How to Grab Taiwan in 7 hours [Archive] - China Defence Today Forum

Fairthought

12-17-2005, 05:52 PM

It will take lots and lots of money, and years of construction, but it could be done excepting an especially careful defense on the part of Taiwan.

The Secret Weapon: TBM's

That's right, TBM's (tunnel Boring machines). It sounds absurd, but hear me out on this before posting replies.

TBM technology has been around for decades. Major cities, like Chicago, have enormous storm sewers cut out by TBM's. The most famous TBM project was the British-French Channel Tunnel, or Chunnel. TBMS's can carve out tunnels hundreds of miles long, under seas, and wide enough for large vehicles to pass through.

China may have started this project over ten years ago, long enough to already reach Taiwan and set up an underground base (or bases). After a few years, these bases could support tens of thousands of troops.

By surreptitiously buying up some real-estate for constructing 'warehouses', China could create access points for their underground troops to spill out into Taiwan's surface and sieze many vital targets - TV stations, radio stations, Alarm stations, runways, harbors, wherever one could conceivably set up a warehouse nearby without stirring suspicions.

Any targets too remote or well defended for these surprise groundtroops to take will simply be hit by intermediate range ballistic missiles from the mainland.

Meanwhile, a tremendous airwar errupts, and Taiwanese aircraft will soon have their ammo depleted -but with no place to land and resupply! With the skies secure, the PLAN begins largescale amphibious invasion. Meanwhile the general population -which includes Taiwan's reserve forces- will not hear any alarms calling them to battle.

Assuming an attack at midnight, By the time most Taiwanese wake up in the morning the PLA would already control the beaches and the airwaves and calmly broadcast cartoons and soap operas as the remaining encirlced Taiwanese forces are either surrendering or getting blasted to smithereens.

The US and Japanese warplanes would have arrived earlier that night and realized that Taiwan is lost, and it would be too late to deploy aircraft carriers. While they mull over how to strike back at China, they are cautious not to take any rash military actions -they have to figure out how China won so easily.

Could it be a new superweapon? If so, details would be needed before sending stealth bombers into China -they may be sent to their doom.

As the West spends several days preparing their reports figuring out what the hell happened, China fortifies their island defenses, preparing for a heavy counterstrike.

Sound silly? sound crazy? That's what makes it work.

Criticisms:

1. You can't tunnel through this region as it is tectonically active. you'd trigger an eathquake and cave-in.

Answer: Taiwan is actually tectonically stable- much moreso than Japan. The biggest earthquake experienced there in recent years was off shore to their east and was only a 6.9. Japan by contrast has regularly experienced 7.0 earthquakes and larger, and this has not harmed Japan's huge underground/underwater tunnels. Japan has a very big one connecting the islands of honshu to hokaido (we're talking 1970's technology here) which is very similar to the one I'm proposing. Even in an earthquake zone, it is possible to re-inforce tunnels from cave-ins thus safe-guarding them provided your are not directly at the epicenter.

2. You can't excavate large underground caverns in Taiwan without the Taiwanese knowing it.

Answer: Actually, you wouldn't have to do much excavating. Taiwan was formed millions of years ago from volcanic activity. The volcanoes are extinct now, but they have left behind many large underground caverns ready for use.
In fact, the Taiwanese military already uses some of these underground caverns for their own underground military posts. These posts include hidden ammo and fuel depots, fortified command bunkers, and large caches of weapons. It would require careful prodding to make sure China does not cut into to an already occupied cavern. This could be simplified by obtaining highly sensitive intelligence on Taiwan's facilities. This could also be a great way to destroy/capture these fortified Taiwanese underground military bases. Once you've tunneled to these facilities, their defense is compromised.
Furthermore, even if a Taiwanese geophysical survey revealed a large Chinese underground base, the data would simply be interpreted as just another large natural underground formation. Even a 'newly discovered' cavern would be regarded as an old cavern that previous surveys just missed.

3. TBM's are loud machines that would certainly be detected by Seismographs.

Answer: Not true. The machines can use high pressure water for blasting and softening rocks and carrying away the sludge. The impact of TBM carving is very quiet.
The microquakes caused by the weight shift of so much rock is infinitesimal, and would be indistinguishable from the background noise of thousands of daily microquakes that are always occuring. All points on the earth's surface experience thousands of microquakes, seismologists consider this normal.

4. The massive amount of rock removed would have to come out somewhere in China, this would be impossible to hide from spy satellites.

Answer: This is easily solved by declaring the excavation entrance a state owned mine (coal mines, for instance, produce prodigious quantities of debris). Excess rock debris can be trucked to major landfill projects such as for an earthen dam.

Okay, what do you guys think?

BKulan

12-17-2005, 06:35 PM

well i don't believe it is impossible but just think of the incredible costs of such a project, i don't doubt that china can afford and it's an excellent way of transporting troops to Taiwan after taking it. Problem and Merit of it is than no one is crazy enough to do it, at least according to what most people is likely to think of the idea and if Taiwan reunite with China before tunnel is complete then it could be made into a civilian project.

Still cost, time and likeliness of problems during construction is probably what stops it from being done since it is a lot easier to construct from both ends simultaneously.

However if they really take Taiwan by means of tunneling then i'll buy you a meal, consider that a promise.

MIGleader

12-17-2005, 06:51 PM

one thing though..wouldnt taiwan notice the mass asembly of troops on the one end of the "Tchunnel"(taiwan/china tunel)? even so, these tunnels would allow for only modest transport of troops, and the troops would have to move from the warehouses to taiwanese bases, which requires great secrecy and coordination. however, if chinese commanders and thinktanks ever decided to work on this plan, it could certainly be developed into a plausible feat.

never bank your sucess on one secret weapon. taiwans new weapons deal seems as if it can help deter a pla invasion. the solution? get your own "hing plan". the pla should strike a massive deal with russia for 2 missle cruisers, 12 tu-22s, 10 zubr transports, 4 more kilos, and hundred of supersonic cruise missles. this deal will hinge on whether taiwan decides to pass its own wepaons deal. put short, if taiwan decides to buy more american weapons, china will buy more russian weapons. this may force even the dpp to think twice about their deal.

Kampfwagen

12-17-2005, 07:19 PM

No offense, but why does this sound like the plot from Goldfinger?

:rofl:

But seriously. It has quite a few logistical problems and money could be a serious problem for them. But I like your thinking. It's a plot so ridiculous, who would think anyone would do it? Again, no offence but it is the gist of how the secrecy is kept.

Besides, crazier plots have been conjoured by militaries just as compitent as China's. And some of them even worked!

PiSigma

12-17-2005, 07:31 PM

if you are digging a tunnel of that scale.. there's going to be a lot of workers.. and you can't keep everyone quiet.. someone is going to talk.. and there are plenty of spies in china working for taiwan. also the tunnel would only be able to transport infantry. since once they get to the other side can be moved easily to other locations on the island without detection. i guess when the war is over, can always use the tunnel as a civilian tunnel. but digging 100 miles is crazy... it will take forever. the english channel took 7 years and it is 31 miles long... taiwan strait is 100 miles long.. that means 21 years to build. and the english channel was being digged from both sides.. for this one.. you can only dig from china.. so double again, to 42 years.. by then, taiwan is probably unified already.

also the english channel tunnel cost about 10 billion pounds.. times that by 3 is 30 billion pounds.. or a lot of money that could be used to do a lot more stuff.

MIGleader

12-17-2005, 08:13 PM

two things, pisigma. the chunnel was being built in the 80s. digging and earth processing technologyhave coem along way since then. lessens learned from the chunnel project can be applied to the strait. also, china has far more workers, all of which are motivated and persistent, more so than their english and fench counterparts. its true for all factories, so why not with this?
the workers also can work for less pay, and less comforts. equipment is cheaper in china, so the cost will not be tripled. besides, this chunnel is not going to handle trains, just soem jeeps and troops, at most some ifv's.

spies? im guessing workers would be drafted form the country side, and guards would certainly moniter the work. much like the manhatten project.

PiSigma

12-17-2005, 09:03 PM

manhatten employed top scientists, these people are not the kind that's easily bribed. when you get workers, hundreds of thousands of them, it's easy to sneak a few spies into the workers (pretend to be workers) give them some money, and they'll spill everything. and it's kinda easy to notice when you got a few thousand workers going in and out. the machines used for the tunnel digging will be specialized, it's not just two arms and a hammer anymore. chances are the technology and machinery need to be imported, and special workers employed to maintain them.

trains will move troops faster and more effectively.. they'll also need to think of future plans after the attack. to convert the tunnel for civilan use.

BKulan

12-17-2005, 09:43 PM

PiSigma is right, keeping it all secret would be extremely hard. Especially if you need to import machinery.

Besides China don't have time to wait 25-40 years if they really intend on invading Taiwan

Sure you could speed it up by just placing a long row of concrete blocks on the bottom instead of building under it but it still would take forever and keeping it quiet would be close to impossible.

Still my attitude to it is like before: Good luck with making the plan a complete success.

MIGleader

12-17-2005, 10:03 PM

The_Zergling

12-18-2005, 02:08 PM

Taiwan is actually tectonically stable- much moreso than Japan. The biggest earthquake experienced there in recent years was off shore to their east and was only a 6.9. Japan by contrast has regularly experienced 7.0 earthquakes and larger, and this has not harmed Japan's huge underground/underwater tunnels. Japan has a very big one connecting the islands of honshu to hokaido (we're talking 1970's technology here) which is very similar to the one I'm proposing. Even in an earthquake zone, it is possible to re-inforce tunnels from cave-ins thus safe-guarding them provided your are not directly at the epicenter.

Sorry to burst your bubble, but Taiwan is actually NOT tectonically stable. The biggest earthquake Taiwan experienced recently was 921, measuring 7.3 on the richter scale. What's more the epicenter was in Central Taiwan. The quake caused roughly 2000 deaths, 8500 injured. I walked around the streets of Taichung speechless, just looking at the destructionn, and I hadn't even seen the bodies yet. And Taichung's damage wasn't even close to Nantou or other areas.

Taiwan regularily has small earthquakes that are noticeable (i.e. buildings rocking gently) and generally most of the epicenters are in the center of Taiwan.

I can't believe that so many of you guys posted on this thread without the slightest information regarding Taiwan's geography? This isn't an insult but if you want to discuss a hypothetical scenario I believe it is best to understand as much as possible about the area in which it would take place. Granted I don't think anyone else other than myself in this thread have lived in Taiwan before, but to put it bluntly, it's all geography. Taiwan is NOT stable, and that fact alone might negate this entire strategy.

Ender Wiggin

12-18-2005, 07:21 PM

No it wouldn't, because Japan's on tunnel projects as mentioned originally weren't effected overly much by its own earthquakes.

MIGleader

12-18-2005, 09:08 PM

the soil in the english channel is far from stable. it tends to slide the instant u try to move it. not to mention the weather over the english channel can get much nastier than taiwan strait. taiwan is relatively stable compared with japan, and a small quake in the stright does not mean the entire area will be affected.

heres the jist: taiwan lies on the meeting point of the coastal plate and phillipine sea plate.most of the movement is actually on land, and the taiwanese island would most likely be affected the most by a minor quake. the strait would remain relatively calm

zergling, where u live doesnt affect how techtonically active taiwan is. ive lived in areas much opposite to taiwan, and there were never any disturbances. the primary plate movement is under taiwan itself, not the seas around it.

The_Zergling

12-18-2005, 10:29 PM

It appears I may have misread the meaning of the original post, and if so, I apologize for any hard feelings anyone felt from my post.

I interpreted the number 1 point as saying, "Taiwan doesn't have common earthquake activity" when that is not true.

I simply pointed out the 921 earthquake to correct the "facts" about Taiwan's most recent earthquake, which was a 7.3.

If the point was mostly regarding the area in the Taiwan strait and not Taiwan itself, then Migleader is correct (I think) that it wouldn't affect the feasability of the tunnel. However, I don't understand when you noted that you lived in "areas much opposite to taiwan" and you didn't feel any disturbances. Of course you wouldn't feel any major disturbance from an earthquake in Taiwan, because the plate movement is under Taiwan itself as you correctly noted... so how does this come off as me saying Taiwan's earthquake movement is related to my location?

SampanViking

12-19-2005, 08:53 AM

Sorry Zergling and Mig Leader, its a good imaginative idea and I would never want to criticise anyone for exercising their reasoning and imagination, but I have to side on PiSigma on this one.

I was involved in the Drilling Industry during the Eighties and so kept a close watch on the Chunnel (Channel Tunnel) project. The biggest difficulty after those quoted by PiSigma, is that; even allowing for Technological development of TBM (probably not all that great - I cannot think of too many mega projects capable of funding this development in last 15 years), Rock Strata remains Strata, just as it has always done.

YOu cannot confuse a tunnel entrance with a mine - they are very and obviously different. A large Tunnel on the Fujianese coast would be very visable and very obvious. Determining its function would take seconds!!!!

The alternative would be to place it deep inland (perhapse disguised as a Water diversion scheme) but then you have to bore all that extra distance before you leave your own territory - a massive time and monetary cost!!!!

Finally, nobody has considered ventilation, A massive tunnel needs substantial ventilation. With Chunnel, these are large structures that break the water surface and are marked navigational hazards in the English Channel. You would need similar structures (many of them) along the Tiawanese Straits and I suspect, that they might be a bit of a dead giveaway (OK OK you could try and disguise them of Oil & Gas Test drilling Rigs, but a) Rights will probably be contested and draw unwanted attention by itself, b) If their is no known Oil & Gas reserves in the Straits - espically if the Rock Strata configurations are wrong, then this will raise eyebrows, c) That they are all in a Straight Line heading from Fujian to Formosa will definatly riase both eyebrows simultaneously.

A good effort non-the-less, keep the brain moving and the ideas coming, sooner or later you might just hit on the very thing........

The_Zergling

12-19-2005, 09:16 AM

Um... I am actually on the side that argues that such a tunnel would be nearly the definition of impossible... I like cool ideas, but this is just kinda... far out.

What I was should have said more clearly was in that particular aspect I didn't have a problem with the tunnel plan, though it would meet countless others that would be extremely hard to ratify given our current technology, especially without Taiwan finding out.

That said, your post was very informative, and I think you kind of KO'ed it with the ventilation observation...

Fairthought

12-19-2005, 01:19 PM

Thank you Guys for some very good counterpoints.

SanPanViking,

Can you provide some details on these ventilation structures?

How many of them are there?

How far apart are they spaced?

What is their size?

I wonder how much money it would take to build these ventilation structures underground (adjoining the tunnel) and just have air pumped into them through mile long airducts. Of, course this would now add the expense of building more infrastructure to the project. But additional gas pipelines along the length of the tunnel are actually quite useful for a supplying a forward deployed military base fuel. Specifically if such an underground base is going to have APC's, Trucks, and maybe even Tanks. Since it may be necessary to build pipelines anyway, why not an airduct?

In fact, it doesn't need to be an airduct (which would need high pressure and a very large cross-sectional area to adequately ventilate such a long tunnel). Better would be liquified Nitrogen and Oxygen pipes that would feed specialized evaporator pumps which releases air all along the tunnel. Liquid oxygen may be expensive, but liquid Nitrogen is actually quite cheap and easy to manufacture and air is mostly Nitrogen anyway.

Ventilation is a big problem for road tunnels, as cars are big polluters. But the tunnel I'm suggesting for military use would be a rail tunnel, not a road tunnel, and preferably an electrified line, so noxious gas emmissions in the tunnel would be much reduced. If fact, if the trains are airtight, you wouldn't need any ventilation at all! Only the underground bases in Taiwan would need ventilation, and this would come from overhead warehouses feeding them air pipes.

Besides, a ware house would be a great cover for this projet, just claim to be dealing primarily with ballast distribution, and you can disguise alot of tunnel debris.

I understand that any such 'Chunnel project' to Taiwan is prohibitively expensive, but I am not so sure it is beyond what China can afford. After all, China already spends billions of dollars worth just on missile production for use on Taiwan.

Also, thank you Zergling for correcting me about Taiwan's largest recent earthquake.

But how long ago was this 921 earthquake? Do you know if seismologists consider it a 'once in a hundred year event'?

If it occurs less frequently than that then it has a very small chance of ever even affecting such a project, as it doesn't take that long to build and utilize such a tunnel for a war.

All the same, Japan has a number of underground tunnels for car and train transport -including numerous undewater tunnels, and regularly experiences earthquakes over 7.0 every few years (including a 7.9 monster in 1968).

Japan has underwater tunnels connecting the main island of Honshu to the Kyushu island to the south (in a highly earthquake prone region). This includes the Hokuriku rail tunnel (8.6 miles long) which has been around since the Korean War (rebuilt in 1962). There are also other tunnels linking the islands, notably The New Kanmon tunnel (18.7 km), Here are links:

http://www.jrtr.net/jrtr11/history.html
http://www.britannica.com/eb/article-9044577

It should be noted the New Kanmon tunnel was the world's first underocean tunnel, built in the year 1936-1944!!

Also, Japan does have the world's biggest underwater tunnel, the Sei Kan Tunnel. As I mentioned, it connects the island of Honshu to Hokaido to the north. Here is a linK:

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/buildingbig/wonder/structure/seikan.html

As you can read, it cost Japan $7 billion dollars. It was started in 1964, and not completed until 1988. It had a major flooding accident that caused a significant delay. Another reason for the long time of construction was the loose volcanic soil which made standard TBM's unviable. Altogether, it consists of two parallel rail tunnels, carrying three lines each.

Here is another article about Sei Kan tunnel:

http://web-japan.org/atlas/architecture/arc02.html

Of course, Japan does have many subway tunnels, and these are hardened to resist earthquakes. Other earthquake cities, such as Los Angeles and San Francisco have recently given the go-ahead for subway construction:

Here is a source regarding Los Angeles:
http://www.kesq.com/Global/story.asp?S=4257967&nav=9qrx

what is interesting about Los Angeles, is the debate of building an 11-mile subway that passes to within just ONE MILE of a fault line.

And here is a source regarding San Francisco:
http://www.cbs5.com/localwire/localfsnews/bcn/2005/11/18/n/HeadlineNews/EARTHQUAKE-SAFETY/resources_bcn_html

What is interesting about the San Francisco subway system is the planned construction of the TransBay Tube (construction begins 2007). This subway will be underwater in one of the most tectonically active faults in the world. And engineers say they can strengthen it to withstand a major earthquake to gaurantee passenger safety.

Aside from the major concern of earthquakes for tunnels, there is the secondary effect of liquefaction. This is where loose, water saturated soil liquifies when experiencing vibrations caused by a nearby earthquake. This is common for volcanic and alluvial soils. Here is a an example of liquefaction in a japanese laboratory:

http://www.mlit.go.jp/english/white-paper/unyu-whitepaper/1995/image/1995_P1_chap2_picture06.jpg

Here is article from a town in British columbia, Canada, that has to rebuild a strengthened tunnel to withstand possible soil liquefaction in the event of an earthquake:

http://www.thenownews.com/issues05/123105/news/123105nn6.html

This tunnel will not be a rail tunnel, nor a road tunnel, but a water supply tunnel (it just a small town, with a small budget after all). But it does show there exists technology for tunnels to be strengthened to withstand liquefaction.

Please continue responding to this thread, I don't quite believe it is dead yet, and I find the ideas being passed around to be truly fascinating (both criticisms and solutions).

MIGleader

12-19-2005, 03:32 PM

the cost of this project would be exorbitant, but i think i might have a good way to pay for. china could remove up to 70-80% if the missles pointed at taiwan, and this alone would save several million dollars annualy. several other military cuts could be made to further fund the project, such as a reduction of more army troops.

even if the region is relatively stable, a quake stilll has a chance of dmaging the project. seeing how this may run a decade or more, that is more than likely. if that happens, the entire scheme cover is blown. millions of dollars wasted. quite a gamble.

a less risky idea would be to build a mole to taiwan, but i dont see how that could go un detected by anyone.

The_Zergling

12-19-2005, 07:11 PM

The 921 earthquake occured in 1999. Though Taiwn is very active, earthquakes of that magnitude are (thankfully) rare so I don't think earthquakes would render the project completely infeasible. (Again, speaking on this point only)

adeptitus

12-20-2005, 05:12 PM

Having lived in Taiwan, I can personally testify that the place is earthquake prone. Some time ago the World Bank produced a report to show the most dangerous place to live by natural disasters, such as floods, earthquakes, and typhoons. Taiwan took #1 place with 73% of its population threatened by at least 3 natural disaster types, versus 90% of people in Bangladesh, Nepal, Haiti, and Malawi are threatened by at least 2 natural disasters.

Can a tunnel be built from Fujian to Taiwan? I think so, it won't be easy. It'd be costly and probably take 20-30 years to build if tunnels were dug from BOTH SIDES to meet in the middle. Definately not a "quicky" PRC invasion scenario. LoL.

MIGleader

12-20-2005, 06:21 PM

:roll: 20-30 years? :roll:
to slow. things have come along way since the chunnel, and i have listed in one of my posts several resons why the building should take half the time.

as a matter of fact. digging could be done from both sides. china can open a warehouse?excavation company in taiwan, and fly hundreds of workers to there. that way, work can be done from both sides,doubling speed.

patriot

01-03-2006, 05:43 PM

If things are proceeding the speed they are now. It's going to take at least 15-20 years for China to have a successful invasion of China. If U.S is going to be involved militarily, they China have to require an additional 30-40 years to prepare for a war with U.S

woodygar

03-13-2006, 03:57 PM

bd popeye

03-13-2006, 05:09 PM

When i was thinking about how China could take taiwan i was thinking about this method. I think its chinas best chance for the near future of taking the islands. Even if taiwan found out about a dig how could they destroy it? fire too close to china and its an act of war. China could say its a port project or whatever. Destroy the tunnel in taiwans half and the chinese can just redirect and re-route to wherever they choose. I was also thinking of China reclaiming land filling in the ocean. In Hong Kong they have reclaimed land that was water almost to join the island back to the mainland. This method is far cheaper and how do you stop the engineers from building a broad stretch of road towards your country, which most of the world agrees isthe same country. :china:

Welcome to the forum!:) Be sure to introduce yourself in the intro thread
http://www.sinodefenceforum.com/showthread.php?t=845..And read the Forum rules.

Are you talking about filling in the straits between the PRC and ROC??:confused: If so that would be an engineering feat unequaled in human history. A near impossible task. I don't think it could be done.

I hope that some day the ROC and PRC unite in a peaceful way.:china:

MIGleader

03-13-2006, 05:34 PM

A few years ago, people thought landing on the moon was impossible. In the 1800's, they thought flying was impossible. You'd be amazed at waht dedication and technological advnaces can do(along with a billion $ budget).

DPRKPTboat

03-13-2006, 05:48 PM

I don't think its possible to take Taiwan in this amount of time. It would require a massive military operation on the scale of Operation Desert Storm or Operation Iraqi freedom. Probably larger. And I don't think that is within reach of China. And don't forget Taiwan is capable of defending itself. A huge, noisy device like a TBM would be easily detected and destroyed when it breaks the surface. All the ROCA has to do is track it through the vibrations it causes, and then destroy it as it reaches the surface. And lets not forget that most Taiwanese weapons are more advanced than Chinese weapons.

netspider

03-13-2006, 06:00 PM

As a reference, similar tunnel ideas were adopted by DPRK in prepration for a sudden attack on south korea.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/dprk/kpa-tunnels.htm

DPRKPTboat

03-13-2006, 06:06 PM

As a reference, similar tunnel ideas were adopted by DPRK in prepration for a sudden attack on south korea.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/dprk/kpa-tunnels.htm

Apparently they dicovered a few more of those tunnels in the DMZ recently. If you read that thread, that proves my point. The South Korean military was able to detect the vibrations caused by the tunnel excavations, which pretty much foiled the North's invasion plan. I think it will be a similar scenario if China uses the same tactic. Not much chance of a surprise attack there.

FuManChu

03-13-2006, 07:27 PM

Edit: Duplicated content removed.

PiSigma

03-13-2006, 07:41 PM

filling up the ocean from mainland to taiwan will cost way too much.. just transporting dirt will cost billions, not to mention to economy, and evironmental impact it will have. a lot of chinese shipping does go through the taiwan strait. if you block it off.. they'll have to go around.. making it much more expensive. what about all the fishermen in fujian?? you build one of those things, all the fish will be gone, a lot of people's lives will be destroyed

mjleo

03-14-2006, 12:22 AM

DPRKPTboat

03-15-2006, 02:44 PM

Very impressive theory Fairthought. I wonder if the top think tanks in the US/Taiwan/Japan ect. have thought about it...

Anyway, another factor to consider would be what the chinese are drilling through. If it's soft soil, they would have to deal with flooding, structural and various other issues. If it's hard rock, it could take considerably longer than 30 years and the budget will be astronomical.

If china can pull it off, it'll definately go in the books with the great wall and other great Chinese accomplishments.

Except it probably took hundreds of years to build the great wall. And it wasn't successful anyway. Just like any project to build a highway under or above the sea. And 7 hours is definetly not long enough for that. So its no good expecting it to happen.

FuManChu

03-15-2006, 06:23 PM

This idea sounds like the kind of hair-brained scheme an old Communist would have thought up because they believed their own propaganda.

It is an innovative idea, but I am 99.9999999999999999999999999% certain that it would fail miserably and cost more than the current Chinese defence budget. The Channel Tunnel cost £10 billion and took over seven years.

Mod Edit PiSigma: you don't need to be communist to believe in your own propaganda, remember Hitler?? try to stay away from political bashing, just because you are not communist, doesn't mean it's bad.

Err, where did I say you had to be Communist to believe your own propaganda? Anyway - never mind.

DPRKPTboat

03-16-2006, 03:00 PM

This idea sounds like the kind of hair-brained scheme an old Communist would have thought up because they believed their own propaganda.

It is an innovative idea, but I am 99.9999999999999999999999999% certain that it would fail miserably and cost more than the current Chinese defence budget. The Channel Tunnel cost £10 billion and took over seven years.

Mod Edit PiSigma: you don't need to be communist to believe in your own propaganda, remember Hitler?? try to stay away from political bashing, just because you are not communist, doesn't mean it's bad.

Yeah, that idea of filling up the Taiwaneses straight sounds like something from the world of cartoons rather than the real world. Whoever thinks that is going to happen has cleary watched Team America to much.

chopsticks

03-18-2006, 08:56 AM

swimmerXC

03-18-2006, 03:25 PM

Please stay away from Japan or USA bashing topics....

The_Zergling

03-18-2006, 07:32 PM

Well when I saw this topic the first thought that came into my mind was, "Who the hell thought this was plausible?" but I decided to turn on my suspension of disbelief and play along...

I don't want to be the kind of guy who goes, "That's impossible" and then eat his words afterwards when it really gets pulled off...

But seriously, the logistics would be a nightmare, and you'd have to have pretty much a full understanding of the land below the sea in the Taiwan Strait in order to pull it off. Hell, we know more about the moon than we do the bottoms of our oceans.

bd popeye

03-19-2006, 06:28 PM

if china were to reunite taiwan by force, usa won't be able to stop them. they won't and can't. ther navy would be obliterated in an instant. japan would prob piss ther pants if usa were to use them as a base too haha...

Chopsticks..Just how would the PLA stop the US if the US assisted in the defense of Tiawan?

Tes the PRC missiles pointed at the ROC(Taiwan) Yep they
do. Trouble is by their own admission the PLA missiles have very poor
targeting. they lack GPS.. correct? It is felt that the PLA
does have about 20-25 ICBM's pointed at the USA. The actual figure is
unknown.

While the PLA has numerous misiles the quality is unknown. The PLA has no missile defense sheild. They do possess thousands of AAA and SAM sites od various types....

Right now as it stands ..the PLAN would lose Vs. the USN. But believe you me
they would take put some heavy damage on USN ships and aircraft. I do not think the USN could not shoot down all those anti-ship missiles. a few would get through.

The PLAN lacks;
training..big time..
CV's
LPH/LHD type ships
LPD
ASW
modern torpedos
ASW helo
deticated maritime helos
logistics..(only three unrep ships)
Foward bases
limited airborne maritime patrol

But they are building ships at a very rapid rate. They do have
excellent coastal patrol ships and boats.

I do not intend to under estimate the PLA forces. They have a lot of
weapons and personnel. However the quality of equipment and training of
it's forces are in question. They are a force to be reckoned with.

tphuang

03-19-2006, 07:26 PM

hehehe, I got a perfect way to stop the Americans. Just drug the president and half of the congress and senate, so that they vote down the initiative to send the troops over. By the time they wake up, bam, it's already over.

Oh wait, that's not possible. Seriously, this entire China threat thing is just propoganda and nothing more.

The_Zergling

03-19-2006, 08:58 PM

Seriously, this entire China threat thing is just propoganda and nothing more.

I agree that the "China threat" tactic's purpose is more to give the public something to fear, to turn attention away from internal issues, but it's not ALL propoganda. Hell, nearly all governments do this. That is not to say that China's growing military strength is something that the US should/would dismiss, however, and I wouldn't say it's all propoganda. Depends on who you're talking to, though.

As it stands the PRC probably woud lose in an all-out conflict (no nukes) against the USA. However, to other surrounding countries the uneasiness that accompanies China's military rise is no doubt greater than that of the US. Technically the US could just stay out of the conflict, if it wanted to, but for other countries that could possibly have trade routes that could be disrupted or controlled by China easily, the threat is more pronounced, since they have nowhere to go.

I'd agree with Popeye that China has lots of missiles, but their quality probably has something to be desired. This brings up a problematic factor if China would actually use them against Taiwan. Some/most of the missiles probably wouldn't hit their targets, instead causing unwanted civilian casualties, and might actually prolong the war by strengthening Taiwanese resolve from Chinese invasion. Someone who felt unification was fine might change their mind once it gets personal and they lose someone/something they cherish.

Then again, China's always been very secretive regarding military issues, so perhaps the missiles are actually better than we give them credit for. That's a good and bad thing, I suppose.

bd popeye

03-20-2006, 02:49 PM

Oh wait, that's not possible. Seriously, this entire China threat thing is just propoganda and nothing more.

Amen! It's just an excuse by neo-cons to keep those defense dollars rolling in. All these "military experts" in the US just spout the same crap year after year. The last couple of years it's been the PRC military build up. I've read exaggerated claims of the PLA military proweress. The PLA has come a long way. I think in the next 10-15 years they will be a military "super-power" That's a fact.

Right now today the PRC is building up towards super-power status.

:off
One more thing. I've said it before and I will post it again. You young fellows in this forum are just so outstanding, well read and intelligent.(Unlike some of my yahoo groups) You guys use your heads for something other than a hat rack.

The moderators generally keep all the participants..including me in line. That way we keep these discussions civil and informative.

You guys are da' bomb!

hallo84

03-20-2006, 04:59 PM

Some people are dissmissing or underestimating the capabilities of PLA's amphib forces. There is a report on CDF by xinhui analyzing the total man power and assets owned by PLA and the amount of forces PLAN can affort to transport to establish a beach head. The results totalled up some 50000 men and some 800 vehicles with only military assets. That figure alone is a pretty respectable first assult. PLA has its showcase 15th airborn division that can be used as a distraction to facilitate the invasion forces.

Taiwan is by nature is very hard to attack due to land formation.
But this also deters defence measure available to the defending taiwanese. Getting the MBTs form north to south of the Island is it self a immense task. Defense mobilization is not an easy jobon Taiwan and could take days. It could mean an airdrop can effectively cut off reinforcements to the beach head and while the PLA amphib forces storm on.

The element of surprise is not really apparent here as the preparation for the crossing alone would alarm the ROCA of an immanent invasion but I doubt any of you know the time it takes for division level mobilization in ROCA. Usually it takes upwards of 72 hours in any army. That would means while PLA is prepared and have the advantage of a head start.

The missiles are more of an psycological weapon than an tactical one. Imagine what it would fell like if you were under 10 hours of continous bombarment from waves of rockets and missiles. Yes PLA have long range rockets that have enought range to reach Taiwan.

DPRKPTboat

03-20-2006, 05:06 PM

The_Zergling

03-20-2006, 05:41 PM

Taiwan is by nature is very hard to attack due to land formation.
But this also deters defence measure available to the defending taiwanese. Getting the MBTs form north to south of the Island is it self a immense task. Defense mobilization is not an easy jobon Taiwan and could take days. It could mean an airdrop can effectively cut off reinforcements to the beach head and while the PLA amphib forces storm on.

The element of surprise is not really apparent here as the preparation for the crossing alone would alarm the ROCA of an immanent invasion but I doubt any of you know the time it takes for division level mobilization in ROCA. Usually it takes upwards of 72 hours in any army. That would means while PLA is prepared and have the advantage of a head start.

Hi, welcome to the forum, not bad for a first post!

Indeed, Taiwan's geography gives it an important advantage in defending against China, for one thing China must cross the strait, expending more resources and time while all Taiwan has to do is dig in.

Regarding mobilization... here's something I got from another message board, OrBat is from 2004~2005.

Since unit designation and location are classified information in the ROC military, it is difficult to present an entirely accurate ORBAT. The following was pieced together from news reports and other non-classified materials. It is by no means complete and should be considered speculative at best.

6th Army - Northern Taiwan

106, 116, 118, 152, 153, 176, 178 Infantry Brigades
269 Motorized Infantry Brigade
351 Armored Infantry Brigade
542, 543 Armor Brigades
21 Artillery Command
53 Engineer Group
73 Signals Group
33 Chemical Warfare Group

8th Army - Southern Taiwan

103, 108, 117, 136, 137 Infantry Brigades
298 Motorized Infantry Brigade
395 Armored Infantry Brigade
564 Armor Brigade
43 Artillery Command
54 Engineer Group
39 Chemical Warfare Group

10th Army - Central Taiwan

102, 104, 107, 157, 169, 192 Infantry Brigades
200 Motorized Infantry Brigade
373 Armored Infantry Brigade
586 Armor Brigade
58 Artillery Command
52 Engineer Group
74 Signals Group
36 Chemical Warfare Group

Hua-Tung Defense Command - Eastern Taiwan

128, 129 Infantry Brigades

Penghu Defense Command

163, 168 Infantry Brigades
503 Armor Brigade
101 Amphibious Reconnaissance Battalion (1 company)

Kinmen Defense Command

119, 127, 158 Infantry Brigades
584 Armor Brigade
Artillery Command
101 Amphibious Reconnaissance Battalion (2 companies)

Matzu Defense Command

193, 194 Infantry Brigades
Artillery Command
101 Amphibious Reconnaissance Battalion (1 company)

Aviation and Special Warfare Command

601 (norther), 602 (central), 603 (southern) Air Cavalry Brigades
862 Special Warfare Brigade

Tungyin

195 Infantry Brigade
101 Amphibious Reconnaissance Battalion (1 company)

If this is accurate, it is obvious that there are armor units stationed all over the west coast, and unless they were all wiped out, transporting additional units from the north should be largely unnecessary. Note that missile command has not been listed as ROCA, it was split into a separate group a few years ago.

hallo84

03-20-2006, 05:56 PM

Even with the element of surprise, I don't think China would be able to take Taiwan within 7 hours, due to various logistical, manpower and enemy army related factors.
And I don't think 7 hours of missile bombardment would cause the Taiwanese to surrender. As T1000/Vincelee said in one of the discussions in the archives, it would probably provoke resistance from both the Taiwanese military and the population. And be careful what you post, it might bring that Vince guy back.....

No I don't think Taiwan could be tken in 7 hours either...
This is just some media flick stated bt Taiwanese madia. But PLA is ready to outbleed Taiwan in a long standoff, PLA docterine have shown that in many cases. Will taiwanese accept the losses?

No I don't think the missile bombarment would untimately achieve the effect PLA wanted but at the time the Missiles were the only creditable detterrence PLA can whip up...

hallo84

03-20-2006, 10:49 PM

Hi, welcome to the forum, not bad for a first post!

Indeed, Taiwan's geography gives it an important advantage in defending against China, for one thing China must cross the strait, expending more resources and time while all Taiwan has to do is dig in.

Thanks it's not my first forum experience...

China have the resource and repeadily shown the determination to take Taiwan if necessary. Yes the strait crossing will employ all that PLA have in its inventory. But the chinese have started to prepare for an chance that Taiwan does sperate or what Beijing see as seperatist motion. China is also stating an emergency crude reserve. actual implimentation of modernizations in the PLAN although the amphib ability wasn't of too much focus as beijing still consider soft power as the prime option. non-the-less these are some clear indication of chage from vocal threats to actually considering implementing force as an option.

Regarding mobilization... here's something I got from another message board, OrBat is from 2004~2005.

If this is accurate, it is obvious that there are armor units stationed all over the west coast, and unless they were all wiped out, transporting additional units from the north should be largely unnecessary. Note that missile command has not been listed as ROCA, it was split into a separate group a few years ago.

Thanks for the Info. See here is my question. How many are NCO? How many of these units are actually combat ready and on standby? If not how long does it take to mobilize these men? I've been told usually it's 72hours for preparation in division levels and the Taiwan counterpart of a brigade is roughly equal.

I'd say the PLA has a clear head start even if Taiwan becomes aware of PLA intension in the starting hours.

The_Zergling

03-20-2006, 11:28 PM

hallo84

03-21-2006, 12:00 AM

Well, honestly speaking I do not have any accurate information on how many are combat ready at any given moment. It's been a while since I've asked my friends/relatives who have done service, but to my understanding it's somewhere between 48~72 hours. It's true that the PLA will have the benefit of the first strike, but after that Taiwan's proximity to the battlefield will make it easier to reinforce the troops that were hit in the first wave.

Unless China can maintain a constant flow of troops and material across the strait, Taiwan will be able to mobilize additional forces in addition to the units that were already on standby quicker, giving a small but important advantage.

If even half of the Orbat you mentioned are on active duty... which to say is an optimistic guess then PLA would still have a the quantity advantage. The 15th airborn and many other PLA airborn divisons as I mentioned could be deployed to tie up reserves and preventing them from reinforcing the beaches. The critical question being if PLA can overrun the beach defences quickly to established a defendable beach head for further troop and resource flow. If in the process they capture undamaged port facility then all the quicker as now civilian ships can also be mustered up as transports. PLA generally have used civil cargos as transports even during their evercises...

I believe PLA could theoretically achieve this with a stroke of luck... abit some loss of lives in the process.

Certainly won't be the rediculous 7 hours...

Choy

04-09-2006, 07:33 PM

I have a way to grab Taiwan, but not in 7 hours, maybe 70 months?
I like to read war history and military news, but I am not someone who loves to see blood that much, especially in this case where both side are Chinese.
So why not take Taiwan with less blood? By looking at the current situation, it seems that the Chinese government quite agree with me.
Not everyone in Taiwan want independent, I would put a rough figure, maybe 50-50? So, China needs to target the 50% Taiwanese who want independent but not invading the whole Taiwan. For me, invading Taiwan is the stupidest way the Chinese government could think of. But of course, they are not stupid, I can see that the Chinese government wants no war with Taiwan.
In my opinion, the main reason the 50% Taiwanese who want independent because they see Mainland Chinese as poor, no culture, uneducated, something like a 2nd class people, they do not want to join the family. But how to fight this war? Well, I would say fight it the Mao Zedong's way, just like in WW2 with the Japanese, that's the reason why I said in the beginning I have a way to grab Taiwan but in 70 months.
Some people talked about how to fight Taiwan, Japan and US at the same time. You guys want a WW3??????
So, first China will need a unification count down, and announce to the world that China will take Taiwan on a certain date. Also tells the Taiwanese, war is only directed to the ppl who want independent, and remember to mention "This is a long war!" The innocent ppl are advised to leave Taiwan with your family and valuable items before the war starts. For those who want independent, you can stay until our forces land in Taiwan.
When the day comes, no army, no air force, no navy, just fire MLRS to Taiwan. No need high accuracy weapons, the most important thing in firing these rockets is "NOT ACCURATE". Maybe just hitting the brothels? government offices? Chen's ancestors' graveyard? Yes, those are very good targets! This sends a message to Taiwanese the 'poor' trained PLA are coming with their 'outdated' weapons. Remember! Fire unaccurately!
If the Taiwanese navy and air force stay in their bases, the Chinese navy and air force do the same. If they come, destroy them in Chinese water. Also tell those in Kimmen and Matsu (most of them support KMT), stay in their tunnels quietly and do not make a single move, if not they will be wiped out also.
When the Americans come, stop and bring up the Taiwan issues in UN. I do not think Americans will attack China as Chinese has never moved their 2nd artillery, air force, navy and army. Then we will see how long American aircraft battle groups will stay on the sea, 1 month? 2 months? 3 months? When they leave, fire rockets again. Stop when they come back.
What if US put a sanction on China? Well, China had been that way since WW2, they still survived till today. But it's a different story for Taiwan, the message is, if you want independent, the war will go on. I believe in 70 months, Taipei will be turned into a place worse than a village in China. Then we will see what the pro-independent ppl in Taiwan will say.
Well, this is just my idea, not sure if it can work. Please give comments

KYli

04-09-2006, 08:01 PM

I have a better notion. Let say the CCP bribe the taiwanese to support unification. The chinese government have over 800 billion foreign reserve, if we don't count the 20% or so taiwanese support unification and minus the people under 18. A rough guess there would be some where about 15milion taiwanese, so each of them will get about 60,000 dollars. That still is a lot of money, maybe many Taiwanese will want to switch side. So China would take over Taiwan without a single blood, and everybody will be happy. AS a plus Chinese will also get the 250billion dollars from Taiwan reserve, so that is not so bad after all.:D

Sh*t I probably have a fever, when did I become an idiot to suggest this kind of nonsense. Oh well, just ignore what I say in this post, and never judge me on this. I am very:o .

The_Zergling

04-09-2006, 09:43 PM

Out of curiosity, is that 60,000 RMB, NT, or USD?

I have a way to grab Taiwan, but not in 7 hours, maybe 70 months?
I like to read war history and military news, but I am not someone who loves to see blood that much, especially in this case where both side are Chinese.
So why not take Taiwan with less blood?
Not everyone in Taiwan want independent, I would put a rough figure, maybe 50-50? So, China needs to target the 50% Taiwanese who want independent but not invading the whole Taiwan.
In my opinion, the main reason the 50% Taiwanese who want independent because they see Mainland Chinese as poor, no culture, uneducated, something like a 2nd class people, they do not want to join the family.
So, first China will need a unification count down, and announce to the world that China will take Taiwan on a certain date. Also tells the Taiwanese, war is only directed to the ppl who want independent, and remember to mention "This is a long war!" The innocent ppl are advised to leave Taiwan with your family and valuable items before the war starts. For those who want independent, you can stay until our forces land in Taiwan.
When the day comes, no army, no air force, no navy, just fire MLRS to Taiwan. No need high accuracy weapons, the most important thing in firing these rockets is "NOT ACCURATE".

I certainly agree that it's in everyone's interests to avoid bloodshed. Whether or not peace comes from unification is open to debate, but whatever -_-;.

From my personal experience, I would disagree with your 50/50 figure regarding independence. From the people I've talked to, most of them feel that Taiwan is already a de facto country, but that does not reflect accurately in elections or polls for several reasons; for instance, some feel Taiwan is a country but don't think it's worth being invaded, others feel Taiwan is a country but disagree with the current independence-leaning leadership, the list goes on.

So singling out the "50%" who want independence without invading all of Taiwan is pretty much impossible. I disagree that the majority of Taiwanese people view Mainland Chinese as "2nd class people". As far as I can tell, there is little if any animosity towards China, just the hostile government and its actions. Whether or not they feel they should be joining a "family" remains open to debate. When your "brother" is pointing missiles at you it kind of overrides any common blood in your veins.

You mentioned a unification count down. From what I can tell, basically it's telling the world and Taiwan, "We're going to do as we please, you can all STFU."

It's indeed admirable that the CCP would (in your scenario) advice the innocent people to move from Taiwan. Except for a few problems. Number one, not everyone is financially or emotionally capable of moving from a country that they feel attachment to. Even if they could get over that, exactly where would they go? I don't see Japan or the U.S. issuing out millions of passports anytime soon. In other words, there WILL unavoidably millions of innocents left on the island, whether or not they want independence or not. If they didn't earlier, they'll probably want it now that no matter what they do they'll die. So I'd say it's counter-productive. (A sticky issue is the problem of aboriginals. They'd probably be like, "What right do you have to tell us what to do, and fire missiles at us? We ARE the original people of Taiwan! WTF?!")

So, your first point is moot. It's IMPOSSIBLE to have only "combatants" in Taiwan. Obviously this causes problems for the second part of your scenario. Since you're not caring about accuracy, inevitably there will be civilian casualties, possibly horrendous. It would probably only take one "misplaced" MLRS strike in metro Taipei to raise a public outcry.

I believe in 70 months, Taipei will be turned into a place worse than a village in China. Then we will see what the pro-independent ppl in Taiwan will say.

This could seriously backfire. For one thing, it is possible that the Taiwanese people will actually... say... feel PISSED because they were living their lives happily until China decided to turn it into a place worse than "a village in China?". If they decide to unify just to survive, what you'll get is a country of millions of pissed off people who will forever hold a grudge against the CCP. Not exactly the nicest province to have.

You asked for comments, and I gave them. Nothing personal, but I think it's a lousy plan, because it's political suicide and will result in at best a Win-Lose for China, or a Lose-Lose for all.

Choy

04-10-2006, 02:43 PM

Cheers for the reply, you have discussed quite a lot about my idea.

"Whether or not they feel they should be joining a "family" remains open to debate. When your "brother" is pointing missiles at you it kind of overrides any common blood in your veins."

China offered a 1 country 2 systems (like HK) to Taiwan. They didn't accept it, what can you do except teaching them some lessons? Well, will any country in the world allow one of its states to have this kind of system?

You mentioned a unification count down. From what I can tell, basically it's telling the world and Taiwan, "We're going to do as we please, you can all STFU."

I like you, you are different from other Americans in your country!

It's indeed admirable that the CCP would (in your scenario) advice the innocent people to move from Taiwan. Except for a few problems. Number one, not everyone is financially or emotionally capable of moving from a country that they feel attachment to. Even if they could get over that, exactly where would they go? I don't see Japan or the U.S. issuing out millions of passports anytime soon. In other words, there WILL unavoidably millions of innocents left on the island, whether or not they want independence or not. If they didn't earlier, they'll probably want it now that no matter what they do they'll die. So I'd say it's counter-productive. (A sticky issue is the problem of aboriginals. They'd probably be like, "What right do you have to tell us what to do, and fire missiles at us? We ARE the original people of Taiwan! WTF?!")

That is to make Taiwan into chaos, I mean mentally. They are pissed anyway while sitting peacefully at home, so why not try a little force?

So, your first point is moot. It's IMPOSSIBLE to have only "combatants" in Taiwan. Obviously this causes problems for the second part of your scenario. Since you're not caring about accuracy, inevitably there will be civilian casualties, possibly horrendous. It would probably only take one "misplaced" MLRS strike in metro Taipei to raise a public outcry.

Haha... sorry mate... perhaps you didn't get what I meant, that was my Chinese way of expressing... what I meant was those rockets don't have to hit important targets like military facilities... just hitting some anti-china politician's offices would be enough, or some not so important targets. I didn't mean to fire rockets like mad to everywhere in Taiwan, what's the point of doing that?

I will explain further next time since I am not free now... anyway, do post your views here, ok? cheers

The_Zergling

04-10-2006, 04:43 PM

China offered a 1 country 2 systems (like HK) to Taiwan. They didn't accept it, what can you do except teaching them some lessons? Well, will any country in the world allow one of its states to have this kind of system?

Yes, I know about the 1 country 2 systems. However, given the negative coverage over how China has backtracked regarding 'promises' regarding Hong Kong's autonomy, it is unlikely Taiwan will be eager to follow suit. Also, from Taiwan's POV it's not a state of China, which is the whole point of this dispute. So even though from China's view it's an internal affair, from Taiwan's view it's external aggression. Just depends on how you slice it.

I like you, you are different from other Americans in your country!

Hmm. I don't know exactly what this is supposed to mean, but I'll take it as a compliment...

That is to make Taiwan into chaos, I mean mentally. They are pissed anyway while sitting peacefully at home, so why not try a little force?

Haha... sorry mate... perhaps you didn't get what I meant, that was my Chinese way of expressing... what I meant was those rockets don't have to hit important targets like military facilities... just hitting some anti-china politician's offices would be enough, or some not so important targets. I didn't mean to fire rockets like mad to everywhere in Taiwan, what's the point of doing that?

And exactly how would pissing off the people of Taiwan benefit both countries in the long run? Forceful unification via coercion is not beneficial. Maybe resentment will simmer, but some day it will boil over. At the best you have a puppet government controlling a bunch of people who are angry at being invaded.

And okay. Apparently I misinterpreted your 'rockets idea'. It's still tactically stupid. For one thing, it's not like all 'politician's offices' are marked with a big red x. And not all the politicians are all that hostile towards China, some are quite vocal in advocating unification. However, if they weren't hostile before they WILL be hostile if they survive a rocket strike attempt on their lives.

Basically, there will be collateral damage, a obvious reason being the crowded living conditions of Taipei, where the head of the government is.

And collateral damage is never the best first step to take if your goal is 'make your brother love you'. At best you'll have a dysfunctional family.