New J-10 thread II

[mehdi]

Can someone post the pic where the Chinese president was looking at a TVC engine. I strongly believe that the WS-10A will be equipped with one.

[crobato]

I am refering to this news(Chinese)
http://www.mct.com.cn/jungongcekong/...an.asp?num=278

The last WS-9 flight trial for production certification was complete on Dec 15, 2006. The paperwork was approved probably in last month, Mar 2007.

Actually the article didn't say anything. I believe it was clear taken out of original proper time context. The page is just reprinting an old article. Note the text, googled.

"As at 13:32 on December 15, a certain type of aircraft in a flight test center landing airport security, marks "the Qinling" stereotyped flight test engine production work completed. "Qinling" engine of China's own production of the twin-rotor outside culvert turbofan engine augmented, production stereotypes test flight was conducted in two phases; lead flight phase and production phase of stereotypes. "Qinling" engine production stereotyped by three flight test aircraft commitment to a comprehensive and rigorous. Flight stage leading to June 1, 2002 to March 6, 2003 to complete; production stage stereotypes second test flight in April 8th, December 15th end. The stage had completed the main engine parameters measured, Starting Performance engine air screening of the nine research projects test flight mission "Qinling" engine production stereotypes lay a foundation."

It simply does not mention 2007 in any part of the text. The proper way to interpret the article is.

1st Flight stage leading from June 1, 2002 to March 6, 2003.

Prototype second stage test flight in April 8th, 2003, end December 15, 2003.

In other words, everything happened in 2003, not 2007. In 2004, the JH-7A is already in serial production and by the end of 2004, a regiment in the PLAAF has already formed, with the PLANAF regiment occuring earlier in the year.

[crobato]

Originally Posted by mehdi

Can someone post the pic where the Chinese president was looking at a TVC engine. I strongly believe that the WS-10A will be equipped with one.

You mean this one?

[mehdi]

Originally Posted by crobato

You mean this one?

Yes this is the picture thanks crobato. Perhaps this will silent some people who don't believe that China will be producing a TVC engine. If you could find the time line of the picture we could have more clues about the development of the WS-10A engine.

[crobato]

The picture I believe was in the 2002 Zhuhai. Hu Jin Tao was President in the same month as the 2004 Zhuhai. So you can see that took place quite a while ago.

[fishhead]

Originally Posted by crobato

Actually the article didn't say anything. I believe it was clear taken out of original proper time context. The page is just reprinting an old article. Note the text, googled.

crobato, obviously, you don't understand how Chinese system works. The news was posted in Jan 2007.

This is the first time that "production certification" was mentioned regarding to WS-9. For WS-10a, that term hasn't been mentioned anywhere yet, no matter how you google it.

[fishhead]

Originally Posted by tphuang

you obviously have missed all of the AVIC1 articles that stated WS-10A is in mass production right now. You can't compare WS-10A to WS-9, they have completely different priorities.

I dispute that. It's in production but not in "mass production".

Even current deployed J-10 doesn't have it. And J-11 probably just starts to go to formal production. Where are those from "mass production" going?

[fishhead]

Regarding to WS-9 production certification, this article is the one with the most credit. It's from the Chinese Test Flight Institute, posted on Dec 30, 2006, roughly same as the first one, but with more detail.

http://www.cfte.com.cn/article/ReadN...mallClassID=13

[zyun8288]

Originally Posted by fishhead

From the recent news, we can see clearly that J-10, or WS-10a are just transitional goals for PLAAF. The new airplanes are coming from the drawing board(there are other speculations as well), same improvement probably from the engine as well.

I have some doubt that the current configuration of J-10 or WS-10a will go to mass production. The engine, WS-10a needs at least 3-5 years to get mutured for that. The Chinese real goal at least should be the improved version of WS-10a that powers the J-10 Mod version airplane with some kind of stealth feature.

It's quite prudent for them just do small batch production, to solve all the problem encounted for the brand new versions of engine and airplane, not unexpectedly. In 1970s, when China rushed to mass produce the new turbo engines, the problem of broken blade merged from that and forced to ground the whole airplane fleet. They couldn't solve the problem in the short time and the case went up finally to Chinese prime minister, Zhou Enlai. They definitely learned something from that.

One thing you should notice is that, after the cold war, most if not all fighter planes do not have large production numbers. Instead, they all have small batch productions. It's the same case with J10. There are J10 batch 00 to 02, then J10 block I (or A) etc.... None of those configurations got a large/mass production. This is the norm rather than transition. in the next decade to come, there will be more variants of J10s coming but that doesn't mean J10 is transitional and PLAAF is aiming something else. IMHO, China's 4th gen fighter won't be ready before 2020. J10 and J11 still has couple of decades lives.

[fishhead]

Originally Posted by zyun8288

One thing you should notice is that, after the cold war, most if not all fighter planes do not have large production numbers. Instead, they all have small batch productions. It's the same case with J10. There are J10 batch 00 to 02, then J10 block I (or A) etc.... None of those configurations got a large/mass production. This is the norm rather than transition. in the next decade to come, there will be more variants of J10s coming but that doesn't mean J10 is transitional and PLAAF is aiming something else. IMHO, China's 4th gen fighter won't be ready before 2020. J10 and J11 still has couple of decades lives.

The J10 production rate is no where near F16 at its peak, no where near planed JSF rate. It's little bit better than F22. According to this rate (50/yr), it will take 20 years to make 1000 J10, PLAAF can take a long vacation then.

The rational estimate should put this kind of production at 300-500/yr, to meet PLAAF's requirement. CAC's original design capability is 2 J7/day.

What is called "mass production" hasn't come yet, wait 5 years to see.

[zyun8288]

Originally Posted by fishhead

The J10 production rate is no where near F16 at its peak, no where near planed JSF rate. It's little bit better than F22. According to this rate (50/yr), it will take 20 years to make 1000 J10, PLAAF can take a long vacation then.

The rational estimate should put this kind of production at 300-500/yr, to meet PLAAF's requirement. CAC's original design capability is 2 J7/day.

What is called "mass production" hasn't come yet, wait 5 years to see.

Oh well, if 300-500/yr is your standard of mass production, you can be sured that you won't see it happening to any fighter plane in 21st century, unless WWIII is started.

IMHO, the upper limit of J10 (all variants included) production is 800 panning 15 years.

[fishhead]

Originally Posted by zyun8288

Oh well, if 300-500/yr is your standard of mass production, you can be sured that you won't see it happening to any fighter plane in 21st century, unless WWIII is started.

IMHO, the upper limit of J10 (all variants included) production is 800 panning 15 years.

That's exactly why I said J10 is not what PLAAF really wants for its front line fighters. That has no hope to match US F22/JSF combined force soon coming, not engouh even for IAF in next 15 years.

Chinese're gearing up for the next generation aircrafts, J10 is only the transitional goal. The mass production will come from that.

[Scratch]

The J-10 program now goes for twenty years, they should start fielding an outcome to see what they've got.Some time ago I think tphuang mentioned an article here of a project (supposedly J-10) to have finalized and applied modifications. But that's only a matured J-10 IMO, and not a follow on. If the changes are rather big, it will again some time -years- to evaluate the aircraft. Once again, at a certain point you must field what you currently have and evaluate it on a bigger scale in active duty units.

If J-10 is only a stopgap meassure it's a really a waste of resources, IMO.
And if the follow on from it is someting that will counter raptors, it will: 1.) take much longer than five years until mass production starts 2.) production rates will still be significantly less than 300/year IMO. I very much agree with zyun8288 here.

[fishhead]

Originally Posted by Scratch

If J-10 is only a stopgap meassure it's a really a waste of resources

Not at all. J-10 is the first airplane that uses the home grown modern design/manufacturing technology in China, spare S-27 which is transfered. It's still efficient to handle 90% of the threat Chinese faces, excluding USAF.

So relative large number will be produced, for combat purpose and for muturing production technology purpose. The next generation fighters will grow from it using the same facilities and infrastructures, by same engineers. The production/design of J-10 will greatly accelerate the development of Chinese 5th aircrafts.

If you jump directly to 5th fighters, you end up with LCA.

[Scratch]

Originally Posted by fishhead

Not at all. J-10 is the first airplane that uses the home grown modern design/manufacturing technology in China, spare S-27 which is transfered. It's still efficient to handle 90% of the threat Chinese faces, excluding USAF.

So relative large number will be produced, for combat purpose and for muturing production technology purpose. The next generation fighters will grow from it using the same facilities and infrastructures, by same engineers. The production/design of J-10 will greatly accelerate the development of Chinese 5th aircrafts.

Yes, I quiet agree witht that. But then, IMO, J-10 isn't a transitional aircraft. In this case it should be produced in numbers great enough to get local manufactures used to build and further develop modern aircraft.