This is a discussion on Shenyang J-31 Fighter within the Air Force forums, part of the China Defense & Military category; Originally Posted by Bltizo Why a no-no? -- anyway here are the rest of the pictures. Pretty consistent differences from ...
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JH-7B may have some stealth but if it's still derived from the old strike JH-7, then it should be somewhere, in terms of generation, between, J20, SAC-JXX and the J16/J11BHS which don't seem to have any stealth and derived from a heavy fighter.
So there are obvious differences in roles/capabilities of these jets.
If you look at USAF which have F22, if they can fix it, F35, F15E, F16s/15s/18s coexisting, PLAAF with J20, J-XX, JH7-B, J10B, J16/J11BHS, J15 is not too much at all especially considering PLAAF don't share USAF's enthusiasm for common services platform like F35.
The reason why this is significant is because running multiple platforms is expensive in terms of maintenance and supply. You only have a situation like the US because 1) You have two separate branches of the military with different requirements in their planes (The F-35 is a good example of how even with different branch requirements the costs are a problem), and 2) you're watching an air force in transition and phasing out legacy fighters. This is vastly different than a discussion about introducing both a J-16/19 and a JH-7B, where both are newly being introduced at the same time, guaranteeing twice the maintenance burden for half the number of each plane type. Unless there is a significant advantage to having both (for example, one being specialized for carriers), it seems unlikely from a logistics and operations point of view.
The PLAAF may not have an enthusiasm for common service platforms, but keep in mind the USAF and USN didn't either, and had to be strongarmed by the ballooning costs of increasingly advanced air frames.
1.The PLAAF intended to buid a both defensive and offensive force(by recent PLAAF publictions),the SAC J-XX fighter/bomber will be the backbone to project the air to ground firepower in an offensive mission.
2.If the SAC J-XX is cheaper enough(at least it seems so from current leaked information) than the J-20,mostlikely the PLAAF will buy more of it than the J-20.That means the PLAAF will form a high/low combination by the J-20/SAC J-XX.
3.I can smell the distrust from the PLAAF to the CAC.The SAC J-XX has a role to be the plan B that if the J-20 failed,the PLAAF still has another project to ensure the sucess.
Overall,the SAC J-XX services the PLAAF's future offensive plan and it's important to the PLAAF,the SAC project could not to be a self-funded one.It's important,if not more important than the J-20.
Privately developing a new aircraft in the early stages and then having the military become interested is not new at all.
I agree with your points 1 and 2. SAC's J-XX could certainly be used in those roles but that does not support the idea their "J-19" is being privately or government funded.
Point 3 is ridiculous -- if there's any distrust it's PLAAF towards SAC. The fact that they've only recently picked up J-11B/S and J-15 production is probably because PLAAF were commited to the platform as the current mainstay of their heavy fighter force. The same way they are commited to the J-20 as their future heavy fighter force.
SAC's J-XX proposal lost for a reason, and CAC has shown themselves more than capable to take on the task of developing multiple new fighters in recent years.
SAC's J-19 is probably not being funded by the air force.
CARRIER HAS ARRIVED! ^^
This is mostly educated speculation. The PLAAF does not confirm anything in advance.
J-16: this will apparently be simply an upgrade of the J-11BS, perhaps with some more emphasis on ground strike. First flight expected 2011-2012.
J-18: this is in early development, so don't be surprised if you are not going to hear about it for a few years. It is supposedly a naval fighter follow on to the J-15.
J-19: this is the Shenyang's J-XX.
J-2X (or J-21/J-12?): this is supposedly a F-35 type fighter developed from the J-20. It may be for export.
JH-7B: this will be a stealthy variant of the JH-7A with AESA radar and upgraded engines. First flight expected very soon.
JF-17 Block II: stealthy JF-17 with AESA, more composites, etc. First flight may already been completed.
The J-17 is supposedly a cancelled copy of the Su-34.
As you see, many of them are simply upgrades of existing fighters, and many are export oriented. This implies that not all of them will enter service or enter service in significant numbers.
The picture comes from an article written by an ex AVIC employee.
In the article the ex employee says that there are three major variants of the J-11 being developed.
Two of these variants will have some stealthy features while the last variant will essentially be a 5th generation fighter.
^ Edit your posts instead of posting five consecutive please... makes reading it much easier.
CARRIER HAS ARRIVED! ^^
But it's too strong a word to talk of distrust. It's just sound planning to have a SAC J-XX using more mature tech than J20, which is more radical, available just in case.
We see from F22 how when you push to the edge of tech, you're taking big risks. And J20 is definitely pushing the edge.
This isn't to say that there won't be another 5th generation air frame. It's just unlikely for so many of them (I count 3-4 potential unique air frames) to be pursued and adopted in parallel.
In any case, it doesn't matter what any of us think. It depends on whether the PLAAF has any requests for new designs.
Last edited by latenlazy; 08-23-2011 at 09:34 PM.
you failed to include F-4 phantom jet.
Mcdonnel dougles F-4 started out as a company funded fighter.
SAC's J-1X is not funded by SAC itself, it is funded by AVIC, and SAC has lots connections with the managements in AVIC, the current CEO of AVIC come from Shenyang, the big academic bully at AVIC, Dr. Gu, is from SAC.
And AVIC is a fortune 500 company, and it is a mega corporation that own most aircraft design insistute and manufacturing factories in China, and thanks to its CEO's un-professionalness, the company now has expending to other areas like investment firms and real-estate building agency, and they have indeed risen lots money by doing these.
The overall market cap. of AVIC, given tha if it it is allowed to be listed in stock market, should be around in 150-200 billion USD (currrently only 20% or so of its small sub-companies (e.g. no SAC/CAC/XAC/HAC) are allowed to be listed in market, the total market of these 20% has already exceeding 30 billion USD.
So of cause it is not impossible for AVIC to fund some stealth fighter projects all by themselves, especially if they believe they can eventually find market to sell their fighters,be it PLAAF, PLAN or oversea (considering the fact J-20 is completely funded by PLAAF and it is highly regarded in PLAAF so the likelihood of PLAAF allow CAC to export J-20 in the near future is slim).
FIGHTERS IN SERVICE-----
J-7E/G=Improved Mig 21
J-8IIB/D/=Improved J-8 Interceptor
J-8IIH/F=Further Improved J-8II Multirole
J-10/A/S=Lo Fighter In Hi-Lo Mix.
Su-27=Imported From Russia
J-11/A=Domestically Assembled Su-27
J-11B/S=Domestically Built and Improved Su-27
Su-30=Imported Strike Fighter
FIGHTERS CONCLUSIVELY IN DEVELOPMENT-----
J-15=Carrier Variant of J-11B
J-20=5th Generation Air Superiority Fighter
CANCELED OR UNAPPROVED---------------------
J-9=Single Engine Light Fighter
J-11=(Original Shenyang Project)
J-12=Nanchang (Hongdu) Light Fighter
J-14=Proposed Twin Engine J-10 Heavy Fighter (Redundant as the J-11B was already being built)
J-16=J-11BS Derived Strike Fighter
J-18=Semi-Stealth Naval J-15 Follow-Up
J-19=Shenyang Heavy Stealth Fighter
J-2X=Single Engine Stealth Fighter
The problem here is that China already has about 16 fighter variants in service, not counting bombers, transports, "S" versions, awacs, tankers, the Q-5.
Now we know they are developing at least 3 new aircraft definitively, but rumors suggest...on top of that 7 more fighters. Again, not including bombers, transports, "S" versions, awacs, tankers, the Q-5....etc.
This would mean that China would have 20 different fighter platforms in service in 2020, even after taking into account the retirement of the six oldest aircraft platforms in service.
Compare that to the US, which will have a total of just 9 different platforms in service that same year. Again, excluding bombers and the like.
I do not see how China can be developing 10 new aircraft simultaneously guys. Some of these aircraft must be figments of our imaginations.
I think it's the shadow of vertical tail~!^
I seriously don't think there's the need of that. It is inefficient use of logistics and resources. I hope and do believe, lots of these are rumors. J-16,17, 18 are essentially the same thing! And what's the point of J-2X? And why invest in JF-17B anyways? if it were me, I'd shave off the 16-18 into one thing, and attempt to retire the sub-J-10 stuffs into second line or use it in ways that are meant to be sacrificed but getting the most out of them.