CHESS: US positioning there chess piece around China

[Chengdu J-10]

:coffee: HICKAM AIR FORCE BASE, Hawaii: Air Force officials are scheduled to deploy a squadron of F-22 Raptors to Kadena Air Base, Japan, as part of U.S. Pacific Command's Theater Security Package in the Western Pacific in early 2007.

This will be the first overseas deployment for the Air Force's newest fighter.

The F-22 is a transformational combat aircraft that is effectively invisible to threats, cruises at supersonic speeds, is highly maneuverable, and provides the joint force an unprecedented level of integrated situational awareness. As part of continuing force-posture adjustments to address worldwide requirements, the United States continues to deploy additional forces throughout the Western Pacific.

This is the latest example of the flexibility U.S. forces have to meet our ongoing commitments and security obligations throughout the Pacific region by maintaining a flexible and credible presence.

Translation: US are positioning their chess pieces around China to either be ready or prevent China from asserting influence around Asia and to be on alert on possible invasion of Tawain. Deploy a squadron of F-22 Raptors to Kadena Air Base, Japan, as part of U.S. Pacific Command's Theater Security Package in the Western Pacific in early 2007 Meaning placing force in order to foresee China's action and be ready for future warfare with China. Placing the pieces around China is what the US is doing currently.
US have alliance with India, South Korea, Japan, Tawain. Now breaking this up US have the South section (India & Singapore) of China covered up, East section of China covered up (Tawain) North section (Japan and South Korea) now covered up. And soon the East section (Middle East) covered up. So US is boxing China in to prevent China from asserting influence to other nations and thus the US starts to loose control. In short the US feels threaten with China's growth and is either preventing or getting ready for the Red giant to pounce. :coffee:

This post: Discuss about the US positioning their forces, China counter action, etc.:china:

[FuManChu]

Why is it that whenever the US makes a deployment in Asia, it has to be about China? Sure China is a concern, but so is North Korea. Currently there is still way more chance of conflict breaking out between Pyongyang and Washington than with Beijing.

[bd popeye]

This post: Discuss about the US positioning their forces, China counter action, etc

This deployment of the Raptor to the Pacific is no more than a normal deployment. The aircraft had to be deployed eventually. Did anyone really expect the US to keep the aircraft in the US? I for one did not.

Did you know that for the last several years the USAF has been deploying F-15 and Bomber squadrons to Andersen AFB in Guam? Actually the B-52 deployments have been ongoing for about 40 years.

The US forces have been in place and deploying on a rotational basis in the Pacific since the end of WWII. Those deployments will not end anytime soon.

[Scratch]

With all the new stuff coming from China and operating in and over the straits, I could imagine that deployment to aim much more on unconventional ISR than strike capabilities.
The US may want to have an eye on that. The Blackbirds are out of service, the U-2s are slow, relativly easy to detect; the Global Hawk may be an option.
But anyway it would be a chance to test the Raptors systems.

http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/2005/10/supersonic-sigint-will-f35-f22-also-play-ew-role/index.php

[Vlad Plasmius]

The aircraft had to be deployed eventually.

True, but then why Japan and not somewhere in the Middle East?

[bd popeye]

True, but then why Japan and not somewhere in the Middle East?

Probally because there is no real threat to the US air power in the middle east. That same cannot be said about the Pacific.

[Vlad Plasmius]

Iran has the Phoenix missiles though. If anything ever happened with Iran, we'd need some F-22s.

[bd popeye]

Iran has the Phoenix missiles though. If anything ever happened with Iran, we'd need some F-22s.

The IIAF(IAF) was delivered either 284 -r 279 AIM-54 Pheonix missiles in 1979. I wonder how many, if any, are left? Also did the Irainans clone the Pheonix? If so did they fit it for their new aircraft? According to this link the AIM-54 that Iran recieved were downgraded.

Also ponder this..Does the IAF have any Tomcats left that are able to fly strike missions?

http://home.att.net/~jbaugher1/f14_6.html

[Vlad Plasmius]

The IIAF(IAF) was delivered either 284 -r 279 AIM-54 Pheonix missiles in 1979. I wonder how many, if any, are left? Also did the Irainans clone the Pheonix? If so did they fit it for their new aircraft? According to this link the AIM-54 that Iran recieved were downgraded.

That attachment should answer your first and/or second question.

As for fitting it for their new aircraft, the Iranians have shown the capacity to adapt all kinds of weapons to all kinds of aircraft, such as outfitting American fighters with Russian weapons and radar.

The Iranians have also constantly upgraded their other missiles. I see no reason to think they would be doing the same to the Phoenix.

Also ponder this..Does the IAF have any Tomcats left that are able to fly strike missions?

I don't think I was talking about that. I was talking about air defense.

[bd popeye]

That attachment should answer your first and/or second question.

As for fitting it for their new aircraft, the Iranians have shown the capacity to adapt all kinds of weapons to all kinds of aircraft, such as outfitting American fighters with Russian weapons and radar.

The Iranians have also constantly upgraded their other missiles. I see no reason to think they would be doing the same to the Phoenix.

I don't think I was talking about that. I was talking about air defense.

My response was meant to stimulate the discussion. I'm sorry if there was an misunderstanding.:(

The problem with updating older stockpiles of missiles is the rocket motors. As rocket motors get older they have a tendenacy to develop cracks. Once the rocket motor has cracks it is useless because it will explode before it reaches the target.

If the Iranians do have any Pheonix missiles I bet they are some sort of updated clones. It would be very intersting to see the re-designed AIM-54 if it did indeed exist.

[Vlad Plasmius]

My response was meant to stimulate the discussion. I'm sorry if there was an misunderstanding.

The problem with updating older stockpiles of missiles is the rocket motors. As rocket motors get older they have a tendenacy to develop cracks. Once the rocket motor has cracks it is useless because it will explode before it reaches the target.

If the Iranians do have any Pheonix missiles I bet they are some sort of updated clones. It would be very intersting to see the re-designed AIM-54 if it did indeed exist.

Well, Iran has been very adept at finding parts through black market sources and has worked on producing the parts themselves. I think you underestimate the Iranians, though.

Which, could mean that's exactly why we have F-22s in Japan and not near Iran. While some attention is given to their nuclear developments, which have yet to produce weapons, as far as we know, their general military abilities haven't been.

While AWACS might be able to mitigate the Phoenix threat, that depends solely on an attack happening on terms we can set.

As such, I think it's strange that with the recent arms buildup near Iran that F-22s are being deployed near China.

[Jeff Head]

Well, Iran has been very adept at finding parts through black market sources and has worked on producing the parts themselves. I think you underestimate the Iranians, though.

While AWACS might be able to mitigate the Phoenix threat, that depends solely on an attack happening on terms we can set.This is not a matter of underestimating the Iranians. IMHO, it is just highly unlikely, nearly impossible, for the Iranians to have maintained their AIM-54 stocks since 1979for very practical and obvious reasons. They did not develope the system and they have had no support and no replacement parts from the people who did for over 27 years.

It is equally unlikely, despite what is said on Iranian forums and in Tom Cooper's book, that the Iranians have cloned a Phoneix missile to anything close to its original capability. Originally, as difficult as the missile and fire control systems were to operate, Iran depended heavily on American technicians. After the coup, when the Americans left, they took most of the expertise about how to operate and maintain the Phoenix with them. In addition, the support directly from Hughes Aircraft Missile Systems Group ended, along with corresponding spares and upgrades. Without those, even a technically competent Air Force would have difficulty keeping the weapons operational, particularly over so many years.

IMHO, the Iranians would come closer to the capability by buying some AA-9, Amos, missiles from the Russians which I would much more easily believe and count as a threat...but there are no intelligence indications that the Russians have ever exported that technology to the Iranians to my knowledge.

What the Iranians have developed on their own in terms of a LRAAM may well be up for question, but I would be very surprised if they had anything remotely close to the capability of the AIM-54 that they themselves have developed, tested, produced, and successfully deployed, but that's just my opinion

[SteelBird]

Ah ha... :rofl: this thread seems about to go off topic. Its title is "CHESS: US positioning there chess piece around China" but now people are discussing about iranian's anti-air missile capability... :off

[Jeff Head]

Ah ha... :rofl: this thread seems about to go off topic. Its title is "CHESS: US positioning there chess piece around China" but now people are discussing about iranian's anti-air missile capability... :offYou are quite right. The original context of these statements was why the F-22 near China when there is this supposed capabilty in Iran...which has drawn us off to discussing Iran. Thanks for the "gentle" reminder.

[Vlad Plasmius]

This is not a matter of underestimating the Iranians. IMHO, it is just highly unlikely, nearly impossible, for the Iranians to have maintained their AIM-54 stocks since 1979 for very practical and obvious reasons.

So explain all the photos and eyewitness accounts showing F-14s flying with Phoenix missiles.

While you can throw doubt around a lot, this is just one point. Under the circumstances an attack on Iran by F-22s would have much higher chances of success than if it was done by F-18s, F-15s, or F-16s.

So, it seems odd to place F-22s there at a time when pressure is growing on Iran.

[Finn McCool]

So explain all the photos and eyewitness accounts showing F-14s flying with Phoenix missiles.

While you can throw doubt around a lot, this is just one point. Under the circumstances an attack on Iran by F-22s would have much higher chances of success than if it was done by F-18s, F-15s, or F-16s.

So, it seems odd to place F-22s there at a time when pressure is growing on Iran.

I bet that the USAF is glad that the Shah didn't choose to order the F-15. The link said that was an option. Those would cause a lot more headaches. I personally think that the IRIAF has been able to keep a few Phoneixes in service. I can't really say why, just that they have been able to keep all the other Western systems they have in at least some form of service so I don't see why they couldn't do the same with the Phoneix.

As for the real topic of this thread, I've read that USN DDGs frequently make port calls in Taipei, for obvious reasons. Is this true? Popeye, do you have any info on this?

[Jeff Head]

So explain all the photos and eyewitness accounts showing F-14s flying with Phoenix missiles.

While you can throw doubt around a lot, this is just one point. Under the circumstances an attack on Iran by F-22s would have much higher chances of success than if it was done by F-18s, F-15s, or F-16s.

So, it seems odd to place F-22s there at a time when pressure is growing on Iran.Do you know for a fact that those are operational Phoenix missiles? For all of the reasons I stated I have severe doubt regarding that , and will continue to do so until I see something a lot more compelling than a few photos...like the actual data and telemetry of the engagements or live tests that can be examined by third party technicains.

Anyhow, this thread is not about Iran and the US positioning there, it is about China and so I will choose to go back on tpoic.

[bd popeye]

So explain all the photos and eyewitness accounts showing F-14s flying with Phoenix missiles.

:off More than likely they are old photos. If not can someone please post recent IAF pictures? That would clear that up. Well sorta.

I'm sure the Shah was sold training missiles. Which are the same except they have no explosive warhead. Why training missiles. AIM-54 was very expensive. Besides with a training missile you can turn it on and get a tone to simulate a dogfight.:off

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I'm also guilty of going :off Let us stay on topic.
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As for the real topic of this thread, I've read that USN DDGs frequently make port calls in Taipei, for obvious reasons. Is this true? Popeye, do you have any info on this?

Years ago(25-35) the USN made regular port calls in Taipei ROC. No CV's. The water was to shallow. But port calls are no longer made. I do not know why. Could be politics.

I will check navy.mil to be sure.

[Vlad Plasmius]

The photos I'm talking about come from last September.

I just think the decision not to deploy F-22s to the Middle east will turn out to be a bad decision for the U.S. if our guys decided to start tussling with Iran.

I doubt they moved F-22s to Japan for fear of North Korea.

[Scratch]

I doubt they moved F-22s to Japan for fear of North Korea.
As I stated more detailed in post #4, how about unconventional ISR in/around NK, China?
Or perhaps show the Raptor to the japanese military.

[bd popeye]

Or perhaps show the Raptor to the japanese military.


I'm sure the JSDF has seen the Raptor. Simply because the JSDF are frequently in the US for training.

Why the Raptor in the Pacific? Simple..N. Korea Why? Maybe to show Kim the US is serious about the situation in N. Korea. And of course China has a large and powerful air force. A simple show of force...

I know that in the future the USAF plans to base more Raptors permantely in Alaska later this year.

http://www.spacewar.com/reports/F_22_Raptor_To_Be_Deployed_To_The_Northern_Pacific _999.html

[Vlad Plasmius]

I just think it seems like an odd place to first deploy your best fighter when you have an ongoing buildup in the Middle East and cinreasing dangers of regional war that will drag in the U.S.

Understandably there's North Korea and China, but that was the point the person who started this thread was trying to make. That this was part of an ongoing containment effort. The fact it isn't deployed in the Middle East first just helps to show where the focus is.

[Jeff Head]

Understandably there's North Korea and China, but that was the point the person who started this thread was trying to make. That this was part of an ongoing containment effort. The fact it isn't deployed in the Middle East first just helps to show where the focus is.IMHO, this individual is correct, along with exactly what Popeye said...the Asian deployment is a show of force for N. Korea and China...as simple as that, and for US allies to see that they are taking it seriously.

My guess is that it is believed within the US defense circles that Super Hornets and F-15s and F-15Es can handle anything the Iranians or Syrians put in the air.

If things get hot over Taiwan, the US would want Raptors supporting the F-15s against SU-30s and SU-27s from China. But that's just my guess.

[Baibar of Jalat]

Chinese should look at the deployment as a positive(whilst in peacetime) because theres is the oppurtunity for China to gather intel through Electronic survillence, human intel and other sources.

Claims of the Chinese regarding their anti stealth tech can be put into practice against this stealthy threat.

1. Test the anti steath radar by placing it on special modified ships around korea to accertain the results. Or place facilaties in Noth Korea alongside the shipbased radar.

2. Gain Human intelligence i am certain the PRC has extensive intelligence activities directed against South Korea. PRC agents will attempt to obtain unofficial data regarding the preformance of the F22. :china:

Some suggestions i thought might generate discussion because the topic drifted towards Iran.

[bd popeye]

It's offical. The USS Ronald Reagan (CVN-76) will deploy to the Pacific in a few days...The USN says CVN-76 is deploying to cover for CV-63 which is undergoing a minor re-fit in Yokosuka Japan.

The USS John C Stennis (CVN-74) recently deployed to the Pacific and will head to the Persian gulf region.

http://www.navy.mil/search/display.asp?story_id=27444

Ronald Reagan Carrier Strike Group to Surge Deploy
Story Number: NNS070124-10
Release Date: 1/24/2007 9:41:00 PM

From USS Ronald Reagan Public Affairs

SAN DIEGO (NNS) -- USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76) Carrier Strike Group (CSG), with more than 5,000 sailors, will surge deploy Jan. 27, while USS Kitty Hawk (CV 63) undergoes scheduled maintenance in Yokosuka, Japan.

The Ronald Reagan CSG is deploying under the Navy's Fleet Response Plan (FRP) and will operate in the western Pacific in support of U.S. commitments in the region. FRP provides the U.S. with the ability to respond to any global commitment with flexible and sustainable forces and the ability to rapidly respond to a range of situations on short notice.

The Ronald Reagan CSG, commanded by Rear Adm. Charles W. Martoglio, is comprised of Commander, Carrier Strike Group 7 (CCG 7), Carrier Air Wing (CVW) 14, Destroyer Squadron (DESRON) 7, the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76), the guided-missile cruiser USS Lake Champlain (CG 57), the guided-missile destroyer USS Russell (DDG 59), and Explosive Ordnance Disposal Unit 11, Detachment 15.

"Our nation relies on flexible, credible forces forward deployed, ready for immediate employment to address the challenges we face today. Being able to project forces both rotationally and through surge readiness makes us more effective and responsive," Martoglio said.

The squadrons of CVW-14 include the Strike Fighter Squadrons (VFA) the Redcocks of VFA-22, the Fist of the Fleet of VFA-25, the Stingers of VFA-113, the Eagles of VFA-115, the Black Eagles of Airborne Early Warning Squadron (VAW) 113, the Cougars of Tactical Electronic Warfare Squadron (VAQ) 139, Providers of Carrier Logistics Support (VRC) 30 and the Black Knights of Helicopter Anti-Submarine Squadron (HS) 4.

The Ronald Reagan CSG returned from its maiden six-month deployment to the Persian Gulf and western Pacific Ocean in July. During its maiden deployment, the Ronald Reagan CSG supported Operations Iraqi Freedom and Enduring Freedom, conducted maritime security operations, and participated in joint and coalition exercises and operations with many countries and U.S. military services.

"We've maintained a high operational tempo since we returned from deployment, and our ability to surge now is a testament to the hard work of this crew in keeping the ship battle ready," said Capt. Terry B. Kraft, Ronald Reagan's commanding officer.

Ronald Reagan was commissioned in July 2003, making it the ninth Nimitz-class, nuclear-powered aircraft carrier. The ship is named for the 40th U.S. president; its motto, "Peace Through Strength," was a recurrent theme during the Reagan presidency

[Vlad Plasmius]

If things get hot over Taiwan, the US would want Raptors supporting the F-15s against SU-30s and SU-37s from China. But that's just my guess.

Do you mean Su-27s? You typed Su-37s.

If things get hot over Taiwan, I doubt anything we have could keep China from doing what they want. Unless we land our fighters in Taiwan, it's not going to do much good.

Of course, I'm not in charge so I can't do much about what I see to be poorly conceived deployments.

[Jeff Head]

Do you mean Su-27s? You typed Su-37s.

If things get hot over Taiwan, I doubt anything we have could keep China from doing what they want. Unless we land our fighters in Taiwan, it's not going to do much good.

Of course, I'm not in charge so I can't do much about what I see to be poorly conceived deployments.Yes, I meant SU-27s and have fixed the post to indicate it, thanks for seeing that.

And, I would disagree about not being able to do anything. With strong air support off of Guam (using mid-air refueling) and with a couple of Carrier groups laying off to the east of the Island, air supremacy and control would easily be denied the PLAAF, which they must have in order to cross the straits. The ROCAF is also no slouch, and with that type of support Taiwan would be an extremely tough nut to crack.

The PRC's only real hope would be to effect the victory before US forces could arrive, and with these new fighters going to the western Pacific and with a second carrier being deployed to the Pacific, I believe the US is making moves to prevent that from happening.

[Vlad Plasmius]

And, I would disagree about not being able to do anything. With strong air support off of Guam (using mid-air refueling) and with a couple of Carrier groups laying off to the east of the Island, air supremacy and control would easily be denied the PLAAF, which they must have in order to cross the straits. The ROCAF is also no slouch, and with that type of support Taiwan would be an extremely tough nut to crack.

The PRC's only real hope would be to effect the victory before US forces could arrive, and with these new fighters going to the western Pacific and with a second carrier being deployed to the Pacific, I believe the US is making moves to prevent that from happening.

Well that's just it, the PLA now has the ability to strike hard, fast, and without warning on Taiwan. With the LACM, LS-6, and YJ-91 it's possible for the PLAAF to make a decisive strike inside Taiwan from the air and from a distance. In the air they Su-30MKKs with R-77s, J-10s with PL-12s, likely J-11s with PL-12s soon, and maybe FC-1s with PL-12s.

Include the 071, Zubrs they're looking to purchase and a substantial airlift capability. It is possible for China to launch a strike and have boots on the ground withing hours. It also makes it possible for China to strike with little warning and at a range where American intercept is impossible, even from F-22s.

In short, I think F-22s won't do much good.

[Jeff Head]

It is possible for China to launch a strike and have boots on the ground withing hours..Sorry, we disagree. The ROC defense forces will hold the ground for several days (Navy, Air Force, etc.)...and with US assets in the region, close by, that will make it possible for the US to interevene long before the boots ever touch the ground.

Besides, with aerial refueling, US F-22s and F-15s can be over the island in short order in any case, and once there, they will make a difference in the air.

The PLAN and PLAAF have to get total air dominance and total sea dominance before they ever commit to amphibious operations, and that will not happen in a few hours. If the US has assets in the region and can respond in a few hours (and is willing to), I do not believe they PRC will be able to obtain it at all.

[FuManChu]

I just think it seems like an odd place to first deploy your best fighter when you have an ongoing buildup in the Middle East and cinreasing dangers of regional war that will drag in the U.S.

It isn't odd. Maybe the North Koreans think that with talks going on and the Iranians being awkward, the can get away with pushing the international community further, as they "can't" deal with both regimes at the same time.

The US is sending a message that they'll break out the riot gear if either Tehran or Pyongyang go too far.

Sorry, we disagree. The ROC defense forces will hold the ground for several days (Navy, Air Force, etc.)...and with US assets in the region, close by, that will make it possible for the US to interevene long before the boots ever touch the ground.

I agree. China could make a fast air/missile strike against Taiwan, but that isn't going to secure the island. It would need to assemble troops and naval assets, which would take time. Mobilising those assets prior to any attack would put US, Taiwanese and Japanese military units on full alert, giving them time to prepare a response. Launching air attacks first would equally give the game away, before ground troops could be put in a position to invade.

What's China going to do? It couldn't realistically hide a build-up of the magnitude that could safely secure Taiwan - the old men in Beijing wouldn't be so stupid to try to make a half-arsed, "covert" attempt to take the island (failure would mean the end for them). The only hope is that the US wouldn't want to fight China over Taiwan, but that would be a highly foolish position to take, unless the Taiwanese government was feeling suicidal and had clearly (i.e. in Washington's opinion) provoked China.

[adeptitus]

IMO it's impossible for the PLAN to stockpile an invasion force without detection. As soon as they gather transport ships and start loading military assets en mass, we'd be seeing up to the minuet news reports on Taiwan media. There's simply way too many eyes watching.

However I also think people are way overly obsessed over the Taiwan invasion scenario or something down in the Nan Sha islands area. It's been 2 decades and I still haven't seen any sign of the supposed giant resource deposits in the Spratleys. I think they've finally realized that the petro field is actually over on the Malaysia side and they're already tapping it. :rofl:

What I do see as a realistic scenario, is if ROC makes significant moves toward TI, the PLAN may stage an invasion of Matsu and Kinmen as a show of force. Those islets are much smaller and within shelling range from PRC. If the PLAN takes one of the islets by force, the ROCN is in no posiiton to recover it, and the US may protest and send a naval armada over as show of force, but prolly wouldn't attempt to "liberate' the tiny islet so long as Taiwan itself is safe.

From PRC point of view, if ROC declares TI and they're in no position to recover it militarily, they could go for Matsu and Kinmen as a face-saving military action. "well those rebels declared TI... but we showed them and recovered some of our territory" etc. It'd prolly result in a military build-up and stand-off in the area for 10-20 years before things cool down.

[FuManChu]

Taiwan would let control of Kinmen and Matsu slip if China attacked. Last year they decided to re-deploy the 584th Armoured Brigade to Taipei from Kinmen, which will then be expanded with more men and vehicles. This shows they're focusing on defending "core territory" rather than trying to vainly hold on to outlying islands, which is the right plan IMHO.

Not saying the troops there wouldn't fight, but they'd certainly not waste assets trying to hold or retake them.

[bd popeye]

Gentlemen, If you want to keep this thread open discontinue the ROC Vs PRC chit chat. We all know how those threads wind up.>>> IN FLAMES<<<. Otherwise I will close this thread.:nono:

Discuss the US forces positioning & re-positioniong in the Pacific and their capablities.

bd popeye super moderator

[Scratch]

Plus, the currently one 071 won't do it alone, we discussed that in the "PLAN amphibious assault capability" thread I think.
It's just the game we call life. (I'm so poetic today :D )
China does a military buildup (all the new stuff coming out) and the US sais "we're aware of it".
I believe the NK issue is much more imminent. Some people might get the oppinion the US is deeply involved elswhere and can't afford to "police" another area. The US just tries to state that this is not the case.
And that's only one SQ. I don't think you can say "positioning around China", since this SQ will be stationed at one AFB.

[BLUEJACKET]

IMO those F-22s are on Guam to get their first "real world" deployment experiece in a theater they are most likely to operate and to check their interoperability with USN CSGs. Let's not forget that Guam hosts many valuable assets of both USN & USAF and is at very strategic location. This is the Diego Garsia of the Pacific!
It cold also be the way to free up extra F-15s for possible airsrikes on Iran. On the other hand, "show of force" aspect can't be discounted either- as a responce to unveiling of J-10 and ASAT test, not to mention NK missile tests.
There is also a possibility of them deploying to the ME later on a short notice- sending the F-22s there now would surely be viewed as escalation and overt preparation for striking Iran. See post #68 (http://www.sinodefenceforum.com/showthread.php?t=2420&page=5)- I updated it.

[Vlad Plasmius]

Sorry, we disagree. The ROC defense forces will hold the ground for several days (Navy, Air Force, etc.)...and with US assets in the region, close by, that will make it possible for the US to interevene long before the boots ever touch the ground.

Besides, with aerial refueling, US F-22s and F-15s can be over the island in short order in any case, and once there, they will make a difference in the air.

The PLAN and PLAAF have to get total air dominance and total sea dominance before they ever commit to amphibious operations, and that will not happen in a few hours. If the US has assets in the region and can respond in a few hours (and is willing to), I do not believe they PRC will be able to obtain it at all.

I don't intend to have an ROC-PRC discussion. My point strictly relates to U.S. ability to respond to an inital surprise attack quickly enough to make a difference in that attack.

Okinawa is the closest airbase that I know of in regards to Taiwan. That base is 400 miles away. Even at supercruise, it would take an F-22 around 20 minutes I'd surmise to make it over to Taipei. This isn't even considering how long it would take to get over the Taiwan strait or other parts of the island. This is also not considering the time to get the aircraft in the air.

It would essentially be impossible to detect any initial attack and it would be fast and overwhelming. Essentially unavertable. The Taiwan straits are only 100 miles wide and the best radar coverage Taiwan has is maybe 200 miles inland and how capable they would be of recognizing a mass attack quickly before it occurs in time for F-22s to be scrambled and make it to the Straits is limited, considering they could be scrambled in the minutes before the attack began. The attack would then last maybe 30 minutes before the fighters would be able to fly back to China. That's the window we'd have to intervene. The time to scramble sufficient F-22s, even if we really pushed it and the ability to get them over there even at supercruise would just not be enough.

In my view, even F-22s aren't really viable for the missions because they'd end up just loitering around after the attack and possibly awaiting a second wave. The first wave, however, would be capable of making the end result clear.

North Korea is just simply weak enough that we don't need stealth fighters. Their ground forces are given the biggest emphasis in training and strategy. They're largely stuck in old Soviet doctrine with regards to air power. Not to say they couldn't prove incredibly deadly, however, F-22s would be extreme overkill and ultimately not deal a heavy blow to the major ground offensive that would be ongoing.

My point being their placement in Asia does little more than make empty threats. They aren't really needed there. I just think they'd be more useful in an eventual confrontation with Iran.

In Iran there is a military equipped with American F-14s and Phoenix missiles, even if you don't believe they have them it is certainly a danger, as well as Tor-M1s. Even the hawks could pose a threat to our normal fighters.

[Scratch]

If you fly at M1.5 at greate altitude, it takes about 25min to cover 400miles, if you now include climbing and accelerating that's at least 30min I think.
To cover the the straits at low altitude with M0.9 takes around 10min. If the PLAAF aircraft come in low, range is low as well and they would have to be transfered to a near the strait airfield or being refuled in the area wich couldn't go totaly unnoticed I think. And if you only take aircraft from that military region, numbers are not high enough to fight a decissive battle.
If you want greater range, they have to fly high, wich also increases the detection range by the taiwanese.
And since that part of the world is really watched closely, it's at least hard to do a suprise attack of that scale.
So, if the Raptors are nearly instantly scrambled they could perhaps hunt down some of the fleeing aircraft. Taking them away from a follow on attack wich would have to occur, IMO. And after such an incident, survilliance would be increased strongly, giving still more time for reaction.

I hope I didn't come too close to a full war confrontation, since my intention was only to respond to Vlad Plasmius thoughts in tactical aspects.

[Vlad Plasmius]

I suggest you look briefly at the assets China has near Taiwan. They have hundreds of aicraft and, they have at least one if not two squadrons of Su-30MKKs withing strike range. Also, the cruise missiles China has can be launched from over 900 miles away. The LS-6 can be launched from nearly 200 miles away. Also, air distance of even 900 miles at subsonic speed can be covered in a little over an hour. When being launched by surprise those aircraft will be undetected until they're about 200 or 100 miles away from the Taiwanese cost.

That gives very little time for scrambling fighters. The amount of activity need to carry all this out would be fairly easy to conceal as well. Also, an initial air attack could be launched right when troops begin getting prepared. So the possibility of detecting troop movements before hand is limited.

It would only be a few guys fitting weapons onto the aircraft. It's not like there'd be huge fleet movements or anything like that.

A surprise air attack and naval attack could be mounted quickly and easily. Obviously not an occupation force, but even some amount of troops maybe under 50,000 could be ready at the drop of a hat and arousing little suspicion before the attack.

Since this kind of attack could be launched without warning, it would mitigate our effectiveness in responding to it.

[Jeff Head]

I suggest you look briefly at the assets China has near Taiwan. They have hundreds of aicraft and, they have at least one if not two squadrons of Su-30MKKs withing strike range. Also, the cruise missiles China has can be launched from over 900 miles away. The LS-6 can be launched from nearly 200 miles away. Also, air distance of even 900 miles at subsonic speed can be covered in a little over an hour. When being launched by surprise those aircraft will be undetected until they're about 200 or 100 miles away from the Taiwanese cost.

That gives very little time for scrambling fighters. The amount of activity need to carry all this out would be fairly easy to conceal as well. Also, an initial air attack could be launched right when troops begin getting prepared. So the possibility of detecting troop movements before hand is limited.

It would only be a few guys fitting weapons onto the aircraft. It's not like there'd be huge fleet movements or anything like that.

A surprise air attack and naval attack could be mounted quickly and easily. Obviously not an occupation force, but even some amount of troops maybe under 50,000 could be ready at the drop of a hat and arousing little suspicion before the attack.

Since this kind of attack could be launched without warning, it would mitigate our effectiveness in responding to it.Sorry, again, we disagree. The logisitics of mounting a large "surprise" attack, and then the necessary logistics of maintaining it will not go unnnoticed IMHO. That entire area is under constant surveillance scrutiy.

The ROCAF will allso be there with their own aircraft to interdict as will the anti-air defenses they have amassed...and I would not discount them.

It is most likely that the "surprise" attack will be launched from ballistic missiles by the scores that are already there and require little preparation. Trying to get hundreds of aircraft into the air at one time is a different matter.

My guess is that an initial attack will be defended by the ROCAF princially, but then the US will be on scene and any air superiority will shift back...amking the invasion virtually impossible. but those are all simply my own opinions.

[Scratch]

Ok, good points here, but if you argue that way it's difficult to be in a position to defend Taiwan at all. Because There are perhaps only 2-4 aircraft ready to take off on short notice and not the whole SQ. Those numbers are insufficient anyway. That means you need to have a CVN close by all the time, and one is at least in the area anyway (forward deployed to Japan). So I think the Raptors are there to be a good suplement.

[The_Zergling]

Ok, good points here, but if you argue that way it's difficult to be in a position to defend Taiwan at all. Because There are perhaps only 2-4 aircraft ready to take off on short notice and not the whole SQ. Those numbers are insufficient anyway. That means you need to have a CVN close by all the time, and one is at least in the area anyway (forward deployed to Japan). So I think the Raptors are there to be a good suplement.

2 to 4 aircraft are for each airfield, not the entire island. From what I've heard from my friends in the Taiwan military (not Air Force though, so make of this what you may) Taiwan constantly has radar trained on areas where Chinese fighters patrol, and generally will always respond to a Chinese flight with one of his own. The distance to the middle line of the strait (DMZ?) is constantly monitored, and if Chinese fighters get a bit closer then more flights are launched.

This may not be a sufficient defense should a full-scale air raid be launched, but basically it means that the Taiwanese will probably always have some sort of early warning system preparing them to brace for the first wave of attack, and then react accordingly.

In a first wave I wouldn't imagine Raptors to be all that useful, however as it is doubtful that a single wave would be able to immobilize the entire ROCAF, subsequent strikes would have to be made and for maximum effectiveness, around the clock to take advantage of the ROCAF's limited resources and equipment. Here F-22s supplementing Taiwanese fighters would come in handy.

[Vlad Plasmius]

Sorry, again, we disagree. The logisitics of mounting a large "surprise" attack, and then the necessary logistics of maintaining it will not go unnnoticed IMHO. That entire area is under constant surveillance scrutiy.

The ROCAF will allso be there with their own aircraft to interdict as will the anti-air defenses they have amassed...and I would not discount them.

It is most likely that the "surprise" attack will be launched from ballistic missiles by the scores that are already there and require little preparation. Trying to get hundreds of aircraft into the air at one time is a different matter.

My guess is that an initial attack will be defended by the ROCAF princially, but then the US will be on scene and any air superiority will shift back...amking the invasion virtually impossible. but those are all simply my own opinions.

I consider ballistic missiles as a likelihood, but I doubt they'd be used as extensively as you may believe. I also believe they would not be used without it being in conjunction with an air attack. I'm thinking a ballistic missile attack aiming at airbases and air defenses, mainly those away from major civillian areas would be the first of the strikes to land.

However, quickly following up would be LS-6s and DH-10s. LS-6s being aimed at many of the air defenses in place and some other strategic air defense assats. HARMs would be right behind those and involve KH-31Ps and YJ-91s. Then cruise missiles would come in and finally the actual few squadrons of aircraft for air attack would come in.

A first wave configured as such would be incredibly deadly. The intial ballistic missiles could severely damage airbases and possibly destroy aircraft as well as personnel. They would also cause damage to early warning radar and air defense. The following LS-6s would be impossible to intercept and as a result they would be target towards air defense batteries, the most capable and some of the shorter-range weapons. Then HARMs would target early warning radars and air defense radars. After that cruise missiles would move in on the severely reduced capabilities and target many more defense facilities, some air and air defense other more important logistical centers and, in particular weapons depots.

Finally a few squadrons of aircraft would fly in to take out any and all fighters launched as well as AWACs.

If anyone can find a significant flaw in that specific scenario, please tell me. I think in essence it is sound, however. With that kind of capability and Taiwan relying so heavily on foreign weapons in insufficient supplies a significant Chinese air attack and especially any major attacks on weapons storage would be damning to them.

This all capable of being achieve from significant distance and in plenty of time to retreat into the safety of Chinese air space.

The_Zergling

2 to 4 aircraft are for each airfield, not the entire island. From what I've heard from my friends in the Taiwan military (not Air Force though, so make of this what you may) Taiwan constantly has radar trained on areas where Chinese fighters patrol, and generally will always respond to a Chinese flight with one of his own. The distance to the middle line of the strait (DMZ?) is constantly monitored, and if Chinese fighters get a bit closer then more flights are launched.

This may not be a sufficient defense should a full-scale air raid be launched, but basically it means that the Taiwanese will probably always have some sort of early warning system preparing them to brace for the first wave of attack, and then react accordingly.

In a first wave I wouldn't imagine Raptors to be all that useful, however as it is doubtful that a single wave would be able to immobilize the entire ROCAF, subsequent strikes would have to be made and for maximum effectiveness, around the clock to take advantage of the ROCAF's limited resources and equipment. Here F-22s supplementing Taiwanese fighters would come in handy.

Which is why I'm considering it in terms of waves of weapons in the initial attack. Taiwan can only see maybe 200 miles inland at best.

The first attack being DH-10, LACMs, launched from well beyond Taiwanese radar range, the next being LS-6s, launched from significant range to be difficult to detect before they've launched at which point reaction time will be measure in minutes. Then would be HARMs, which would have ot bring aircraft close to mid-point, even slightly over, but they would do so quickly and quickly retreat. In addition, before any aircraft are in detection distance my thoughts would be that a ballistic missiles attack would be launched on all major airbases, an emphasis on weapon storage. This would severely inhibit the ability for the ROCAF to respond to any flights from bases near the straits the attacks on weapons would also inhibit their ability to do anything even if they can scramble some fighters.

[FuManChu]

Vlad, we don't know how many LACMs or DH-10s China has. To rely upon them to the point where they influence all subsequent events isn't sensible. For the LS-6, that's got a range of what - 40km? The aircraft carrying them would be detected by Taiwanese radar long before they were launched, so you need to increase the Taiwanese response time.

Anyway, then what? Assuming everything goes to plan and the ROCAF is smashed in a matter of hours (nothing ever goes to plan), how long is it going to take to mobilise the necessary units for a ground invasion?

If China had started mustering before the missile attacks, Taiwan would have been on alert and the US would be preparing its own response.

If China only then started assembling men and equipment, the US would still have time to respond, and Taiwanese forces could repair their bases and prepare for the attack.

[Vlad Plasmius]

Vlad, we don't know how many LACMs or DH-10s China has. To rely upon them to the point where they influence all subsequent events isn't sensible. For the LS-6, that's got a range of what - 40km? The aircraft carrying them would be detected by Taiwanese radar long before they were launched, so you need to increase the Taiwanese response time.

LS-6 can have its range extended to 300 kilometers. As for how many, well If they have a few dozen that's enough. At any rate, removing the radar and air defense ships would be achievable without LS-6s or DH-10s and destroying airbases would be attainable with ballistic missiles and special forces, those that don't seize some of the airfields.

Anyway, then what? Assuming everything goes to plan and the ROCAF is smashed in a matter of hours (nothing ever goes to plan), how long is it going to take to mobilise the necessary units for a ground invasion?

If China had started mustering before the missile attacks, Taiwan would have been on alert and the US would be preparing its own response.

If China only then started assembling men and equipment, the US would still have time to respond, and Taiwanese forces could repair their bases and prepare for the attack.

THe problem is, achieving complete air dominance would come quickly. The idea would be to launch a massive attack on Taiwan air and naval assets in the first attack and, if not destroying them, preventing their use in a subsequent naval blockade. Deploying naval forces would not take long and deploying special forces and establishng some beachheads would all be possible with Zubrs or 071s. Then a naval blockade in force with significant air support could launch tens of thousands of troops to create one or two defensible beachheads and control specific airbases and radar installations that are not destroyed. As I'm aware there are 30,000 airborne troops and around 10,000 Marines as well as thousands of special force. Add in some conventional forces and there can be a massive invasion force launched quickly and effectively.

Their rapid reaction units in the three nearby province number in the range of about 150,000 I think. Those are supposed to be able to completely prepare in mere days if needed. So in less than a week I think China could be fully capable of invading Taiwan with little warning.

In the end F-22s would not do much good in such small numbers they would be. We'd either have to land them in Taiwan, thus leaving them incredibly vulnerable, or make round trips to the airspace. I doubt we'd be able to refuel 24 F-22s constantly from the air they would also be incredibly exposed at that time too. Chances are F-22s would have to be out of air combat for some brief time periods.

We can't fight Taiwan's war for them. That's why we're so strict on them purchasing weapons. If they aren't able to defend themselves in some capacity then we won't do it for them.

That being the case, what I'm talking about makes the placement of F-22s little more than a show of force because it won't be much good in any other way, unless we decided to attack China itself.

[bd popeye]

Gentlemen, If you want to keep this thread open discontinue the ROC Vs PRC chit chat. We all know how those threads wind up.>>> IN FLAMES<<<. Otherwise I will close this thread.:nono:

Discuss the US forces positioning & re-positioniong in the Pacific and their capablities.

bd popeye super moderator

THREAD CLOSED