PLA inventory Tally

[Troika]

We have in SinoDefence and other sites a considerable amount of information on PLA, and some good serial counting, too. Would it be a good idea then to compile them into a inventory tally, later to be perhaps expanded into TOE?

[KYli]

We don't know enough to make any accurate estimate, and only few of members here have the expertise to do it. So unless they are willing to participate, we might make many errors.

[Troika]

Such a thing will perforce be incomplete, it is the attempt that will I think prove a useful reference and starting point.

[Totoro]

Well, you can start... we can try to help as much as we can. But rest assured there will be LOTS of areas where we will have to use very wide margins, like 100-200 units of this, 400-700 units of that, etc.
Whatcha wanna start with? ground, sea, air? :D

[Troika]

Well, let's start with air... China military aviation has a pretty good serial count, and we also know the most about the foreign acquisitions of air. I will have a look and compile.

[Totoro]

Okay, here's my try at airplanes (not helicopters or uavs) in the inventory of both PLAAF and PLAN. It is by no means complete or necessarily accurate list. I hope it will be updated with other members' help. If someone can more accurately separate some of my categories under specific numbers for specific variants of planes, and more precisely separate PLAAF from PLAN planes, please feel free to do so. * denotes the given figure must be corrected by some 20-50 units, give or take. ** denotes the same, but probably in the 5-10 units to give or take.


Current inventory, as of february 2006.

Su-30mkk - 76
Su-30mk2 - 24 (PLAN)
Su-27sk - 34
Su-27ubk - 42
J-11 - 100-120
J-10 - 70-100
J-8 D,H,F - 270 -400
J-8A, JZ8 - 20 - 50
J-7 B,C,D,E,G - 540-580 (Small number in PLAN, mostly for recc)
J-6, JZ6 - 650* (Small number in PLAN, mostly for recc)

JH-7A - 24-50 (PLAN)
JH-7 - 20-50 (PLAN)
Q-5 B,D,E,F - 330-600

H-6 A,C,D,E,F - 98-120 (around 20 in PLAN)

HZ-5 ,D - 50** (PLAN)

HY-6 - 17

KJ2000 - 3
Y-8 AEW - 2-4
Y-8J Skymaster - 6-8 (PLAN?)
Y-8 Maritime Patrol Ac. - 4 (PLAN?)
Tu-154 M/D surveillance & El.w. - 1-4
SH-5 - 4 (PLAN)

IL-76 - 12-14
Y-8 - 56-120
Y-7/An24/26 - 60-93
Y-5 - 210-300
B737-300 - 9
CRJ200BLR - 5
Tu-154M - 12-15 (grounded, to be sold/scrapped?)


To be delivered or under production:

IL-76 - 30
IL-78 - 8
Y-8 production ongoing. 21 delivered in 2005? To be made into various versions?
J-10 production ongoing. 24-50 delivered in 2005?
J-11 production probably ongoing. 20 delivered in 2005?
H-6 production ongoing 20-50 delivered in 2005?
JH-7A production ongoing - small quantity?
Q-5 production probably ongoing at very small rate to make up for attrition.

[MIGleader]

Hmmm...I think at least 5 su-30 mkks have crashed due to their heavy use in exercises. So that would be 71 Mkks. There are 12-18 jh-7s, and 19 jh-7As.

As for il-76s, sinodefenece claims 14. But mil.jschina claim 20. so id put it at 14-20.

[Gollevainen]

This thread actually makes too much sense, so i will move it to General military forum...

[MIGleader]

Alright, Ima do my best to compose a ship list.
most of it's by twos. Heres the PLAN in February 2006

Surface combatants
52c 2
52b 2
51c 1
52 2
956EM 1
956 2
54 2
53H3 10
53H2G 4
53H1G 6
53H2 3
53 20
51G 15

Submarines
Yuan 2
636 9
877 2
39G 6
39 1
35G 6
Everything older is retired, or should be

91 3(first two got retired)
92 1
93 1-3
94 1?

amphibious ships

72-III 7
72-II 11
72 7
Yuhai 10, and more building
Qiongsha 6

FACs

New FAC: 2211-2214? spotted
520T 5, with HK garrison
37-II 19

Fleet AUX

QIANDAOHU: 2
Nancang 1
really need more info here, anyone?

Future
One more 636 Kilo is still to be delivered by russia
one more 956em is to be delivered by russia
Two 51c(115 and 116) are being fitted.
Two 54A are being built
Some 5 39G1s are under construction or ave been launched at jingnan and Wuhan
More new FACs will be spotted
Varyag as carrier?

any corrections?

[adeptitus]

We have in SinoDefence and other sites a considerable amount of information on PLA, and some good serial counting, too. Would it be a good idea then to compile them into a inventory tally, later to be perhaps expanded into TOE?

I can recommend Globalsecurity's web site:
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/china/pla-inventory.htm
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/china/army-avn-equip.htm
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/china/navy.htm
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/china/plan-af-equip.htm
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/china/plaaf-equip.htm

It's far from perfect, but then PRC isn't exactly transparent in its military hardware inventory. =/

A very good site for PLAAF inventory/status:
http://china-military.org/index.htm

[Totoro]

Migleader, where are your ludas? Do you consider them to be the 'retired or if not they should be' category? 17 units built, they're still operational and still counted on by PLAN, at least on 52G version, anyway. I think it'd be a mistake not to count them in. Same thing for old mings and such. Also, i noticed you have just 9 kilos all in all. Didn't china have 4 kilos before the 8 new ones contract was signed?

I'm sorely lacking on trainer aircraft info...

Adeptitus, where on that http://china-military.org/index.htm site is the inventory list? i just couldn't find it... Or do you mean one has to go through each regiment page and just assume that each regiment has 24 planes?

[Totoro]

Let me go on with helicopters and trainer aircraft. Helicopters are, if not differently noted, a part of the army support force.

Mi8 - 30 (grounded?)
mi17 - 160 (24 more to be delivered)
Z6 - 70
Z8/SA321 - 24-36 (some 12 are in PLAN)
Z9 - 40
WZ9 - 30-40
Z11 - 40
S70c - 10-21
SA342l puma - 8
SA316 - 8
AS656/Z9c - 20 (PLAN)
Ka-28 - 7-8 (PLAN)


Trainer aircraft:

CJ6 - 100-1000 ???
JL8 - 20-40
JJ7 - 50-400 ???

[MIGleader]

Migleader, where are your ludas? Do you consider them to be the 'retired or if not they should be' category? 17 units built, they're still operational and still counted on by PLAN, at least on 52G version, anyway. I think it'd be a mistake not to count them in. Same thing for old mings and such. Also, i noticed you have just 9 kilos all in all. Didn't china have 4 kilos before the 8 new ones contract was signed?

I'm sorely lacking on trainer aircraft info...

Adeptitus, where on that http://china-military.org/index.htm site is the inventory list? i just couldn't find it... Or do you mean one has to go through each regiment page and just assume that each regiment has 24 planes?

Luda's? you do realize they are the 51Gs. I count 15 of them, most or all of which have been modernized. These ships still form the bulk of the Plan.

Ahh sry. The 877;s are the first two Kilos, but your right. China has 9 636's. I correct that.

[Totoro]

Sorry, i seem to be very absentminded today. I see you had already listed the ludas. I have looked at the link you've provided, there it says those 18 plus 19 of JH7 planes are both the basic JH7 variant, everything is listed under the JH7 info box, not JH7A one.

To Troika, please don't think that since i've made my version of PLAA inventory that you shouldn't post yours. The more, the better. Perhaps that way we can make it more accurate, interpolating each other's numbers.

[adeptitus]

Migleader, where are your ludas? Do you consider them to be the 'retired or if not they should be' category? 17 units built, they're still operational and still counted on by PLAN, at least on 52G version, anyway. I think it'd be a mistake not to count them in. Same thing for old mings and such. Also, i noticed you have just 9 kilos all in all. Didn't china have 4 kilos before the 8 new ones contract was signed?
I'm sorely lacking on trainer aircraft info...
Adeptitus, where on that http://china-military.org/index.htm site is the inventory list? i just couldn't find it... Or do you mean one has to go through each regiment page and just assume that each regiment has 24 planes?

A total of 17 Type 051 Luda ships were built from 1970 to 1991. According to Sinodefense web site, ship #160 "Guangzhou" has been decommissioned. The remaning Luda fleet is considered obsolete and will be gradually retired over the next decade.

One thing you have to consider is Navy ships aren't always active and out to sea. The ocean is rough on equipment and ships require a lot of maintenance. Just because there are 16 Luda's on PLAN's roster doesn't necessarily mean all of them are in active service status. Some might be in a drydock undergoing repairs and upgrades.

As for your question on the Kilo sub orders:
http://www.sinodefence.com/navy/sub/kilo.asp
The PLA Navy ordered two Project 877EKM (NATO codename: Kilo class) diesel-electric submarines from Russia in 1994 and two improved Project 636 submarines in 1996. These submarines are deployed in the PLA East Sea Fleet based at Zhoushan, Zhejiang. In 2002 the PLA Navy ordered an additional eight Project 636M submarines worth US$2 billion. By December 2005 the PLA Navy had already received seven of the eight submarines ordered. The last unit is scheduled to be delivered by mid-2006.

On trainer aircraft, you can look here and see what kind of trainers are in use:
http://china-military.org/units/plaaf_training.htm
Looks like they're still using Yak-18 (CJ-6) & MiG-19 (JJ-6) trainers for basic flight instruction, and K8's for advanced jet training. Here's some info on CJ-6:
http://www.warbirdalley.com/cj6.htm

As for the china-military.org site, yes, they do not provide totals. PLA is not transparent in its inventory and deployement, we can only speculate based on avail info and photos.

[Troika]

-Are anybody actually sure about the number of skymasters that had been fitted onto Y-8s? I know 6-8 systems were purchased, and that at least two had been fitted. But are all fitted?

-As somebody had noted, some Su-30mkk had crashed. I have heard that replacements were ordered, but not entirely sure number.

-I note the 30 Il-76, 8 Il-78. I have heard 34-4 also. Odd.

[tphuang]

depending all the source, some go with 30/8 split, some with 32/6 and some with 34/4. I think the first one makes the most sense. I would say China had 20 IL-76 before (huitong's site had serial numbers for 20) and probably 17 now.

KJ-2000 - 4 (we've only spotted 3, but the logical number is 4 here due to various reasons) of course, you can decrease the count for IL-76 then.
Y-8J AEW - 2+ (more probably 4 over all, China seems to be building these in groups of 4s)
Y-8 balance beam - 2+
Y-8 rotodome AWACS - 1

J-10 - 100+
24 JH-7
19 JH-7G
40 JH-7A?
ka-28 - 10 (4 ASW and 6 SAR I think?, again serial numbers for 10 of them)

type 22 - 30+ (we might as well stop counting, they are building this too fast)

[Troika]

depending all the source, some go with 30/8 split, some with 32/6 and some with 34/4. I think the first one makes the most sense. I would say China had 20 IL-76 before (huitong's site had serial numbers for 20) and probably 17 now.

KJ-2000 - 4 (we've only spotted 3, but the logical number is 4 here due to various reasons) of course, you can decrease the count for IL-76 then.
Y-8J AEW - 2+ (more probably 4 over all, China seems to be building these in groups of 4s)
Y-8 balance beam - 2+
Y-8 rotodome AWACS - 1

J-10 - 100+
24 JH-7
19 JH-7G
40 JH-7A?
ka-28 - 10 (4 ASW and 6 SAR I think?, again serial numbers for 10 of them)

type 22 - 30+ (we might as well stop counting, they are building this too fast)

I don't recall hearing the 23/6 split, personally I think it can go either way.. China needs large transport probably as much as it needs tankers.

The Y-8J AEW are the skymasters, so what are they doing with the other systems do you think? Reverse engineering and/or spares.

I have seen the prototype-painted picture of Y-8 rotodome... seems a little small for the KJC-2000 radar.

The JH-7G you refer to are the new naval versions, yes?

...Type 22? You refer to the FACs? There are 30+!?

[MIGleader]

I assumed all jh-7's were for naval aviation. I have not seen any in serivce with air force or army aviation. But what is the jh-7G exactly? A new model? any pictures of it?

[Troika]

I assumed all jh-7's were for naval aviation. I have not seen any in serivce with air force or army aviation. But what is the jh-7G exactly? A new model? any pictures of it?

From Chinese Military Aviation
The latest news indicated that PLAN are receiving at least 19 new JH-7s (02 Batch? serial # 82x6x) powered by additional second-hand Sprey MK202 turbofan engines supplied by Rolls-Royce, the first of which flew in September 2001 at XAC. These JH-7s feature upgraded avionics including the new JL-10A (with enhanced AA & AG modes and compatible with C-802K AShM) multi-mode PD radar replacing the old Type 232H.


I am thinking the JH-7Gs are these.

[tphuang]

type 22 FACs are building up so fast that most pla watchers can keep up. Before I left for China half month ago, they were showing 10 to 20 building or complete on top of the 4 originals. I'm sure there are more discovered by now. Again, I wouldn't even bother finding their current count. My guess is that there will eventually be 100 type 22s since there were around that many type 21s.
http://www.sinodefence.com/navy/littoral/huangfeng.asp

I got my jh-7 info from http://mil.jschina.com.cn/huitong/q-5_jh-7_h-6.htm
There appears to be one JH-7A plaaf regiment. JH-7G should be JH-7A but using the second hand spey engines. So, they are using the upgraded avionics, but still the old engine.

[Troika]

I see.

I don't think the number of proj. 22s will go that high. It is not one for one replacement for proj. 21s, there are the proj. 37-2s and the ones in Hong Kong which also partially make up for this. Personally I think China needs to branch out, one like the Molniya or the Skorpion, with comprehensive systems (there were rumours about buying Molniya, but that's didn't come to anything), and a lighter, long range craft firing something like C-701 to fight pirates in South China sea.

[MIGleader]

Only 19 37-II's were built. Production of the class actually stopped because of the introduction of the 22 class. There are only 5 Hong kong houjians, after which production appears to have stopped.The 22 is a strike FAC, which differs from houjian. The latter is a patrol ship.

[Troika]

Only 19 37-II's were built. Production of the class actually stopped because of the introduction of the 22 class. There are only 5 Hong kong houjians, after which production appears to have stopped.The 22 is a strike FAC, which differs from houjian. The latter is a patrol ship.

Yes, but any number is going to further reduce the one on one replacement. Regardless, this is inventory thread, for confirmed sightings and reasonably sure additions (ships' that's been laid down, foreign purchases confirmed, and so on), so we will leave the speculation elsewhere.

[Long Island Bob]

here's a pretty good estimate of Chinese warships
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/china/navy.htm

missiles
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/china/missile.htm

aircraft
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/china/aircraft.htm

ground forces
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/china/ground.htm

a bunch of other stuff
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/china/index.html

I'm going to guess that the site gives conservative estimates because
I recallreding news articles and doingsome additon and coming up with
"China will have 90 attack subs in its fleet. That's more than Hitler, Tojo or the current US total."
The site I linked indicates 61-74

[Troika]

here's a pretty good estimate of Chinese warships
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/china/navy.htm

missiles
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/china/missile.htm

aircraft
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/china/aircraft.htm

ground forces
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/china/ground.htm

a bunch of other stuff
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/china/index.html

I'm going to guess that the site gives conservative estimates because
I recallreding news articles and doingsome additon and coming up with
"China will have 90 attack subs in its fleet. That's more than Hitler, Tojo or the current US total."
The site I linked indicates 61-74

We have knowledge of Globalsecurity. It hasn't been updated for years, and some of the estimates are woefully wrong (they still listed the Molniya for Chinese PLAN, years after the deal came to nothing, to name an example on the generous side). But thankyou anyway.

[Gollevainen]

Hey all of you, Remaind me again, where this 100 J-10 (I remember that it was discussed in keypublishingforum) numbers came out?

the mainsite clearly indicates that the production of the first 50 pre production aircraft begun in 2002 and after that there has been delivered 50 odd Al-31F engines from russia. So how this has suddenly DOUPLED to hundred??

...oh yeas, somebody mentioned that He had descovered some "code" in chinese tactical markings that supposedly counted all the aircrafts in sinlge regiment and there is no way to NOT to assume that there would not be fifteen planes in one squardon if the magical code indicates that it is the 15th plane of the squardon...And completely ignoring the fact that eversince the tactical markings were take in use it has been the simpleyst way to fool obsevators about equipment tallyes.

And Also was mentioned the famous fact that if china has ordered 54 engines in 2002-2004 there is ALL reason to assume that china has purchased the same batch again in 2005-2006...Or is it??

You see its two different things to WANT that there is 100+ J-10's than there actually is that many....

[Troika]

Hey all of you, Remaind me again, where this 100 J-10 (I remember that it was discussed in keypublishingforum) numbers came out?

the mainsite clearly indicates that the production of the first 50 pre production aircraft begun in 2002 and after that there has been delivered 50 odd Al-31F engines from russia. So how this has suddenly DOUPLED to hundred??

...oh yeas, somebody mentioned that He had descovered some "code" in chinese tactical markings that supposedly counted all the aircrafts in sinlge regiment and there is no way to NOT to assume that there would not be fifteen planes in one squardon if the magical code indicates that it is the 15th plane of the squardon...And completely ignoring the fact that eversince the tactical markings were take in use it has been the simpleyst way to fool obsevators about equipment tallyes.

And Also was mentioned the famous fact that if china has ordered 54 engines in 2002-2004 there is ALL reason to assume that china has purchased the same batch again in 2005-2006...Or is it??

You see its two different things to WANT that there is 100+ J-10's than there actually is that many....

There were two different figures given for J-10 - Totoro's 70-100 and tphuang's 100+. There were rumours of a batch of 100 AL-31F in 2005, details strong suggestion but no confirmation... taking that into account the low end of 70 planes seems possible, though 100+ is out there in my opinion yes.

[Gollevainen]

well possible and optium are luxury of some other things, not when listing PLA's inventory. Only facts are to be included so there isent any other proper answer that 50+ J-10.

But offcourse that doesent look good trough red and gold eye-glasess so we propaply hear some more...

[MIGleader]

Hey all of you, Remaind me again, where this 100 J-10 (I remember that it was discussed in keypublishingforum) numbers came out?

China ordered a second batch of engines, i forget hom many. China can make 24-36 j-10s a year, so the first 54 were delivered soemtime in 2004. Thne production went on through the rest of 2004, 2005, and some of 2006 to make 100.

[Troika]

well possible and optium are luxury of some other things, not when listing PLA's inventory. Only facts are to be included so there isent any other proper answer that 50+ J-10.

But offcourse that doesent look good trough red and gold eye-glasess so we propaply hear some more...

Quite. ACtually I am quite interested to hear some more on these counting systems and so on. I try to follow Russian sales to China, and engines is one of the more difficult items to track hold of. The rumoured 100 Al-31F deal was of course in 2005. Making it difficult to manufacture since then a large batch, since I am not even sure delivery status has finished. The best I can find indicates that by the end of April sixty units was delivered... obviously not close to enough time to assemble many planes.

[Gollevainen]

China ordered a second batch of engines, i forget hom many. China can make 24-36 j-10s a year, so the first 54 were delivered soemtime in 2004. Thne production went on through the rest of 2004, 2005, and some of 2006 to make 100.

According to what???? Thats what Im saying, You cannot assume anything by the possiple production rates and that when some guy in internet know that his mother's niece's boyfriend had heard from the company's horsemens that china is bying 1,000 Al-21 from russia and they are almoust like AL-31F so IT MUST MEAN THAT THERE IS AT LEAST 1,000 J-10 in service!!!!!:mad:

If china has only 54 jet engines it doesent mean that they automaticly install them all to service fighters. There needs to be maintance reserve and spare engines to keep the service aircraft in operational level. Im not sure what the ration should be, but defianelty not 1:1

[Totoro]

Dude, please chill. Why get angry over such a matter? Why yell? Getting more on topic - no one knows for sure, we all know that. It's just how everything in the military world goes - especially so with china. So we're left with guessing based on what has been reported on the newsites. Which is that, after the initial prototype phase, for which we do not know how many engines there were and how many preproduction planes were made, 54 engines were purchased in 2002 and all delivered by 2004. Then in august 2005 it was announced another deal for 100 engines was made. Some claim delivery started by the end of the year, of course no one can confirm or deny that. I would assume the rate of delivery must be faster than with the first batch of engines, simply cause its expensive to maintain a production line for CAC with just a trickle of airplanes being made.

In the end? Who knows? Maybe china has just 10 j-10s, and they repaint the numbers on the all the time and just send them around. Maybe ws-10 has been adopted for use on j-10 and is already being installed in new planes and theres 150 of them already. Maybe we are both just dreaming things while actually being part of the evil matrix world. I certainly won't lose any sleep over the number of planes china might or might not have. While my initial projection, at the time i made it, should've perhaps read 50-90 planes i am guessing (like anyone else here) that today's number could very well be in the 70-100 range, depending on the number of engines delivered and the number of engines existing before the 2002 engine order.

As for number of extra engines, greece for example considered an order for 40 f-16 at one time (30 they bought in the end, 10 left as an option) and that deal had lots of details announced, among them 6 extra engines. that's 46 engines total for 40 planes. If we assume russian engines need 50% more extra spares that's 44 planes in the initial production phase that lasted for 2.5-3 years now. It is again then assumed that production had to ramp up and that chinese had assurances that next batch of engines would come faster (with enough money anything is possible). further 100 engines would be enough for additional 82 planes.

So, lowest possible number is probably around 40-45 production planes. I guess some of us here don't think that's likeley, hence the 70-100 figure. I guess its my fault not to add the lowest figure into account but just give the probable and max number. So once to end it for all - 40 planes minimum number, 100 planes maximum, likely number of planes - 70. Do i have hard proof for any of this? Absolutely not. :)

EDIT: I hate making this into one long post but since forum rules state no double posting... If true, the post on CDF about news item that salyut issued at berlin air show over the engines for china sheds some new light on the possible number of planes. It states that 60 engines have been delivered while remaining 40 being ready by june with china probably approving them by july. So we have some 8 months during which 60 engines have been delivered, obviously in few large batches, starting possibly as early as september, with engines russians had on stock. lets assume october for confirmation. It would allow for some 8-9 planes per month since then - obviously way more than china can produce, but it was stated some were versions fit for j-11 anyway. So i'll revise my estimate once again. If the pre 2002 batch of engines for preproduction planes was minimal, just for prototypes and such then CAC could have made 45 production planes by october, and since then a larger scale production beginning from november with some 70 production planes done by end of april 2006. Of course, that doesnt equal to 70 planes in plaaf service.

[Gollevainen]

Well im angry, simply becouse in the past two years i have spended whit internet Chinese military "circles", I have came too much cross this sort of thinking. Back in then i came cross whit all sort of "news" or "reports" that made thing wheter my good old realible sources were complete nonsense. it took while before i become to understant that majority of people that post in this and past sinodefence forum thinks things bit differently. To them if things can be that way, it could therefore be this way and that leads it being something else. And thats only the basis of where people beguns to speculate things even futher away. Its all about seeing the positive prospects and obtions only totally ignoring the negative side and possiple faults in the bigger scale. partially that why i orginally accepted to be come a mod, to clear SDF out of this sort of arguments and make us to be the first really objective chinese military forum.

Im not saying that this is some sort of chinese national character. its more of age and nationalism related proplem. Many chinese thinks otherwise and many westeners things exactly the same way.

So you can imagine how it pisses me off. I have learned to avoid certain issues simply becouse i dont want to battle the source of the 'opponents' claims but of the matter itself. Only this J-10 service status issue have imposed so planely some of the biggest faults of this certain way of thinking that I just couldnt help myself.

You (Totoro) where the first to say (in this thread) what i want everyone to do when making any claims. Altouhg my number is still lover than yours, you made good point on wheter to base it and said that it's only assumptions. Previously people just stated the numbers as a fact (which led me to freak out).

[MIGleader]

According to what???? Thats what Im saying, You cannot assume anything by the possiple production rates and that when some guy in internet know that his mother's niece's boyfriend had heard from the company's horsemens that china is bying 1,000 Al-21 from russia and they are almoust like AL-31F so IT MUST MEAN THAT THERE IS AT LEAST 1,000 J-10 in service!!!!!:mad:

If china has only 54 jet engines it doesent mean that they automaticly install them all to service fighters. There needs to be maintance reserve and spare engines to keep the service aircraft in operational level. Im not sure what the ration should be, but defianelty not 1:1

China has extensive contracts for spares parts and maintenance for of the al-31, so spares arnt essential.

There have reportings of china ordering more engines, supposiedly for su-27s and j-11s. BUT WE HAVNT SEEN MANY NEW SU-27s or J-11s. What does that imply?

And chill, and stop blaming it on nationalism. We have a right to be proud, and saying china has 100 j-10s is not such a redioulous claim. you yourself are making assumptions that our surrent methods of prediction are inaccurate.

[Gollevainen]

There have reportings of china ordering more engines, supposiedly for su-27s and j-11s. BUT WE HAVNT SEEN MANY NEW SU-27s or J-11s. What does that imply?

Imply...let's see it could imply that the gods of high-pass turbofan engines have been angry and are not allowing chinese to install them to any planes unless proper sacrifices are beeing made. We cannot base any fact on implying or assumptions....things based on those are called assumptions or speculations.

But Im not making assumptions of your methods are innacurate, im simply saying the fact that they mostly are. Everytime something needs words like "it could be" or "it migth be" you are on wrong tracs if you tsill come to the conclusion that is the possiple maxium. In all cases like J-10 inventory, one must see the other possipilityes as well and not simply declear that there are 100+ in service, but that 100 is the maxium ammount that can be, and around 50 is the minium. Objectivines, objectivines...like i said in my post to Totoro, who by the way made a text book example of how to base one clames. Tell all the source and clearly remark the points that are assumptions or otherwise speculative matters

Oh, And I blame nationalism becouse otherwise I would have to blame you kids personally and that wouldnt be nice;) ...and anyway as you say it yourself, you are beeing proud of J-10, aka connecting j-10 to your nationalist feelings. Anyone taking part of international defence discussion knows that its a recepy for disaster.

[MIGleader]

alright then, ask typhuang, our educated, non-nationalistic moderator why he thinks china has 100 j-10s. He will be able to explain it to you better than I can.

The original 54 were made to exactly one standard, yet we see some j-10s with different landing wheel doors than others. Clearly, a second batch must have been built.

[Troika]

I really should have done this right at the beginning. But I didn't. I even got carried away myself. But here we are.

A Tally means a count. As in confirmed sightings, official figures, serial counts. Failing all that, and only if you have good reason to do so, estimates based on regimental counts, and each figure must be clearly labelled and given origin. Also may be included is confirmed sightings of ships in construction (clearly marked as such) and foreign deals finalised pending delivery (also clearly marked as such).

NO speculation. That's for some other thread.

And Gollevainen, while I understand your irritation, please do not fire blindly at everybody at this thread... I for instance have no earthly reason to be nationalistic... about China.

[adeptitus]

Last year, the owner of china-military.org wanted to collect donations to pay for a satellite photo of Mengzi AFB and PLAAF 44th Division to see how many J-10's there were. But unfortunately I don't think he got around to it.

http://www.china-military.org/units/chengdu/44div/44div.htm

If we were to take F-16 production history as an example, the first F-16A block 1 had production run of only 94 aircraft, then 197 for block 5, 312 for block 10, 983 for block 15, and so on.

The J-10 toay is prolly still in the "Block 1" or "Block 5" equivalent stage where only 100-200 are made for service & evaluation. As the platform receive further upgrades and become more mature, we'll prolly see larger batches.

[ChinaWall65]

Oh, And I blame nationalism becouse otherwise I would have to blame you kids personally and that wouldnt be nice;) ...and anyway as you say it yourself, you are beeing proud of J-10, aka connecting j-10 to your nationalist feelings. Anyone taking part of international defence discussion knows that its a recepy for disaster.

nationalism is a good thing, i don't think anyone here is ashamed of their own country

Imply...let's see it could imply that the gods of high-pass turbofan engines have been angry and are not allowing chinese to install them to any planes unless proper sacrifices are beeing made. We cannot base any fact on implying or assumptions....things based on those are called assumptions or speculations.


I think MIGleader's statements is more like deductive reasoning rather than speculation since there is no greater generality than MIGleader's premises that China is ordering more engines while China is not building any more Su27 so that leaves the engines to be fitted on more J10s

[Gollevainen]

nationalism (in political field; extreme rigth) the worst crime that anyone could conmit. Its root of all real evil of today. Its pride-over ones country and that always lead into squables whit other nations. In reality it means genosides and wars, in internet it means flamewars and trolling.

In here we got to live together and is too relevant that pride is the biggest blinder that lead into figths. Some sort of minimal patriotism is another thing and beeing not shame on ones own country but nationalism is political "ism" that feeds such polical ideologies like Facism and Nazism that all feeds heavilly on national pride.

So what I want to hear and read is objectiveness and lately this thread has showed only subjective wievs.

And PS. as a moderator I shoot to everyone becouse I dont want to pick on to each members individually.

[MIGleader]

Oh, And I blame nationalism becouse otherwise I would have to blame you kids personally and that wouldnt be nice ...and anyway as you say it yourself, you are beeing proud of J-10, aka connecting j-10 to your nationalist feelings. Anyone taking part of international defence discussion knows that its a recepy for disaster.

So your saying I cant be proud of the j-10 or chinese weapons? Its not like you arnt nationalistic. I bet if i created a china versus finland thread, you would claim finland is superior. Theres not a single person on this board whose views are 100% objective, which is qhy we have arguments.

[Gollevainen]

Ok, do you want warning or not? Dont deliberatly seek confrontation about things that are commonly agreed long time ago. You can be proud, but dont megle your pride into the discussion. Anyone can be proud of their country but usually it takes age and inteligent to retain objectivines considering the pros and cons of differnet equipment. Sofar I have met only few members that can succeed in that.

Now If any more whining over this matter, I will remaind you all about some basic forum hierarcy issues of WHO TELLS WHAT IS FORBIDDEN AND WHO WILL OBEY!!!!!:nono: :nono: :mad:

[The_Zergling]

So your saying I cant be proud of the j-10 or chinese weapons? Its not like you arnt nationalistic. I bet if i created a china versus finland thread, you would claim finland is superior. Theres not a single person on this board whose views are 100% objective, which is qhy we have arguments.

What you're talking about isn't nationalism. You have every right to be proud of China's technological achievements, however it is not the same thing as nationalism, nor is it a justification for it.

Blind nationalism is basically proclaiming that your country is the best in the world because you were born in it. Like any -isms, it proclaims the importance of country above other things. I feel that people 100 years from now will look back on us and view nationalism like we view other "-isms", like Racism.

It opens the door to stuff you wouldn't have thought of doing in the first place (Like invading another country), because you believe that you are better than someone else. Is it the reason many wars occur? No. However, as Gollevainen rightly noted, it makes it a hell of a lot easier.

I believe the word that you're looking for is Patriotism. I don't believe that you are saying you think you have a right to blindly say that China is a country to be proud of because of its ability to kill people. I think you're trying to say that you have a right to be proud of your country (for whatever reasons you want) and you want to be able to express that pride where you want it. Maybe I'm nitpicking your words here but there is definitely a big difference between Nationalism and Patriotism, and there is a reason why we aren't a fan of the former especially on a board where no country-bashing or overly political discourse is allowed.

That said, try to figure out where the top mod here is coming from before... unpleasant consequences occur. I have the feeling that he's starting to lose his famous kind streak.

[MIGleader]

I see what you mean. however, if gollevainen does not believe my claim of 100 j-10s, he should refute it with his own argument, rather than trying to blame me of having nationalistic feelings. G, we were having a military debate. So please dont turn it into a matter of behaviour. There is nothing wrong with disagreeing with a moderator over a military issue

now, i will continue my proof:
Once again, I will cite a sinodefence article

The report confirmed the earlier speculation that China had received 54 Salyut-made AL-31FP turbofan engines for a test fleet of J-10s between 2002 and 2004. Later Salyut, through Rosoboroneksport, successfully negotiated the sale of the engine for mass production of the fighter aircraft.

This means salyut has a contract to continue delievering the engine beyond the orginal 54, so china can keep producing j-10.

[SampanViking]

There is a famous question from, I think either Roosevelt or Hoover, "why are Acedemic Arguments fought so bitterly? Ans: Because the stakes are so small"

If we ever had a candidate for this, the above would have to be a contender.

All we can tell from an order like this is that a number of engines have been ordered, the why is a very different matter.

If you stop thinking of them as Weapons systems and start thinking about them as Machine Parts, other options easily spring to mind:

An upgrade on the previous design?

A design fault in the original batch (they will hardly put out a public product recall will they?)

Power plants for experimental varients or designs?

Practice units for PLAAF Engineering school?

The list can go on and on

Now come on ladies, calm down, relax, kiss and make up;)

[Gollevainen]

yeas sampan, you said propaply clearer what i was saying.

Gollevainen said only, and only that you cannot provide assumptions or speculations as facts and that there isent any clear facts that 100+ J-10 exist. Only educated quesses that mostly bases on assumtions that are just too optimistic. And that optimism is mostly due nationalistic view over the matters that usually ignores all the negative "ifs" and doupts.

My own opinion is the one that anyone could possiply give in this situation, more than 50 but less than 100 J-10 is finished production line. Of how many of them is operational frontline service, I cannot say, I have no experience over what factors determs aircrfts operationaly in PLAAF. I think none of us can say anything clear over it.

Now that said, enough of this smart assness. Gollevainen uses now its divine position and says the last word of this issue. Now the conversation should continue over its orginal topic and if any offtopic post will appear, I close the thread and warn somebody! Understood?

[ChinaWall65]

There is a famous question from, I think either Roosevelt or Hoover, "why are Acedemic Arguments fought so bitterly? Ans: Because the stakes are so small"

If we ever had a candidate for this, the above would have to be a contender.

All we can tell from an order like this is that a number of engines have been ordered, the why is a very different matter.

If you stop thinking of them as Weapons systems and start thinking about them as Machine Parts, other options easily spring to mind:

An upgrade on the previous design?

A design fault in the original batch (they will hardly put out a public product recall will they?)

Power plants for experimental varients or designs?

Practice units for PLAAF Engineering school?

The list can go on and on

Now come on ladies, calm down, relax, kiss and make up;)

None of the questions you asked requires as many engines cited by MIGleader since they are in mass production.

Later Salyut, through Rosoboroneksport, successfully negotiated the sale of the engine for mass production of the fighter aircraft.

Mass production eliminates recall, experimental design, engineering school, and anything on your list...SampanViking, if you can name one plausible scenario on what else the PLAAF can do with a lot of newly built engines, then i will reconsider.

Gollevainen, I'm getting the feeling that you don't want China to have so many j10s;)

[Gollevainen]

Why would i think it that way? If i would have to decide, china would have over 1000 J-10, becouse thats what they need...Im only too old for self deception. Thats why I want to think the best realible figure, not best 'what if' figure, which the 100 example crearly presents.

[MIGleader]

100 j-10 is not the most optimistic number. Assuming that CAC completed delivery of the original 54 in early 2004, and pumps j-10s at 3 a month, China could theoretically have as many as 130-140 j-10s right now. Compared to this, 100 is not so unreasonable. But i know the conditions I give are less realistic, so I go with 100.

Now, early J-10s were deployed to CFTTC for training, but they are gone by now.

experimental prototypes that we do not know of may exist, but htese might be using ws-10a and not al-31.

[tphuang]

well, let's state the obivous first:
1. China is never going to admit how many planes of each type it has (whether it's j-10, j-11 or j-7)
2. You are never going to have a photograph of every single J-10 in service
3. Even if there is, who knows how many of them are PSed?

So, as the backdrop for that, the next question is how can we count J-10s?
The two most common ways are using engine count and established divisions.

Engine count:
- not the easiest thing to keep track of.
- let's just say we got the original batch of al-31fn that China purchased pre-2002 for the prototypes (makes sense, since there would be no other way for the J-10 prototypes to come out if the first batch is the batch of 54)
- then we got the first batch of 54 al-31fn
- then we got the second order of 100 al-31fn, we read that 60 were sent when that Russian article came out in March
- finally, there is an unknown number of WS-10A used for J-10
- You are looking at about 125 engines delivered to CAC by March for the J-10s (10 WS-10A is really not an exceedingly high guess)
- The question is how many of the engines are fitted on J-10
- Nothing is certain, but you can make your own guesses
- with the quick delivery schedule of AL-31FN (basically 100 in less than a year), it gives you an idea of the speed of the production

And second part is based on the number of regiments:
- each Chinese regiment when fully equipped has around 24 to 28 fighters (so, about the same as an American squadron)
- I'm sure you read about the 4 to 5 regiments that have been identified
- the question is whether they are fully equipped as of now, I would say that division 2 and 3 are probably not fully equipped, some of the planes might still be under testing in CAC.

Finally, the most controversial way is probably just listen and accept the counts of the people close to plaaf and has access to classified info.

i would say engine count is the best way.

just my $0.02

[Gollevainen]

yeas, but still only speculations. There are adequate proofs that total of 150 engines are ORDERED. But to fit them to the actual planes, you need "ifs" and "most likelys" to make clear sentenced and we are back to square one...

I wont deny that eventually the first batch is going to be approx. 150 J-10 in service, but when it going to be...I don't know, you dont' know and none knows it for certain....I've stated my case, i think we should move on to other equipment in PLA's inventory...

[tphuang]

yeas, but still only speculations. There are adequate proofs that total of 150 engines are ORDERED. But to fit them to the actual planes, you need "ifs" and "most likelys" to make clear sentenced and we are back to square one...

I wont deny that eventually the first batch is going to be approx. 150 J-10 in service, but when it going to be...I don't know, you dont' know and none knows it for certain....I've stated my case, i think we should move on to other equipment in PLA's inventory...
that's the problem with plaaf, you can never get a hold on its inventory exactly at any particular time. Everyone is going to have their own opinion on it. That's why we have so many arguments on it. It's not just J-10, it's with all their new systems. For example, do we really know exactly how many KJ-2000 have been created? (On a side note, the Y-8AEW is actually called KJ-200.)

[Totoro]

I must say the speed of delivery of those second batch of 100 engines is most puzzling. Even more so if that mentioned new contract for 180 more engines of various types actually realises during 2006. Fact is, no one wants to buy lots of engines and then let them sit in a warehouse. Its just bad economics. So chances are china is using up those engines quickly. 100 engines ordered in 2005 are variant that was tailored for j-10, cant be used on any other plane in china. That pieces of news also mentioned 100 more salyut engines. Now those can very well be for j11s or maybe a combo of j11s and j10s. Other 80 engines are more puzzling, as i didnt find any confirmation than umpo produces either engines for il-76 nor engines to be used in fc-1.

But then that would mean that china uses up 100 j10 engines a year. which would mean at least 80 planes a year. and we know that's impossible, right? I think its safe to assume that no ws10s are really being produced for j10, not yet anyway. theres just too many imported engines to go around. So... what else could al31f be put on? not j11, is there anything else left?

[SampanViking]

a Caveat to that Totoro

If someone were to tell me that China was buying some kinds of equipment, surplus to requirement as a Political Palm greaser for access to higher grades of equipment, I could easily beleive it.

Jet Engines, as a critical part of any countries Aero Industry, would certainly be an area high in that product catagory.

[MIGleader]

I've stated my case, i think we should move on to other equipment in PLA's inventory...

Agreed. ive presented my argument, and you have have yours. Lets move one.

Ok, since airplanes seem to be a popular topic, aprroximately how many j-11s does china have? Ive read estimates of around 95, but those are from 2004. It should be higher by now.

Any ideas? I read that sometime in 2005 china made an order for flanker al-31s, but its uncertain whether these are replacements or for new planes.

any j-11s currentl y using ws-10a?

[Totoro]

It depends on whether the j11 production was paused or not, like it was widely claimed. More sources seem to point out towards the pause though. And figures of completed planes up to that pause range from 95 to 105 units. That was sometime in 2004. Then it was reported sometime in second half of 2005 that production was continued or to be continued, i clearly remember some article from chinese sources saying how the plan for 2006 is to make 17 more j-11. Allegedly, all these new j-11s made after the pause in production are somewhat more advanced and are in a way preparation for j11b. Perhaps their shell is what j-11 will be made of? perhaps to get the b standard one needs just the indigenous engines and avionics. Anyhow, all this about planes being different than first batch is guessing. There is no real proof. And there have been no report about ws10a being installed on newly produced j11 as a regular part of production process. So i'd guess they're not quite there yet. As for total numbers - it depends on how many were produced up to the pause in 2004 and how how many (if any) were produced in late 2005 after the line was restarted. I would assume that today the total number of produced planes so far is somewhere between 101 and 114. :D

[Troika]

I really should have done this right at the beginning. But I didn't. I even got carried away myself. But here we are.

A Tally means a count. As in confirmed sightings, official figures, serial counts. Failing all that, and only if you have good reason to do so, estimates based on regimental counts, and each figure must be clearly labelled and given origin. Also may be included is confirmed sightings of ships in construction (clearly marked as such) and foreign deals finalised pending delivery (also clearly marked as such).

NO speculation. That's for some other thread.

I am not sure what this forum's traditions are regarding threadstarter priviledges, but if there are any, I am remind all and sundry about what this thread is supposed to be about. It's a tally. You want to argue about how the engines will be used, or the relative merits of nationalism, do it elsewhere.

A note on how engine counts are to be used in a tally... They are upper limits. You know China cannot produce more of such and such a type of planes than it has engines. You may speculate on the exact distribution, but if you want to, please clearly mark it as an estimate.

[Gollevainen]

well you see my friend, PRC is the one of the few major military powers that doesen't believe much into openly reported orders of battles. Therefore we cannot discuss over current PLA's inventory countings, if we dont allow discussion to determ the background of each cases of inventory...

for example If you want "offical" invetory of some chinese branch, one could be the lot quoted Weyers Flotten Taschenbuch 2005/2007 listing of PLAN destroyers:

1 DH (Destroyer size helicopter carrier) bulding in Dalian since 2002

2 Project 956EM class Destroyers
2 Project 956E class Destroyers
2 project 052C class destroyers + two more possiply building
2 Project 052B class Destroyers
2 project 051B/C class destroyers (167, 115)
2 project 052 class Destroyers

2 project 051 G2 class Destroyers
2 project 051 DT class destroyers
1 project 051 M class Destroyer
11 project 051 class Destroers

Off course its not what the mainsite&other internet sources tells about PLANs inventory se we have to then enter into firecing depate's over which source is more accurate one.

So in all do respect, leave the determing of what is offtopic and not to the ones that have monopoly to determ that factor in this forum.

[tphuang]

On the issue of WS-10A, I think the production rate is around 55 to 60 this year. I found this piece a while back that around that many sets of the parts needed to assemble for WS-10A were getting produced this year.

I don't think J-11A was ever stopped completely. Crobato will tell you that new J-11 regiments have been formed since 2004. From the past year, the rate of production of J-11A vs J-10 is around 1:3 (in terms of regiments formed I think). The reason is that plaaf is not satisfied with the performance of J-11A, so J-11B is plaaf's ideal flanker I guess. How many J-11Bs are getting produced? I think we might get a new regiment each year? Or if you believe in kanwa, 17 is the number.