonder how able or committed americans are currently to defend taiwan if it declares independence unilaterally. Afterall, US is somewhat stretched even navally because of the iran-related buildup on persian gulf.

[akihh]

Beijing - Chinese Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing on Monday said Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian would become a 'criminal in history' if he continues to promote formal independence for his country.

Reacting to Chen's statement on Sunday that Taiwan must seek independence, Li invoked China's 'anti-secession law' and said Chen would not succeed in any bid for formal independence, the Zaobao.com website, owned by Singapore's United Morning News (Lianhe Zaobao), reported.

The controversial law is 'not something useless that can be just put aside,' Li was quoted as telling reporters, in an apparently veiled reference to a provision that allows the use of force to prevent formal independence for Taiwan.
...
The Anti-Secession Law passed by China in March 2005 laid 'a legal foundation for a future military invasion of Taiwan,' Chen said last week in an exclusive interview with Deutsche Presse-Agentur dpa.

The controversial law allows 'non-peaceful means' against Taiwan if the island seeks independence or if the possibility of 'peaceful reunification' is exhausted.
Source (http://news.monstersandcritics.com/asiapacific/news/article_1272687.php/China_slams_Taiwan_leader_invokes_&quotanti-secession_law%22)

Ouch! Now didn't except such harsh reponse in chinese first salvo. Heating up even quicker than thought.

[ofone]

Chen Shui-bian will commit suicide.
Beijing and Washington will not allowed this.

[Player 0]

Is anyone really taking him seriously?

I mean it, are they?

[FuManChu]

Geez, some of you guys know so little about Taiwan. Chen is just appealing to his core vote. Former President Lee has been recently attacking the DPP for not "doing enough" on independence, because he's worried the TSU will disappear in the legislative elections. So Chen is trying to say "hey, we haven't forgotten about independence" to make sure the DPP keeps its supporters.

But that's it. He won't make a declaration of independence - he said "seek" independence, as in have an aspiration to obtain it. As to changing its name, that can't be done without a lot of constitutional red-tape (and isn't going to happen).

It's a shame that China can't think objectively and see that.

[bomber]

I really afraid for these two chinese lands crisis ,it will be a spark of war.
According to news via BBC & reauters,Mainland china announced for the new military budgets and US congress has already approved to sell multi millions worth hitech missiles to small china (Taiwan).
Moderaters...I think that these post and replies are really dangerous for our earth peace. For the business ' oil and gold price will be going up cause of the smell of wars...
I hope that PRC can manage this crisis by diplomatic talk between Taiwan ,US and PRC.
God bless us and stop wars......
IRAN problem
North Korea problem(now stopped:off :off :off :off :off by the 6party talks)
Two China problem
Next??????????

[FuManChu]

I really afraid for these two chinese lands crisis ,it will be a spark of war.

What has been going on recently won't cause a war. There is always the potential for future trouble, but I think things will be fine at least until next decade.

I hope that PRC can manage this crisis by diplomatic talk between Taiwan ,US and PRC

Well, it doesn't help that China refuses to talk to Taiwan's leadership just because they don't like them (Taipei certainly wants talks). Even the US bit on their pride to have talks with North Korea, and they were trying to hold the region to ransom with nuclear weapons.

At the very least China needs to talk to whoever wins the 2008 election and not impose caveats.

(By the way, shouldn't this be in the general members section?)

[akihh]

(By the way, shouldn't this be in the general members section?)

True, my bad. Moderators, would you move the thread?

[ofone]

It's a shame that China can't think objectively and see that.

Of course China know.Or maybe you think you are more intelligent than others a little bitter.:coffee:

[Schumacher]

........
Well, it doesn't help that China refuses to talk to Taiwan's leadership just because they don't like them (Taipei certainly wants talks). Even the US bit on their pride to have talks with North Korea, and they were trying to hold the region to ransom with nuclear weapons.

At the very least China needs to talk to whoever wins the 2008 election and not impose caveats.............

China won't talk to Chen because it sees him as lacking credibility internationally & locally. Chen will most likely use any talks to gain some political mileage for himself, not to really solve cross straits issues.
China sees time as on its side & is really in no hurry to alter the status quo. They might talk more if KMT wins the next election.

[The_Zergling]

Of course this is nothing new for Chen, it's the stance that got him elected in 2000 - as FuManChu noted, it's appealing to his selectorate, and China (predictably) overreacted realistically, though politically they had to condemn him. Calling him a "criminal in history" is rich, though. After he got elected his policies quickly turned moderate and pragmatic towards keeping China happy, it's obvious that short of brain freeze he will continue to do so.

[FuManChu]

They might talk more if KMT wins the next election.

And if the KMT doesn't win? Another four years of bad Sino-Taiwanese relations because Beijing still wants to sulk in the corner? That's not good for peace. If the Americans can bite down on their pride the Chinese government can too.

[Jeff Head]

And if the KMT doesn't win? Another four years of bad Sino-Taiwanese relations because Beijing still wants to sulk in the corner? That's not good for peace. If the Americans can bite down on their pride the Chinese government can too.I agree Fu...Chen was simply appealing to the electorate and his constituency in the same way he did to get elected...nothing more or less. He did the same thing in the elections and was elected and then promptly took on the more moderate stance. I believe he is doing the same now in advance of the next elections.

[eecsmaster]

Beijing sulks in the corner or Chen being a moron?

For someone who proclaims an open mind and neutrality, you certainly are not very open and not very neutral. If you want to play the devil's advocate, fine, but at least play it for both sides. If you don't, then stop spilling that neutrality horse shit.

[Jeff Head]

For someone who proclaims an open mind and neutrality, you certainly are not very open and not very neutral. If you want to play the devil's advocate, fine, but at least play it for both sides. If you don't, then stop spilling that neutrality horse shit.Well, I do not know who you are addressing that rant to...and maybe I have misinterpreted it (if so, apologies in advance)...but for me, it is simply my opinion and was never meant to be neutral per sey.

Chen is being a politicians and taking risks as he appeals to his constituency. Nothing new or neutral about that. Others will react as they will...nothing neutral about that either. He is hedging his bets that his words will get him his votes while not causing too extreme a reaction form the other side.

Having said all of that, I am not really neutral on this issue in any case. I believe that the ROC, for all intents and purposes has been independent for a long time...but they have a neighbor who is much stronger than they who insists otherwise, and who, quite frankly, is playing the issue smartly as more and more Taiwan economy becomes more and more dependent on the mainland.

Having visited both countries...I pray for the benefit of the people themselves that it can ultimatley be resolved peacefully to the satisfaction of the people themselves and their own prosperity and freedom...because I believe the latter truly begats an optimum of the former.

[eecsmaster]

who else? The notorious Dr. Fu of course.

[FuManChu]

Beijing sulks in the corner or Chen being a moron?

For someone who proclaims an open mind and neutrality, you certainly are not very open and not very neutral. If you want to play the devil's advocate, fine, but at least play it for both sides. If you don't, then stop spilling that neutrality horse shit.

The most common attitude on this forum on this subject is "waaah, waaah, waaah Chen this, waaah, waaah, waaah, Taiwan that". So it is actually necessary for me to put the other side across if there is to be any sense of neutrality at all. If some people could actually think about both sides rather than just their own, I wouldn't need to make comments like that.

Your very question as to whether Chen is being a "moron" shows you are far from being neutral yourself. Clever people sometimes sulk, but "moron" is a completely negative term. If you're going to scold me for not being balanced enough, at least try to create the illusion you're non-partisan.

Chen does get a little rowdy sometimes, but given the state of limbo his home is in, the pressures put on Taiwan by China & the US, the demolition of its international ties by China, the Opposition repeatedly vetoing any laws he tries to create because they're throwing a temper-tantrum about something (even if they actually agree with the law), etc, I would say he generally acts with restraint. I think most people with even a little national pride and self-worth would be driven mad after nearly two terms in office of that.

China complains whenever Chen does something it doesn't like, but it is completely oblivious to all the things Chen could have done and many would say would have been completely justified to do. He has walked a tight-rope to please Beijing and Washington - just because he stops from time-to-time to waive to the crowd doesn't mean he's a "moron", "jerk" or "the worst criminal in history".

More importantly if Chen is the problem, why is it that China refuses to talk to anyone from the Taiwanese government or ruling party? Don't tell me they're all as "bad" as the President. The DPP has even pledged to drop its independence commitment if China would talk without caveats as to what people must do and say beforehand. If that's not a sign of diplomatic sulking (or another form of negative behaviour), I'm not sure what is.

who else? The notorious Dr. Fu of course.

Yeah, notorious because he isn't afraid to stick it to someone who's talking absolute trash. Well sorry for rocking the boat, but you could write your posts with just a little more common-sense and empathy for anyone other than yourself.

[eecsmaster]

so your rational is because A-Bien's voter base is eroding, he has the right to nudge the Strait closer to war? Make no mistake, there WILL be war, and the instigator will not be the PRC, who has made its stance VERY clear.

Selfish or moronic, Chen is cast in a pretty negative light.

[FuManChu]

so your rational is because A-Bien's voter base is eroding, he has the right to nudge the Strait closer to war? Make no mistake, there WILL be war, and the instigator will not be the PRC, who has made its stance VERY clear.

What the hell? Chen has just reiterated what he has often said, and it's a step towards war? So what the blue-blazes has China been doing? It has a constant build-up of missiles and other military assets pointedly directed at Taiwan, brought in the Anti-Secession Act, is trying to cut Taiwan off from the world diplomatically, economically and militarily and generally does everything it can to stop Taiwan being anything but 100% reliant on the mainland.

If I apply the logic displayed in your last post, China has already initiated hostilities by its aforementioned actions. That Chen has not responded with a UDI shows his restraint in comparison.

Personally I do not think anything will come out of this. China should be far too clever to overreact by starting military operations, and Chen isn't going to throw away the hard work he has put in since 2000 to increase Taiwan's identity, just to make a UDI. Indeed Taiwan knows its survival is based on US support, which would evaporate if it went too far. Thus there won't be a war anytime soon. If there is one, it is more likely to be because China becomes overly confident of its chances of success and/or reacts irrationally to events in Taiwan.

[eecsmaster]

China is not innocent in this context. After all, it takes two to tango. However, PRC's actions have been very consistant with their announced political objective, not so for Chen.

Chen pledged to stay away from inciting unnecessary tension in the straits. Specifically, if my memory is correct, he said he would uphold the "Three No's". So it is he who has deviated from a politically stable course.

[FuManChu]

China is not innocent in this context. After all, it takes two to tango. However, PRC's actions have been very consistant with their announced political objective, not so for Chen.

So what you're saying is, because the PRC has displayed unreasonable behaviour in the past it's ok to continue being like that? That is ludicrous. Maybe the PRC needs to change its attitude to facilitate negotiation, rather than insisting the other side conforms to its requirements.

[kunmingren]

chen isnt the only one who has to appeal to constituency. Hu jintao and Wen jiabao also has to placate the public in mainland. China has always been ruled by autocrates, but even the emperors during the imperial era has to 'appear' to rule according to people's will.

therefore, the communists have to say things like that to appear tough to the public. its no difference from bush standing in front of congress and saying he is going to kick some al-qaida asses.

[fishhead]

Most of the Chinese will hope he is serious this time, he means what he says.

The people are waiting for the real big show, but less interested in playing vocal games anymore today. China has all the nuts and bolts to do some nasty things,they've spent quite a bit in past years and want to see missiles launching with real warheads in real combats.

The mode has changed...

[eecsmaster]

Ludicrous? Or maybe your poli-sci skills need a bit of retouching. First of all, how can you define anything as unreasonable in the given context? PRC's rhetorics are very consistant: territorial integrity above all. You can't say the same for Chen.

In polisci courses, and I assume you've taken a few because you are clearly not in the engineering, it is stressed that a key note of stability is a well expressed goal. If you strip away all that naive good and bad trash, you would notice that political stability in the straits is best served with the status quo.

Now who's actively trying to move the status quo?

[Duran]

And if the KMT doesn't win? Another four years of bad Sino-Taiwanese relations because Beijing still wants to sulk in the corner? That's not good for peace. If the Americans can bite down on their pride the Chinese government can too.

With the current public finance status continuing, it might not be the case no matter which party will win the election. According to some estimation from KMT party, the increasing accumulation of public deficit after DPP party took power 7 years ago is around NT$1,200,000,000,000 (around US$36,400,000,000, with 33US$/NT$.) For the last couple of years, if deducting its trade surplus of around US$40~US$50 billion from China per annum, Taiwan would have real big problems. For example, 2005 Taiwan had US$7 billion trade surplus, but China alone contributed US$58 billion. And 2006, Taiwan's surplus with China narrowed to US$38 billion.

Some people are worrying the above mentioned trade surplus will narrow. After China increases its commercial cooperation with global MNCs in R&D, global marketing activities and etc, China will cut its importation of components and machinery from Taiwan by buying similar products locally.

People might consider Chen's remarks as election language because it is DPP's strategy for propaganda. They intend to let people, especially for foreigners, think so.

For those who can read Chinese can use google to search with '潘興飛彈' (Pershing missile) and 'Yoshiki Hidaka' and read the article comes up. It' s on a local newspaper, LibertyTime, April 2nd, 2005. It's an article by a Mr. Peng suggesting that one way of deterring China is to persuade US selling its Pershing missile to Taiwan as a preemptive weaponry against China. The article also said 'US authority implied' that Taiwan could bomb the three gorges dam as retaliation for being attacked. The Mr. Peng is not a no-body, he was an central government official when published this article. It may sound crazy and stupid. But those hard-core secessionist, they really seek an opportunity of military confrontation between the Straits. Because they believe the confrontation will stir the hate toward China and sum up the will to be against foreign enemy. It is My deepest fear that the military confrontation might be inevitable because of purposely manipulation and cooking by people both inside and outside of Taiwan.

[FuManChu]

Ludicrous? Or maybe your poli-sci skills need a bit of retouching. First of all, how can you define anything as unreasonable in the given context? PRC's rhetorics are very consistant: territorial integrity above all. You can't say the same for Chen.

Why do you focus on rhetoric? Words are meaningless. Look at the facts as I've said already:

Chinese missile/military asset build-up directed at Taiwan
Anti-Secession Act
Opposition to Taiwan being a member of global organisations
Opposition to Taiwan signing trade deals with other countries
Opposition to Taiwan even buying air-to-air missiles and spare parts
Opposition to Taiwanese political leaders visiting other countries
Deliberately trying to marginalise Taiwan diplomatically and economically in the international sense

The list goes on. China's actions are far more unreasonable than anything Taiwan has done. It attempts to directly hurt Taiwan and make its life difficult, maybe in the hope that if it inflicts enough pain and suffering Taiwan will come begging. Whether that is what Chinese leaders really think or not, what China does to Taiwan day-after-day cannot be defended.

If you strip away all that naive good and bad trash, you would notice that political stability in the straits is best served with the status quo.

Now who's actively trying to move the status quo?

China has been moving the status quo for years with its military build-up and diplomatic & economic, anti-Tawainese campaigns!

[Jeff Head]

Most of the Chinese will hope he is serious this time, he means what he says.

The people are waiting for the real big show, but less interested in playing vocal games anymore today. China has all the nuts and bolts to do some nasty things,they've spent quite a bit in past years and want to see missiles launching with real warheads in real combats.

The mode has changed...I hope you are wrong. People thinking this way have usually never experienced the true nature of war or its results, and particularly are not thinking that such results could ever impact them. In a real shooting war they may find that they are horribly mistaken.

No one should want or be eager for war just because they have spent the money on all those "neat toys" and now want to see them used. Their best use is to be a deterrent to others so they never have to be used.

That's because it is a deadly game where real people, with real children and interests die horribly...on both sides. I pray it can be avoided and that it occurs to the satisfaction of the people themselves (not the politicians or rulers) and to the beneift of their prosperity and personal freedom, because, as I say, I honestly believe the latter (personal freedom) begats the former (prosperity).

[FuManChu]

I hope you are wrong. People thinking this way have usually never experienced the true nature of war or its results, and particularly are not thinking that such results could ever impact them. In a real shooting war they may find that they are horribly mistaken.

I hope he's wrong too, but there is a growing sense of confidence - or maybe I should say "over-confidence" - that China can take Taiwan and the US on whenever it wants. Or that the US would never dare to defend Taiwan against China, which is just as dangerous.

[fishhead]

I hope you are wrong. People thinking this way have usually never experienced the true nature of war or its results, and particularly are not thinking that such results could ever impact them. In a real shooting war they may find that they are horribly mistaken.

No one should want or be eager for war just because they have spent the money on all those "neat toys" and now want to see them used. Their best use is to be a deterrent to others so they never have to be used.



Let's not argue which is right nor wrong. I will summerize the Chinese mode in 3 sentences:

10 years ago it's shock and rhetoric

5 years ago people are enranged

Today it's very very calm, and confident, nobody says much but the whole country are gearing up for the war....

[SampanViking]

Stock markets wobble, Greenspan warns of recession and suddenly up springs Chen using the "I" word.

Maybe Chen is trying to use economic blackmail of some sort, by trying to claim he can influence global markets or something. Either way hw will have mightily p'd off Washington, who would rather things stay calm right now.

[eecsmaster]

Words are meaningless in the realm of international politics? Do you need rehab?

Sure the PRC has been adding missiles. Lots of missiles. But you cannot deny the fact that the usage of these missiles are dependent solely on the political objective of PRC. In this context, nothing changes because PRC never shifted its political objective.

[FuManChu]

Stock markets wobble, Greenspan warns of recession and suddenly up springs Chen using the "I" word.

Maybe Chen is trying to use economic blackmail of some sort, by trying to claim he can influence global markets or something.

Sampan, I'm surprised you'd even suggest such a thing, given how irrational the logic required in coming to that conclusion is.

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/03/05/business/AS-FIN-MKT-World-Markets.php

There's absolutely no mention of Taiwan in there at all. World markets have been jittery recently due to fears over the US economy. The only way Taiwan could make an impact is if there were a UDI and/or China announced military action.

Either way hw will have mightily p'd off Washington, who would rather things stay calm right now.

Maybe, but then again the State Department is fairly hypocritical.

President Chen makes a speech? Oh my God, how terrible.

China deploys approaching 1,000 missiles within range of Taiwan, Chinese leaders make their own provocative speeches, China generally threatens Taiwan's ability to look after itself.......... Nah, according to the State Department there's nothing wrong with that.

[Gollevainen]

Ok I think we all have get our change to open up about Taiwanese independency....
So its time to close the thread and remind you all (expecially those who are new to the forum) that this is military forum that FORBIDS all political discussion. There are plenty of forums out there for that purpose....