Taiwan plans to build 500 cruise missiles

[FreeAsia2000]

This should make a HUGE difference. 500 precision guided missiles should delay any attack in time for the US to move forces into postion

Intelligence and Terrorism News

Taiwan plans to build 500 cruise missiles
By Martin Sieff Jan 12, 2006, 8:44 GMT
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The ballistic missile strategic balance between Mainland China and Taiwan has just received a new complication: A report from a highly-respected British journal states that the offshore island of 25 million people has already home-produced three prototypes of its own cruise missile capable of striking China`s nearby eastern coast.

Taiwan has ambitious plans for the missile, called the Hsiung Feng 2E , or Brave Wind, Jane`s Defence Weekly reported in its latest issue published Wednesday: It intends to produce at least 50 of them by 2010 and in all, eventually plans to produce and deploy 500 of them.

If these plans come to fruition, relatively small Taiwan could come close to developing a strategic equalizer with giant Mainland China of 1.3 billion people. China has slowly but steadily built up a huge force of around 700 ground-launched ballistic missiles with the apparent strategic goal of eventually threatening Taiwan into compliance and preventing it eventually declaring full, legal independence from the mainland. The Chinese missile build-up also appears aimed at preventing U.S. air and naval forces, especially nuclear-powered aircraft carrier battle groups, from operating in the Taiwan Strait to defend Taiwan. Most of it has been carried out since the Clinton administration deployed nuclear carrier battle groups in the strait in July 1995

The new Hsiung Feng missiles will also be mobile, JDW said. Therefore they will not be vulnerable to any preemptive strike from the mainland. The publication said they would have a range of around 360 miles, allowing them to threaten Hong Kong to the south and Shanghai, China`s main business and financial center, to the north.

The Taiwan defence ministry declined to comment on the report, Jane`s said.

Copyright 2006 by United Press International

http://news.monstersandcritics.com/intelandterror/article_1075351.php/Taiwan_plans_to_build_500_cruise_missiles

[adeptitus]

I think the Janes article has too much speculation. But from past military orders vs. actual numbers delivered, if the ROC military ask for 500, I think they'd end up with fewer. So if they really wanted 200 missiles, it'd be a smart move to ask for 500. hehehe.

The warhead on the HF-2E missile is only 200kg, so unless if it has precision guidance and used on high-valued targets, it won't be very effective. It does, however, enable the ROC to strike back at PRC land targets.

[PiSigma]

360 miles is not enough to hit shanghai, shanghai is 420 miles from taipei, and hong kong is 480 miles from taipei... good luck hitting them. fuzhou and xiamen are pretty much the only major cities that's close enough to taiwan to be hit.

[utelore]

I believe the ROC could hit all major cities in china. I think given there Hi-tech ability along with a defence industry that produces fighter jets and cruise missile there is no reason why the ROC does not have somthing sitting in its basement in secret that could be used in time of war to make a symbolic attack even on the PRC capital.

[tphuang]

I believe the ROC could hit all major cities in china. I think given there Hi-tech ability along with a defence industry that produces fighter jets and cruise missile there is no reason why the ROC does not have somthing sitting in its basement in secret that could be used in time of war to make a symbolic attack even on the PRC capital.
ROC and secrecy? You are kidding me, right?

Seriously though, I do think ROC will have ballistic or cruise missile capable of hitting shanghai and Hongkong soon. That's why China has so many SAMs in these areas.

[crazyinsane105]

The ROC has secrecy? Since when? Chinese intelligence have heavily penetrated many aspects of ROC's defense industry (also helps since half of Taiwan's population wants to reunite with China). So there is actual secret that the ROC has.

[ahho]

the question is why would ROC want to hit hong kong or even shang hai??? That would really heard it's image and the world would probably condemned the act. Unless it is hitting military targets.

[drunkhomer]

does taiwan have da capabilities to hit da 3 gorges damn?

[USAhater]

I think this is to be used as defence. There is no way Taiwan can attack China and still live. I don't even think they will fight, they will unite eventually without violence. Like Germany.

If Taiwan does attack China, it'll be a crater.

[ger_mark]

you dont want wo campare frg and gdr with prc and roc

[PiSigma]

east and west germany were a lot more balanced than prc and roc... and also most germans wanted to unit a lot...
also the three gorges dam is designed to be able to stand against most non-nuclear weapons, so even if taiwan's cruise missiles can reason it, it won't do much. also there are military units stationed around there to protect it.

if any nation or group attacks three gorges dam, they will be internationally disgraced, because it means they are willing to kill hundreds of millions of people along the yangzi river.

[WEN?]

i don't really think that Taiwan would really want to destroy the 3-gorges dam and provoke open war. if taiwan strikes first i don't think any country is really going to help them in fear of being hit themselves.

[tphuang]

i don't really think that Taiwan would really want to destroy the 3-gorges dam and provoke open war. if taiwan strikes first i don't think any country is really going to help them in fear of being hit themselves.
you'd be surprised. I have a feeling that certain groups in Taiwan (TI group) have the attitude of taking China down with them. They are willing to incur as much economical damage on China as possible in the event of a war. This is from talking to my best friend in Taiwan.

[Su-34]

you'd be surprised. I have a feeling that certain groups in Taiwan (TI group) have the attitude of taking China down with them. They are willing to incur as much economical damage on China as possible in the event of a war. This is from talking to my best friend in Taiwan.

You do not understand China's strategy. China's GDP is higher than Taiwan, and grows double-digit annually. If Taiwan makes 500 LACMs, China will simply retaliate by making 1,500 cruise missiles and 1,500 ballistic missiles targetting Taiwan. Plus, China can use its soon-to-be-launched electro-optical satelites to destroy Taiwanese LACM launching sites before the ROC can even launch them.

Plus, ROC hasn't passed the bill for PAC-3 Patriot missiles, and China may soon buy Russian S-400 missiles. China can out-produce Taiwan in missile manufacturing capability. Comparing to J-10 and future JXX, cruise missiles are relatively cheap to mass-produce, and can be armed with a variety of warheads. Also, Taiwanese LACMs can do nothing against the dozens of PLAN nuclear and diesel subs prowling the Yellow Sea, South China Sea and the Yellow Sea.

Taiwanese LACMs can do nothing against PLA MRBM launching sites with ranges over 2,000 kms. Tor M-1ss, HQ-9s, and FT-2000s will shoot down Taiwanse LACMs like Birds, because they do not even match the Tomahawk, which PLA can shoot down easily in the future!:china:

[Gollevainen]

Little reminder that when you make a bold boasting post like these, have the courtesy of broviding the proof to your claims. Arrogant statements like these will only couse trouple and trouple means usually that Gollevainen gets very mad....:mad: and i'm sure you know by this far what that means...

[MIGleader]

Kinda reminds me of insurgents...kill as many americans as possible. same with japanese troops in WW2.

Taiwan may have missles, but any attack on the mainland would incite tremedous retaliation. thus, taiwan would only use them for counter strike, leaving china with the first chance to kill the cruise missle sites.

[walter]

let's not forget this part of the article:

"The new Hsiung Feng missiles will also be mobile, JDW said. Therefore they will not be vulnerable to any preemptive strike from the mainland."

If ROC does produce around 500 of these it would be nearly impossible for Mainland China to take them all out in any preemtive strike. None the less, no one really thinks these cruise missles would tip the balance much anyway, right?

[MIGleader]

Mobile depends really on how well taiwan can detect these missles. if chian china jam taiwanese detection radar, then laucnh a night attack, the missles wont be there when the sun rises.

[The_Zergling]

I think the definition of "tipping the balance" is somewhat vague. Practically speaking, the cruise missiles (if the story is true) won't be able to defeat China, obviously.

However, for the purpose of making China think twice before attacking, I think they would serve nicely. Perhaps there are groups in Taiwan that want to cause as much damage to China as possible if they were hit.

Regardless of the reasoning behind having the missiles, an undeniable fact is that if Taiwan has the ability to cause serious damage to China's cities, it is a viable deterrent to war, a smaller scale MAD.

It's not simply a "revenge" psychology, I believe that in general the Taiwanese don't have much desire to kill Chinese people (or any other people, for that matter) but having these missiles to say, "Hey, don't try anything if you don't want to suffer a few bruises" is a somewhat ironic way of promoting an un-easy peace, albeit Cold War style...

[renmin]

The ROC does not have the guts to strike China. Second for what reason? I dont think the ROC would Attack China unless they declasre independence and China Retaileates. Perhapes when Jian Jei Shi was still leader, and they had these missiles, they might have the desire to strike China, but now the main thing in Taiwan is independence not retake China which leads to a matter of defense. I doubt China would really take out these missile sites before ROC declares independence. If PRC attempts, the best way would probably be an airstrike or naval cruise missiles.

[MIGleader]

zergling, you make an excellent point. however, a counter strike method is not the best way to deal with an attack. Rather than striking back with cruise missles AFTER getting a bloody nose, why not stock up on Air defence equipment to PREVENT a strike from even happening? that would be like saying "your free to attack, but expect to suffer heavy casualties".

[The_Zergling]

zergling, you make an excellent point. however, a counter strike method is not the best way to deal with an attack. Rather than striking back with cruise missles AFTER getting a bloody nose, why not stock up on Air defence equipment to PREVENT a strike from even happening? that would be like saying "your free to attack, but expect to suffer heavy casualties".

I agree that stocking up on Air Defense Equipment would be the best way to go if Taiwan wants to stave off a Chinese invasion.

Although I think anyone would have to agree that having the missiles is pretty much also the same thing as saying, "You're free to attack, but expect to suffer heavy casualties" only in a more revengeful way...

Another thing that's worth noting is that the success rate of a cruise missile hitting a huge city like Shanghai and doing a lot of damage is relatively high, whereas the guarantee of the effectiveness of SAMs and Air to Air missiles isn't.

The Chinese invasion force MIGHT get shot down if Taiwan stocks up on a lot of SAMs and AMRAAMS. But Beijing (Or Shanghai, or whatever city, it's all hypothetical) WILL take a cruise missile in the face if you attack... It's effective. Vengeful and pointless, but effective nonetheless, therefore a good deterrent..

BTW... I must say this is the first time I have seen the real Vince in action... got to say he gives us Taiwanese a real bad name...

[WEN?]

Wouldn't attacking mainland china provoke china to use more force or even WMD's? i too agree the need for air defense is in greater urgency for the Taiwan than cruise missles. What is the point of striking back if you are getting destroyed. you will have to focus on destroying the invasion force not the civilians. having greater defense will give you more time to counter attack.

[The_Zergling]

For sure, using cruise missiles would provoke an even greater attack, which is why I wouldn't advocate them in the first place...

Although your point about air defense missiles is only semi valid, in my point of view... unless China hits Taiwan first with a nuke, it isn't really feasible all the cruise missile batteries would be destroyed...

Indeed, to me there is no point in striking back if you are already getting destroyed. I disagree with your reason for stating this point, however.

Focusing on destroying the invasion force is what I would be planning on in terms of defense, because obviously there would be less international backlash. Using the Cruise Missile strategy would be "North Korea" style.

But the thing with MAD is that it is pretty effective most of the time. Besides, if China's mission objective was to kill civilians there's not much of a chance Taiwan could do much about it, there's not enough Patriots to go around.

Right now most of the missiles are tightly bunched in strategically valuable areas, it would be infeasible to have the entire island defended by SAMs.

[tphuang]

For sure, using cruise missiles would provoke an even greater attack, which is why I wouldn't advocate them in the first place...

Although your point about air defense missiles is only semi valid, in my point of view... unless China hits Taiwan first with a nuke, it isn't really feasible all the cruise missile batteries would be destroyed...

Indeed, to me there is no point in striking back if you are already getting destroyed. I disagree with your reason for stating this point, however.

Focusing on destroying the invasion force is what I would be planning on in terms of defense, because obviously there would be less international backlash. Using the Cruise Missile strategy would be "North Korea" style.

But the thing with MAD is that it is pretty effective most of the time. Besides, if China's mission objective was to kill civilians there's not much of a chance Taiwan could do much about it, there's not enough Patriots to go around.

Right now most of the missiles are tightly bunched in strategically valuable areas, it would be infeasible to have the entire island defended by SAMs.
I can only comment on What Taiwan would do according to what some of the hardliners in TI think. I'm sure there are plenty of TI who would send cruise missiles/ballistic missiles to Shanghai out of vengeance.

[Vlad Plasmius]

Well, the problem is they can't have them all out on launchers. The launchers may be mobile but storage houses aren't. Most will be in storage so the Chinese can easily wipe out most of their missiles in a first strike or at least make the Taiwanese work harder and lower readiness.

[Aznsilvrboy]

(also helps since half of Taiwan's population wants to reunite with China).

Sorry i just had to correct that, 1/2 of ROC's population is pan-blue, that does not equal to 1/2 of ROC's population support reunification with China. That's all. Also hi to everyone on Sinodefence...havnt been here in a long time:) .

[MIGleader]

For sure, using cruise missiles would provoke an even greater attack, which is why I wouldn't advocate them in the first place...

Although your point about air defense missiles is only semi valid, in my point of view... unless China hits Taiwan first with a nuke, it isn't really feasible all the cruise missile batteries would be destroyed...

Indeed, to me there is no point in striking back if you are already getting destroyed. I disagree with your reason for stating this point, however.

Focusing on destroying the invasion force is what I would be planning on in terms of defense, because obviously there would be less international backlash. Using the Cruise Missile strategy would be "North Korea" style.

But the thing with MAD is that it is pretty effective most of the time. Besides, if China's mission objective was to kill civilians there's not much of a chance Taiwan could do much about it, there's not enough Patriots to go around.

Right now most of the missiles are tightly bunched in strategically valuable areas, it would be infeasible to have the entire island defended by SAMs.

alright, never mind the SAMs for now. There are still PLA units with mobile missles and AAA.

If taiwan responded to a PLA military attack by bombing civilians in china, almost all international support for taiwanese independence would dry up.

also, building 500 new missles isnt the same as feilding them. Logistics, command, and deployment must be maintained. We dont want a KMT commmander who hates china getting trigger happy...

[vincelee]

Taiwan fielding 500 cruise missiles........I don't know what to say. If Taiwan goes for counter value and bomb Shanghai and Guang Dong, it would piss a lot of people off, CMC included. The best choice for Taiwan is to either bend over for PRC or bend over for USA. Take your pick.

[walter]

Why does everyone assume Taiwan would target Chinese population centers? These cruise missles have far more value if aimed at fixed Chinese military installations that would be diretly involved in any invasion scenario. Getting through airdefense systems would be difficult, but with 500, I imagine a few Chinese sites could be over saturated. I guess my main point here is that I highly doubt Taiwan would target population centers in China--as many have already pointed out that is a no win situation. Mainland Chinese would simply demand more blood and the international community would condemn such an action as well--I am sure Taiwanese military leaders and politicans are acutely aware of these and other disadvantages of a civilian strike.

[SampanViking]

Why does everyone assume Taiwan would target Chinese population centers?

Hi Walter, I would ask why everyone assumes the DPP would be able to get this or any other other measure through the KMT dominated DUMA.

As for the rest of you:

I have no doubt, but all but the most extreme minority of Pro Independance supporters have realised that President Chen,s recent warnings and outbursts are the ravings of a Lame Duck President and that the DPP are a party with nothing to say and nowhere to go. The best they can offer is Isolation and Marginalisation, the worst War and Hostile Invasion.

I realise that many Taiwanese will not be prepared to admit this yet in public, but after spending a long dark night of the soul are now admitting this to themselves.

Ultimately what is 500 conventional Cruise Missiles but just 500 bombs. In WW2 Air Raids of 500 bombs often failed to warrent reporting in the news.

What would 500 bombs do to a big city like Shanghai? Nothing that China would not be able to repair within a year and nothing that would halt the business and development of that city.

What would 500 bombs do to a Military concentration across the straits? Delay it perhapse, cause some damage and temporary bottlenecks. What did the V1's and V2's aimed at the allied Beacheads of Normandy and the Ports of Southern England do to stop the liberation of Europe in 1944?

China's missiles pointing at Taiwan are only significant as; if used, it would knock out Taiwans defences long enough for landings to commence. What follow up would Taiwan attempt against the Fujianese coast?

Ultimately its pointless, this is why the KMT will vote the missile measures out, this is why the KMT will win all forthcoming elections culminating with the Presidential elections in 2008, this is why the KMT and CCP will rerach an accord and commence a process of reconciliation.

Trust me, there is not going to be a Armed Invasion of Taiwan:coffee:

[Vlad Plasmius]

500 Cruise missiles could do a lot of damage if used properly.

However, the problem is that they probably just can't use all 500 at once.

[FuManChu]

Taiwan fielding 500 cruise missiles........I don't know what to say. If Taiwan goes for counter value and bomb Shanghai and Guang Dong, it would piss a lot of people off, CMC included.

I don't think that they would - they'd go after military installations if they could reach them. After all however many cruise missiles they'll get, they'll always be behind the PRC in terms of numbers (of whatever). So they'll have to use what they have wisely.

The thing about the Three Gorges' was a bit of propaganda from one person in the military, as far as I can remember. Taiwan might just do it, but only if it was about to get completely squished - it wouldn't do it at the start.

[SampanViking]

More evidence that Chen is losing the plot bigtime today.

He has made a speech in which he has announced the scrapping of the Chinese Unification Council and has openly called for a referendum to join the UN as Taiwan - not even as ROC.

America has reacted with surprise and given no words of support and have warned Chen about unilateraly seeking to change the status quo.

I have not read any official PRC reaction. I would hope they simply reiterate the official Chinese Policy to any attempt to declare UDI, but otherwise dismiss Chen's words as the unimportant rantings of a powerless non-entity. Vibrant threats would of course simply play into Chens hands both at home and abroad. Doubtless this is what he is looking to achieve.

Lets hope that the PRC can demonstrate a more sophisticated response.

[MIGleader]

Chens just being stupid. A few more moves like these and not even america will support him. With no spares or extra weapons comming in, Chens screwed when the PLA get in high gear.

[FuManChu]

More evidence that Chen is losing the plot bigtime today.

He has made a speech in which he has announced the scrapping of the Chinese Unification Council and has openly called for a referendum to join the UN as Taiwan - not even as ROC.

Not at all - it's an indication that he's being realistic.

The council has not met in many years. And the Pan Blue-controlled legislative has cut its budget to a trivial amount of money. So why should he keep it running? If the KMT want to keep it, they should have let Chen have the money to run it properly. Finally he has had enough, so their playing politics has backfired on them. It's too late for them to claim they want it to stay as a symbol - they demonstrated how little they cared for it by cutting the funding.

Lol, and obviously he's going to joint the UN as Taiwan. The leadership renounced its claim to the mainland ages ago, and the UN can't have two Chinas in it. So obviously he would have to do that.

[SampanViking]

Hello Fu Man Chu

The council has not met in many years. And the Pan Blue-controlled legislative has cut its budget to a trivial amount of money. So why should he keep it running? If the KMT want to keep it, they should have let Chen have the money to run it properly. Finally he has had enough, so their playing politics has backfired on them. It's too late for them to claim they want it to stay as a symbol - they demonstrated how little they cared for it by cutting the funding.

Nice try at spin, not too bad at all.....sadly this old dog has just been around the block too many times to fall for it.

Governments control committes and provide the will to make them work, not oppositions. If the funding of this committee is indeed a measure blocked by Pan Blue (I have absolutly no evidence of this one way or the other) we can safely assume it is because its purpose would have been perverted under the hostile DPP administration, whilst it is easier to let it hibernate during this time and then re-invigorate it again, once a sympathetic government is elected.

Not at all - it's an indication that he's being realistic

Politics is the art of the possible. This is just fantasy of a Hitleresque Bunker mentality that will only appeal to the most parochial Taiwanese residents.

After spending an afternoon perusing the PRC and ROC English language press, I am left in no doubt of the following.

Bush is very angry with Chen for trying to rock the boat with PRC at a time when US is trying to garnish every ounce of goodwill.

Commentators on both of the Straits are critical of Chens general stance (PRC has largely ignored Chens specific statements) talking instead of the public desire for better relations and more direct contacts and reminding the Taiwanese of $300+ Billion trade surplus Taiwan generates from its largest export market the PRC.

So overall PRC has done the bright thing and ignored Chen rather than be drawn by him. Result Chen having alienated the Bush Administration is now more Isolated then ever before.

Quack Quack!!!:roll:

[SampanViking]

Here is the official response to Chen by the CCP, as lifted from todays Xinhua. I for one am very gratified by the PRC's statemanlike and non belligerant reaction.

BEIJING, Feb. 8 (Xinhuanet) -- A State Council official says the recent remarks about "Taiwan independence" by Taiwan's "leader" and his stubborn adherence to secessionist stance prove again that he is the troublemaker and saboteur of the cross-Straits relations, and peace and stability of the Asian Pacific region.

Li Weiyi, the spokesman for the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council made the remarks here Wednesday at a regularly scheduled news conference.

Over the last year thanks to joint efforts of compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Straits, the cross-straits relations have developed toward stability and peace, Li said, adding the compatriots on the two sides were encouraged by the good momentum, which has also gratified the international community.

"However, the Taiwan leader ran counter to this momentum," Li stressed, saying "after his provocative New Year speech, the leader made "Taiwan Independence" remarks again while compatriots on the two sides were celebrating the Spring Festival.

Chen Shui-bian proposed on Jan. 29 in his Lunar New Year speech the termination of the "National Unification Council (NUC)" and the "National Unification Guidelines," formulation of a "new constitution" and "the application for United Nations membership under the name of Taiwan." In this speech, he also broke his former promises and challenged the one-China principle which is commonly abided by the international community

On May. 20, 2000, Chen promised to not declare Taiwan independence, incorporate the "two states" idea into its constitution, change the so-called country's name or to hold a referendum on Taiwan independence, and not to abolish the "NUC" and the "National Unification Guidelines."

Chen advocated to speed up his so-called "constitutional reform", in an attempt to realize "Taiwan's de jure independence,"Li said.

"Our stance on developing cross-Straits relations is consistent, firm and clear," Li stressed, adding "we will unswervingly adhere to the one-China principle, never give up efforts of peaceful reunification, nor change the principle of pinning hope on the Taiwan people and never compromise on opposition to secessionist activities."

"Taiwan compatriots are our brothers and sisters and we will not change our solemn promise made to them because of the deliberate provocation made by the Taiwan authority leader," Li said.

"We will try our utmost efforts to do every thing which is conducive to the interests of Taiwan compatriots, cross-Straits exchanges, peace across the Taiwan Straits, and peaceful reunification of the motherland," Li said.

"We hope that Taiwan compatriots can make joint efforts with us to propel peaceful and smooth development of cross-Straits relations," he said. Enditem

[FuManChu]

Here is the official response to Chen by the CCP, as lifted from todays Xinhua. I for one am very gratified by the PRC's statemanlike and non belligerant reaction.

Yes, I'm sure the Taiwanese people will really appreciate Beijing meddling in their affairs again...... :roll:

[jackbh]

Hey Fumanchu, are you trying to mock the Chinese with your name, on a Chinese forum? If so, you need to take it some where else.

[SampanViking]

Remember this Fu Man Chu

Chen is trying to rattle his Sabre - well fine, but whilst Sabres rattle, Money Talks.

Elsewhere on this forum (World Section) there are recent pictures from Chechenya. Go and look at them and whilst you look at them meditate on the thought that the majority of people over 25, will: if Independance is denied them, take the conselation prize of being Alive and Solvent.

Chen is bad for business, not just Chinese business, but global business. No one is going to sacrifice the longest period of unbroken global economic growth for a hundred years, just to indulge the fantasies of a Oriental Backwoodsman.

Chen has nowhere to go - hence all the desperate threats, and no one in their right mind; when push comes to shove, is going to follow him into oblivion.

Despite this Fu Man Chu - I have a feeling the world will hear of you again;)

[The_Zergling]

The problem with discussing anything relating to cross-strait relations is that you will inevitably come across politics...

I am pro-independence, however I disapprove of Chen's actions. Not because China should be "unified" or because of some different versions of history, but because of the most basic and unchangeable thing in the world, which is...

The bottom line. (i.e. money)

Whether or not China's threats to take Taiwan with military force are real or not, an undeniable fact is that China is growing in the global market, whereas Taiwan is shrinking. China has been stunting Taiwan's growth through many ways, such as cheaper labor, more resources, and a strong political position. (Such as forcing other countries to recognize China and not Taiwan)

Simply put, Taiwan will have to integrate its economy with China's if it wants to survive. The current situation is that we (I'm speaking for Taiwan) have no bargaining chips on the table because China is very strong now. The more Taiwan pushes for independence, the more China will repress it, simply because of this : China can, and there's nothing Taiwan can do about it.

Engaging in a cold-war style arms race is simply pointless, as is achieving an uneasy truce if your economy is rapidly shrinking. The bottom line is, people have to eat to survive, and if you want to eat you need money, and if you need money you have to become part of China's economy.

Sure, "freedom and democracy" are powerful motivators, but a sad fact is that if you're not being noticed by the world (for being a great place to make money or a tourist trap) nobody's going to CARE at all if you're independent or part of China.

So in my opinion Taiwan has to quit this futile arms race and integrate the economy into China, not because China's stance is necessarily correct (or Taiwan's for that matter) but that this is the only way for survival, you simply cannot survive without money. Once you have a strong economy again you will at least have a CHANCE at being noticed by the world, and possibly have the ability to say what you need to.

To make an attempt to keep this on topic...

I still am not that positive whether or not these cruise missiles are being built, but as I said earlier in this topic I believe they would indeed even up the odds a bit in the case of a potential cross-strait conflict, but it would only slow down the inevitable.

Mods, if this is too political then please tell me so, I need to make sure what is acceptable and what is not. (But it really is hard to stay away from politics completely...)

[Gollevainen]

well i look this trough my fingers as long as no trolling is conducted...

[SampanViking]

Hi Zergling

I applaud your mature and rational analysis and hope that it is becoming the majority view on the Island.

I say this without Triumpalisem, but because I want to see this situation resolved peacefully and am a realist.

All to often this situation is argued in the absolutist extremes of Capitulation or Invasion. In fact I think Tiawan is in a strong position to negotiate a very favourable and profitable constitutional, settlement of the whole question. Sadly this unlikely to occur under a DPP Administration, so the sooner this changes, the better for everybody.

[The_Zergling]

Unfortunately I don't know whether or not my current view accurately represents the view of the majority of people in Taiwan.

I've noticed that once you leave a place and look back on it in from a third person perspective you tend to see things differently, actually more clearly in most cases.

When I was in Taiwan I would often take note of the utter disregard the KMT showed for the constitution and democracy, only abiding by the rules when it suited them and ignoring them where it benefitted their opponents. I took it somewhat personally because I felt that if someone could simply mob rule or riot whenever they lost an election then what else was left?

Even when I knew some of the DPP's economic policies were completely f*cked up I still stood behind them simply because I didn't want to see the KMT rewarded for their riots, slander, and hate speech.

But now what I've left the country and have taken a closer look (it's always somewhat easier to see things as an outsider, it may or may not be more accurate) and I've decided it's time to let someone else try out ruling Taiwan (not China) and see if they do a good job, that's one of the pros about democracy, if the ruling party sucks you have the ability to get them out of office.

I don't think Chen is a blinded lunatic who just wants to "ruin great Chinese history", I believe he's an idealist who doesn't yet realize how the real world actually works. The controversial arms budget's money could easily go towards education, or health care. Investing arms against China is simply like throwing money into a black hole.

In short, I STILL do not know if the cruise missiles are true or not, though it sounds somewhat plausible, considering that nearly anything related to defense and money must pass through the pan-blue dominated legislative yuan. There's probably unnecessary because I don't believe China would really attack Taiwan anyway, just heat up the water until it boils by tightening up economically and isolation.

[SampanViking]

Hi Zergling

Unfortunately I don't know whether or not my current view accurately represents the view of the majority of people in Taiwan.

I've noticed that once you leave a place and look back on it in from a third person perspective you tend to see things differently, actually more clearly in most cases.

In which case the PRC should provide the funds to enable more Taiwanese to travel;)

But seriously, I do appreciate the delicatness of your position and how painful arriving at it must be. I know that the similar position with the UK and EU (very different from PRC and ROC is so many fundemental ways) provokes powerful and often contradictory emotions in me.

I agree largly with your assesment with Chen, any possible moment he had has now passed, and something very major would need to happen to the world for it to come again in our lifetimes. I think has deeply humiliated in the last few weeks, so maybe some of that reality will start to sink in.

In short, I STILL do not know if the cruise missiles are true or not, though it sounds somewhat plausible, considering that nearly anything related to defense and money must pass through the pan-blue dominated legislative yuan. There's probably unnecessary because I don't believe China would really attack Taiwan anyway, just heat up the water until it boils by tightening up economically and isolation.

Oh undoubtedly true, the dangerous factor would be International reaction. If other countries (important ones) were to recognise Taiwan and promise assistance, then I think the PRC would feel it had no option but to take the most drastic action. But I will reiterate, I think the likelihood of this scenario has already receeded far enough to longer be regarded as a serious possibility, and will only receed further in the forrseeable future.

[adeptitus]

I think Zergling made some very valid points.

IMO ROC citizens today are far less ignorant of the conditons in China, than they were under martial-law era. In 2004, it's estimated that 3.68 million ROC nationals visited the PRC, and 750,000 to 1 million+ Taiwanese reside in China, with 300,000 in Shanghai area alone. I had a (Taiwanese) aunt who lived in Shanghai for a year.

In contrast, only 30,000 PRC nationals visited ROC in 2004, and ROC government restricts number of "mainland brides" to 3,600 annually.

To have a peaceful solution (and comprimise) to the PRC-ROC dispute, I think it's necessary for both sides to have a better understanding of each other. I'm hoping that if Ma Ying Jiu wins the Presidental Election in 2008, he'd push for less restrictions on PRC visitors, and invite more tourists & academics (from China) to visit Taiwan.

If people from both PRC and ROC can freely travel, do business, and reside (reasonable immigration requirements) in each other's territory, then the dispute over "reunification" will become irrevelent in time. It's a far better solution than spending billions of your tax payer's dollars to enrich foreign arms dealers, or point hundreds of cruise missiles at each other.

[SampanViking]

Hi Adeptitus

Seems a while since we last spoke

If people from both PRC and ROC can freely travel, do business, and reside (reasonable immigration requirements) in each other's territory, then the dispute over "reunification" will become irrevelent in time. It's a far better solution than spending billions of your tax payer's dollars to enrich foreign arms dealers, or point hundreds of cruise missiles at each other

This is probably at the heart of the entire problem. The question people should be asking is just how much are these travel restrictions actually costing both sides in terms of lost opportunity.

I would hope that the next ROC Govt would end the ban on direct flights on day one and immigration relaxed shortly afterwards. I think we could then see that $300 Billion Annual Taiwanese Trade Surplus with PRC grow quite significantly over a relatively few years.

[KYli]

This is probably at the heart of the entire problem. The question people should be asking is just how much are these travel restrictions actually costing both sides in terms of lost opportunity.

I would hope that the next ROC Govt would end the ban on direct flights on day one and immigration relaxed shortly afterwards. I think we could then see that $300 Billion Annual Taiwanese Trade Surplus with PRC grow quite significantly over a relatively few years.

Hi SampanViking,

No offence, but if I am not wrong, the ROC only had 30 billion trade surplus:) .

All of posts above have great points, cross strait trade has been great benefit for both ROC and PRC. If travel restrictions and immigration relaxed shortly, that would make peaceful compromise much more real.

[The_Zergling]

I strongly agree that cross-strait travel and immigration would help relations quite a bit, and many people have criticized President Chen for not completely opening things up already.

From an outsider's view it is certainly easy to criticize him, however when China tends to treat Taiwan like second-class citizens Chen (and many citizens of Taiwan) tend to get defensive, and when you get defensive you tend to do irrational things, like banning cross strait travel. (Though it's not banned, that was just an analogy)

[SampanViking]

Hi KYli

No offence, but if I am not wrong, the ROC only had 30 billion trade surplus .

Ouch Its not like me to make mistakes like that. I am sure I saw $300 Billion, but now I cannot relocate my original source (or any other).

I know it seems high, but could depend on how its calculated. If offshored factory output (incorporating) Domestically produced components get classed as Exports then its not an unrealistic figure. But that is a guess. If any of you gents can grab the official figures (bearing in mind you lot lost me a good thread last night:mad: :nono: ) I would very :D for being able to save my own time and effort.

[KYli]

Hi KYli



Ouch Its not like me to make mistakes like that. I am sure I saw $300 Billion, but now I cannot relocate my original source (or any other).

I know it seems high, but could depend on how its calculated. If offshored factory output (incorporating) Domestically produced components get classed as Exports then its not an unrealistic figure. But that is a guess. If any of you gents can grab the official figures (bearing in mind you lot lost me a good thread last night:mad: :nono: ) I would very :D for being able to save my own time and effort.

I did a quick check. Trade suplus around 33billion without calculated some figures, and trade surplus around 58billion for 2005 include offshored factory output. Trade surplus around 330billion for accumulated trade.

http://investintaiwan.nat.gov.tw/en/news/200512/2005120801.html


http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2006-01/24/content_515027.htm

Actually, the thread didn't got out of hand, but was closed because the subject was too sensitive. The_Zergling and I would have stoped anyway. Don't be mad:o .:D

[The_Zergling]

Yeah, I felt pretty bad about getting the thread closed until I realized that that kind of topic (relating to Japan-China-Taiwan) was going to get closed anyway, and I felt a bit better...

Cheers, Sanpanviking!:)

[adeptitus]

o_O;;

Taiwan's annual export is $185 billion, and imports $173 billion. It's not possible to have an annual trade surplus of $300 billion with those numbers.

Here's a Taipei times article on the trade surplus:

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2006/01/25/2003290606
Taiwan posted a trade surplus of US$58 billion with China last year (2005), Li said, adding that Taiwan's accumulated trade surplus of US$330 billion with China eclipsed its foreign exchange reserves of US$253.29 billion at the end of December.

[SampanViking]

Thank you gentlemen, for your combined help.

Yes the accumulted surplus was the one I saw, obviously I read incorrectly (danger of skimming). The other stats are interesting and useful too.

Trying desperatly to stay on topic however, there is still an degree of tension in the security position.

Assuming for a moment that in the next couple of years a new Taiwanese Government comes into office which seeks a more concilitary policy towards the mainland, then, with regards to both sides militaries how could:

a) both sides start building confidence measures of good will and avoid possible misunderstandings across the straits.

b) If Confrontation were to turn into Co-operation, how could the two militaries start working together to ensure mutual security.

I look forward to your replies

[SampanViking]

It seems Chen is at it again.

He is repeating his threats against the National Unification Council, despite nobody supporting his position abroad. Lets just hope there is enough power and will in Taiwan itself to prevent this Idiot doing something stupid.

If we are lucky, being shown as incapable of even such a relativly simple act of governance, would show just how Lame a Duck Chen had become and hasten his enivitable departure.

[KYli]

It seems Chen is at it again.

He is repeating his threats against the National Unification Council, despite nobody supporting his position abroad. Lets just hope there is enough power and will in Taiwan itself to prevent this Idiot doing something stupid.

If we are lucky, being shown as incapable of even such a relativly simple act of governance, would show just how Lame a Duck Chen had become and hasten his enivitable departure.
I don't think the opposition could do much to stop him. Even US has hard time to deal with him now. He just want trouble. Anyway since Chen will not need to have another election, I doubt Chen will bow to public pressure.

[The_Zergling]

I don't think Chen is just someone looking for trouble to create hardships for the Taiwanese people. I just believe that he is an idealist who doesn't realize that what he believes is not relevant to the world because China has bigger guns (and a bigger checkbook) thereby making China's opinion worthwhile.

He sticks to his Taiwan Independence-leaning stance because he thinks that this (national identity) is an important issue, the side-effect of this being that Taiwan is losing position in the global market largely because of China.

What is ironic is that for all important aspects, Taiwan already IS its own country, and he's just wasting his time affirming it all the time. Taiwan's got its own currency, own passport, own government and legal system, own military... It's not important if the world calls you Taiwan or Taiwan, Province of the Great Motherland of China! What matters is that the Taiwanese people are suffering from lack of economic prosperity.

I agree with most of his ideals, but what he should realize is that now isn't the right time. Maybe sometime when Taiwan gets its economy back up (possibly from integrating with China), that would be the appropriate time. As of now, survival is paramount.

My whole point of the post was mostly to assert that I don't think he's a madman that will start a war against China for no good reason, but he is an idealist that wants to keep Taiwan from being annexed by China. (Hence the "need" for the Cruise Missiles)

[KYli]

Hi The_Zergling

I have to strongly disagree.

I have fellow the Taiwan news for years, from all wings of both major parties for the matter. Lefties DPP, moderate DPP, moderate KMT, right wing KMT. In public they say what they will win them the most air time or the most votes. However the pro-independence and pro=unification camps are neither. They are both just politicians, take away the TV cameras and they have a very hard time finding something to disagree about.

Why is President Chen Shui bian proposing a referendum not on independence? Why Chen will do some radical move only when either he is in an election or he is in trouble? The simple fact is Chen is a politician not an idealist. An idealist will say and do things as they believe, and politician will do things that will benefict them the most.

Zergling, for these many years, how many time did Chen changed his stance. One day Chen made a statement for independent, and the next he will say something otherwise. I think you will be better to agree with DPP stance, not CSF or any politicans they are just a bunch of liars.

Chen was never a madman, but an politician that will do anything for power. About other things you say, I will not comment since we do not allow to dicuss Taiwan.

[SampanViking]

Hi KYli Hi Zergling

Well at the very least you could say he was presenting cynisem as if it were idealisem.

I don't think the opposition could do much to stop him

Well this the main question isnt it.

The Council itself is almost irrelavent, it has done nothing for years and can be very easily resserected later by another administration.

The point here is about political power and will. Chen holds the Presidency but has lost control of the Legislative Chambers. The question is whether or not he will be able to enforce this policy against very powerful Political and Commercial Opposition.

This opposition will be making it very clear to legislators, judges and opinion makers, that any decision they make on this issue will have critical long term career implications.

Consequently, although he may decree the Council be liquidated, he may find that the levers of power required to effect this change no longer work for him and that the legality of his decree is challenged by senior judges and advocates.

Chen probably realises this, but is still hoping to provoke a PR blunder from the PRC which would cause the KMT's political and public opinion gains of the last year to evaporate. Hopefully the PRC will remain largely mute and allow the Taiwanese opposition to make the running.

[adeptitus]

IMO Chen wants to leave some legacy to his Presidency before leaving office.

Why else would anyone bother to scrap the National Unification Council, which was already dead and didnt' even have budget to buy a newspaper? It's like re-animating a dead corpse to become a walking zombie.

[FuManChu]

The simple fact is Chen is a politician not an idealist. An idealist will say and do things as they believe, and politician will do things that will benefict them the most.

Chen is an idealist AND a politician. So sadly one side has to win over the other sometimes. It is quite clear that Chen wants Taiwan to have formal recognition internationally of Taiwan's independence. He would probably declare it tomorrow if he felt he could. But he also knows that would probably provoke the mainland into launching a military strike and the US might not back him up - and regardless of whether it did, lots of people would die.

It's a bit like the Taiwanese people themselves. If China just said "ok, you decide what to do - there's no pressure on you anymore", I can promise that most would vote for formal independence. But because China threatens to end the status quo and potentially wreck what they enjoy now, the majority does not support such an action currently.

Chen is a politician with strong ideals over Taiwanese independence. But just because he has those ideals does not make him suicidal.

[KYli]

Hi Fumanchu

I think Adeptitus and Sampanking sum it up pretty well Chen true intention in this matter.

Chen may has been somewhat an idealist, but truely this is a political move. It has nothing to do with idealist. As adeptitus said chen may want to leave some legacy before he leaves office, and like sampanviking said he want to provoke PRC and made KMT in a defensive postition, also I will say Chen true intention is also trying to rally the core-independent groups behide him. Ever Since he suffered a humiliate defeat in election, and losing support from both radical and moderate independent groups. Chen has been in a hotseat that many of his allies are turning against him, he had no choice but to do something radical so he will not be broken leg postition in the rest of his term.

Actually Chen do has his chance on the independent movement, but he cares more about his politcial future So he did not went as far as many pro-independent activites hope, and many people are turning against him now because he did a terrible job on economic.

If you has ever look careful on the Chen changing stance on many issues, chen only become very radical when he was in trouble. A true idealist will never be only active on his believe when he is in weak position. Whether idealists do tend to be more firm on their stance, and only be moderate when pressure was put on them. But for the many years I fellow the news, I only see a man who will do anything for votes but not an idealist that do things as they believe.

I do not think Chen is ever suicidal, but whether not a man who keep his words to his supporters or the rest of World.

And about the rest of your post, I will restrant myself from comments. I just want to say I have difference opinions in that matter.

[SampanViking]

Well I think we can see how China intends to react.

It is of course pleased that it seems to have Chen fairly Isolated with all governments, serious commentators and opion makers opposing any Unilateral change to the Status Quo.

China has had talks with senior UN officials on this, as well as those from the EU and US.

My best guess is that China is going to say that the Status Quo is unchanged unless the International Community recognises any of Chens announcements (and of course that the Opposition remain firmly opposed). This means even if Chen declared Formal Independance, no one would recognise it, meaning it would exist only in his own mind.

This way, the Staus Quo is technically unchanged, Chen can say and do whatever he likes without risking the Anti-Secession Act, and things tick along with further CCP/Pan Blue contacts for the next two years until Chen leaves office.

[FreeAsia2000]

Well I think we can see how China intends to react.

It is of course pleased that it seems to have Chen fairly Isolated with all governments, serious commentators and opion makers opposing any Unilateral change to the Status Quo.

China has had talks with senior UN officials on this, as well as those from the EU and US.

My best guess is that China is going to say that the Status Quo is unchanged unless the International Community recognises any of Chens announcements (and of course that the Opposition remain firmly opposed). This means even if Chen declared Formal Independance, no one would recognise it, meaning it would exist only in his own mind.

This way, the Staus Quo is technically unchanged, Chen can say and do whatever he likes without risking the Anti-Secession Act, and things tick along with further CCP/Pan Blue contacts for the next two years until Chen leaves office.

So essentially Chen is left to play in his sandbox. :)

What would happen if Chen acted in a way designed to break out of his isolation ? It would have to be something FAIRLY substantial

[Su-34]

Well I think we can see how China intends to react.

It is of course pleased that it seems to have Chen fairly Isolated with all governments, serious commentators and opion makers opposing any Unilateral change to the Status Quo.

China has had talks with senior UN officials on this, as well as those from the EU and US.

My best guess is that China is going to say that the Status Quo is unchanged unless the International Community recognises any of Chens announcements (and of course that the Opposition remain firmly opposed). This means even if Chen declared Formal Independance, no one would recognise it, meaning it would exist only in his own mind.

This way, the Staus Quo is technically unchanged, Chen can say and do whatever he likes without risking the Anti-Secession Act, and things tick along with further CCP/Pan Blue contacts for the next two years until Chen leaves office.

Steps that China must take to counter A-Bian's separatist intentions are:
1. Increase number of SRBMs aimed at Taiwan annually from 90 to 200 so that the PLA will have 2,000 SRBMs aimed at Taiwan by 2012.
2. Accelerate development of new design destroyers, subs, and frigates to prepare for 2010-2015 amphibious landing on Taiwan.
3. Deploy new satelites with 10 metre resolution to monitor Taiwanese nuclear reactors and PAC-3/ HF-3 LACM missile sites.
4. Increase production of UAVs to prepare for air superiority over Taiwan Strait.
5. Deploy extra 100 MRBMs with more than 2,000km range out of HF-3 firing range and equip those MRBMs with HE warheads and terminal guidance and GPS/Galileo guidance so to have CEP at 50 metres or less and aim all at Taiwanese Air Force bases and missile sites.

[MrClean]

I think that the Taiwain issue is one that needs to be settled diplomatically. Otherwise any other form of military action or show of force will possibly lead to a large regional conflict. And for China to respond to Taiwan's actions by just building bigger better missiles and pointing them at them will just make things worse IMO.

[SampanViking]

Hello Mr Clean

I think that the Taiwain issue is one that needs to be settled diplomatically. Otherwise any other form of military action or show of force will possibly lead to a large regional conflict. And for China to respond to Taiwan's actions by just building bigger better missiles and pointing them at them will just make things worse IMO.

I think it would be difficult to argue with that analysis.

I think we can safely say that any response in line with SU34 suggestion would be precisely waht Mr Chen prays for at bedtime everynight.

Hi FreeAsia

What would happen if Chen acted in a way designed to break out of his isolation ? It would have to be something FAIRLY substantial

I think anything short of formal UN recognition or both Pan Blue and Pan Green supporting Independance would be quietly ignored. Most of the little places that recognise Taiwan are just looking for handouts and are unlikely to upset Beijing.

Possibly Chen might try military action in the hope of dragging others to his aid, but I think that would be a major miscalculation, especially if PRC simply took a defensive position by response.

In short I think now, the PRC has enough irons in the fire to enable them to show levels of restraint which would be hard to imagine even afew years ago. It should be possible for China to do nothing and let Mr Chen's efforts simply boost support for the Pan Blue parties and enhance China's International reputation as a responsible power.

To re-iterate - it would require now; I beleive, nothing short of Pro Independance Political unamity on Taiwan and formal UN recognition, to provoke a serious military response from the PRC.

Both seem highly unlikely events

[FreeAsia2000]

Hello Mr Clean

I

I think it would be difficult to argue with that analysis.

I think we can safely say that any response in line with SU34 suggestion would be precisely waht Mr Chen prays for at bedtime everynight.

Hi FreeAsia



I think anything short of formal UN recognition or both Pan Blue and Pan Green supporting Independance would be quietly ignored. Most of the little places that recognise Taiwan are just looking for handouts and are unlikely to upset Beijing.

Possibly Chen might try military action in the hope of dragging others to his aid, but I think that would be a major miscalculation, especially if PRC simply took a defensive position by response.

In short I think now, the PRC has enough irons in the fire to enable them to show levels of restraint which would be hard to imagine even afew years ago. It should be possible for China to do nothing and let Mr Chen's efforts simply boost support for the Pan Blue parties and enhance China's International reputation as a responsible power.

To re-iterate - it would require now; I beleive, nothing short of Pro Independance Political unamity on Taiwan and formal UN recognition, to provoke a serious military response from the PRC.

Both seem highly unlikely events


So essentially Chen is now locked in a box.

What happens if Chen seeks greater military co-operation with Japan ?

[KYli]

So essentially Chen is now locked in a box.

What happens if Chen seeks greater military co-operation with Japan ?

Chen could still do many things, and he is definite not lock in the box.

Chen had already seek cooperation with Japan, but it is less important for China concern. The biggeest concren for China is what involve between US and Taiwan military cooperation.

[FuManChu]

Possibly Chen might try military action in the hope of dragging others to his aid

Taiwan will never attack China. The first military strike will come from the mainland, if one comes at all.

It should be possible for China to do nothing and let Mr Chen's efforts simply boost support for the Pan Blue parties and enhance China's International reputation as a responsible power.

The Taiwan confllict hardly "enchances China's international reputation as a responsible power". It has only undermined such a reputation, if that ever existed - primarily by passing the Anti-Secession Law. China might think it is acting "responsibly", but I think its actions are only making other countries laugh behind its back. If it had simply ignored the issue over the Council, then that might have made the international community regard it more favourably. But coming up with the usual, tired rhetoric reinforced the usual views about Chinese politics and the government.

Mr Clean actually has the solution. By removing those missiles, China would do a lot to improve its reputation, whilst giving the Pan-Greens one less weapon in their arsenal. The fact that the mainland increases the number of missiles every year only makes Chinese "overtures" to Taiwan seem hypocritical to Taiwanese and people around the world. It's a shame that mainland Chinese can't see that either.

[KYli]

Taiwan will never attack China. The first military strike will come from the mainland, if one comes at all.
Never say never.



The Taiwan confllict hardly "enchances China's international reputation as a responsible power". It has only undermined such a reputation, if that ever existed - primarily by passing the Anti-Secession Law. China might think it is acting "responsibly", but I think its actions are only making other countries laugh behind its back. If it had simply ignored the issue over the Council, then that might have made the international community regard it more favourably. But coming up with the usual, tired rhetoric reinforced the usual views about Chinese politics and the government.

Mr Clean actually has the solution. By removing those missiles, China would do a lot to improve its reputation, whilst giving the Pan-Greens one less weapon in their arsenal. The fact that the mainland increases the number of missiles every year only makes Chinese "overtures" to Taiwan seem hypocritical to Taiwanese and people around the world. It's a shame that mainland Chinese can't see that either.

What the other countries see China is beside the point. China is far more concern with what chinese people think. International community you are talking about are mostly western nations, I doubt many third world countries give a damn about taiwan conflict. Anti-secession law is for the chinese people.

If china do as you said, China will be laugable jokes in the world. The Pan-greens will never stop their intention no matter what. The reputation will have zero affect on many issues, and china will have hard time to convince the Pan-green or world. It is a shame that you always assumpt the naive approach for the world political matters. China would do things to soften the relationship but it will not be foolish enough to believe that they could make a dfferent by giving up their missiles.

[taijisheng]

So essentially Chen is now locked in a box.

What happens if Chen seeks greater military co-operation with Japan ?

co-operate with japan against china is a dangerous thing to do, don't forget the background of taiwanese army is the KMT army, which fought against the japanese in the II WW. If Chen get too close with the japanese millitary, unexpected things could happen in his own army.

[Gollevainen]

co-operate with japan against china is a dangerous thing to do, don't forget the background of taiwanese army is the KMT army, which fought against the japanese in the II WW. If Chen get too close with the japanese millitary, unexpected things could happen in his own army.

well this is almoust as stubid to say that when Finnish army has relationships to Bundeswehr, The Nazis are going to re-intervene into Russia. Comon, little sensibility may I ask? Thougth it much fit in chinese nationalistic rubbish to make up conspiracy theoryes over sixty years old event, I think the clever rest of us knows that the real world functions in bit different levels. So dont speed up this allready edgy threads up coming closure by flaming another japanese bashing contest.:off

[KYli]

well this is almoust as stubid to say that when Finnish army has relationships to Bundeswehr, The Nazis are going to re-intervene into Russia. Comon, little sensibility may I ask? Thougth it much fit in chinese nationalistic rubbish to make up conspiracy theoryes over sixty years old event, I think the clever rest of us knows that the real world functions in bit different levels. So dont speed up this allready edgy threads up coming closure by flaming another japanese bashing contest.:off

Golly, I don't see what you mean about that. Chen might want to seek closer relationship with Japan, but in Taiwan military there is some faction who don't like Japan much.

If you don't know, please don't say others stupid or nationalististic conspiracy thoery. The taiwan do have sea dispute with Japan, some area especially the fishing communities dislike the Japanese because they have been bully by japanese navy. There are still many people who hate Japanese for the 50 years of colonized. There are some KMT military people who still have position in Taiwan military and they are not fond of Japanese. Even the majority Taiwanese might be fond of Japan, there are also people have resentment against Japanese.

But off course Chen could still manage to cooperation with Japan, much of the taiwanese probably will be OK with that.

[Gollevainen]

Golly, I don't see what you mean about that. Chen might want to seek closer relationship with Japan, but in Taiwan military there is some faction who don't like Japan much.

If you don't know, please don't say others stupid or nationalististic conspiracy thoery.

Thrust me, past is past...afull lot of can happen in 60 years...Nations once enemyes now allies and so on. Digging up possiple scenarios based on past misconducts are conspiracy theoryes, nothing more...

Any or other way around, this thread is about taiwanese missiles, not about japanese so no excuses for bad behaivior! Back in the line private!;)

[KYli]

Thrust me, past is past...afull lot of can happen in 60 years...Nations once enemyes now allies and so on.
That i will agree.

Digging up possiple scenarios based on past misconducts are conspiracy theoryes, nothing more...
Not entirely true, past do affect persent but it depends on the situation. For now Taiwan and Japan will enjoy good relationship. but if situation change a bit things may be different. I don't think you know just few months back, KMT leaders have aboard a warship to inspect the area that have dispute with Japan. Many years ago, hundred of Taiwanese fishing ships join by HK and China people sail to the dispute island to protest against Japan. Majority of the Taiwanese are fond of Japanese now, but the dispute is not limited with history.

Any or other way around, this thread is about taiwanese missiles, not about japanese so no excuses for bad behaivior! Back in the line private!;)
I would not have agree more, but I don't see any Japan bashing maybe some people do make it into off topic including me.

So everyone back to topic, "TAIWAN MISSILES" .

[FuManChu]

If china do as you said, China will be laugable jokes in the world. The Pan-greens will never stop their intention no matter what.... China would do things to soften the relationship but it will not be foolish enough to believe that they could make a dfferent by giving up their missiles.

Did I call for these missiles to be destroyed? There's a difference between disarming and not pointing lots of bombs at someone. Is the US, UK, Russia's nuclear deterant any less devastating by them not targetting each other 24/7? China would quite obviously keep their missiles in reserve, ready to use later. China hardly needs them ready to go at a moment's notice, especially as it would take time to muster an invasion force anyway.

Why would China be laughed at?! This isn't some macho-hard-nut world where people shout "Chicken" if you back down from a fight. China would be lauded for trying to ease tensions. How could it reflect badly? You really think the Taiwanese people would think Chen "standing up" to the mainland would have done that, especially given that he never has talks with Beijing? If you do then I think you underestimate them. An act of friendship from the mainland by removing the missiles would boost the Pan Blues. But until something like that happens any other meaningless gestures like talking about fruits won't change anything.

[SampanViking]

Wow!! It has been busy here tonight.

Without posting loads of quotes lets try and answer some main points. Chen may try to do something with Japan like er ...... buy some missiles:confused:
but ultimately I think Japan realises it can probably get more out of China for not associating with Taiwan than it could ever get by associating with Chen. Not so far fetched, constructive talks have been going on behind the scenes this week between China and Japan.

As too China removing its missiles. This is something it will be doing in order to show appreciation with a more friendly Taiwanese Administration. I would not rule out a few very public deployment reductions, over the next couple of years in response to assurances or appeals from the KMT as to their good intentions when they regain office.

Ultimately though I think Chen has little room for maneouver in any meaningful sense, and dramatic gestures will only bring denunciation from even his best "friends" abroad. Yes I do not discount that Army Officers and Judges etc will consider their future prospects beyond the next two years very carefully.

As for any Cruise Missiles, do you seriously believe the US would reward Chen with such weapons; even if he could get the expenditure through the Pan Blue dominated legislature, after what he has said and done, against US wishes over the last month?

I really do not think so

[KYli]

Did I call for these missiles to be destroyed? There's a difference between disarming and not pointing lots of bombs at someone.
I know what you mean, but I don't see why China would want to relocate the missiles unless they could gain more meaningful objective. Unless they are sure conflict will be unlikely, removing the missies now will show weakness in front of chinese and pan-green Taiwanese.

Is the US, UK, Russia's nuclear deterant any less devastating by them not targetting each other 24/7? China would quite obviously keep their missiles in reserve, ready to use later. China hardly needs them ready to go at a moment's notice, especially as it would take time to muster an invasion force anyway.
We don't know how US, Russia and others do with their nuclear deteration, and they do have much more mean to deliver the nuclear than just missiles in the land. Nobody keep their missiles in reserve, it will take forever to get ready. Whether they might not load missiles with munition but US and Russia do have the ability to fire their missiles in matter of minutes. China do not have the ability.

Why would China be laughed at?! This isn't some macho-hard-nut world where people shout "Chicken" if you back down from a fight. China would be lauded for trying to ease tensions. How could it reflect badly? You really think the Taiwanese people would think Chen "standing up" to the mainland would have done that, especially given that he never has talks with Beijing? If you do then I think you underestimate them. An act of friendship from the mainland by removing the missiles would boost the Pan Blues. But until something like that happens any other meaningless gestures like talking about fruits won't change anything.
The USSR has gotten praise for what they did in 80, but what happened later. The world political only care about power and influence, it will better be tough than chicken. Many taiwanese might see good gestures in Chinese action, but the Pan-green will only see it as weakness. Do keep in mind Pan-green ultimate goal is independent which China will not allow. Secondly, things might go other way for China, maybe taiwanese will see it as a sign of soft stance on China so they will choose DDP for continued move toward independent.

The only meaningful peaceful settlement between China and Taiwan could only go both ways, until somebody in Taiwan willing to seriously talk to China. Any radical move from China will only mean weakness in front of chinese people.

[KYli]

Wow!! It has been busy here tonight.
Busy it is, but watch out. Golly is concern about this thing is off topic.

Without posting loads of quotes lets try and answer some main points. Chen may try to do something with Japan like er ...... buy some missiles:confused:
but ultimately I think Japan realises it can probably get more out of China for not associating with Taiwan than it could ever get by associating with Chen. Not so far fetched, constructive talks have been going on behind the scenes this week between China and Japan.

As too China removing its missiles. This is something it will be doing in order to show appreciation with a more friendly Taiwanese Administration. I would not rule out a few very public deployment reductions, over the next couple of years in response to assurances or appeals from the KMT as to their good intentions when they regain office.
I agreed, if Taiwanese administration show some sign of good will that could happen.

Ultimately though I think Chen has little room for maneouver in any meaningful sense, and dramatic gestures will only bring denunciation from even his best "friends" abroad. Yes I do not discount that Army Officers and Judges etc will consider their future prospects beyond the next two years very carefully.
I will never understimate Chen ability. Chen had time and time show his ability to playing with fire. When Chen won the election in 2000, I fellow Chen's new closely. My conclusion is Chen is very capable person. So when it is 2004 election, I have no doubt he will win when others think otherwise.

As for any Cruise Missiles, do you seriously believe the US would reward Chen with such weapons; even if he could get the expenditure through the Pan Blue dominated legislature, after what he has said and done, against US wishes over the last month?

I really do not think so
I think you are wrong here. Taiwan is builting their own cruise missiles without direct US help. There are nothing US could do or will do. Actually Taiwan already have shorter version of Cruise missiles that could hit targets at Fujian.

[taijisheng]

well this is almoust as stubid to say that when Finnish army has relationships to Bundeswehr, The Nazis are going to re-intervene into Russia. Comon, little sensibility may I ask? Thougth it much fit in chinese nationalistic rubbish to make up conspiracy theoryes over sixty years old event, I think the clever rest of us knows that the real world functions in bit different levels. So dont speed up this allready edgy threads up coming closure by flaming another japanese bashing contest.:off

I can only forgive you for your ignorence on this subject, do some more study next time please before calling ppl stupid about something you obviously know too little about.

[taijisheng]

I think china want to stop pointing those missles at taiwan too, but it can't happen while a pro-independace taiwanese persident is at power. When a KMT president comes to power, I am sure he only need to ask and it will be done.

[Gollevainen]

I can only forgive you for your ignorence on this subject, do some more study next time please before calling ppl stupid about something you obviously know too little about.


are you sure you wanna go out on that road:nono: :nono: ??
This thread is about Taiwan, an issue that can hardly be discussed civilized, and getting Japan dragged on it is just too dangerous.

So if it is said in the rules, Presented by so many examples, that we in this forum dont like things to go offtopic, expecially in threads considering Taiwan and Japan, So Yeas i preserve a rigth to call someone or something stubid. I dont know about you But at this point it cannot be nothing more than act of stubidity to ignore SO clear rules like that!

[SampanViking]

Hi tajisheng

Oh my word, lets not go there;)

Hi KYli

I will never understimate Chen ability. Chen had time and time show his ability to playing with fire. When Chen won the election in 2000, I fellow Chen's new closely. My conclusion is Chen is very capable person. So when it is 2004 election, I have no doubt he will win when others think otherwise.

Nor do I he is very wily, but if he has only minority support at home and no International Support, my question is what exactly can he do?

He has tried to develp links with other Regional countries (India most recently) but Chinese influence ensures these overtures are rebuffed. Japan ultimately does a huge amount of business with China and wants to resolve its differences. Interefering in Taiwan would be at least an "Unfriendly and Provocative Act" It just is not going to happen.

It not that he would not try to do anything, but I see him as a caged Tiger, no matter what he does he is still behind bars.

If you have any inklings do share.

I think you are wrong here. Taiwan is builting their own cruise missiles without direct US help. There are nothing US could do or will do. Actually Taiwan already have shorter version of Cruise missiles that could hit targets at Fujian.

Bombs are bombs and no doubt Taiwan has the technology to build them. Can Chen get them funded though as the LY probably needs to give its consent and Pan Blue now have a majority.
Domestic missiles are not such a worry, it is foriegn ones with all the indications of support that this supply implies.

[FuManChu]

Nobody keep their missiles in reserve, it will take forever to get ready. Whether they might not load missiles with munition but US and Russia do have the ability to fire their missiles in matter of minutes. China do not have the ability.

As I said, why is it necessary to be able to fire the missiles in minutes? It isn't.

The only meaningful peaceful settlement between China and Taiwan could only go both ways, until somebody in Taiwan willing to seriously talk to China.

Taiwan wants to talk to China, but Beijing insists that everyone agrees to its position first. China should be the one to be more flexible, not Taiwan.

Any radical move from China will only mean weakness in front of chinese people.

You'll have to excuse me, but I think that's bull. The missile build-up is a result of too many generals and politicians thinking with their dicks and not their brains. Pointing missiles at Taiwan makes the people there more angry towards the mainland. So perhaps they're scared now - that's not good. Scared people can react in unpredictable ways. Perhaps in the near future they might decide that now's the time to get their independence, before China has even more missiles.

If China wants Taiwan back, Beijing is going to have to take the stick from out of its arse and actually talk to whoever the elected leader in Taiwan is. Chinese politicians shake hands with people like Robert Mugabe, so it's a bit rich for them to complain about someone that is far more tame by comparison.

A gesture of friendship is a gesture of friendship. I don't buy macho crap about appearing "weak". It would be so easy to have another chat with Ma and then announce a "friendship movement" or whatever and reduce the number of missiles. The Blues and Beijing would get all the credit and the Greens would lose out. End of story.

[KYli]

Nor do I he is very wily but if he has only minority support at home and no International Support, my question is what exactly can he do?

He has tried to develp links with other Regional countries (India most recently) but Chinese influence ensures these overtures are rebuffed. Japan ultimately does a huge amount of business with China and wants to resolve its differences. Interefering in Taiwan would be at least an "Unfriendly and Provocative Act" It just is not going to happen.

It not that he would not try to do anything, but I see him as a caged Tiger, no matter what he does he is still behind bars.

If you have any inklings do share.
Chen could try to change the constitution, this is a very dangerous move because it might involve changing Taiwan name, sovereignty and flag. There are a lot of talk in the DPP and Pan green that 2008 would be best time to acheive indenpendent, because of the Olympic.

The another thing Chen could do is to hold a referendum of independent.

I can't find a link in english. I read most of these in the Liberty time which is the biggest Pan green newspaper.
.

Bombs are bombs and no doubt Taiwan has the technology to build them. Can Chen get them funded though as the LY probably needs to give its consent and Pan Blue now have a majority.
Domestic missiles are not such a worry, it is foriegn ones with all the indications of support that this supply implies.
Well, I doubt few hundred cruise missiles are much of threat, but Taiwan is trying to develop the longer range cruise missiles so they could hit shanghai and HK. Chen will not have problem to contain the funds, Pan-blue will not stop everything in the defense. This will make them look bad, and I think Chen can allocate the funds necessary for the project from annul defence budget.

As I said, why is it necessary to be able to fire the missiles in minutes? It isn't.
Why, because other countries have the ability to do it. China needs to have the missiles ready in time of conflict. You don't want the enemies to hit you first. Even other countries fire their missiles first, you could still retaliate quickly.



Taiwan wants to talk to China, but Beijing insists that everyone agrees to its position first. China should be the one to be more flexible, not Taiwan.
China have already become very flexible. If Taiwan have the intention of talk, Beijing is willing to set awy the position first. The three links are good example, china is saying that the business groups could led the talk first.



You'll have to excuse me, but I think that's bull. The missile build-up is a result of too many generals and politicians thinking with their dicks and not their brains. Pointing missiles at Taiwan makes the people there more angry towards the mainland. So perhaps they're scared now - that's not good. Scared people can react in unpredictable ways. Perhaps in the near future they might decide that now's the time to get their independence, before China has even more missiles.
Well, who know. Maybe the other way around too. The missiles might have prevent the Pan-green to use their brain instead of their dick. So they wouldn't do anything suicidal.

If China wants Taiwan back, Beijing is going to have to take the stick from out of its arse and actually talk to whoever the elected leader in Taiwan is. Chinese politicians shake hands with people like Robert Mugabe, so it's a bit rich for them to complain about someone that is far more tame by comparison.

China might have different opinion about Robert Mugabe than you have, but I do agree China need to talk to Taiwan. But I doubt Chen is a man that can be trust, he do not have a good reputation,

A gesture of friendship is a gesture of friendship. I don't buy macho crap about appearing "weak". It would be so easy to have another chat with Ma and then announce a "friendship movement" or whatever and reduce the number of missiles. The Blues and Beijing would get all the credit and the Greens would lose out. End of story.
I already said it is possible for China to reduce the missiles, but there should be some movement from both sides. So it will look as gesture of friendship not weakness. If Ma come to China, and show he is willing to talk. That could be a possibility but will Ma come to China before 2008.

[taijisheng]

are you sure you wanna go out on that road:nono: :nono: ??
This thread is about Taiwan, an issue that can hardly be discussed civilized, and getting Japan dragged on it is just too dangerous.

So if it is said in the rules, Presented by so many examples, that we in this forum dont like things to go offtopic, expecially in threads considering Taiwan and Japan, So Yeas i preserve a rigth to call someone or something stubid. I dont know about you But at this point it cannot be nothing more than act of stubidity to ignore SO clear rules like that!

I didn't say anything uncivillized, I went a bit off topic maybe but it was still about Taiwan, and I wasn't the one who mentioned Japan first nor the only one who mentioned it.

And really, save all these red text/shouting/mod power stuff, it's so childisch.
:rofl: :off

[FuManChu]

China have already become very flexible. If Taiwan have the intention of talk, Beijing is willing to set awy the position first.

Sorry, how is China's position flexible? It refuses to meet with Chen simply because it doesn't like his position. He would like to talk with Beijing, but the last thing he is going to do is say "ok, yes Taiwan is a part of China". He doesn't believe it, nor does he want it to be.

Normally in negotiation you talk with whoever is available and ignore the things you can't agree on until you are at least talking. Britain has held talks with Robert Mugabe, with Hamas in Palestine, Iran - and many other nasty regimes. We'd like nothing better than to throw them into a bottomless pit, but given that isn't possible we have been willing to talk to at least see if we can reach some sort of agreement.

Beijing, on the other hand, insists that Taiwanese politicians agree with its position first. That is not negotiation by any stretch of the imagination. It's about time the old farts on the mainland realised that a change in administration will not hasten unification one jot. They're wasting precious time by sulking just because Chen won't do as they say.

[Gollevainen]

And really, save all these red text/shouting/mod power stuff, it's so childisch.

showing off???

Red text is preserved only for moderation purposes so when You(or anyone else) see it in the 'field' expecially used by moderator, You migth consider that he is beeing moderating something at the moment. This forum has already good examples of what happens when members try to think themselves atop rules and thinking that they can go offtopic when ever they want and ignore moderators actions. Going offtopic isent a sin that migth earn your a warning in this forum, but ignoring moderators counsel and continue ass-rubbing after it will earn you a warning. So consider yourself warned. Now do this one more time and You get banned for good.

If you have proplems whit our moderation policy or rules, contact Webmaster or Dongfeng, not me, Im not intresed in whining over so simple matter like rules.

[KYli]

Sorry, how is China's position flexible? It refuses to meet with Chen simply because it doesn't like his position. He would like to talk with Beijing, but the last thing he is going to do is say "ok, yes Taiwan is a part of China". He doesn't believe it, nor does he want it to be.
How do China talk to Chen when he never keep his words? The last thing China want is to say"Taiwan and China are two countries. There are no point now for Chen and China have any sort of talk. China is very flexible because China decide that The Talk between Taiwan and China could be conclude by civilians organization. The government just work behind the scene. So nobody will try to make a fuss about one country or two countries stuff.


Normally in negotiation you talk with whoever is available and ignore the things you can't agree on until you are at least talking. Britain has held talks with Robert Mugabe, with Hamas in Palestine, Iran - and many other nasty regimes. We'd like nothing better than to throw them into a bottomless pit, but given that isn't possible we have been willing to talk to at least see if we can reach some sort of agreement.
I don't know. There are just as many negotiation that have make the condition first before any talk began.

Beijing, on the other hand, insists that Taiwanese politicians agree with its position first. That is not negotiation by any stretch of the imagination. It's about time the old farts on the mainland realised that a change in administration will not hasten unification one jot. They're wasting precious time by sulking just because Chen won't do as they say.
Taiwan, on the other hand, insists that China should admit the Taiwan as a county first. When everyone know it is impossible. If Chen is truely willing to talk, I think there are ways to set away the issue first. There have been many times that the talk are conduct by "middle man". So the pre-condition is not necessary, as long as both sides are truely trying to reach compromise. Chen has play the little game of him for so long, that every one have doubt in him. You just don't have people that one day say they are willing to talk, but the next day they do something that will offence you.

[SampanViking]

Hmm OK

Taijisheng

Friendly advice, just accept the moderation with good grace, you will not win and it is simply not worth it.

FuManChu

I disagree with your assesment of the respective parties. PRC have tried talking to Chen, have offered incentives to Chen and he rebuffed them. Direct flights at New Year have only happened last two years because they were negotiated through KMT and public supported them. Chen in my opinion is the problem.

Hi KYli

Chen could try to change the constitution, this is a very dangerous move because it might involve changing Taiwan name, sovereignty and flag. There are a lot of talk in the DPP and Pan green that 2008 would be best time to acheive indenpendent, because of the Olympic.

The another thing Chen could do is to hold a referendum of independent

This lies at the heart of my arguement. He can do all these things, but as long as the Opposition and UN/Major Nations do not recognise them, then outside of Chen's office they have not happened. They will have no effect, except make Chen a laughing stock. Nobody is going to upset the global apple cart for Taiwan, China is just too significant to their own prosperity to risk even an interuption.

He can hold a referendum, I think he would be unlikely to win it, but even if he did it could be dismissed as nothing more than an expensive opion poll.

Even with regard to the Reunification Council "ceasing to operate", the KMT could score a easy point if they wished too. Ceasing to operate is intended to signify "not abolished", well fine. The opposition are entitled to maintain a "Shadow Reunification Council" that is under no obligation to cease operating. Such a body funded by Taiwanese businesses on the Mainland, could indeed be very busy over the next two years - perhaps publicaly establishing a framework for discussions relating to a road map to reconciliation maybe. If the Pan Blue have something to offer whilst Pan Green are clearly going nowhere, then public opinion is easy to guess. People who are prepared to sacrifice their well being for an ideal or a notion, are extremists. Extremists are by definition a minority.

Finally understand the political mind, why be just the President of a small and isolated Island, when you can be a senior minister in one of the worlds most powerful nations? What do you think most politicians would choose?

This is the reality I predict for the next two years and I hope you can see why and agree with me.

Sometimes things just conspire to prove my point: jusy found this in Taiwans China Post.

Senator Warner questions U.S. position on Taiwan defense


2006/3/9
The China Post staff with agencies



An influential U.S. senator on Tuesday questioned whether America would defend Taiwan if "wrongful and inappropriate" actions from politicians here spurred a conflict with China.
Republican Sen. John Warner called a decision by President Chen Shui-bian last week to shut down a government body devoted to seeking unification with China "one of those unfortunate incidents that seem to continue to arise."

If a conflict with China was aided by "inappropriate and wrongful politics generated by the Taiwanese elected officials, I am not entirely sure that this nation would come full force to their rescue," Warner said at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing attended by U.S. military officials responsible for Northeast Asia.

Warner is the committee's chairman and one of the leading voices on military issues in Congress. Warner said he supported Taiwan building up its military in the face of growing Chinese military expansion, "but at the same time they've got to learn how to ... tone down their heated politics." China has repeatedly threatened war if Taiwan declares formal independence. The United States is Taiwan's only major ally.

Adm. William Fallon, head of the U.S. Pacific Command, acknowledged at the hearing that America is "trying to walk a thin line" in supporting China's efforts to act as a positive force in the region while also honoring U.S. obligations to defend Taiwan.

He said Chen's decision was "not particularly helpful." But he also noted China's "muted response" to Chen's move _ a change, he said, from Beijing's previous reactions to developments in Taiwan. China, Fallon said, is "taking this more in stride, rather than just reacting."

Generally, Fallon said tensions between China and Taiwan have "significantly reduced" from a year ago.

Chen's move to scrap the National Unification Council (NUC) strained Taipei's ties with Washington.

Chen promised in 2000 and 2004 that he would not abolish the council as part of his "five noes" policy. Washington views the policy as promises from Chen that he will not unilaterally change the status quo in the Taiwan Strait with moves towards independence.

But Taipei's de facto ambassador to the U.S., David Lee, also on Tuesday, downplayed reports of friction.

"Taipei is continuing to communicate with Washington... and a mutual understanding should be achieved very soon," Lee said.

Lee also said Warner told him about these concerns several months earlier, saying U.S. forces were busy with Iraq, Afghanistan and in fighting terror.

"Warner was concerned that if the situation in the Taiwan Strait took a turn for the worse, the U.S. might not have enough military force to enter into a conflict," Lee said.

Taipei is insisting it never "abolished" the council and it only "ceased to function", with no changes to the status quo.

The U.S. State Department last week issued a rare public statement requesting the Taipei authorities to clearly state they never abolished the council, citing reports quoting senior Taiwan officials as saying "abolish" and "cease to function" were the same thing.

Although the media company responsible for the report later clarified that these senior officials never said the two phrases were the same, Lee said the U.S. was still not satisfied. It was continuing to push for Taipei to openly state it never abolished the NUC.

He said Taipei hoped to settle the matter before Chinese President Hu Jintao's state visit to Washington in April.

Lee said the U.S. would not give opposition leader Ma Ying-jeou better treatment than ruling party politicians during Ma's coming Washington visit.

Analysts have speculated that the U.S. might try to show its displeasure with Chen by cold-shouldering his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and giving opposition politicians a warm welcome.

"Kuomintang (KMT) chairman Ma Ying-jeou will be given the same treatment ... as that accorded to Premier Su Tseng-chang when he visited the U.S. last July," Lee said. Su at the time was DPP chairman.

Lee said the U.S. side told him it had fixed principles and procedures for handling Ma's visit.

[KYli]

This lies at the heart of my arguement. He can do all these things, but as long as the Opposition and UN/Major Nations do not recognise them, then outside of Chen's office they have not happened. They will have no effect, except make Chen a laughing stock. Nobody is going to upset the global apple cart for Taiwan, China is just too significant to their own prosperity to risk even an interuption.
Well said, but unacceptable for the chinese government. UN or all the major nations will not recognize Taiwan, but if Chen manages to do all these. That will create condition for the chinese government to act or eat their own words. Chen don't need the international to accept Taiwan. Chen only needs a official and formal title of independent.

He can hold a referendum, I think he would be unlikely to win it, but even if he did it could be dismissed as nothing more than an expensive opion poll.

If he hold a referendum and win, China will have no chioce but to attack Taiwan. Otherwise Chinese government will have mounting pressure from chinese, which may even caused the downfall of the CCP.

Even with regard to the Reunification Council "ceasing to operate", the KMT could score a easy point if they wished too. Ceasing to operate is intended to signify "not abolished", well fine. The opposition are entitled to maintain a "Shadow Reunification Council" that is under no obligation to cease operating. Such a body funded by Taiwanese businesses on the Mainland, could indeed be very busy over the next two years - perhaps publicaly establishing a framework for discussions relating to a road map to reconciliation maybe. If the Pan Blue have something to offer whilst Pan Green are clearly going nowhere, then public opinion is easy to guess. People who are prepared to sacrifice their well being for an ideal or a notion, are extremists. Extremists are by definition a minority.
Pan Blue has failed many times to use the opportunity when the situations are in their favor. Pan Blue just don't want to do anything that could label them as traitors. Which make Pan Blue refused to take a strong stance on many issues. It is only when they lost the 2004 election, that the Panblue had no choice but do something risky. That is the main reason behind the visit to China, Pan Blue take the risk to gamble and win. But now Pan Blue are in far better shape than the Pan Green, they might become conservative again.

Finally understand the political mind, why be just the President of a small and isolated Island, when you can be a senior minister in one of the worlds most powerful nations? What do you think most politicians would choose?

Well, most nations will enbrace China, but there are always few will choose to do otherwise. And one of them is the most powerful nation in the world, that is more than enough for Taiwan.

This is the reality I predict for the next two years and I hope you can see why and agree with me.
I see what you mean, and I agree many things you said. But if Chen changed the constitution or hold the referendum, the war might be the only option left for Chinese government. Chinese government did not want the war or they are in any hurry for the unification, but they did draw the red line for Taiwan. If Taiwan cross it, China will have no chioce but to act.

Sometimes things just conspire to prove my point: jusy found this in Taiwans China.
Nice article, but we never know what is US true intention in the matter, either did we know what Taiwan or China stance on the issue. Let just hope, things will work it way out and peace will be everyone interest.

[FuManChu]

Sampan, the mainland has offered peanuts. Don't muck about with flights and fruit - talk about removing those missiles. That's what the Taiwanese public wants. I'm sure Chen can be extremely unhelpful, but the mainland are still the bullies in my opinion - most Taiwanese agree with that.

The last thing China want is to say "Taiwan and China are two countries."

Tell me where Chen has said that is his precondition for a visit. As far as I know he only wants China to not press the issue during talks. But China says "you must agree with us that Taiwan is a part of China first". He has no such demands, as far as I know. If he has said that China must recognise Taiwan first then please show me.

China is very flexible because China decide that The Talk between Taiwan and China could be conclude by civilians organization. The government just work behind the scene. So nobody will try to make a fuss about one country or two countries stuff.

Except that those people have no authority to agree upon anything. So what's the point? Show me what these talks have achieved of any real meaning to Taiwan. They exclude the democratically elected government so are always going to be highly limited in what they can produce.

There have been many times that the talk are conduct by "middle man". So the pre-condition is not necessary, as long as both sides are truely trying to reach compromise.

Chen has tried that - he reportedly gave a letter to one of the opposition leaders that visited the mainland, to hand to mainland politicians. But China is not interested.

Chen has play the little game of him for so long, that every one have doubt in him.

China has always refused to meet him because of his politics. It has nothing to do with him changing his attitude. That has never stopped China from talking to people before. They try to undermine people they simply don't want to talk to - I'm sure they accuse the Dalai Lama of being sneaky.

[KYli]

Sampan, the mainland has offered peanuts. Don't muck about with flights and fruit - talk about removing those missiles. That's what the Taiwanese public wants. I'm sure Chen can be extremely unhelpful, but the mainland are still the bullies in my opinion - most Taiwanese agree with that.
You could not have one side doing all the work. China already have the intention to talk, and make some minor adjustment. If Chen is willing to talk, he could find a way without involving any political issue. Most Taiwanese might not have a favoritable opinion of China, but they also will put blame on Chen not doing enough to resolve the dilemma.

Tell me where Chen has said that is his precdition for a visit. As far as I know he only wants China to not press the issue during talks. But China says "you must agree with us that Taiwan is a part of China first". He has no such demands, as far as I know. If he has said that China must recognise Taiwan first then please show me.
Chen refused to talk because he felt that the talk might have wrong implication that he had accept the one country idea. Chen had made clear he wanted to have "state to state" dialogue which is unacceptable to China.
You don't need to tell you that you could find it on many of his speech. China might have say that they want Chen to accept the one country system but there are a lot of talks that don't need to involve any government officials. Why Chen didn't allowed these kinds of exchange? Just give you a few examples, the fruits, the little three links, the spring travel and many others which had been quick sucessful without any political agendas involving.


Except that those people have no authority to agree upon anything. So what's the point? Show me what these talks have achieved of any real meaning to Taiwan. They exclude the democratically elected government so are always going to be highly limited in what they can produce.
You are kidding me. Chen is the main obstacle to any concrete talk. If he is serious about talk, he would not do all the crazy things to offense the china. Don't tell me about the democratically BS, this has nothing to do with the negociation. China and Taiwan could both send their representatives, and the representatives could report to each government. It might be complicate, but it is only way to do it without anyone trying to make an agendas about the issues. The talks will be slow, but do you think there are any better way. There could be many real achivement, the three links and tension will be lower.

Chen has tried that - he reportedly gave a letter to one of the opposition leaders that visited the mainland, to hand to mainland politicians. But China is not interested.
Right, he give a letter to China say who, nobody except him is talking about it. Even if he did, what is the point. Why he was mading a big fuss about it. It was an embrassment to that person and to China. Any politcial with a common sense will not show this letter in front of TV. Unless there was an agendas behind Chen action.

China has always refused to meet him because of his politics. It has nothing to do with him changing his attitude. That has never stopped China from talking to people before. They try to undermine people they simply don't want to talk to - I'm sure they accuse the Dalai Lama of being sneaky.
I had said it again and again. Chen had caused so many problems and he could not be trust. Why the Chinese government will be stupid enough to meet with him, and let Chen has the credit or try to make a agendas with it. For now, the only solution is the talk should be lead by representatives, so the mistrust and agendas in both side could be set aside.

[adeptitus]

If he hold a referendum and win, China will have no chioce but to attack Taiwan. Otherwise Chinese government will have mounting pressure from chinese, which may even caused the downfall of the CCP.


No, that is an assumption, The PRC leadership doesn't have anyone above them to say "you must invade today". Their "measured response" can range from diplomacy to a shower of ballistic missiles.

The Taiwan conflict exist today because Chang and Mao wanted to duke it out, and it spilled over to Taiwan. The islanders never asked to get involved, we imposed the conflict on them and they're still being screwed because of it.

The PRC has been around for over half a century without Taiwan, and it sure hasn't fallen because of it. If the Chinese leadership would be more accomodating and accept ROC on equal standing (nation-nation), negotiate a peace treaty (with POST-Chen government) - perhaps even a Chinese Commonwealth as equal partners, where people from both sides are free to trade, travel, and immigrate directly, it'd bring the Taiwanese people back into "Chinese family" better than branding them traitors and raining 1,000 missiles on their heads.

Taiwan's birth rate has fallen to the 1.2x per women range. I'd like to see the future immigrant population of Taiwan to come from China, and not Philippines and Indonesia. Just my $0.02.