"Red line" on Taiwan issue

[Roger604]

Wow, the news today is disturbing. I wonder how the CMC would view this latest move. Does this cross the "red line"? If the momentum toward de jure independence continues, will an attack be imminent?



Finally, some courage from Chen

The Liberty Times Editorial

Sunday, Feb 26, 2006,Page 8

Despite heavy external pressure and attempts by local pro-China groups to create problems, President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) has decided to abolish the National Unification Council (NUC) and the unification guidelines.
When Chen received Republican Representative Robert Simmons of Connecticut, he said the council was "an absurd product of an absurd era" and that it violates the spirit of democracy.

Since the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) has already modified its stance by saying that Taiwanese independence is one of the public's options, it is only sensible that the council and the guidelines be abolished.

At that meeting, Chen also said that the "1992 consensus" was a lie.

He said that over the past few years, Taiwan's opposition parties, China and the US have again and again demanded the acceptance of the "1992 consensus." Now former Mainland Affairs Council chairman and KMT Legislator Su Chi (蘇起) has admitted that he made up the "consensus."

Chen also accused the KMT and the Chinese Communist Party of cheating the world on the matter. When KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou, (馬英九) during an interview with the BBC a few days ago, stressed that the "1992 consensus" should be made the foundation for negotiations with China, he, too, cheated himself and everyone else.

Chen's courage in pushing for the abolition of the council and the guidelines is significant.

The change of power in 2000 was an excellent opportunity for Taiwan to become a normal country.

But the new government only made tiny steps in this direction due to restrictions imposed by the "four noes" and the "1992 consensus."

Binding itself hand and foot to these ideas, the government also adopted the policy of opening up Chinese trade, which resulted in an outflow of capital, technology and skills.

So, on the one hand, Taiwan has been prepared to strike compromises and humiliate itself, and on the other it has opened the door and welcomed the bandits inside.

It is a situation that has proved difficult to undo.

The tragic thing is that Taiwanese know they have been wronged, but are unable to put things right.

Taiwan's promise to abide by the "four noes" was never going to convince China to abandon the threat to invade. Instead, there was a rapid increase in the number of missiles pointed in this direction and the passage of the "Anti-Secession" Law.

Since China does not intend to give up the option of military action, there is no need to stick to any pledge.

Chen's efforts to abolish the council and guidelines does not violate the "four noes" pledge anyway. He is only terminating the operation of a government agency and a doctrine that has not been convened or invoked in six years.

As Chen's proposal only requires an administrative procedure, how is it going to aggravate cross-strait tensions?

The reason cross-strait relations have not improved is because China does not want to renounce force, nor is it willing to treat Taiwan on an equal footing. Taiwan receives no goodwill from across the Strait.

It is China that is attempting to alter the cross-strait status quo and blame Taiwan for escalating cross-strait tensions.

There is now a clear consensus in Taiwan that only Taiwanese may determine the nation's future. The KMT, whose stated goal is unification, has also recently shifted its stance. However, the guidelines see unification as the only option.

Doing away with a government agency and its ossified doctrine of inferiority is not only the best way of asserting our self-belief, but is also a reflection of mainstream opinion.

That is to say, no one has the right to determine Taiwan's future other than Taiwanese themselves.

When Taiwanese and Chinese representatives met in Hong Kong in 1992, the latter insisted on the "one China" principle, while the KMT negotiators demanded that each side be allowed to make its own interpretation of the principle.

No consensus was reached. Beijing's rejection of any consensus has now been verified by Su, who admits to having made the whole thing up. The consensus was therefore a scam orchestrated by the KMT.

The DPP has spent six years looking for new directions for the nation's future. It has now come to its senses, and has chosen to return to the path of Taiwanese consciousness.

It must be stated that Chen has faced tremendous pressure from the US over this development. He certainly needs to resolve tensions with the US and improve communication with Washington.

But abolishing the council and guidelines is the correct move, and having decided to do so Chen must hold firm.

TRANSLATED BY PERRY SVENSSON AND DANIEL CHENG

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2006/02/26/2003294751/print

[vincelee]

another case AGAINST democracy.

You know, democracy is only as good as the voting base, and I think it's well documented that the average Joe is a rather stupid person.

[The_Zergling]

I don't think that this will be the "Red line" that will have China lobbing missiles towards Taiwan...

If the Chinese leadership is smart all they have to do is consider, "Hey, the Taiwanese don't have a dictatorship, they have elections, so this troublemaker is going to be out of office in a few years, and after that a KMT president will definitely take power because the DPP is screwing up now, so why the rush?"

And then they sit back and sip their tea, snickering while Taiwan's economy gets so bad that by 2010 they're BEGGING to be integrated into the economy...

In short, I'm not worried. (About war. I'm worrying about the Taiwan economy)

[SampanViking]

I think the Zergling has the jist of it.

Whilst there is an active political and commercial opposition, the PRC will not be overly concerned. It would need a largely unanimous consensus amongst the Taiwanese Elite and Public to provoke even the beginnings of an embargoe or blockade, let alone a shooting war.

[Obcession]

Zergling, I agree with most of your points except one.

The Taiwan economy is already very dependent on PRC, and will be increasingly more dependent on it. As long as the PRC economy is booming, it is safe to say that the Taiwan economy will be dragged along with it. So in a couple of years, I don't see the Taiwan economy going awry, infact I think it will be even more prosperous. BUT, if China decides to stop trading with Taiwan, surely Taiwan's economy will suffer. But the PRC economy will hurt as well, and thus it is not such a good idea. Therefore, although Taiwan will be relying on the PRC economy more and more, it will not go downhill, atleast in the foreseeable future.

[PiSigma]

don't think beijing is going to do much about this.. they are pretty much at the stage of not caring what chen does, bc they know he can't do much anyways. and just try to get the voters on taiwan to vote in a KMT leader in 2008.

[Roger604]

I'm confused about what you mean. Why can't CSB "do much"? Can't he hold a referendum on independence? Can't he start endorsing independence openly and sell it to the population? Can't he start developing 'relations' with Japan and maybe other countries?

I am very disturbed by the recent news because I fear he is pushing Taiwan down this path now instead of risking a defeat in the next presidential election.

[The_Zergling]

I'm confused about what you mean. Why can't CSB "do much"? Can't he hold a referendum on independence? Can't he start endorsing independence openly and sell it to the population? Can't he start developing 'relations' with Japan and maybe other countries?

I am very disturbed by the recent news because I fear he is pushing Taiwan down this path now instead of risking a defeat in the next presidential election.

I have to admit you have me confused by this post... CSB doesn't have another presidential election to worry about...

Yes he can hold a referendum on independence, which would be a waste of time and money because as I stated before Taiwan is already pretty much a de facto country in itself. He can indeed endorse Taiwan identity openly and sell it to the population, in fact that was one of his campaign tactics in the last election.

However, he cannot develop relations with other countries, because of China. Nearly every country wants a piece of China's market because of its ludicrous possibilities. China is generally happy to let this happen, but there's one catch, if you recognize China you have to disavow Taiwan.

Only a handful of countries (mostly Central American countries that many people haven't even heard of) still recognize Taiwan.

In short, the above reason is the main reason why I don't think the Chinese leadership will care what Chen does (by this I mean be seriously worried), because they have control of the world's pursestrings, while Taiwan has no bargaining power.

Obcession's post got me curious about how economically China and Taiwan are entwined... I'll post more about that once I learn more...

[Typhoon]

I guess Zsergling is right again, there is no need for China to do anything. As a matter of fact, let's face it, even China wants to do anything, China doesn't have the muscle do it.

If United States hasn't backed up Taiwan from the begining, there's simply no Taiwan problem. Even today, it is the Uncle Sams to allow CSB to step on the red line. CSB doesn't have any gut to step on the red line without the backup. The backup is there even both Taiwan and Uncle Sames don't want to say it explicitly this tme. China just pretends they didn't see it.

If China has the muscle, Taiwan will automatically happily reunion with its motherland --- just like Hawaii happily to be a part of United States even they are not culturally and historically related. HeHeHe! :rofl:

A simple question you have to ask: China politically agrees that Hawaii is part of US. But, did China has a domestic "Hawaii Realtion Act" to sells arms to Hawaii, tell Hawaiians they don't look like Americans, they don't talk like Americans, they don't act like Americans, so they must stand up to fight for their own freedom and independence. Long live the Kingdom of Hawaii! HAHAHA!:rofl: HEHEHE! :roll:

[Gollevainen]

hehehe indeed...Now back in line!:off
This thread is on the edge so cut out useles BS will you?

[Typhoon]

If United States hasn't backed up Taiwan from the begining, there's simply no Taiwan problem. Even today, it is the Uncle Sams to allow CSB to step on the red line. CSB doesn't have any gut to step on the red line without the backup. The backup is there even both Taiwan and Uncle Sames don't want to say it explicitly this tme. China just pretends they didn't see it.


Well, I was wrong. China did see it. Today China "urged" US to stick to the their commitment on Taiwan question. Why has US repeatedly ignored its commitment to Taiwan question? even has been selling arms to Taiwan based on its domestic "Taiwan Relation Act"?

It is because, as I said before, China doesn't have the muscle. China doesn't have the muscle to have a "Hawaii Relation Act" to tell people in Hawaii people to fight for their own independence. Hawaii is even not culturally or historically related to United States as the way Taiwan related to China. How could US stand between Taiwan and China?

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2006-02/28/content_4239006.htm

BEIJING, Feb. 28 (Xinhuanet) -- China on Tuesday urged the United States to stick to the commitments on Taiwan question and be aware of the seriousness and harm of secessionist activities in Taiwan.

The United States should take substantial efforts to oppose "Taiwan independence" and not send any wrong signal to Taiwan secessionists, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao said at a press conference.

"We have noticed that the spokesman for U.S. government reaffirmed that the United States adheres to the one-China policy and opposes 'Taiwan independence'," Liu said.

"I hope the United States can make joint efforts with us in safeguarding China-U.S. relations and the peace and stability across the Taiwan Straits," Liu said. Enditem

[Typhoon]

CSB stepping on red line could prove devastating to the worldwide electronics industry, not to mention the stability in Asia. Today Electronic Engineering Times ("EETimes", the largest electronic industry weekly newspaper in US, in case you don't know) shows the serious concern on the latest happening in Taiwan. It also mentions the issue of the (US) domestic "Taiwan Relations Act":

http://www.eet.com/news/design/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=181401249

SAN JOSE, Calif. — Tensions are running high again between Beijing and Taipei — a series of events that could rattle the worldwide electronics supply chain.
Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian generated some sparks by recently abolishing the island’s National Unification Council and guidelines for working towards eventual reunification with China, according to reports.

In response, Chinese President Hu Jintao on Tuesday (Feb. 28) warned Taiwan that it was taking a "dangerous step" by scrapping the council, according to reports.

Chen, according to Hu, is taking steps towards a disastrous plan of declaring independence for Taiwan. Even Taiwan’s business leaders have been critical of Chen’s policies, which are perceived as creating some instability in the region.

Any conflict in the region would be disastrous for China, Taiwan and the United States. In total, Taiwan has poured up to $100 billion into China since the late 1980s. Acer, Hon Hai, TSMC and other major electronics companies in Taiwan have set up plants in China.

In 1949, China and Taiwan split after the Nationalists lost a civil war to the communists. At the time, the Nationalists fled to Taiwan. Since then, China has viewed Taiwan as a renegade province.

China has also vowed to attack Taiwan — if the island declares independence. China has at least 700 ballistic missiles targeting the island.

The United States has also vowed to protect Taiwan in the event of an attack. On March 29, 1979, Congress also passed the Taiwan Relations Act, establishing a new relationship with Taiwan following U.S. recognition of the People's Republic of China.

[EternalVigil]

Hawaii isn't composed of a population that fled the slaughter of a brutal band of communist thugs taking over the mainland US. To say that the Taiwanese should be forced to give up freedom, democracy, and live under the rule of a corrupt and all to often inhumane communist regime is to show zero regards to their basic human rights. They shouldn't be sacrificed just to satisfy one of Beijing's ego trips.I prefer the status quo of Taiwan and a peaceful reunification in the future. Not attacking 25+million chinese on Taiwan, and killing alot to overthrow their democracy for a authoritarian government. I'm sure vinelee will flame me because he's an idiot but that my 2 cents.

[vincelee]

this coming from an American....ironic.

by the way, perhaps the reason why I "flame" you is because you, who was most likely brainwashed during the Cold War era and incorrigibly steeped in American propaganda preaching the moral superiority of the US against the Godless Commies, reeks the type of blind political naivete that is absolutely sickening.

[Obcession]

Ironic indeed. E Vigil, next time you make such bold statements, back them up, mind you?

I could say the same thing about the US government and I wouldn't be lying. But I will refrain myself from flamming.

[Roger604]

Hawaii isn't composed of a population that fled the slaughter of a brutal band of communist thugs taking over the mainland US. To say that the Taiwanese should be forced to give up freedom, democracy, and live under the rule of a corrupt and all to often inhumane communist regime is to show zero regards to their basic human rights. They shouldn't be sacrificed just to satisfy one of Beijing's ego trips.I prefer the status quo of Taiwan and a peaceful reunification in the future. Not attacking 25+million chinese on Taiwan, and killing alot to overthrow their democracy for a authoritarian government. I'm sure vicelee will flame me because he's an idiot but that my 2 cents.

Of course, God gave a moral mandate to America. That's why it can do no wrong -- the ends always justifies the means, including any means.

Those 1,000,000 civilians slaughtered during the forced annexation of the Philippines must be so proud of the freedom America gave their people.


Anyway, back to topic:

What do you think is the red line, then? I personally think this is very close to the red line. In fact, any tinkering with the constitution to remove the formal claim over all of China would cross the red line. That includes removing the name "Republic of China." Calling a referendum on independence would also be a red line.

[PiSigma]

remember no country bashing is allowed. EternalVigil next time you want to start a flame war, don't make it in this forum. and Yue, next time someone provoke you into a flame war, don't take the bait, just ignore him.

[Typhoon]

Becasue of the interesting analoge between China-Taiwan and US-Hawaii and, instead of bashing any country, I suggest anyone before he got "2 cents opinion" should click around the internet, especially click around Hawaii because Hawaii got such interesting history.

After you have clicked around, you may share with us why US refused to join Great Britain and France to recognize Hawaii as an independent Kingdom in 1843? what happened to Queen Liliuokalani of Hawaii Kingdom in 1893? Who founded "Republic of Hawaii" in 1894 and what happened then? Why US President McKinley decleared Hawaii under US sovereignty in 1898? And, Up to today, how many nations in this world has formally recognized Hawaii as a part of US territory? I bet the last one may be the most interesting question to find the answer.

If you allow me, my humble opinion is China-Taiwan relation is much simpler than that of US-Hawaii, and it shouldn't be any problem at all. All I can think is: "it becomes a problem simply because China lacks the muscle."

Chairman Mao said "All the political powers are coming from the gun barrels". Chinese should admit it that, instead of them, only Americans are the true good students of the "Thoughts of Chairman Mao." :)

[Gollevainen]

A word About Hawaiji and the one mentioning gets warning, ARE WE BEEING CLEAR ENNOUGH????
Back to the topic or thread gets to be closed!!

[Typhoon]

A word About Hawaiji and the one mentioning gets warning, ARE WE BEEING CLEAR ENNOUGH????
Back to the topic or thread gets to be closed!!

Golly: We are talking about Taiwan red line here. You are certainly welcomed to contribute any of your thoughts if you have one. If you don't agree with the China-Taiwan and US-Hawaii analogy. Just say it and tell us why you don't agree. That's what this "forum" for.

By the way, you have to be polite and don't ever call other people "BS". We have been keeping on losing forum members to post here because people are using abusive language. Anyone, no matter he is moderator or not, uses that word should wash his mouth with soap. Remember, "Club Room" is the place to make friends, not the place to call others "BS", and definitely not the place for moderator (or anyone else) to masturbate himself!

[FuManChu]

China will do nothing. Though the angry rhetoric I saw on some Chinese forums was most amusing :)

[KYli]

So Fumanchu, you can read Chinese, I guess as much. :) Since CMF was down and CDF is not talking about it, so what forums that are talking about this issue except maybe here.

[Gollevainen]

Golly: We are talking about Taiwan red line here. You are certainly welcomed to contribute any of your thoughts if you have one. If you don't agree with the China-Taiwan and US-Hawaii analogy. Just say it and tell us why you don't agree. That's what this "forum" for.

I contribute to threads in which have some points on it. This doesen't. I do howerver conduct my moderators job when ever it's required and it ususually means i have to follow some not so constructiveones like these...My personal obinions have nothing to do wiht me moderating or other breaking forum rules, thats purely job assigned to me to execute.

By the way, you have to be polite and don't ever call other people "BS". We have been keeping on losing forum members to post here because people are using abusive language. Anyone, no matter he is moderator or not, uses that word should wash his mouth with soap.

Well excuse me, but try yourself keep this pac of spoiled kids inline wiht nice words like please...try just for fun to first say that "you ore going oftopic, end it before you get hurt", then after few post "Didn't you hear what just said? Now gut it out" and after that....well get my point? Stop ignore moderators advices and warnings, then you will see us do some nice talking.

Remember, "Club Room" is the place to make friends, not the place to call others "BS", and definitely not the place for moderator (or anyone else) to masturbate himself!

You are teaching me (the one participating to make up the new concept of our oftopicforum) about forum rules?????? But you got the point there, make friends...thats one of the main idea behind members clubroom. So tell me? Is fighting and bashing peoples homecountryes and flaming unnneccecerical rattle a good example of making friends? Haloo???? Why do you think me and PiSigma have needed to intervene? Me moderating has nothing to do wiht getting friends...i don't care what you think of me, just long as you respect the forumrules....

And what comes to that masturbate thing- well are you now speaking nicely? Is it polite (or vise) to call others including moderator doing his job masturbating? That and the fact that i promised so in the previous post has now earned yourself a warnig!! Let it be your last as unlike you may think i don't enjoy banning people...actually it makes me sad, exspecially if it is needed to do over silly and little matters like these...but rules are rules.

I advice you to not reply to this post, nor starting any unneccecerical boasting or whining. Also if you have proplems wiht the forum rules, contact Webmaster or Dongfeng over this matter...

[Gollevainen]

So that else wont have no wrong ideas or toughts, This forum is subsidor of Sinedefence.com, a website run By Dongfeng, a private person from england. He's effort to bring you all a good coverage of chinese military for free is highly praized and honoruable task. For funding his effort is unclear to me and it's not my buisness to ask this about him. He has the right for privatism and i don't whis to act against it. Tough i may sure you that this forum nor the maisite acts under none govermnetal controll aside form normal laws of England.

This forum act as a discussion place for Chinese MILITARY and is run by Dongfeng and Webmaster from defencetalk.com (our forums are marryed, but the main sites are different) As their bloodhound and loyal guard, Me and rest of the moderation team run the everyday life in here...keeps things from falling apart. Why it is so hard to understand?

[adeptitus]

<cough> now going back to the Chen & the National Unification Council issue...

As I've mentioned in another post, the National Unification Council in Taiwan had been dead for 6 years with no activity. It doesn't even have the funds to subscribe to a newspaper.

I don't know if Chen wanted to leave a legacy, or maybe kill the NUC before possible takeover by Ma and KMT in the next election. But his attempt at abolishing the NUC has basically re-animated the dead corpse into a walking zombie like House of the Dead. If he had just left it alone, nobody would've cared. But now it's a walking corpse and making dead lines.

Heaven forbid, if the PRC government gives in to the PLA generals and stage another large military exercise, that walking zombie will be given wings and fly around in circles. When dead zombies fly, even weirder things might happen, like Lu Hsiu-Lien winning the next election (!).

IMO the best course of action now is to just let the walking corpse wander around a bit, maybe it'd lay down and die by itself in a year or two. The more attention you give it, the longer it'd live. In 2 years Chen will be gone and we'd be happier with Ma Ying-Jeou in office.

[FuManChu]

In 2 years Chen will be gone and we'd be happier with Ma Ying-Jeou in office.

Somewhat, perhaps. He appears to be a very slippery customer, and it is clear that he wouldn't do anything other than be "nicer" to the mainland. I mean, what do you think the chances of China becoming a multi-party democracy, of the kind that could convince the Taiwanese people to agree to join the P.R.C., are in the foreseeable future? In some respects Chinese people aren't doing themselves any favours by pretending another KMT gov would make everything better. It might make things less stressful, but basic trends (like the increase of a Taiwanese identity on the island) and attitudes (Taiwanese to govern Taiwan only) won't change.

But, yes, the mainland's reaction has been just what Chen hoped for (I guess). If they'd just ignored it then nothing would have happened. But jumping up and down just sends out a negative message. Retaking the Matsu islands like some fenqings have been screaming for would gift the DPP the next batch of elections.

[swimmerXC]

Thanks to your soon to be banned pal, this thread is closed!

[WebMaster]

Typhoon, glad you won't be part of the forum anymore. Which forum would want a person who masturbates on warnings and requests given by the MODERATORS instead of sitting back and relaxing so that you can ponder on the requests?

This forum is here because of SinoDefence.com and DefenceTalk.com, both websites EXPECT YOU to be respectful to OTHER MEMBERs and their countries (even if it is Taiwan). No member is going to last here if we (moderators and admins) cannot provide them with highest level of respect and if we do not enforce that, then everybody will be bashing everybody... which we do not want nor will we entertain those who continue to push for that type of circus around here. You will discuss but with respect to the people involved and highest form of respect to the moderators and admins because they are the people who volunteer and give their time in order to make SinoDefence and SinoDefenceForum a success. And one way for us to be good, successful and respected is when we ban people who ignore moderator and admin warnings and requests. Good bye.