Spy flights

[DPRKPTboat]

Aerial espionage and the possible retaliation to it is a topic which particulary fascinates me. I know that the U.S. regulary sends ELINT aircraft to spy on China and North Korea in international airsrpace, and that both countries regulary send their jet fighters to intercept them. But have any U-2s been sent into Chinese or North Korean airspace recntly, or for that matter UAVs? If they did, would China or North Korea have anything to shoot a U-2 down? And what about Iran? I heard that a U-2 crashed on its way back from a mission there, and there's been some rumours going round on the internet that it was shot down. And Iran claims to have downed several UAVs. Can anyone verify this? I'm not aware of any Iranian SAMs that could bring down a U-2.

[bd popeye]

I've read the same rumors. No real facts yet though. I doubt if a U-2 was shot down over Iran. If so the "real" story would have leaked out from some "whistle blower"

Does the US spy by air on the PRC, N.Korea and Iran. No doubt. Do they use UAV's? Probaly..but if any were shot down believe you me you would have seen it on Tv by now. Espiecally in the case of Iran. Trust me if they shot down any US aircraft they would make it a world news event.

[Kampfwagen]

Everything I have seen so far about the U2 incident in Iran seems to be the typical biased American Imperialisim jargon. For the life of me, I could not find anything that did not mention 'American Imperialisim' etc. It isint that that iritates me, though I am an american. I just cant find anything that dosen't sound like some baseless theory from some wingnut conspiracy theorist, and nothing that is not so obviously biass.

Likely a malfunction in the airframe or pilot error was the cause of the crash, though the second is less likely. Though to say it is impossible it was shot down is not entirely truthful. It's remote, but possible. After all, the Iranians have the same missles the Soviets did back when they shot down Power's plane. Though I imagine the U2 has had several upgrade programs to assist it. The Iranians have not said they had shot down the plane and it dosent seem to have crashed in Iran, as no airplane crashes were reported to anyone.

As far as Iran's claims they shot down some UAV's, that seems more likely. However, Iran would probably claim they shot down Santa's Sleigh if they could. So it's dificult not to take it without a grain of salt. And if they did, it is unlikely the U.S would admit to it any time soon.

And keep in mind. Internet Rumors have a tendancy for not being entirely truthful.

North Korea is unlikely, but China could probably shoot down a U2. I dont know that much about missiles, but to quote Andrew Brooks of the International Institute of Strategic Studies:

"The Soviet Union could have hit it, or today's Russia or China, but we are talking now about looking at mujahedin, at terrorists, at Taliban, at insurgents. These sort of people could not produce the capability to knock it down,"

Keep in mind, he was saying his reply in regard to the possibility of Afghani or Iraqi insurgents knocking it out of the sky. He did not mention anything about Iran nor was the question posed to him.

Aparently, U2's have crashed in South Korea as well. So a technical error is definately likely.

Here are some links for you.

http://www.payvand.com/news/05/jun/1179.html

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/8313397/

http://www-personal.umich.edu/~bgoodsel/post911/2005/06/update-on-u2-story.htm

(WARNING: The last post is a blog and thus inheritly opinionated. It should be taken with a grain of salt. He compares the second Iraqi war to the invasion of Nanking for Chrissake.)

EDIT: Forgot to mention. I hope this helps you out.

[DPRKPTboat]

Thanks for the links. That last one was not only biased but lacked infromation! But thats O.K. I'm used to reading blogs like that.:o
The missile that shot down Powers' U-2 was an SA-2 Guideline. As far as I know, both North Korea and Iran posess these missiles. But the U-2 has advanced a lot since the 60s, and the latest variants can fly out of reach of the SA-2. You'd probably need the S-300 series missile to shoot them down now. I don't know if Iran has those, but I know North Korea certainly doesn't. China does, however, So I think it easily shoot down a U-2 if it wanted to.
As for Iran shooting down one, I think its highly unlikely if the SA-2 is the only high altitude missile it posseses. But it could make its own variants which could reach the plane. I know Iraq did that with a few of its SA-2s before it was invaded. It managed to fire one at a U-2, it narrowly missed, but the pilot did feel the vibrations from the warhead explosion. I don't see why Iran couldn't do that.
But I think its more likely that UAVs will be shot down. The Iranian air defence has been put on high alert to shoot down any suspicous objects detected on radar. UAVs are the easiest U.S. aircraft ot shoot down. A ten-year old Iraqi with an RPG could shoot one down for his birthday.

[MIGleader]

Aerial espionage and the possible retaliation to it is a topic which particulary fascinates me. I know that the U.S. regulary sends ELINT aircraft to spy on China and North Korea in international airsrpace, and that both countries regulary send their jet fighters to intercept them. But have any U-2s been sent into Chinese or North Korean airspace recntly, or for that matter UAVs? If they did, would China or North Korea have anything to shoot a U-2 down? And what about Iran? I heard that a U-2 crashed on its way back from a mission there, and there's been some rumours going round on the internet that it was shot down. And Iran claims to have downed several UAVs. Can anyone verify this? I'm not aware of any Iranian SAMs that could bring down a U-2.

Im the 60's, Taiwan and the CIA jointly sent lots of u-2 flights into China. China used it's hq-2s(a Chinese copy of the sa-2 which downed Powers) to shoot down at least five of these u-2s.

several AQM-34N Firebee's operated by SAC were shot down between 1964 and 68. The UAV was reverse engineered into the chiense Wuzhen 5.

[DPRKPTboat]

Heres the link about the Iraqi U-2 incident:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/1457672.stm

I know about the U-2s shot down over China in the 60s. That was one of their great exploits.

[Kampfwagen]

FIVE U2'S?!

That's the first time I have heard of that! Holy crap! Though I dont doubt it...er...well, actualy I do, nothing personal, but can you give any information?

Also, was looking around for SAM's on the internet, and found this.

http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/missile/row/sam-250.htm

Would this have the range to knock a U2 out of the sky?

[walter]

here's what BBC had to say about the most recent U-2 crash:


US spy plane crash in Gulf state
U-2 spy plane

A US spy plane has crashed while returning to its base in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), killing the pilot, US officials have said.

The U-2 plane had completed a mission in support of US forces in Afghanistan when the crash occurred on Tuesday.

The cause is unclear - but there is no indication that hostile fire was involved, Pentagon officials say.

Washington has an agreement with the UAE, allowing US forces to use some of the country's military facilities.

The U-2 is a high-altitude surveillance aircraft first developed in the Cold War and manned by a single pilot.

Regional sensitivities

Pentagon officials - speaking on condition of anonymity - told US media that the plane had come down as it was trying to land in the UAE.


The specific location is not releasable due to host nation sensitivities
US Air Force Capt David W Small

The military has not so far officially confirmed the location of the crash citing "host nation sensitivities".

The pilot's unit - the 380th Expeditionary Wing - is based at the Al-Dhafra air base, near Abu Dhabi.

The site of the crash has been secured and an investigation is underway.

The US military said the plane was returning from a mission in support of Enduring Freedom - codename for operations in Afghanistan.

The name of the pilot will not be released until next of kin are informed.

"The airmen of the 380th Expeditionary Wing mourn the loss of a true American hero in the service of his country," Col Darryl Burke, the wing's commander, said in a statement.

Cold War stalwart

The long, thin plane, with a wing-span of 100 feet (30.5m) is able to cruise at 90,000ft (27,430m) - more than 17 miles (27km) up - so high that the pilot has to wear a spacesuit.

Gary Powers in front of U-2 plane
U-2 pilot Gary Powers was famously shot down in 1960

The U-2 was an invaluable US surveillance tool during the Cold War, able to photograph Soviet military facilities and operating in great secrecy.

In 1960 a U-2 was shot down by a volley of Soviet surface-to-air missiles. The pilot, Gary Powers, ejected but was captured and held for two years on spying charges.

It was also a U-2 that took the photographs of Soviet missiles being put into Cuba in October 1962.

Defence experts say the original U-2 aircraft were highly unsafe and 80-90% of them eventually crashed or were shot down.

But later versions, the U-2R and U-2S, though 40% bigger, are much more reliable.

from this it appears no hostile fire was involved, and it defintiely was not downed over Iran or Afghanistan.

I also thought this was interesting:

Defence experts say the original U-2 aircraft were highly unsafe and 80-90% of them eventually crashed or were shot down.

judging from that I would not be surprised if China did down 5 of them in the 60's, although I hadn't until now heard of this claim.


But I think its more likely that UAVs will be shot down. The Iranian air defence has been put on high alert to shoot down any suspicous objects detected on radar. UAVs are the easiest U.S. aircraft ot shoot down. A ten-year old Iraqi with an RPG could shoot one down for his birthday.

I think some discrimination is necessary when making claims about how easy UAVs are to shoot down. UAV's range from very small (mini-UAVs, even micro-UAVs) to very large (Globalhawk) and everthing in between. Just off the top of my head:

the very small UAV's deployed by ground troops for surveillance could be shoot down by small arms fire since they are only operated at low altitudes and are slow but probably wouldn't show up an a radar and wouldn't be worth shooting down with SAMs.

medium sized/medium altitude UAV's, like the predator, could be shot down by SAMs and if someone is very lucky small arms fire. The Predator A and B models are not designed for stealth, but are none the less not huge blips on radar. The C model under development will be larger, have a jet engine and be designed with stealth in mind. There is no guarantee it will ever be fielded.

Globalhawk: large, high altitude, stealth, very long endurance. This would be very very difficult to shoot down (RPGs have no chance here :) )

Iran probably can shoot down most UAV's currently deployed that are known, with the possible exception of Globalhawk. However, they would just be letting the US mine valuable info over their airdefence systems everytime they try to target and down one. I actually heard somewhere that Iran is purposefully not turning on its airdefense systems just for this reason, although that could not be entirely true either if they want to remain proficient and prepared for a real air assault.

[netspider]

Yes, five U2 operated by ROC were shot down over mainland china in 60s.
This site lists at least three kills

http://www.blackbirds.net/u2/u2-timeline/u2tl60.html

9 Sep 1962
Chen Huai Sheng in U-2 6711, art.#378 (ROCAF) is shot down by SA-2 missile, 15 Km south of Nunchang. Sheng survived bailing out but died later in hospital (AC)

7 Jul 1964
U-2G #362 is shot down over Southern China, ROCAF Pilot: Lt. Col. "Terry" Lee Nan Ping is killed (AC)

10 Jan 1965
U-2 6691/#358 is shot down southwest of Beijing, PRC . Major "Jack" Chang broke both legs in the ejection. He was released in 1983 with Yei. (AC)

Two other kills can be found at http://www.danshistory.com/u2.shtml

1 November 1963 A Chinese Nationalist U-2C was shot down over Mainland China.

9 September 1967 An U-2C, operated by the ROC, over China.

The debris of one of U2 is on display in China Military Museum at Beijing.

FIVE U2'S?!

That's the first time I have heard of that! Holy crap! Though I dont doubt it...er...well, actualy I do, nothing personal, but can you give any information?

Also, was looking around for SAM's on the internet, and found this.

http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/missile/row/sam-250.htm

Would this have the range to knock a U2 out of the sky?

[DPRKPTboat]

Also, was looking around for SAM's on the internet, and found this.

http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/missile/row/sam-250.htm

Would this have the range to knock a U2 out of the sky?

A missile with a 250km range would be powerful enough to hit a U-2, but we don't know the altitude of this thing yet so its hard to say. And I haven't heard much about any current developments about this thing, so it could be little more than a propaganda tool. And if it is in service, i expect its in quite crude conditition - not unlike indigenously made Iraqi missiles under Saddam Hussein. I would find a U-2 shot down by an Iranian modified SA-2 (see my post on the Iraqi U-2 incident) more believable than a U-2 being shot down by an SA-250.

[DPRKPTboat]

This article was from yesturday. Apparently an American UAV was shot down over Iran while conducting surveillance of the nuclear facilities, although it is only Iran which is quoted to have confrimed that. Does anyone know if the U.S. confirmed this? I couldn't find an article on the BBC website. I wonder what they used to shoot it down. But it sounds quite small, unless thats just the impression of the text. I know Saddam Hussein used Iraqi fighters to shoot down UAVs surveying the no-fly zones. I wonder if the Iranians did the same, that is if it was a high altitude UAV that could not be reached by their SAMs or AAA.

http://www.defencetalk.com/news/publish/article_005532.php

[Aerodriver]

Picture of the U2 in the military museum, taken by me a couple of weeks ago. To the left is an American UAV also shot down.
[img=http://img136.imageshack.us/img136/5729/dsc020912fr.th.jpg] (http://img136.imageshack.us/my.php?image=dsc020912fr.jpg)

[DPRKPTboat]

Nice pic. The UAV is an AQM Firebee by the looks of it. And you can still see the ROCAF markings on that U-2. I'm surprised the Chinese or the Soviets didn't try to copy the U-2s they shot down - their scientists did study them, after all.
Is there any further news on that UAV that was brought down over Iran? The BBC still haven't reported it. And is there any information on what type of UAV it was? I would've thought it would be a predator.

[walter]

thanks for posting that picture, aerodriver.

As for the purported shootdown of a UAV by Iran, I would also guess it was a predator since there are so many in operation throughout Iraq and Afghanistan. If they managed to down a globalhawk then I think it may just have leaked by now from US military sources since that is an expensive and very capable system. But a lost predator--hardly worth mentioning.

[Finn McCool]

I think it is quite odd that countries go around shooting down each others plans all the time and you never hear about it.

I actually know a guy who conducted survellience flights on China during the 80s and 90s. Flew out of Subic Bay. (He might know popeye:) ) He wasn't in a U-2, but he was in a P-3 Orion. He tracked Chinese subs and surface vessels and Soviet vessels out of Camnh Ranh bay in Vietnam. On a lot of flights Chinese fighters as well as Soviet and Vietnamese fighters would fly right up alongside the Orion. Standard interception procedure. He often waved at them and they waved back. After a while, they would fly back to their base. If I remember correctly, I think he told me that he never really felt that the Chinese, Russian or Vietnamese pilots ever seemed really hostile toward him. They mostly seemed quite bored with the prospect of having to trail a slow moving American sub hunter for a long time.

[DPRKPTboat]

I think it is quite odd that countries go around shooting down each others plans all the time and you never hear about it.

I actually know a guy who conducted survellience flights on China during the 80s and 90s. Flew out of Subic Bay. (He might know popeye:) ) He wasn't in a U-2, but he was in a P-3 Orion. He tracked Chinese subs and surface vessels and Soviet vessels out of Camnh Ranh bay in Vietnam. On a lot of flights Chinese fighters as well as Soviet and Vietnamese fighters would fly right up alongside the Orion. Standard interception procedure. He often waved at them and they waved back. After a while, they would fly back to their base. If I remember correctly, I think he told me that he never really felt that the Chinese, Russian or Vietnamese pilots ever seemed really hostile toward him. They mostly seemed quite bored with the prospect of having to trail a slow moving American sub hunter for a long time.

Interesting. That still happens now, judging from the Hainan incident, but I think Chinese fighters are getting more agressive - they've been seen making violent passes across U.S. aircraft - probably this may have contributed to the crash. But those flights still haven't ended - not advisable if you want to build up economic ties with China.
Buy I do remember seeing one Chinese pilot putting up his e-mail message against the side of his cockpit for the Americans to see it.
Sometimes in such interceptions, the fighters radio or signal the spy plane to follow them. That was what those North Korean fighters did in 2003, during the nuclear standoff. That was probably becaues Kim-Jong-Il wanted a spyplane captured to use as a bargaining chip.
I wouldn't be surprised if similar incidents start to happen off the Iranian coast. I wonder if the U.S. sends P-3s there to. I expect they'll be met with aggression.