EU-China arms embargo won't be lifted anytime soon

[FuManChu]

Reuters report (http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060608/wl_nm/china_eu_dc)

Britain said on Wednesday it saw little prospect of the
European Union lifting its arms embargo on China in the near future.

Well that's not terribly surprising, is it? To be honest at this rate I think it might not be lifted this decade.

But rather than this turn into a political discussion, I was wondering what you thought China would want to get its hands on if the embargo was lifted tomorrow. I know that it can already get a fair number of things, but there are (obviously) things that are prohibited.

Don't worry about cost too much when answering.

P.S. Does anyone have specific details of what is specifically prohibited by the restrictions? I can't find a copy of its provisions and haven't read them recently.

[walter]

I was wondering what you thought China would want to get its hands on if the embargo was lifted tomorrow. I know that it can already get a fair number of things, but there are (obviously) things that are prohibited.


Well, the most obvious answer that comes to mind would be C4ISR systems/components with an emphasis on systems integration. Also everything avionics related esp. newest radar tech and other sensor types. I wouldn't expect China to purchase any complete systems like the Tiger attack helo or the Eurofighter--they are really interested in the subsystems and their integration into indigenous airframes etc.

[Roger604]

The Foreign Secretary's statement is pure poppeycock, pure show. Nobody can predict EU politics. Much less EU politics 10 years into the future.

I think the UK is probably the biggest hold out still keeping the embargo alive. That's why the UK Foreign Secretary is making the statement, and not some other country.

But with Blair out and Gordon Brown in, things may change. UK might want to come out of the US shadow. Merkel, too, may come under pressure from her fragile coalition if there is momentum to lift it.

In 10 years, China will have no use for European technology. Having it accelerates modernization, but it is not critical. So the EU defense industry are losing out big time from the embargo. The most important technology China can get from the EU right now is space related technology.

[tphuang]

What can China get from the Europeans?
- NH-90 for ASW
- helicopter subsystems and design idea (which it's already getting from Eurocopter)
- sonar and control systems for submarines and ships (which it's already getting from the French)
- engines for the submarines and ships (which it's already getting from the French and German)
- design ideas for submarine, not sure if they will actually be interested in something like Gotland or Scorpene or U-214
- space/satellite technology (which it's already getting from the Galileo project)
- EW/ECM for different platforms
- latest engines for airplanes and fighters (let's face it, they won't get the latest Rolls-Royce engine even if the embargo is lifted and frankly, Snecma is not at the same level as R&R)

As you can see, most of the stuff that it needs, it already has access to them. If this was lifted 10 years ago, it would've had huge effects, but right now, it's more of a political statement. In another 10 years, it would make no difference.

[FuManChu]

The Foreign Secretary's statement is pure poppeycock, pure show. Nobody can predict EU politics. Much less EU politics 10 years into the future.

Well I don't think China's a very good judge of it, given its overly-optimistic attitude last year. :rofl:

10 years, who knows. But 10 years is not the immediate future.

I think the UK is probably the biggest hold out still keeping the embargo alive. That's why the UK Foreign Secretary is making the statement, and not some other country.

It isn't just the UK. Plenty of other states opposed it even when things were looking like they would be lifted.

But with Blair out and Gordon Brown in, things may change. UK might want to come out of the US shadow. Merkel, too, may come under pressure from her fragile coalition if there is momentum to lift it.

1. Brown is not hostile to the US. Also UK defence business is closely related to the US. The US has already threatened to **** us over if we give stuff on the banned list to China. A couple of sales would be outweighed by what a loss of business and tech transfer from the States would do.

2. Who inside Merkel's coalition is going to press for it? And why are they going to press for it? Not out of desperation for money - the German economy's picking up.

Remember that Chirac'll be out next year. Seriously, don't dispute this, anyone who knows what's going on in France knows that he's off. Royal and Sarkozy are both for better ties with the US.

So both Chirac and Shroeder will be gone - the main proponents behind the lifting of the ban - replaced by more pro-US leaders. Who's going to be left to argue China's case? No one, that's who!

In 10 years, China will have no use for European technology. Having it accelerates modernization, but it is not critical. So the EU defense industry are losing out big time from the embargo.

10 years? Don't know about that. Besides China likes reverse-engineering stuff, so refusing to sell might allow European firms to go to the next level before the Chinese.

no need for foul lanuage. And stay on topic!!
bd popeye moderator

[FuManChu]

Just to get back on topic, I think some people are actually missing the point here. Let me ask my questions again.

1 . What is actually prohibited from being sold to China at the moment?
2. What would China like from that prohibited list?

So far only walter has actually tried to answer qn 2. Thanks, Walter.

I do know it's also about face, not just about tech.

[coolieno99]

In my opinion, the most important tactical technology is the AESA radar. Recently France loss Singapore aircraft sales opportunity to the U.S. because its Rafale fighter doesn't have AESA radar. Sweden is suppose to have AESA technology in development but currently none of its planes(Gripen) are equipped with it. Same with Britain. Supposely Russia and China are working together to tried to developed AESA techology on their own. This leaves just 2 countries having operational AESA radars, the U.S. and Japan. The U.S. has been installing AESA radars on its planes in the last couple years. Japan installed AESA radars on its plane(F-2) in the mid-1990's. Likewise the manufacturing tools to make the GaAs MMICs for AESA radars are sourced from U.S. and Japan. If China wish to seek external help in developing AESA radar, it must come from Japan, since the U.S. will never sell this kind of disruptive technology to China. Europe doesn't fit in the picture.:coffee:

[isthvan]

Well wile some people think that China has nothing to gain from Europe I believe that China would be more then happy if EU lifts arms embargo…

What could they buy?

Helicopters (EH101 and NH90 are better then any transport or ASW helicopter China has under development not to mention current situation), ship radars and air defenses (Aster 15 and Aster 30 SAM, vertical MICA, Crotale NG etc), C4i systems, UAV technology, submarine technology (sonar, quieting tech, propeller tech, AIP etc.), fighter radars, avionics, portable ATGM tech etc.

Basically they could only gain if embargo is lifted, European defense industry is still one of the best High tech equipment manufacturers and while some people like to underestimate Europe they are capable to produce any high tech weapon system you want…

[tphuang]

Just to get back on topic, I think some people are actually missing the point here. Let me ask my questions again.

1 . What is actually prohibited from being sold to China at the moment?
2. What would China like from that prohibited list?

So far only walter has actually tried to answer qn 2. Thanks, Walter.

I do know it's also about face, not just about tech.
look, I answered your question plenty. I gave a list of items that I think China would be interested from the Europeans. It just happens that they've already been getting more than half of those from the Europeans even with the embargo on. Now, if you don't have any respect for China's defense industry, that's your own problem.

Basically, it seems like everyone is pretty much listing the same things. That should answer your question.

[FuManChu]

look, I answered your question plenty. I gave a list of items that I think China would be interested from the Europeans.

Well your first post was slightly confusing because you listed things that, as you said in it, China can already get. If you had indicated which were prohibited it would have been more helpful. But still thanks for replying. And, yes, the posts following on from my last one have been very helpful. Thanks to everyone for their responses.

That said I was interested in the specific provisions of the embargo documents. If no one knows what they are then that's ok - I was just curious.

Now, if you don't have any respect for China's defense industry, that's your own problem.

Well that's a very strange statement to make. I haven't made a single comment on China's indigenous defence industry. I think you're being unnecessarily defensive.

[tphuang]

Well your first post was slightly confusing because you listed things that, as you said in it, China can already get. If you had indicated which were prohibited it would have been more helpful. But still thanks for replying. And, yes, the posts following on from my last one have been very helpful. Thanks to everyone for their responses.

That said I was interested in the specific provisions of the embargo documents. If no one knows what they are then that's ok - I was just curious.



Well that's a very strange statement to make. I haven't made a single comment on China's indigenous defence industry. I think you're being unnecessarily defensive.
I clearly listed which ones China has access to right now and which ones it will have access to if the embargo is lifted. And frankly, the difference is not overwhelming.

The provision under the embargo is that no company can export complete systems to China. However, the embargo is interpreted differently by different countries. The French tend to be the most liberal and the Brits actually exported quite a lot of stuff too. But then again, the Brits are under pressure from the Americans to not export anything advanced to China, so even if the embargo is lifted, it would not make that much diffference. The countries it would likely affect are the French and the Italians most likely.

[FuManChu]

I clearly listed which ones China has access to right now and which ones it will have access to if the embargo is lifted.

Oh, sorry I see that now. Apologies for the mixup and general failure to read properly. :)