Interesting, Pakistani AF to buy both F-16 and J-10

[Dongfeng]

I wonder what this means to the FC-1/JF-17 project?

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http://www.defencetalk.com/news/publish/article_005785.php

The Bush administration will formally ask the U.S. Congress to approve the sale of American-made F-16 fighter jets to Pakistan, Undersecretary of State Nick Burns said on April 27.

He made the announcement after talks with Pakistani Foreign Secretary Riaz Khan, who said the package would be scaled-down from an earlier request and include old as well as new aircraft.

After a devastating Oct. 8 earthquake, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf said he would postpone the purchase of F-16s -- built by Lockheed Martin Corp. -- while the government assessed how it would meet the costs of reconstruction and rehabilitation in devastated parts of Pakistani Kashmir and the North West Frontier Province.

Burns said he reassured Khan "we are committed to the sale of American F-16 aircraft to Pakistan and we intend to begin (formal) consultations with Congress shortly."

Other than saying it would be a "scaled down request (with) some new and some old" jets, Khan said he could provide no further information. The details of the package "keep getting revised," he told a news conference.

Earlier in the month, Pakistan’s cabinet gave its air force clearance to open negotiations to buy 36 Jian-10 fighter aircraft from China and 62 F-16s from the United States.

The shopping list included 36 modified versions of China’s Jian-10 aircraft, along with 26 F-16s of Type A and B, and 18 F-16s of the latest Block 50/52 C and D type models, with an option for 18 more, defense officials in Islamabad said at the time, confirming a report in the Business Recorder newspaper.

The newspaper, citing an official document, said the government also gave approval for purchase of Beyond Visual Range (BVR) missiles, targeting pods and joint direct attack munitions.

Since the earthquake, the international community has offered over $6 billion in aid and soft loans to help Pakistan recover from the disaster. Though no official figures have been released, the cost of the F-16s alone is expected to be around $2.5 billion.
The costs for the Jian-10 and the BVR missiles are also estimated to run into billions of dollars.

[Indianfighter]

I wonder what this means to the FC-1/JF-17 project?

Actually, there shall be no 'threat' to the JF-17. The JF-17 shall be the PAF's backbone, as it was the primary reason they helped fund $ 0.5 billion into it since the past decade.

Thus, Pakistan will definitely purchase the JF-17 in large numbers.

[Dongfeng]

Operating three types of fighters with similar roles and close performance would be a logistic nightmare. I have got a feeling that this might something to do with politics. Of course Paksitan wish to have F-16, but it would be waste of money to give up FC-1 now since a lot of money has already been invested. At the same time, Pakistan has also learned its lesson not to trust the U.S. 100% just in case the 1993 saction repeats again.

[maglomanic]

DongFeng,

Actually you have valid point but lemme try to explain.

F-16s are being acquired because of the urgent need for mature and viable aircraft that could fulfill the current and future requirements of PAF. The infrastructure is also there and training is not lacking either.Block 50/52 are being inducted as high end fighters until J-10 will either replace them or take their place once it become mature enough.

JF-17: is going to be the low to middle tier aircraft. What everyone misses when they talk about Jf-17 is the aircraft production capabilty this aircraft will bring to Pakistan. No problems with spareparts and probably commonality in weapon system and avionics with J-10 or atleast they will be dealing with the same company CAC for both planes. With more upgrades it will become better and better in future but it will still be the backbone like indianfighter said. It might however start taking over from A/Bs Mlued F-16s when in Air-2-Air role. Also Jf-17 will ensure replacement of F-7Ps,PGs,A-5s,Mirages(all types). So in theory Pakistan will be going from 4-5 types to just three types.

J-10 is a long term acquisation solution something that will lead to near fifth gen capabiltiy with more potential for upgrades and no threat of sanctions unlike Block 52/50.

[MIGleader]

Operating three types of fighters with similar roles and close performance would be a logistic nightmare. I have got a feeling that this might something to do with politics. Of course Paksitan wish to have F-16, but it would be waste of money to give up FC-1 now since a lot of money has already been invested. At the same time, Pakistan has also learned its lesson not to trust the U.S. 100% just in case the 1993 saction repeats again.

The numbers and prices set for these aircraft are not set in stone. Pakistan couls use the same kind of leverage india uses to drive down prices.

What im really interested in is what kind of j-10 pakistan will be purchasing. Im sure it will be similar to the first chinese test batch, but with what modifications? will the russians allow these planes to use al-31?

[crazyinsane105]

The numbers and prices set for these aircraft are not set in stone. Pakistan couls use the same kind of leverage india uses to drive down prices.

What im really interested in is what kind of j-10 pakistan will be purchasing. Im sure it will be similar to the first chinese test batch, but with what modifications? will the russians allow these planes to use al-31?

Very good point. Whenever Pakistan buys military equipment from China, it is always with modifications to suit the specific needs of the PAF. One can only imagine what type of modifications or upgrades Pakistan will want for the J-10's.

[DPRKUnderground]

Very good point. Whenever Pakistan buys military equipment from China, it is always with modifications to suit the specific needs of the PAF. One can only imagine what type of modifications or upgrades Pakistan will want for the J-10's.

Western Avionics? Most likely a European country as relations between the EU and China are warming up.

[maglomanic]

Western Avionics? Most likely a European country as relations between the EU and China are warming up.

That might be true but then given the progress China has made in the field of avionics i wouldn't doubt if it gets alot of Chinese content including a chinese AESA/PESA radar. It will be some time before J-10 makes it into PAF. SO i think it will be an improved version of J-10 (probably the one that flies this year???)

[Schumacher]

Latest news.

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/c82f265e-d6a3-11da-b64c-0000779e2340.html


Pakistan scales back F-16 purchases from US
By Farhan Bokhari in Islamabad
Published: April 28 2006 11:49 | Last updated: April 28 2006 11:49

f-16 fightersPakistan has scaled back by half its ambitious planned purchase of new fighter planes from the US to help pay for the relief costs of last year’s devastating earthquake.
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Foreign secretary Riaz Mohammad Khan announced on a visit to Washington that rather than buy new Lockheed Martin F-16 fighters, Pakistan would purchase “a mix” of old and new planes. The plan would be “far less ambitious”, he said without giving figures.

Western diplomats familiar with the US-Pakistan discussions said Pakistan was now likely to spend US$1.6bn-US$1.8bn on the F-16s, down from as much as U$3.5bn.

The original plan for at least 75 new F-16s had been cut to 18 new and 36 used planes, with an option for a further 23 fighters some time in the future, said one western diplomat.

The US last year lifted a 15-year-old ban on the export of F-16s to Pakistan, a key ally in its war on terror. “We are committed to the sale of American F-16 aircraft to Pakistan and we intend to begin [formal] consultations with Congress shortly,”said Nick Burns, US undersecretary of state, on Thursday.

October’s earthquake forced Pakistan to postpone the purchase as it sought more than US$5.2bn from donors to help with reconstruction costs.

“It is possible that the US urged Pakistan to be more realistic about how much money it could spend on this deal. The Bush administration must have thought Pakistan would loose its goodwill with other donors such as Europeans if it insisted on such a large spending on defence,” said the western diplomat.

Earlier this month, the Pakistani cabinet approved the purchase of 77 F-16s, although it was not clear if these were all new planes.

It also approved air force plans to buy an unspecified number of Jian-10 fighter planes from China.

Diplomats said on Friday they had no evidence of any change in plans over the J10 purchase, which was currently for up to 36 fighter planes in a deal worth up to US$1.5bn.

The Pakistani Air Force favours a purchase of fighter planes from a source other than the US because of concerns about a repeat of Washington’s past sanction on the F-16s which sharply widened the gap between the capability of the PAF and its closest rival, the Indian Air Force.

[DPRKUnderground]

So far this is what we know the PAF will look like in the future:

18-41 F-16C/D Block 52
68 F-16A/B MLU
32 J-10
150 JF-17

[Diving Falcon]

18-41 F-16C/D Block 52
68 F-16A/B MLU
32 J-10
150 JF-17
The number of F-16 Block-52s may rise to the originally sought 75 by 2015; the PAF would never buy a small number of new fighter planes without heavily expanding on the fleet. Right now the initial Block-52 order is 18 aircraft with an option for 18 more - in all likelihood the PAF will execute the option, and the price would be roughly 1.8bn USD. Due to logistical, financial and technical reasons the PAF will probably order another 36 or so Block-52s in 2009 - and their unit cost would be cheaper as the PAF would have already set up necessary infrastructure, training, etc.

Acquisition of the 26 ex-Peace Gate-III/IV aircraft will also go through; 2 of the 28 embargoed F-16s have already been delivered to the PAF, the remaining 26 will be bought by PAF. Then the 60 F-16 Block-15 and Block-15OCUs will go through the Mid-Life-Update, bringing them fairly close to Block-52 standard in regards to avionics. Infrastructure for up to 100 active F-16A/Bs was set up in PAF since the mid-1990s; it is likely another 40 used Block-5/10/15s will be bought by PAF - but probably under the U.S EDA Program.

Acquisition of J-10s will likely NOT take place before 2015; the PAF has to induct F-16, JF-17, Erieye, new Air Defence systems, re-tool its doctrines, enhance training, etc. All this would require not only funds (which is limiting) but also manpower; it is likely that only a committment (MoU) to buy J-10s will be signed by PAF, but not actually an order. However my belief is that the PAF will acquire as many J-10s as new-built F-16s - to keep political balance with U.S; ensuring that an embargo would not have devasting effects.

The F-7PG, Mirage-V and ROSE-I/II/III will be kept till 2017 due to the formers' relatively new airframe latters' capability to use advanced systems. The Mirage ROSE-I can use BVRAAMs, ROSE-II and III can use PGMs, Mirage V is the only aircraft in PAF that can use Excocet, while F-7PG is pretty new.

[tphuang]

you know, i keep hearing this stuff from pakistanis that more block 50s will be purchased. let's see them getting purchased first. As far as i can see, the cut in block 50s were basically replaced by the J-10 count. of course, there is the question of when the J-10s will be available for delivery and such, but that will be determined in negotiations between the 2 sides.

i seriously doubt they operate similar roles, it looks like j-10 will be the air superiority fighter, f-16 will be the multirole fighter and jf-17 will be the low-end intercept.

either way, good news for CAC all around.

[asaracen]

you know, i keep hearing this stuff from pakistanis that more block 50s will be purchased. let's see them getting purchased first. As far as i can see, the cut in block 50s were basically replaced by the J-10 count. of course, there is the question of when the J-10s will be available for delivery and such, but that will be determined in negotiations between the 2 sides.

i seriously doubt they operate similar roles, it looks like j-10 will be the air superiority fighter, f-16 will be the multirole fighter and jf-17 will be the low-end intercept.

either way, good news for CAC all around.

Totally concur with tphuang. It would be J-10 at the expence of F-16 all the way. 18+ perhaps 18 options should be the last order Pakistan places for any new US aircraft. F-16 is end of line, where as J-10 is just coming into its prime, and it will go a long way with PLAF and PAF. The safer and economical way forward for PAF should be to enter into further collaboration with China on future projects, after they have turned JF-17 into a technical and commercial success.

[Diving Falcon]

You have to look at it at the PAF's standpoint; it is not as rich as IAF or PLAAF where it can place an order for 18 or 36 planes without expanding the fleet. Infrastructure, training, and all that stuff take valuable time and effort - if 18 Block-52s are supposed to be a stop-gap, then why not order more F-16A/B MLUs and drop the entire Block-52 plan? Fact that PAF still shows interest in Block-52 contrasts its interest to expand the fleet to at least 75. PAF bought 24 Mirage IIIs in 1964 - only to expand the fleet to 96 by 1979; PAF got 40 F-16A/Bs in 1983-1986 - only to try to expand the fleet to 100 by 1997 (which did not happen of course).

No matter how you look at it, the money comes before all else in Pakistan! Only time that Pakistan got daring was under Benezair Bhutto in her attempt to finalize a deal for 32 Mirage 2000-5s valued some 3bn USD! Of course her government was disposed and deal was cancelled by the Pak National Security Council.

Whether PAF orders 18 or 36 now does not matter - because in all likelihood, one way or another the Block-52 fleet will jump to 70-80 by 2015. You also have to consider that the PAF cannot induct three fighter planes and an AWACS system at the time - there is not enough manpower. Induction of J-10 will likely NOT take place before 2012 - heavy numbers of JF-17 will be inducted, Erieye, as well as F-16 during that time.

The J-10 committment itself shows the PAF's interest in acquiring it and the Pak Gov't's way of telling the U.S that it has alternatives; however if the PAF openly says that it wants Block-52s and the Chinese Gov't has yet to officially and publically give Pakistan the export license for J-10 gives us an idea of how the next 5 years will unfold. J-10s were going to acquired back before the Kashmir Earthquake - in IDEAS 2004 PAF made it clear that J-10 and Gripen were Plus One options; the retired ACM made it clear again in July-2005.

[Indianfighter]

I have got a feeling that this might something to do with politics.
A political reason may be present for the decision by PAF to purchase F-16s from the US. It is known that the last assembly line(deemed for closure) for the F-16s and a few thousand jobs associated with it are dependent on the order by PAF.

It is still unclear as to why PAF requires F-16s, even though it shall get an equivalent or superior fighter jet with the J-10, and which is also cheaper.
As far as the A2G package of the J-10 is concerned, even though it is not as comprehensive for as compared to F-16, PAF can compensate for it by purchasing western A2G missiles besides having Chinese LGBs.

[SABRE]

Totally concur with tphuang. It would be J-10 at the expence of F-16 all the way. 18+ perhaps 18 options should be the last order Pakistan places for any new US aircraft. F-16 is end of line, where as J-10 is just coming into its prime, and it will go a long way with PLAF and PAF. The safer and economical way forward for PAF should be to enter into further collaboration with China on future projects, after they have turned JF-17 into a technical and commercial success.

PAF requires upto 100 F-16s. The number would be made up through brand new F-16s which may go from 18 to 36 C/D models while rest of the number will be made up with the 2nd hand ones. Even with the end of the production line the F-16s (around the world) would have good amount of juice in them to form a country's good defence.

The advantage of J-10 is that it is next door friendly neighbour's invention. Coming at cheaper and production line will continue on when F-16 production haults. With the end of F-16 production line would come the end of F-16 evolution, but J-10 would still have good number of time to evolve into much better fighter.

The thing now is that PAF officials dont want the airforce and country to waste their resources on any current generation fighters. Many of them are saying buying more of them wont be sensible since they will be taken over by next generation aircrafts in next 4 to 5 years. So Pakistan should save its resources and buy next generation (4th gen) fighters when time and money is good and the new 4th gen fighters become a bit cheap. Major interest seems to be in Euro-Fighter but the price is not right now. May be after producing countries and interested countries (like Saudi Arabia) induct them, the price will come down. But by than, China might have some thing in its pocket to divert Pakistani attention.

[PakTopGun]

The Pakistani Air Force has not purchased any major aircraft for quite some time due mostly to political reasons or sanctions. As for the diversity of its aircraft, over the next few years you'll see the emphasis placed on F-16's, F-10's and F-17's with a couple of AEW systems and the phasing out of older F-7, A-5, Mirage III and Mirage V's. In my opinion I think there will be less diversity over time and a concentration on 2-3 aircraft only. Pakistani 's have no shortage of manpower/trained individuals for they just need to conduct more recruitment drives to make up for any shortfalls as their are no shortage of potentially skilled aces in this country 150 million people. Furthermore, PAF has been flying a mixture of American, European and Chinese(Soviet) aircraft for quite some time and has the necessary infrastructure already in place, all that may needed is to expand or modify it.
In the end I would like to see Pakistan invest further in Chinese development programs(possible even going for a share of the J-10 program if possible) as well as with other foreign countries to further diversify its military procurement sources. :nono:

[MIGleader]

The advantage of J-10 is that it is next door friendly neighbour's invention. Coming at cheaper and production line will continue on when F-16 production haults. With the end of F-16 production line would come the end of F-16 evolution, but J-10 would still have good number of time to evolve into much better fighter.

Even when f-16 production halts, dozens of countries across the globe(From taiwan to greece) will still be opearting the aircraft. They would all need spares, maintanace, and mid-life upgrades. General dynamics wont miss out on the chance to make profits out of this demand, and will likely keep some lines open and keep a small r&d team in place.

[walter]

Even when f-16 production halts, dozens of countries across the globe(From taiwan to greece) will still be opearting the aircraft. They would all need spares, maintanace, and mid-life upgrades. General dynamics wont miss out on the chance to make profits out of this demand, and will likely keep some lines open and keep a small r&d team in place.

I agree with what you state here, but just a small correction: it would be Lockheed Martin which acquired the general dynamics-fort worth division in 1993. But absolutely, with thousands of F-16s in service worldwide, that is not business you just turn your back on. The last major version will be the Block 60, i am pretty sure, but a number of defense contractors worldwide will see business making minor add-on upgrades and keeping up with all the associated MRO.

[tphuang]

I have to set something straight here. The fact that J-10 is even getting exported is amazing. China is not looking to give Pakistan ToT on this thing. I've read a lot about China offering ToT easily and such, that is bs. When are people going to realize that J-10 is getting attention due to its performance and future rather than it being easier to get parts and cheaper and ToT?

[Black jack]

I have to set something straight here. The fact that J-10 is even getting exported is amazing. China is not looking to give Pakistan ToT on this thing. I've read a lot about China offering ToT easily and such, that is bs. When are people going to realize that J-10 is getting attention due to its performance and future rather than it being easier to get parts and cheaper and ToT?

I didn't expect China to hold back the J-10 from Pakistan and the recent revelations show that. However, I doubt anybody else will be getting it. Thats where the JF-17 comes in. In terms of TOT, I realise that China does give Pakistan ToT on many exports but it's no issue if they don't on the J-10 as i'm sure Pakistan realises the importance China attaches to it's "F-22".

[maglomanic]

I didn't expect China to hold back the J-10 from Pakistan and the recent revelations show that. However, I doubt anybody else will be getting it. Thats where the JF-17 comes in. In terms of TOT, I realise that China does give Pakistan ToT on many exports but it's no issue if they don't on the J-10 as i'm sure Pakistan realises the importance China attaches to it's "F-22".

Well it will be bad decision on Paksitan's part to get TOT on J-10.Pakistan already has it's plate full with JF-17. Why are we even discussing J-10 TOT here? I even don't see the first 36 to come to Pakistan so soon. The next stage will be acquiring more after intial batch becomes operational for year or two. Only then can Pakistan decide for TOT on spares and other parts if it suits it. We even don't know what version will PAF decide on. What if the next version is out by the time PAF wants to induct it??
So many Ifs. Give it few years and things will become more clear.

[Black jack]

Well it will be bad decision on Paksitan's part to get TOT on J-10.Pakistan already has it's plate full with JF-17. Why are we even discussing J-10 TOT here? I even don't see the first 36 to come to Pakistan so soon. The next stage will be acquiring more after intial batch becomes operational for year or two. Only then can Pakistan decide for TOT on spares and other parts if it suits it. We even don't know what version will PAF decide on. What if the next version is out by the time PAF wants to induct it??
So many Ifs. Give it few years and things will become more clear.

I mentioned ToT because the guy above me mentioned it, so it just kinda flowed! Your right either way, there are alot of things that need to be finalised and at the end of the day whatever version Pakistan gets, parts will definatly be available whether Pakistan produces them or gets them in.

[haris]

I think that China is our major ally,our friendship is time tested and i would like to have more cooperation between these two brotherly countries.Pakistan should buy her Defence equ from CHINA rather than any other country including america.Pakistani air force has announced to fulfil its needs by acquiring Jf-17 thunder to about 150 t0 200 in number.

[DPRKUnderground]

I think that China is our major ally,our friendship is time tested and i would like to have more cooperation between these two brotherly countries.Pakistan should buy her Defence equ from CHINA rather than any other country including america.Pakistani air force has announced to fulfil its needs by acquiring Jf-17 thunder to about 150 t0 200 in number.

That would be bad. We need more suppliers than China! And do you know what happened to Thailand when they go their frigates? It wouldn't be smart to just buy from China. The US and France has offered Pakistan some really nice stuff for the right price! Plus how about those French subs?

[MIGleader]

I have to set something straight here. The fact that J-10 is even getting exported is amazing. China is not looking to give Pakistan ToT on this thing. I've read a lot about China offering ToT easily and such, that is bs. When are people going to realize that J-10 is getting attention due to its performance and future rather than it being easier to get parts and cheaper and ToT?

So if the j-10 IS going to be exported, than what is it's export designation? We havnt heard of one yet, and that was because i assumed j-10 wasnt going to be sold for a while.

[SABRE]

So if the j-10 IS going to be exported, than what is it's export designation? We havnt heard of one yet, and that was because i assumed j-10 wasnt going to be sold for a while.

Its F-10. Although some foolish news agencies in Pak is calling it FC=10 and FC-20 but the government officials have refered to it as F-10. I dnt expect much from News Agencies, the are calling JF-17 "ThunderBolt" instead of just "Thunder"

[adeptitus]

IMO although the F-16 is a very good platform, Pakistani should look carefully at Venezuela's situation. Last time when Pakistani was under arms embargo, it was able to obtain some F-16 spares from Egypt with Uncle Sam looking the other way. But that might not be the case in the future, unless if Pakistan was willing to align with US interest for the long-run.

Given choice, I'd rather purchase planes from France. Unlike the US, France is willing to sell large piles of spares and munitions (i.e. Libya). The Mirage-2000 would've been an over-priced, but capable platform, but France wants to stop production and shift to Rafale, which is REALLY expensive. I donno if Pakistan's limited military budget could afford to feed a large fleet of Rafale's.

The Swedish Gripen is very cost-effective, but it has high % of technology and parts from US & UK, which would be subject to US embargos. Russia, I think they might not want to endanger their existing relations with India and sell to Pakistan. Pakistani military leadership prolly took all these factors into consideration and concluded that buying J-10 from the PRC is a "safe" choice.

[DPRKUnderground]

IMO although the F-16 is a very good platform, Pakistani should look carefully at Venezuela's situation. Last time when Pakistani was under arms embargo, it was able to obtain some F-16 spares from Egypt with Uncle Sam looking the other way. But that might not be the case in the future, unless if Pakistan was willing to align with US interest for the long-run.

Given choice, I'd rather purchase planes from France. Unlike the US, France is willing to sell large piles of spares and munitions (i.e. Libya). The Mirage-2000 would've been an over-priced, but capable platform, but France wants to stop production and shift to Rafale, which is REALLY expensive. I donno if Pakistan's limited military budget could afford to feed a large fleet of Rafale's.

The Swedish Gripen is very cost-effective, but it has high % of technology and parts from US & UK, which would be subject to US embargos. Russia, I think they might not want to endanger their existing relations with India and sell to Pakistan. Pakistani military leadership prolly took all these factors into consideration and concluded that buying J-10 from the PRC is a "safe" choice.

It's all in the hands of the Pakistani people. Venezuela elected Chavez and this is what they got. Palestine elected Hamas and look at them. As long as Pakistan is under the leadership of a moderate or liberal leader everything will be fine.

[Diving Falcon]

According to Janes;(link (http://img281.imageshack.us/img281/5933/pafjanes6ay.gif))

The PAF may buy its F-16 Block-52 in several batches;
1st phase would have 18 (or 36) F-16 Block-52s
2nd phase would 33 additional F-16 Block-52s

Appears Pakistan is taking a safer route in procuring those F-16s, to ensure that it does not have massive orders when breaking off from the U.S. If all goes well roughly 75-80 Block-52s and 60-110 F-16A/B MLU may by the end of 2015; by the end of 2019 approx 150-200 JF-17 and 60-75+ J-10 may also be in service?

[PakTopGun]

Pakistan has been dealing with the United States for quite some time. Since the 50's Korean War if I remember correctly. Unfortunately for the PAF, whenever Pakistan was involved in war it was the nation most affected by US inspired sanctions which nearly always crippled and limited the effectiveness of the PAF's equipment. So we see that after the '65 and ''71 war, Pakistan starting shifting away from solely US equipment and began diversifying by procuring aircraft from France and China as well. Though the desire for US equipment(which, lets face it, tends to be more advanced than any competitor country) always made Pakistan come back, the final nail was hammered in the 90's when after the Soviets left Afghanistan, the Americans again placed Pakistan under sanctions(Pressler, Brownback etc...) The positive outcome of all these sanctions is that it has made the armed forces, government and even people of Pakistan aware & more careful in their dealings with the Americans and other foreign companies vis-a-vis military contracts. Also, it has made the nation somewhat resilient and ingenious when it comes to servicing and maintaining equipment(Aircraft) in proper flyable condition despite lack of spare's from Key manufacturers. A whole sub-industry is now developing and growing as a result! :roll: