SinoDefence Forum

Chengdu J-10

If the EU arms embargo was lifted from China what kind of airforce would China have in 2020 if the embargo was lifted in 2010??? Includings its own airforce. What would China buy?How many would they buy?Would they actually buy anything?
My thoughts
PLAAF 2020:

J-XX (Operational but in small production)

J-13=Twin Engine J-10 (Operational in production)

J-11A/B Acquire another license to further build another 100 (Finish building the license 200)

J-10A/B Bulk of the PLAAF (J-10 Naval version 2 carrier regiments)

J-8 Couple left ~50 rest retired (Mostly concerned with reconissance and survelliance)

J-7 Completly retired (Latest versions of the J-7 will be converted to UCAV)

JH-7/A/B all versions upgraded to B level (B level carries 9 tonnes, 11 tonnes complete max)

L-15 in production and main trainer aircraft

Q-5 completly retired (Convert to ground attack UCAV)

H-6 completly retired

Y-9 multi purpose transport aircraft for PLAAF

Y-8 beginning to retire earlier versions

Y-5/7 retired

IL-76 recieved all from Russia

IL-78 still in service

C-17 China version in service acting as transport and mid air refueller

Su-27/30 Still in service with upgrades

Foreign:
Rafale & Eurofighter mostly for examination to incorporate into their own systems.
F-22/35 like a chance in hell US will sell them China or vice versa like hell China is keen in paying that much money.

crobato

I doubt that the Europeans would be that stupid to sell Rafale and Typhoon in a sample quantity for the Chinese to study it. And if they did, the Europeans may just sell some downgraded plane.

Actually, China has very little need to study these planes other than their electronic systems, most especially the SPECTRA on the Rafale. But this is a desire for now, in 2007, not 2020. If China is already building some fifth gen fighter at 2020, I'm pretty sure it has no need for the Typhoon or Rafale at all---both would have been obsolete by comparison.

There is no 200 plane limit on the J-11. Its just the number of kits China optioned to buy. China is free to build any number of J-11B as it wants.

JF-17 is probably at this point, some variant with ESA radar and more powerful engines.

LiLaZnMaGiCsCt

Even if the US sold a F-22, China would be able to afford just one, and then they'll be mass producing the F-22 into their own version. Make US even pissed, and start some conflict about weaponry.

antiterror13

I think it would be better off for China as now with embargo as it "force" China to increase R & D and develop more and more advanced system.

EU arm embargo is nothing but politic ... China has received some advanced sub systems from many EU countries like Germany, France, Italia, etc you name it.

so with or without embargo AND whether you like it or hate it .. China will be progressing in a very fast pace in about every fields

2010-2012 is a critical time for China and Taiwan ... after that .. no chance for Taiwan to fight against China even with USA

FuManChu

I disagree most strongly. After all the US will continue to modernise its forces, and Taiwan will increase its own defensive capabilities. Then there are basic problems China will always have in attacking Taiwan.

I think next decade could be critical, but more because China may become overconfident of its chances of success and use an invasion of Taiwan on a pretext for whipping up nationalism and deflecting domestic criticism. If Taiwan were to make a UDI, it would have done so before 2010/2012 due to the 2008 Olympics.

As to the original post, I doubt very much that the embargo would be lifted by 2010 - it's not even that realistic to dream. Might as well have a thread about what Taiwan's armed forces would look like if Europe/Japan/South Korea sold all they had to offer.

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"Japan is as much of a threat to China, as China is to Japan."

--FuManChu

Shingy

I think he might be talking about the fact China's economic success make the palatable then Taiwan, in the next few years support for Taiwan will go down, is what i was thinking.
Either that or what he meant was, pretty much Taiwan is much closer to China, if China can modernize its navy and land in Taiwan first before any US support gets there, they will have pretty much won, although i think it will just make it harder, war is too ambiguous to know for sure.
I am not too sure on the EU's impression of taking away the arms embargo so i can't comment, i honestly don't think the EU care its just that the US is breathing down our necks.

FuManChu

No, I think the European Union does care. For example, the European Parliament has been consistently against lifting the embargo. They don't make the decisions, but they are directly elected to talk on European affairs (unlike the EU Council).

Also the main proponents of lifting the embargo (Shroeder and Chirac) have now gone, so I'm not sure who is left with real muscle inside the EU to push for it. The leaders of the biggest countries have voiced their opposition (Blair, Merkel and Sarkozy - I doubt Brown will be any different).

China had its best chance in 2005, but I think the Anti-Secession Act scuppered that along with American pressure.

__________________
"Japan is as much of a threat to China, as China is to Japan."

--FuManChu

fishhead

First, Chinese will never depend on large bulk foreign equipments, so large amout of import is impossible, even from Russia.

Second, the EU embargo is not mandatorary and its effect is only symbolic. France, German and Italy never stop selling military equipments to China, only in different civilian names.

The EU embargo is mainly a political thing which just demos that they're still "loyal" to US, not much anything else.

FuManChu

The effect is not just symbolic - it has been discussed many times on the forums that there are things China cannot get from Europe because of the embargo.

Again, absolute rubbish and is an insult to those Europeans that support the embargo because of their own views.

__________________
"Japan is as much of a threat to China, as China is to Japan."

--FuManChu

fishhead

Even without embargo, EU will not sell anything China wants either, as pre-1989 experience shows.

European views? They sell a lot military equipment today. Back in 1990s at the height of military tension of Taiwan strait, British sold all their stock ws-9 engines to China, and they knew only one place the engines would go - FBC.

aquilis182

Jeje. Please correct me if Im wrong. But that sound to me like you believe that if China manage to get rid of the arms embargo U.S. & Taiwan will stop modernizing their force. If you forget U.S. fly his first stealth figher fly in 18 June 1981. (chek http://aerospaceweb.org/aircraft/bomber/ then select F-117 Nighthawk) 26 years later and l still dind see China do the same thing and you expect China to match or surpass U.S. in 2012 in technology? I don't mean disrespect buddy. Im just surprise about it.

King_Comm

==Well, there is no technological barrier preventing the Chinese from building something like F-117 right now, but something like F-117 is pretty useless for China. Remember, in the past 10 years, the technological gap between China and west has been narrowed from over 30 years to less than 15 years, the US forces deployed in the Western Pacific already holds little advantage against the Chinese.

==Chinese GDP is 8 times that of Taiwan, and the gap is still growing at a rapid rate, there is no way Taiwan is going to increase its defense capability to a degree that can defend against China.

akinkhoo

Israel had leak quite a bit technology, if China couldn't take advantage of it, I doubt Euro will yield better result.

what about Sweden, is Sweden willing to sell to china? imo their wares fit chinese requirement more than european ones. and Sweden are known to provides good support and are willing to share technical data, making integration easier.

FuManChu

Sweden is a part of the European Union.

As far as I know it has not shown any interest in either lifting the embargo or selling direct to China/co-operating on military technology.

__________________
"Japan is as much of a threat to China, as China is to Japan."

--FuManChu

sumdud

Infra Man99. There's a button in which you press to report to the moderators. You do not flame out like this on a thread. On the button, you are new, I will give you a chance, but next time you will be warned.

But as for your comments, I'll leave that at the full mercy of the other mods.

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Give us a break. Don't try ranting at SDF.