SinoDefence Forum

Delbert · 12-01-2008

I think PLAAF Aviation must speed up its development of a new generation fighter planes.

USAF and member nation included in the JSF program will probably start to operate F-35 in 2011, base on my recent info's I was able to gather.

That will really pose another challenge.

Anybody here has any updates on the New Generation the PLAAF was developing? How far was it going?

Totoro · 12-01-2008

A very limited number of JSF planes *may* reach IOC by 2011. Realistically, USAF will not have a meaningful number of f35s (say, upward of 100) before 2014 or so. USN will get theirs even later, perhaps operating a 100 or so no earlier than 2016. Similar timetables are applicable for other JSF partners and operators.

That being said, considering we haven't seen any info on next gen plaaf planes, even if those are discovered tomorrow, it is unlikely meaningful numbers would be tested, produced and fielded before 2018 or so, perhaps later. I guess earlier timeframe *is* possible but then it's hard to talk about true next gen capabilities.

Still, that wouldn't be so bad. at current pace, by 2020 plaaf is bound to be the second most capable air force in the world, in every regard, after usaf.

crobato · 12-01-2008

I'm not sure how the world will accept the JSF's price tag with the economic climate. That's like saying go buy a Ferrari when your house is foreclosed.

The economic malaise appears fundamental and long term, and I don't see a good market for new fighters in the coming years. People and countries will be lucky enough to just hold on to what they already have.

challenge · 12-01-2008

during the 2004 zhuhai airshow,among the display item was a mockup glass cockpit,although AVIC refuse to said what or which aircraft it belong to, some asssume it was j-10.it turn out to be a cockpit for FC-1.
this year airshow, they display yet again mockup cockpit using single glass panel with side stick control,similiar to F-35.
this mean a prototype of this aircraft (j-14?) may already exist,wmf claim the aircraft will be power by AL-41.

Delbert · 12-05-2008

Quote:

Originally Posted by crobato

I'm not sure how the world will accept the JSF's price tag with the economic climate. That's like saying go buy a Ferrari when your house is foreclosed.

The economic malaise appears fundamental and long term, and I don't see a good market for new fighters in the coming years. People and countries will be lucky enough to just hold on to what they already have.

By 2011 onwards, I think he world economy will be start recovering. Probably by 2015 many nations might be already fielding F-35's..

Regarding the cockpit. Was it sure for the prototype on new generation PLAAF fighter? Or it will be used as upgrade cockpit package for J-10?

I hope it would be for the new stealth plane...

crobato · 12-05-2008

I don't think the world economy will improve by 2011. Rather, I think it will get worst. What we have isn't the bottom of the well, but just the beginning of the avalanche. We are seeing long term financial infrastructure problems that are so deeply fundamental and will require long term and painful solutions to deal with. The mood will be so adverse in buying a 200 million dollar fighter which is what we can expect the JSF's price tag to shoot up. But then of course, that 200 million dollars isn't going to be worth much because of the massive dollar inflation.

The next five years or so will be a very very bad time to go buy expensive stealth fighters, especially when you have to explain that to your voting and increasingly unemployed constituency.

flyboy2008 · 12-05-2008

Yes, I agree with that dismal outlook. We've been in a recession since Dec 2007, but the pain is just going to begin.

I don't think the US Govn't or the Politicians have the wisdom to fix the problems.

This country is going to collapse completely within the next 3 years. I'm totally serious too, no joke. The problems are so severe, it's not just another recession. This is not just a part of the business cycle. This is a fatal blow.

We are going to have another Great Depression.

pla101prc · 12-06-2008

with the economy in such a bad shape and obama in power for the next four years we can expect to see the military expenditure, or at least the increase of it, to decline. but the US has every incentive to maintain a clear military advantage.
China's defence industry prolly wont be affected by as much because more spending is in fact what it needs. and more importantly it has the Taiwan issue to worry about. i wouldnt be surprised even if China's military industry expands significantly over the next few years. afterall they do seem have such ambition, the price factor seems to be all the more important nowadays.

ps. as for the economy i agree that this is prolly beyond a business cycle. the crisis prolly wont last much longer but will be followed by a extended period of recession or weak economic growth.

crobato · 12-06-2008

I am expecting that the defense budget would be frozen and then made a fixed percentage of the GDP, like 4%. If the economy goes down, the DF budget goes down with a proportional amount. The long term problem however, is the inflation of the US dollar. Your $200 million Raptor can become $500 million years from now.

Gaginang · 12-22-2008

previously there were Computer generated pictures of the chinese possible next generation aircraft. is there substance to it. or just another properganda of what the chinese could developed if she had the techno-knowhow?

anyone?

bd popeye · 12-22-2008

Gaginang, Read this thread for a possible answer to your question.^^^^

crobato · 12-22-2008

Those CG are just fan boy fantasies, completely amateur work, even if talented. Officially the PLA won't even try to give you a single clue.

bd popeye · 12-22-2008

Quote:

Originally Posted by crobato

Those CG are just fan boy fantasies, completely amateur work, even if talented. Officially the PLA won't even try to give you a single clue.

100% correct crobato.

I'm happy you told him that,... I did not want to disapoint him.

"Fan Boys" cause rumors to be turned into "near truth" by fantasizing their dreams on the internet military forums. And with the tools available to PS any photo they have been real busy over the last several years.

"Fan Boy" speculation over a PLAN CVN is what caused ne to join this forum in April 2005 in the out of control EZ Board days

. All I was doing was looking for the truth about the PLAN CV programme. I'm still waiting to see the first PLAN CV..

..

In that time we've seen the USN commission one CVN, Have one near compleation and start two others. Not to mention one more LHD. We've also see Japan, S.Korea, Spain & Italy send new CVs to sea while we wait patiently for the PLAN to send the mighty Varyag to sea..

Time marches on.

Maggern · 12-22-2008

I find it strange that fan art comes such a long way before getting somewhat stopped. In most cases, it is an obvious fake, and any human should be able to distinguish fake from real and reveal the sham for what it is early in the process.

PS: Congrats on 6000 posts popeye

crobato · 12-22-2008

The problem with PS and fanboy CG is that they are information pollution that tends to distract from the real pieces of valid information and leaks. The faux stuff makes the work of finding the genuine stuff all the more harder. Granted, I've also seen the work of people who are studying aerodynamics in the universities also make their own 3D CG models, but in order to explain their aerodynamic concepts, not for fan purposes. These works provide a tiny window of what's going on with aerodynamic research in China, though in a much more broader sense, not necessarily about a fifth gen fighter.

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