This is a discussion on Shenyang J-31 Fighter within the Air Force forums, part of the China Defense & Military category; Originally Posted by i.e. SK will have whatever it will have , Japan too, India/Russia PAK-FA. plus minor potentants like ...
India is becoming a serious player, but still lacks the wealth or technological base to become a true military threat to China.
With the possible exception of Japan, all the other neighboring countries you lists are medium rate powers at best and of no threat by themselves and will in all likelihood not get into the fight directly even if America and China came to blows, and frankly, even if they did stick their nose in, their forces would not make much of a difference.
You make it sound as if China is beset on all sides by powerful foes, but that is simply not close to being true. The only nation that can truly threaten China is America, and America doesn't really want a fight with China any more than China wants a fight with America.
Assumption is the mother of all mistakes. Whoever said anything about limiting J20 production to 3-4 regiments?only a mental patient would think 3-4 regiments of J-20 backed up a masses of J-10B is sufficient, no offense. only a full 5th gen fleet in thousands would suffice, plus new long range strike force, plus space base weapons etc etc.
The whole point in not going for a full 5th gen fleet is to make more funds available to purchase more J20s than the PLAAF would be able to afford if it diverted resources into procuring a medium weight 5th gen fighter. The only way the PLAAF might end up with just 3-4 regiments of J20s is if they copied the USAF in everything and repeated every mistake they made.
I have always questioned the decision of the USAF to go full stealth at the expense of drastically cutting their F22 numbers, for the PLAAF to go down that route would be simply mindless imitation of the worst kind, and I do not think for a moment that the PLAAF will do that.
The F35 might be on paper better than a J10B, but then it will in all likelihood be better than the F60 or whatever equivalent medium weight 5th gen CAC might cook up. Far better to pitch a J20 against an F35 whereby you actually have the better plane.
Hell, the J10B would at least have a good chance to eat the F35 alive in WVR, but the F60 will in all likelihood not even manage that. It will loose to the F35 in BVR and WVR. If you wanna bully someone who doesn't have 5th gens, sure, the F60 would be a cheap way to go about it, but if you are fighting someone with F35s, the F60 really has advantage other than in numbers maybe. But winning through sheer force of numbers is a pretty bad tactic and is probably worse than going for J10Bs.
At least with J10Bs, you know your pilots would have the edge if they got within WVR. With the F60, your guys will be taking heavier losses in BVR and WVR.
And lets not forget we are not talking about throwing J10Bs against F35s alone. Those J10Bs will have J20 support, and that will make a massive difference.
China does not need thousands of 5th gens, nobody needs that many 5th gens, and not even the Americans can afford that many 5th gens. The Americans do not need that many 5th gens, and cannot really afford it, but they are going for it anyways because they have backed themselves into a corner over it, and are further in debt thanks to that decision. Hardly something you'd want to emulate in a hurry.
Yes they are, and probably more so than you might realize.The long range stealth fighter is the new dreadnaught.
When the HMS Dreadnaught was launched, it instantly made the vast existing battleship fleets around the world obsolete.
Stealth might be all the rage now, but it is only one or two breakthroughs away from obsolescence. It might take half a century for those breakthroughs to happen, or it might take a few years. But suppose a breakthrough in sensor tech does occur that makes all the stealth shaping and RAM materials obsolete. The F22 would still have it's supercruise, good range and decent dogfighting ability. The J20 and PAKFA will likely be in the same boat. But what about the F35?
It is no turkey by any ways, but if you take stealth away, it really has nothing over the likes of the Rafale, Typhoon or J10B that will available by the time the F35 becomes operational.
The F60 will not match the F35 and would suffer even more if stealth was rendered obsolete.
The more you buy into 5th gens, the bigger the gamble you are taking, and the more you will loose if another 'dreadnaught moment' occurs.
Last edited by plawolf; 07-25-2012 at 09:32 PM.
Last edited by Air Force Brat; 07-25-2012 at 10:06 PM.
Well, experts on a China Central Television show call it J-21.
Here's the link: http://news.cntv.cn/world/20120726/118483.shtml
I just went through it. As usual, there's nothing new that we don't already know. Experts they may be, they won't tell anything before we already know it.
Last edited by Player99; 07-26-2012 at 11:41 AM.
Now, I'm not saying that there will necessarily be conflict or collective security action against China, but right now China enjoys great leverage over any South China Sea scenario because of vastly superior military strength. In order to guarantee that it can continue to enjoy that strong bargaining position and prevent a major conflict from occurring due to winnable scenarios by opponents, it needs to sustain that superior military advantage. At the end of the day the PLA needs to build its strength faster than its opponents. That's at least my understanding of the potential need for more advanced air power (probably with long legs). They need to sustain the gap in strength.
Last edited by latenlazy; 07-27-2012 at 02:33 AM.
I think what most of these nations are doing now is to get the most benefit possible from both the US and China by pitting one against the other. When both biggies want bigger influence in the area and want to ally with you, you can negotiate better deals and get bigger interests. At the end of the day, no one is actually looking to help another nation. what every nation is doing is to maximize their own interest.
Unless they are attacked and have no choice but to ally with someone, they will most likely stay out of the fight. And once the fight is over, they will be friends with both again. Think about what you would do if you saw a grizzly bear fighting a Siberian tiger while hiking in the mountains. Would you jump in and help one of them, or would you stay behind and watch? I know what I would do: stay far away and watch.
I've mentioned this before and I'll say it again here. Asia does not hate China!!! There is NO hatred of any kind between China and Asia. SK, Japan and those ASEAN nations are NOT planning to destroy China whenever they get an opportunity. Yes, they may have some grudges and some disagreements, but nothing more than what neighboring countries anywhere on this planet are experiencing. If anything, there is probably more grudges between the UK and France than anything between China and the rest of Asia. DO NOT make it sound like the entire Asia will jump on China's throat whenever they see fit!!!
Last edited by vesicles; 07-27-2012 at 12:02 PM.
There's no guarantee of conflict, but it's the uncertainty of potential conflict that makes armament necessary. For China strengthening their military quicker than their neighbors is the best way to minimize that uncertainty of conflict by keeping absolute superiority.
Last edited by latenlazy; 07-27-2012 at 12:21 PM.
Also the fact that US has been the big dog for so long, it will take some time for them to get use to another power. I mean I remember when Qing dynasty was weak, many of the Chinese vessel stick by China until China can't protect them anymore, if they were using logic and reason, they would have abandon China long before that.
And this island dispute does not help China's image at all, China can't back down due to the the opinion from their own population, and if they use force they will suffer internationally. Things will get tough for China in the upcoming years. I think this is actually China's rite of passage anyway.
Don't worry about money, I fully believe this is a project with strong PLAAF backing, besides, XAC and SAC have been milking Boeing/Airbus for years now they are not exactly broke.