Consequences of Flanker and PAK FA exports for the PACRIM from US-allied perspective?

Kurt i think you discounted the capabilities of the Euro birds and their AFs too much

as with the APA analysis itself, the Flankers are very capable platform, but we need to look at the individual platform these countries bought, the state they are in, pilot training, maintenance level, and their overall effectiveness

and IMO from what i see, these Flankers are far from the overhyped bird-of-prey APA has been iterating over and over (from Australian perspective)
Australia and Singapore can easily handle them, not to mention the RAF, AdA, or the Luftwaffe

why does the JSF seems to 'fail' so hard?
because it's an excellent strategy from a business point of view, make one product for all your different customers that do everything and anything and backflips, so they drop their legacy platforms and stick to the one and only JSF

which is a disaster in military point of view

I don't think PAKFA will ever in the hands of China, because well India has it's money on it. And will cry foul if such event would occur.

Didn't the Russians offer to jointly produce an 5th generation fighter with Chinese capital and joint R&D, but China saw that Russia had more to gain from the joint-venture than vice-versa, and therefore embarked on her own 5th generation fighter program?

It strikes me that Russia would jointly produce an 5th generation fighter with INDIA, and would have never offered the same agreement to China...

Originally Posted by Phead128

Didn't the Russians offer to jointly produce an 5th generation fighter with Chinese capital and joint R&D, but China saw that Russia had more to gain from the joint-venture than vice-versa, and therefore embarked on her own 5th generation fighter program?

It strikes me that Russia would jointly produce an 5th generation fighter with INDIA, and would have never offered the same agreement to China...

Because Chinese is disappointed by what they saw from the PAFKA when offer by Russian , not because Russian will gain more. As proven by their prototype, it Is hardly stealthy. Is cannot even meet Chinese standard of stealthy for a 5th gen fIghter.

Originally Posted by Lion

Because Chinese is disappointed by what they saw from the PAFKA when offer by Russian , not because Russian will gain more. As proven by their prototype, it Is hardly stealthy. Is cannot even meet Chinese standard of stealthy for a 5th gen fIghter.

I don't even think it was offered to the PLA. Due to China's ability to reverse engineer a lot of the high tech weaponry, most countries are reluctant to export their technologies to China, fearing of loss of its own lead and creating potential competition.

Russia is still a formidable competitor in the fighter jet sector. Although their 4th/5th generation fighter didn't come into fruition due to the collapse of the USSR, they already did a lot of groundwork research and testing throughout the 80's and 90's. Even F22 itself had most of its research done in the 80s and finalized in the 90s. I'm sure the Russians probably still have a lot of tricks up their sleeves.

It is actually really surprising that the PAK-FA airframe isn't that stealthy, since it is the easiest part for the Russian engineers, considering their historical expertise in this area, especially when looking at their really mature wind tunnel know-how. If we look at the from the front then move towards rear part of the PAK-FA, it looks like they did a half-ass job. It's like Michael Jackson's face, which the plastic surgeon said, "screw it, I'm going for lunch", half way through the surgery. It literally has the front of F-22, then work just stopped past the mid-line.

But all in all, Russians are still leading (of course, not counting US) the rest of the world in terms of radars, engines, and half a century of engineering expertise. The red empire might no longer exists, but its might still somewhat pass-on. There are still a lot of old engineers and experts that are valuable treasures.

To this day, China still needs Russian assistance in a lot of the aeronautical programs. Hongdu L-15 was assisted by Yakolev, passenger jets like Arj-21 and M-60 received assistance from Antonov, Al-31 are still imported from Russia, the emergency rescue rocket pods on the CZ rockets are still imported from Russia, Russian SibNIA assisted in the finalization of J-10, and many other projects still receive substantial Russian contribution.

But of course, China improved drastically over the last two decades, surpassing Russia in many areas. Chinese semiconductor industry is far ahead of the Russian counterpart, resulting in a lot of better avionics produced at lower price. The AESA radars are great example. The ones equipped on Type 052C and 054A are much more advanced than Russian counterpart. We also spotted AESA radars on J-10 earlier than any Russian counterparts.

But the Chinese aeronautical industry has some natural birth defects since the early days. It was originally set up in the beginning to copy and reverse engineer Soviet weapons. The original plan was to first learn how to copy, then reverse engineer, and eventually transform to self innovation. But the Sino-Soviet split disrupted this growth. The assistance was cut off before they learnt how to properly innovate and design a jet from scratch. Therefore, for the larger part of the Cold War, China had to reverse engineer Soviet weapons. There were countless attempts, such as the Q-6, J-9, J-13, but the first truly successful attempt was not until the J-10 program. So China's true innovation, especially head-on type of R&D, like those in USSR and US was a very recent event, as recent as only 25 years ago with the development of J-10. So China still has a long way to go.

But the bottom line is, China is a rising sun, full of potential and possess a bottomless pocket for money. Its backbone aeronautical engineers are all very young, mostly in their mid 30s and early 40s (read this on an article by Xinhua English). On the contrary, Russia's R&D foundation was mostly dissolved. The old aeronautical engineers either retired or switched jobs, many went abroad. Most of the expertise and accomplishments date back to the pre-dissolution days of the USSR. They barely innovated anything since. However, even their renaming know-how are still beneficial for Chinese to acquire. Like the old Chinese proverb I have heard in the past, a dead camel is still bigger than a horse. Although Russia is no longer at the forefront in pinnacles of technologies, the rest of the world still have a lot they can learn from Russia.

Wow that's a good analysis.

I didn't expect such sensationalist post from you Kurt . Flanker, although a capable platform, is way overrated in my opinion. There is no reason to believe that the regional F15/16 isn't superior to the legacy flankers.

Originally Posted by Vini_Vidi_Vici

To this day, China still needs Russian assistance in a lot of the aeronautical programs. Hongdu L-15 was assisted by Yakolev, passenger jets like Arj-21 and M-60 received assistance from Antonov, Al-31 are still imported from Russia, the emergency rescue rocket pods on the CZ rockets are still imported from Russia, Russian SibNIA assisted in the finalization of J-10, and many other projects still receive substantial Russian contribution.

I think you have a lot of mis info. CZ rocket is never imported. If it is, china cant be declared the 3 rd countries able to independently send human to space.

Ad for J-10, I doubt the much contribution of Russian. Probably in the integration of AL-31FN engine area, since J-10 is a national project. The lesser dependent and leak of secret to foreigner.

China has demonstrated many break thru which soviet has not done it. ASAT in 2007 and mid course interception of ABM outside atmosphere cOnducted in 2010.


As for PAFKA, I believe the Russian at least need to show Chinese the airframe and concept to convinced them to invest. Just like how they get the Chinese to invest in the SU-30MKK project. Chinese being more advance that time, knew PAFKA stealth does not fits Chinese more and more demanding requirement.

I would contest that the true development capabilities of the PLA should be based upon the J-20, rather than the J-10. The J-10 has its israeli roots much like those of the Flanker, except not as transparent. The J-20 however, is a truely distinctive bird, albeit still in testing, but a revolutionary development in China's ability to build airframes.

Originally Posted by drunkmunky

I would contest that the true development capabilities of the PLA should be based upon the J-20, rather than the J-10. The J-10 has its israeli roots much like those of the Flanker, except not as transparent. The J-20 however, is a truely distinctive bird, albeit still in testing, but a revolutionary development in China's ability to build airframes.

This has been repeated thousands of times, and the Chinese have denied it thousands of times as well, is there really any proof? Besides rumors and photo similarities?

Actually Russians did, and actually Russia did so before they went to India.

Two Chinese general, major general Xu Yongling and Dai Hang, have confirmed independantly, during later 1990s to early 2000, Russia offered the joint development of the 5th generation fighter laterly evloved into PAK-FA to the Chinese side.

And after reviewed the technique proposal, the Chinese side simply rejected Russia offer, citing the fact Chinese side dont think the then russian proposal is a truly 5th generation that can handle F-22, which is the primary design requirement for a PLAAF's 5th generation fighter, thats why they rejected the russian offers.

Of cause the pathetic performance of russian fighters aginst J-10 in the mean time also helped Chinese decision(the performance gap between the two, demonstrated in numberous PLAAF military excerices, make you wonder whether they are belong to the same generation of fighters or not) , before that, PLAAF was really a believer of Russian aviations, to the degree they even want to cancel J-10 project to get more money on Su-27s, after experiencing Su-27s advantage against other fighers in PLAAF's arsenal (e.g. MiG-21 level J-7 or MiG-23 level J-8).

And the rest is history.

---------- Post added at 06:40 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:37 PM ----------

I think after J-10 enter service, PLAAF's attiude towards Russian aviations get 180 degree turn, thats why despite of how many time russikies claimed that how hard China want their new aircrafts, there is not a single sign of confirmation, on any fighters russian want to sell, come from China for all these years laterly.[COLOR="Silver"]

Originally Posted by 70092

in the mean time also helped Chinese decision(the performance gap between the two, demonstrated in numberous PLAAF military excerices, make you wonder whether they are belong to the same generation of fighters or not) , before that, PLAAF was really a believer of Russian aviations, to the degree they even want to cancel J-10 project to get more money on Su-27s, after experiencing Su-27s advantage against other fighers in PLAAF's arsenal (e.g. MiG-21 level J-7 or MiG-23 level J-8).

Good thing they didn't cancel, but just imagine at that time Russia was also refusing to sell China their top of the line fighters, but if they did, there will be less motivation for China to develop it is own, so J-10 might not happen, same thing for their AWACS projects.

Originally Posted by drunkmunky

I would contest that the true development capabilities of the PLA should be based upon the J-20, rather than the J-10. The J-10 has its israeli roots much like those of the Flanker, except not as transparent. The J-20 however, is a truely distinctive bird, albeit still in testing, but a revolutionary development in China's ability to build airframes.

By this standard, its pretty obvious to say F-22/F-35 are based on mig-25, and F-15/18 are rip-off of Mig-25, so its safe to say Belenko is the father of american aviation industry.

Originally Posted by 70092

Actually Russians did, and actually Russia did so before they went to India.

Two Chinese general, major general Xu Yongling and Dai Hang, have confirmed independantly, during later 1990s to early 2000, Russia offered the joint development of the 5th generation fighter laterly evloved into PAK-FA to the Chinese side.

And after reviewed the technique proposal, the Chinese side simply rejected Russia offer, citing the fact Chinese side dont think the then russian proposal is a truly 5th generation that can handle F-22, which is the primary design requirement for a PLAAF's 5th generation fighter, thats why they rejected the russian offers.

Of cause the pathetic performance of russian fighters aginst J-10 in the mean time also helped Chinese decision(the performance gap between the two, demonstrated in numberous PLAAF military excerices, make you wonder whether they are belong to the same generation of fighters or not) , before that, PLAAF was really a believer of Russian aviations, to the degree they even want to cancel J-10 project to get more money on Su-27s, after experiencing Su-27s advantage against other fighers in PLAAF's arsenal (e.g. MiG-21 level J-7 or MiG-23 level J-8).

And the rest is history.

---------- Post added at 06:40 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:37 PM ----------

I think after J-10 enter service, PLAAF's attiude towards Russian aviations get 180 degree turn, thats why despite of how many time russikies claimed that how hard China want their new aircrafts, there is not a single sign of confirmation, on any fighters russian want to sell, come from China for all these years laterly.[COLOR="Silver"]

When the heck did Xu yonling become a major General? Pretty sure he was and still is a test flight pilot.

---------- Post added at 07:48 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:48 PM ----------

Originally Posted by 70092

Actually Russians did, and actually Russia did so before they went to India.

Two Chinese general, major general Xu Yongling and Dai Hang, have confirmed independantly, during later 1990s to early 2000, Russia offered the joint development of the 5th generation fighter laterly evloved into PAK-FA to the Chinese side.

And after reviewed the technique proposal, the Chinese side simply rejected Russia offer, citing the fact Chinese side dont think the then russian proposal is a truly 5th generation that can handle F-22, which is the primary design requirement for a PLAAF's 5th generation fighter, thats why they rejected the russian offers.

Of cause the pathetic performance of russian fighters aginst J-10 in the mean time also helped Chinese decision(the performance gap between the two, demonstrated in numberous PLAAF military excerices, make you wonder whether they are belong to the same generation of fighters or not) , before that, PLAAF was really a believer of Russian aviations, to the degree they even want to cancel J-10 project to get more money on Su-27s, after experiencing Su-27s advantage against other fighers in PLAAF's arsenal (e.g. MiG-21 level J-7 or MiG-23 level J-8).

And the rest is history.

---------- Post added at 06:40 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:37 PM ----------

I think after J-10 enter service, PLAAF's attiude towards Russian aviations get 180 degree turn, thats why despite of how many time russikies claimed that how hard China want their new aircrafts, there is not a single sign of confirmation, on any fighters russian want to sell, come from China for all these years laterly.[COLOR="Silver"]

When the heck did Xu yonling become a major General? Pretty sure he was and still is a test flight pilot.