J-20... The New Generation Fighter III

Originally Posted by Air Force Brat

Quickie, its not top secret when the first flight is during the visit of Sec Def Gates, sorry, but it just isn't, and with the F-60 riding around on the back of a flatbed, well somebody is trying to sell airplanes. I wonder how 01 is doing, it seems that things have slowed down on testing/production of further prototypes, I have to wonder if flight tests in the high alpha regime are going well, time will tell I suppose but it would be nice to have a little bit of insight in the process?

I'm afraid it'll be very difficult to judge 2001's progress now, from what I've heard security is extremely tight near Yanliang, with local residents being encouraged to notify authority if they observed any suspicious activities around the airfield. And none of the Chinese military forums are dare to host images from Yanliang.

Originally Posted by hmmwv

I'm afraid it'll be very difficult to judge 2001's progress now, from what I've heard security is extremely tight near Yanliang, with local residents being encouraged to notify authority if they observed any suspicious activities around the airfield. And none of the Chinese military forums are dare to host images from Yanliang.

Stay alert, be aware and speak up, Sounds like PATH.

So there is now 3 prototypes? So that's 6 engines, which means we have a Chinese built high performance 5th generation engine installed on at least one aircraft

I guess we may eventually see half a dozen aircraft for the testing phase before 2015 and small batch production some time after that, before full scale production start

Within 5 years we could start seeing maybe a dozen J20 in operation (SBP and prototypes in total)

Originally Posted by asif iqbal

So there is now 3 prototypes? So that's 6 engines, which means we have a Chinese built high performance 5th generation engine installed on at least one aircraft

I guess we may eventually see half a dozen aircraft for the testing phase before 2015 and small batch production some time after that, before full scale production start

Within 5 years we could start seeing maybe a dozen J20 in operation (SBP and prototypes in total)

Not necessarily, they could be using a variant of WS-10.

Originally Posted by asif iqbal

So there is now 3 prototypes? So that's 6 engines, which means we have a Chinese built high performance 5th generation engine installed on at least one aircraft

I guess we may eventually see half a dozen aircraft for the testing phase before 2015 and small batch production some time after that, before full scale production start

Within 5 years we could start seeing maybe a dozen J20 in operation (SBP and prototypes in total)

Asif, I'm not sure if there are more than two prototypes, as you know, we actually had quite a bit of warning about 2002 and even some grainy photos, it wouldn't surprise me if we had a third bird, but I wouldn't put anything in the bank when it comes to this whole setup. I think the J-20 has been "rolled back" with the end of Raptor production, it prolly affirms both the Chinese and Russian suspicion that BHO is really a paper tiger, and by default the whole US military. I would say the PLAN and Varyag are the priority right now and that is building Chinas defense posture in the region far more effectively than any stealth fighter ever would or could. There is definetly less cash floating around than even six months ago, and I'm fairly certain that the T-50 is also on the back burner, just for lack of news. I think that is one reason the price keeps going up on the Russian resto projects. I think the J-10s "superiority" to the Flankers is more reason to ramp back the J-20. The US has "ramped back" to the F-35, not due to any serious problem with the f-22, but simply because aircraft at this level are so stinkin "pricey" for the perceived benefit, and as the Russians and Chinese have found out, "it ain't that easy".


So life in the manned fighter dept is gettin tougher all over, especially with the US navy trying to trot out the X-47b to trump the USAF, and get more "O'bama Bucks", the USAF has gotten all "touchy feely, feminized", between that and defense sequestration, we will shortly be ramping our whole set up back to 30s levels? BHO has triggered a global slowdown in everyones economy, and if reelected, by this time next year, we may not have enough defense news to fill a teacup?

Well I think it's almost a certainty that they have a 3rd airframe for static testing, but in terms of flying prototypes, there only seems to be two confirmed thus far.

Originally Posted by Air Force Brat

Asif, I'm not sure if there are more than two prototypes, as you know, we actually had quite a bit of warning about 2002 and even some grainy photos, it wouldn't surprise me if we had a third bird, but I wouldn't put anything in the bank when it comes to this whole setup. I think the J-20 has been "rolled back" with the end of Raptor production, it prolly affirms both the Chinese and Russian suspicion that BHO is really a paper tiger, and by default the whole US military. I would say the PLAN and Varyag are the priority right now and that is building Chinas defense posture in the region far more effectively than any stealth fighter ever would or could. There is definetly less cash floating around than even six months ago, and I'm fairly certain that the T-50 is also on the back burner, just for lack of news. I think that is one reason the price keeps going up on the Russian resto projects. I think the J-10s "superiority" to the Flankers is more reason to ramp back the J-20. The US has "ramped back" to the F-35, not due to any serious problem with the f-22, but simply because aircraft at this level are so stinkin "pricey" for the perceived benefit, and as the Russians and Chinese have found out, "it ain't that easy".


So life in the manned fighter dept is gettin tougher all over, especially with the US navy trying to trot out the X-47b to trump the USAF, and get more "O'bama Bucks", the USAF has gotten all "touchy feely, feminized", between that and defense sequestration, we will shortly be ramping our whole set up back to 30s levels? BHO has triggered a global slowdown in everyones economy, and if reelected, by this time next year, we may not have enough defense news to fill a teacup?

Spend more time RnD'ing and less time procuring. Obama probably won't decrease defense spending as it's one of the biggest economic stimulus there is.

Originally Posted by IronsightSniper

Spend more time RnD'ing and less time procuring. Obama probably won't decrease defense spending as it's one of the biggest economic stimulus there is.

He already has lopped about 500 billion off, and come the end of the year there will be another 500 billion off, thats a lot of clams Iron, and beside that, he hasn't really done anything but kill businesses. My point is the global economy is in freefall, and it won't be getting better anytime soon, as the threat diminishes, the need to meet that threat is less critical, hence the apparent slowdown in J-20 developement and production, and really the J-20 needs to "ferment a little", as all designs do and let the data filter down to where it can be dissiminated into hardware.

Originally Posted by plawolf

Well I think it's almost a certainty that they have a 3rd airframe for static testing, but in terms of flying prototypes, there only seems to be two confirmed thus far.

Thanx Wolfie, that is my general understanding as well.

Originally Posted by Air Force Brat

He already has lopped about 500 billion off, and come the end of the year there will be another 500 billion off, thats a lot of clams Iron, and beside that, he hasn't really done anything but kill businesses. My point is the global economy is in freefall, and it won't be getting better anytime soon, as the threat diminishes, the need to meet that threat is less critical, hence the apparent slowdown in J-20 developement and production, and really the J-20 needs to "ferment a little", as all designs do and let the data filter down to where it can be dissiminated into hardware.

There's gonna be a lot of squabling among the brass in the Pentagon for money and big projects in the coming years. Again the US Army and Marines will always get the short end of the stick, while the Air Force and Navy gets all the money for big important toys.

Originally Posted by Equation

There's gonna be a lot of squabling among the brass in the Pentagon for money and big projects in the coming years. Again the US Army and Marines will always get the short end of the stick, while the Air Force and Navy gets all the money for big important toys.

Actually the Army and the Marines have done rather well lately, the Iraq and Ahghanistan shows have been an Army/Marine show, and not much about Air Power or Naval ops other than Airstrikes and Airlift. While you and I normally agree, with the F-35b and V-22, and lots and lots of Helo's and Strikers, plus M-4s and scopes and night vision add infiniteum, the Army and Marines have dones OK, not to mention hummers. Basically the Army and Marines were begging to go back and finish the job that Pres Bush 41 started in Iraq, Pres Bush 43 wanted to clear the family name and said go get em. While I disagreed with the premise, I fully support Pres Bush, and the US military, when BHO cleared out of Irag and rushed back into Afghanistan, I knew we were on the Soviet path to poverty, ie those who don't know history are doomed to repeat it, and would get our own dose of reality, it has been even more miserable that I had imagined. Sorry mods for the off topic rant, feel free to delete or move any or all, I will try to contain my frustration with this present regime, and hope for a brighter morning in November. Any way, while we are spending lots of money on the F-35, we "ditched a far superior aircraft, to play footsie with our partners, who are still depending on us for a JSF, I hope they are not dissapointed, shoot, I hope I'm not dissapointed any more than I already am! I really think the US decision to cancel F-22 production has taken some of the "desire" for a fifth gen out of our neighbors, and they have ditched a few fifth gen concepts and use the term L/O instead of stealth, not to worried about supercruise, and compromised on super manueverability. The J-20 is still on track to be an amazing aircraft, I'm not quite as certain on the T-50, and the F-35 will likely be good enough for govt work? Hope I'm right? But I would feel much better if the F-22 were still in production, but then I am the Air Force Brat!

Originally Posted by Air Force Brat

He already has lopped about 500 billion off, and come the end of the year there will be another 500 billion off, thats a lot of clams Iron, and beside that, he hasn't really done anything but kill businesses. My point is the global economy is in freefall, and it won't be getting better anytime soon, as the threat diminishes, the need to meet that threat is less critical, hence the apparent slowdown in J-20 developement and production, and really the J-20 needs to "ferment a little", as all designs do and let the data filter down to where it can be dissiminated into hardware.

He hasn't "lopped" $500b off, he's lopped $500b off over time. In fact, in Obama's proposed 2013 budget, Defense spending overall is still slated to be over $700b. I'd hate to derail this thread, but the claim that Obama kills businesses is a stupid claim to make for several reasons but I regress. As for the J-20, and indeed the T-50 as well, unless they decide to export those planes to nations that are not exactly pro-American (North Korea, Iran), then you can argue that we have a problem. But as of now, we're just Soviet Union'ing up it and overprocuring for battles that may never come.

Originally Posted by IronsightSniper

He hasn't "lopped" $500b off, he's lopped $500b off over time. In fact, in Obama's proposed 2013 budget, Defense spending overall is still slated to be over $700b. I'd hate to derail this thread, but the claim that Obama kills businesses is a stupid claim to make for several reasons but I regress. As for the J-20, and indeed the T-50 as well, unless they decide to export those planes to nations that are not exactly pro-American (North Korea, Iran), then you can argue that we have a problem. But as of now, we're just Soviet Union'ing up it and overprocuring for battles that may never come.

Agreed, if anything defense spending in US should be cut back, 4% of GDP in a peace time is way than necessary. Also there is a huge amount of waste in the defense industry, I have a friend who works with DOD and defense contractors, some of the story he tells me make the worst Chinese politician look like Mother Teresa.

Originally Posted by jackliu

Agreed, if anything defense spending in US should be cut back, 4% of GDP in a peace time is way than necessary. Also there is a huge amount of waste in the defense industry, I have a friend who works with DOD and defense contractors, some of the story he tells me make the worst Chinese politician look like Mother Teresa.

Nah, I doubt many politicians look like Mother Teresa, she was cute and loved babies, quite unlike those who favor abortion for population control. So lets just stay on topic, my point is that approx 80 million Americans are unemployed due to many of our present regimes policies, that has placed the US in a financially precarious condition that we will not be able to "borrow" our way out of, and yes it is affecting the Chinese economy since we are most likely the largest consumer of their export products. That will affect the J-20 and its developement, which seems to have lost some of the ardor it previously held, I believe in large part, the cancelation of the Raptor has taken some of the "rush" off of getting the J-20 in the air and into LRIP. Much of those resources are likely now being channeled into the ex Varyag, and her sea trials, which is seen as a much higher priority IMHO at present. As a result the J-20 while still a priority seems to be on a "back burner", while the Varyag for obvious reasons is a much higher priority. What "peace time" are you referencing, it seems we are quite up to our keesters in "fun"?