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Finn McCool
12-25-2006, 02:42 PM
I'm sure most people here are familiar with the situation that led up to this invasion. If your not, basically the Islamic Courts Union (a collection of various Islamic-influenced forces in Somalia) defeated the warlords that controlled Mogadishu this summer and now controls most of the country. The last few weeks have seen the forces of the Courts Union fighting the forces of the Provisional Government (established last year by foreign diplomats in Kenya) and what's left of the warlords militias around the town of Baidoa. Against all odds the Provisional Government's forces have been able to hold off the Islamic Courts (although it is unclear whether or not an all out assault has been launched). Ethiopia has been supporting the Provisional Government as it is mostly Christian and fears the populist power of the Islamic Courts Union. Besides, the Courts Union has declared jihad on Ethiopia. So now Ethiopia is cutting the Courts Union down to size, but they are rising to the challenge.

Ethiopia declares war on Somali militia By MOHAMED OLAD HASSAN, Associated Press Writer
Sun Dec 24, 11:01 PM ET



MOGADISHU, Somalia - Ethiopia sent fighter jets into Somalia and bombed several towns Sunday in a dramatic attack on Somalia's powerful Islamic movement, and Ethiopia's prime minister said his country had been "forced to enter a war."

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It was the first time Ethiopia acknowledged its troops were fighting in support of Somalia's U.N.-backed interim government even though witnesses had been reporting their presence for weeks in an escalating battle that threatens to engulf the Horn of Africa region.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi went on television to announce that his country was at war with the Islamic movement that wants to rule neighboring Somalia by the Quran.

"Our defense force has been forced to enter a war to defend (against) the attacks from extremists and anti-Ethiopian forces and to protect the sovereignty of the land," Meles said a few hours after his military attacked the Islamic militia with fighter jets and artillery.

No reliable casualty reports were immediately available.

Ethiopia, a largely Christian nation, supports Somalia's interim government, which has been losing ground to the Council of Islamic Courts for months.

"They are cowards," said Sheik Mohamoud Ibrahim Suley, an official with the Islamic movement, which controls most of southern Somalia. "They are afraid of the face-to-face war and resorted to airstrikes. I hope God will help us shoot down their planes."

Eritrea, a bitter rival of Ethiopia, is backing the Islamic militia, and experts fear the conflict could draw in the volatile Horn of Africa region, which lies close to the Saudi Arabian peninsula and has seen a rise in Islamic extremism. A recent U.N. report said 10 nations have been illegally supplying arms and equipment to both sides in Somalia.

People living along Somalia's coast have reported seeing hundreds of foreign Muslims entering the country in answer to calls from the Islamic militia to fight a holy war against Ethiopia.

The Islamic group's often severe interpretation of Islam raises memories of Afghanistan's Taliban regime, which was ousted by a U.S.-led campaign for harboring Osama bin Laden. The U.S. says four al-Qaida leaders blamed for the 1998 bombings of U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania have become leaders in Somalia's Islamic militia.

The Islamic movement drove secular Somali warlords supported by the U.S. out of the capital, Mogadishu, last summer and have seized most of the southern half of the country, which has not had an effective government since a longtime dictatorship was toppled in 1991.

The interim Somali administration, formed two years ago with U.N. help, been unable to exert any wide control and its influence is now confined to the area around the western city of Baidoa.

Several rounds of peace talks failed to yield any lasting results.

Major fighting broke out Tuesday night, but had tapered off before Sunday's battles began before dawn and continued for about 10 hours.

Ethiopian Information Minister Berhan Hailu said before Meles' announcement that Ethiopian soldiers were fighting alongside Somali government soldiers in Dinsoor, Belet Weyne, Bandiradley and Bur Haqaba.

Witnesses said a major road and an Islamic recruiting center were bombed in Belet Weyne, and 12 Ethiopian soldiers were reportedly captured nearby.

"We saw 12 blindfolded men and were told they were Ethiopian prisoners captured in the battle," said Abdi Fodere, a businessman in Belet Weyne.

Less serious fighting also was reported in Baidoa.

"I think they have met a resistance they have never dreamt of before," interim Somali President Abdullahi Yusuf said in brief remarks as the fighting began to die down at Baidoa.

Suley, the official with the Islamic movement, said his forces had destroyed four Ethiopian tanks outside the city.

As Sunday's fighting wore on, the Islamic militia began broadcasting patriotic songs in Mogadishu about Somalia's 1977 war with Ethiopia. The two countries have fought two wars over their disputed border in the past 45 years.

Meles has said his government has a legal and moral obligation to support Somalia's internationally recognized government. He also accuses the Islamic movement of backing ethnic Somali rebels fighting for independence from Ethiopia and has called such support an act of war.

Leaders of the Islamic militia have repeatedly said they want to incorporate ethnic Somalis living in eastern Ethiopia, northeastern Kenya and Djibouti into a Greater Somalia.

The fighting is hitting a country already devastated by conflict. One in five children dies before age 5 from a preventable disease, and the impoverished nation is struggling to recover from eastern Africa's worst flood season in 50 years.

Government officials and Islamic militiamen have said hundreds of people have been killed in the fighting since Tuesday, but the claims could not be independently confirmed. Aid groups put the death toll in the dozens.



Any thoughts on how long this war will last? Will it include Eritrea? Who will win? What will the effects be?

Personally I give the advantage to Eithiopia for now because they have the firepower. But in the end this will only continue Somailia's Civil War.




Scratch
12-25-2006, 04:32 PM
Now that is really confusing. I've just checked several (german) news sources, and nearly found just as many different reports of the event.
To me it becomes not even clear if Ethiopia declared war on the islamic courts, wich then responded by starting a holy war, or the other way round.
Some say the ethiopean airforce just attacked the airport at Mogadishu and another town.
Then there are some reports saying ethiopean forces entered the somali town where the (recogniced) government is now placed, but that would be denied by the somali and ethiopien government.
And there are also reports of heavy air and ground attacks on Somali cities and the fall of a islamic courts held town.
Some say there are firefights for some time now ...

Anyway, if there's no immidiate pressure from the outside, this might spread rather fast. If the islamic courts militia will be pulled back, I realy could imagine Eritrea to further support them. What in turn Ethiopea might see as an agression against it. ... You can imagine my scenario.
Unless there is a immidiate hold or Ethiopea achieves quiet fast victories, this will just spread and carry on for some time I think. To me it looks like Ethiopea has greater military resources.

Now I wonder what international impacts it will have. Who will support wich side. I'm thinking of the local part of NATO operation enduring freedom at the horn there. I also read that fighters from foreign countries are already on the way to Somalia to support the courts. Now NATO ships are in those waters to deny those transports of weapons, and perhaps fighters, too. So they might get involved in all that in some way.
Furthermore I remember reports saying after the Taliban were defeted in Afghanistan, some al-Qaeda elements moved to Somalia to reestablish training camps and such things. Probably Ethiopea could do a job for some other (western) nations there.

On 9th Dec. the UNSC approved a resolution to send african soldiers to Somalia. In that resolution those forces are tasked with protecting the government.

Time will show us where it might lead.

FuManChu
12-26-2006, 08:36 AM
The latest news is that the militias are being pushed back. Ethiopian aircraft have been bombing their positions.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/6209643.stm

Somalia's Islamist militia are reported to have withdrawn from frontlines after a sustained assault by government forces backed by Ethiopian troops.....

The town of Burhakaba, one of the Islamists' main bases, is reported to have fallen to forces loyal to Somalia's interim government.

Does anyone know here what the Ethiopians' capabilites are like? I know they get some support from the US, and I'm guessing the militias will find it tough going up against an entire country without air-support, tanks and the like. All I found is this (http://www.photius.com/countries/ethiopia/national_security/ethiopia_national_security_army.html) so far.

Scratch
12-26-2006, 11:03 AM
I could find a brief armed forces overview for Ethiopia here (http://www.globaldefence.net/projekt_streitkraefte_der_welt/afrika/aethiopien__ethiopia__178_26.html) (german source):

Armed Forces Overview 2006:
Actives: 162.500
Reserves: -

Army
Soldiers 160.000
Main Battle Tanks 350

Air Force
Soldiers 2.500
Combat Aircrafts 47
Transport Aircrafts 12
Helicopters 46


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_of_Ethiopia gives a more detailed list regarding types, but no numbers.

Finn McCool
12-26-2006, 03:36 PM
The Ethiopian Air Force has Mig-29s and and Su-27s, as well as older Sukhoi and Mig attack aircraft. The more advanced aircraft are probably being kept in reserve because of the threat of Eritrea's air force which also has Mig-29s and Su-27s. Ethiopia is probably using its MiG-23s, MiG-21s, Su-25s and Su-22s in the ground attack role.

I'll go out on a limb and predict that the Ethiopians reach Mogadishu but are slowed in urban fighting there.

isthvan
12-26-2006, 06:03 PM
The Ethiopian Air Force has Mig-29s and and Su-27s, as well as older Sukhoi and Mig attack aircraft. The more advanced aircraft are probably being kept in reserve because of the threat of Eritrea's air force which also has Mig-29s and Su-27s. Ethiopia is probably using its MiG-23s, MiG-21s, Su-25s and Su-22s in the ground attack role.

I'll go out on a limb and predict that the Ethiopians reach Mogadishu but are slowed in urban fighting there.

Main fighter aircraft in Ethiopian service are ~9 Su-27 but they aren't to useful in conflict whit Islamic courts. Ethiopians are probably using planes in similar way like in war whit Eritrea where they mostly used Mig-23BMs in ground attack role. They also purchased small number of Su-25s and I wouldn't be surprised if they are also used...
Also Ethiopian air force has ~15 MiG-21MF, ~20 SF.260TPs, ~20 Mi-24/35 and ~20 Mi-8...

Finn McCool
12-27-2006, 03:23 PM
Main fighter aircraft in Ethiopian service are ~9 Su-27 but they aren't to useful in conflict whit Islamic courts.

Obviously. The Courts don't have a single aircraft. The Su-27s are for deterrance against Eritirea. But the rest of Ethiopia's aircraft are, as you pointed out, useful in this conflict.

I'll go out on a limb and predict that the Ethiopians reach Mogadishu but are slowed in urban fighting there.

I read an AP story on Yahoo that the Ethiopians and allied Somalis are on the outskirts of Mogadishu. So it looks like one part of my prediction has come true. The story also said that the Islamic fighters were just melting away in front of the Ethiopians.

Does anyone think were going to see a Battle of Mogadishu? Will the Islamic Courts go out with a bang or a fizzle? Or will they survive?

FuManChu
12-27-2006, 04:02 PM
Does anyone think were going to see a Battle of Mogadishu? Will the Islamic Courts go out with a bang or a fizzle? Or will they survive?

According to the Somali ambassador to Ethiopia, Mogadishu is going to be sieged rather than assaulted. Of course this may change if the military commanders get restless - then again if they can establish a tight cordon they could just starve them out.

As to the Courts, it will depend where their key players are. If they're scattered around Ethiopia they could survive to fight a guerrilla campaign. On the other hand if they're stuck in a few surrounded settlements they may be screwed.

Scratch
12-28-2006, 07:19 AM
Looks like the UIC militias left Mogadishu without fighting and ethiopen and somali forces already entered the city. Hundresds of APCs are reported to be seen near Mogadishu.
Now I'm somewhat suprised how fast this is going. In the TV news if seen a short sequence were a UIC leader stated they may have underestimated the ethiopean forces and asked for foreign help now.
I believe the UIC is preparing a guerilla war now. But if the ethiopeans and somali allies are fast enough to establish stability and disarm the local population, they may have a chance avoiding suprise attacks in their backs.

FuManChu
12-28-2006, 12:35 PM
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/6214379.stm

Pro-government Somali troops have entered Mogadishu. The Courts seem to have fled to Kismayo. I wonder if they'll try and hold that, or just leg it and try to "disappear" around the country.

Finn McCool
12-28-2006, 03:18 PM
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/6214379.stm

Pro-government Somali troops have entered Mogadishu. The Courts seem to have fled to Kismayo. I wonder if they'll try and hold that, or just leg it and try to "disappear" around the country.

I read that they are preparing a last stand around Kismayo and Jiljib (or maybe it was jibjil.) Apparently the UIC's Supreme Leader is there and they are going door to door recruting boys as young as 12 to fight. They probably think that they can hold there because the Federal Government forces held at Baidoa in much the same manner.

The logical thing to do seems to be to melt into the bush. I think that's what will end up happening.

The 2nd part of my prediction was wrong. :( Its probably better that way.

Scratch
12-29-2006, 07:17 AM
Many of the UIC militia seem not to be realy loyal fighters but opportunists. They just try to make sure they are not recogniced as islamists and sell their guns. Prices are as low as they haven't been for a long time.
I now bilieve the UIC is not realy strong and hasn't ever been. The problem was that these people, who brought some sense of order, were still better than the old warlords. So many people just followed the UIC to avoid further hardship. Now they change sides again just to survive. And with the ethiopean troop support, the somali government wants to establish itself in Mogadishu (what it never before achieved) and make an end to the hostily fractions of the warlords. I hope they have the succes and ethiopea stays long enough to make that sure. I somewhat believe they will do it, because they saw were it leads when such chaos is raging in a country. A stable federal government will be somehing Ethiopea wants as well.

Finn McCool
12-29-2006, 11:18 AM
Many of the UIC militia seem not to be realy loyal fighters but opportunists. They just try to make sure they are not recogniced as islamists and sell their guns. Prices are as low as they haven't been for a long time.
I now bilieve the UIC is not realy strong and hasn't ever been. The problem was that these people, who brought some sense of order, were still better than the old warlords. So many people just followed the UIC to avoid further hardship. Now they change sides again just to survive. And with the ethiopean troop support, the somali government wants to establish itself in Mogadishu (what it never before achieved) and make an end to the hostily fractions of the warlords. I hope they have the succes and ethiopea stays long enough to make that sure. I somewhat believe they will do it, because they saw were it leads when such chaos is raging in a country. A stable federal government will be somehing Ethiopea wants as well.

Ethiopia has a history of rivalry with the Somails and really intervened to aviod the rise of a threatening power in Somalia. They fought several wars when Somalia had a central government. So even if the Ethiopians wanted to nation-build in Somalia they would probably fail given the history of dislike and rivalry between the Somali people and the Ethiopians.

crazyinsane105
01-01-2007, 09:17 PM
Seems like the capital of Somalia has fallen and the Islamic militias have now retreated to Southern Somalia where they are vowing to make a last stand. I don't think that's a very smart choice since the odds are against them: Ethiopia has total control of the air and has quite a few land assets against the Somalian defenders. If I were the Islamic militias, I would order them to melt into the civilian population and conduct a guerilla war against the Ethiopian troops.

Finn McCool
01-01-2007, 10:32 PM
The African Union is beginning discussion to send peacekeepers to Somalia. Uganda has 1000 troops ready to be sent to the country. The "last stand" that the Islamists were preparing to make has essentially ended, their forces melted away again. If the Islamist want to take to the bush they should do it soon, time is running out. What little support they have left will vanish and their forces grow smaller every day.

FuManChu
01-22-2007, 06:44 AM
Top Somali Islamist 'surrenders' (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/6286015.stm)

One of Somalia's Islamist leaders has given himself up to the Kenyan authorities, a Kenyan police source has told the BBC. Sheik Sharif Sheik Ahmed, seen as a moderate, surrendered in the north-eastern Kenyan border town of Wajir, the policeman said.

The US and the UN have urged the Somali government to seek reconciliation with moderate Islamists, such as Mr Ahmed. The Islamists were driven out of the capital, Mogadishu, last month. Ethiopian forces helped the government oust the Union of Islamic Courts, who had taken control of much of southern Somalia. But the government says some 3,500 Islamist fighters remain in Mogadishu.

It's important that moderates be drawn into any new administration - better than them joining hard-liners who may not want to co-operate.

Scratch
01-22-2007, 11:08 AM
It's important that moderates be drawn into any new administration - better than them joining hard-liners who may not want to co-operate.

It sure is, hopefully the central gov. can form up with members that are generally accepted and has the strength to overcome the local interests of warlords.

Finn McCool
01-23-2007, 06:59 PM
It sure is, hopefully the central gov. can form up with members that are generally accepted and has the strength to overcome the local interests of warlords.

Yes, it seems that the greatest obstacle to a peaceful Somalia is now the warlords (as usual).

What about the issue of Somaliland? It is essentially the Northern third of the country. Somaliland is (I think:confused: ) linguistically different from the rest of Somalia and has had its own de-facto government for years. While the rest of the country was in chaos and war it has been enjoying peace. Still quite poor though. I saw a thing about Somaliland on TV and some citizens as well as the "President" said they would fight to stay independent. The problem is no countries recognize them. I am of the opinion that the US should recognize them as a reward for their conscientous government, functioning democracy and the fact that they have been able to maintain order and peace, as well as the fact that the de facto government aided in the capture of a few Al-Qaeda operatives.

Pointblank
01-23-2007, 08:57 PM
Yes, it seems that the greatest obstacle to a peaceful Somalia is now the warlords (as usual).

What about the issue of Somaliland? It is essentially the Northern third of the country. Somaliland is (I think:confused: ) linguistically different from the rest of Somalia and has had its own de-facto government for years. While the rest of the country was in chaos and war it has been enjoying peace. Still quite poor though. I saw a thing about Somaliland on TV and some citizens as well as the "President" said they would fight to stay independent. The problem is no countries recognize them. I am of the opinion that the US should recognize them as a reward for their conscientous government, functioning democracy and the fact that they have been able to maintain order and peace, as well as the fact that the de facto government aided in the capture of a few Al-Qaeda operatives.

It all stems from when the former European colonies in Africa were divested; no effort was made by all former colonial powers to re-draw the borders so that they made sense, to account for geography, population, etc, as they left the borders of these new states in the exact arbitrary state they were. As such, the borders never made any sense, and caused weaknesses and conflict within the various new states. If they had taken the time and effort to re-draw the borders, we would see much less conflict than what we see today, and many of the wars fought in Africa are about borders, ethnicity, and resources.

Scratch
01-24-2007, 03:45 PM
It all stems from when the former European colonies in Africa were divested; no effort was made by all former colonial powers to re-draw the borders so that they made sense, to account for geography, population, etc, as they left the borders of these new states in the exact arbitrary state they were. As such, the borders never made any sense, and caused weaknesses and conflict within the various new states. If they had taken the time and effort to re-draw the borders, we would see much less conflict than what we see today, and many of the wars fought in Africa are about borders, ethnicity, and resources.

Sad but true. That Puntland seems to accept itself being part of Somalia, though they still want autonomy. But they [Puntland] argue with Somaliland over to regions, what seems to hinder recognition of Somaliland internationally. Besides Somalia and Puntland have enough to do becoming stable, let alone democratic. Wheras Somaliland made good advances in that regard and should therefore be credited (withrecogniced independence).