SinoDefence Forum

Gollevainen · 03-19-2008

Suite yourselves. I myself also doupt that Pinkov would fabricate interwievs as well I aknowlidge his analyzes being often quite silly. However I've noticed that sometimes what he is saying are being depunked without any other reasons than his reputation. Those have mainly been reports of some chinese thing actually being derivation of russian things (or actually russian things) for example. Those claims are duly ignored becouse they came from Kanwa but behind there can be seen the acient desire of many posters whom wishes to see china somewhat superior to russia and thus don't like anything russian in the PLA, PLAN or PLAAF.

Ofcourse everyone can use what ever sources they wish, its others task to determine how solid it is. I quess wi shall return to this subject when we next time discuss something said by mr. Pinkov.

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well this thread is now getting a bit boring

Well by all means, try to make it interesting again then, in the limits of the posting code however.

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can we move this to another tread entitled maybe
the rantings of gollevainen?

If you call my above posting a ranting then oh boy, you aint see nothing yet.

Consider yourself officially warned. For additional info, check the warninglist.

tphuang · 05-11-2008

this is the other big news from the past week. The head of SAC basically said that the large transport will have first flight by 2012. It will have the technology for large aircraft final assembly, production of large components of composite material and such. I'm guessing you are probably going to see an aircraft that looks a lot like IL-76.
It's also looking to get MA-600 out and MA-700 design finished.

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一航西飞总裁高大成：确保2012年大型运输机首飞
　　本报讯（记者王彬）昨日，中国航空工业发展高层论坛在阎良举办。记者获悉：未来５年，西飞集团公司将投入约６０亿元资金，完成２８００亩新工业园区建设，突破和掌握大型飞机总装集成、复合材料大型结构件制造、大部件装配等关键技术，在２０１２年实现大型运输机首飞目标。
　　相当于再造一个现有西飞

　　据一航西飞总裁高大成介绍，未来５年，西飞将投入约６０亿元资金，进行深度技术改造，完成２８００亩新工业园区建设，相当于再造一个现有的西飞。同时，加大技术创新力度，突破和掌握大型飞机总装集成、复合材料大型结构件制造、大部件装配等关键技术，确保在２０１２年实现大型运输机首飞目标。

　　尽快推出新舟６００飞机

　　在涡桨支线飞机领域，一航西飞将在新舟６０拓展市场的基础上，完善研发制造、市场营销、融资租赁、用户培训、示范运营、客户支援等“六大平台”建设；尽快推出新舟６００飞机，加快新舟７００飞机研制进程，形成产品系列化发展格局。

　　航空工业高层永久性论坛有望落户阎良

　　由陕西省、上海市政府、天津市政府、中国一航共同主办，一航西飞、西安阎良国家航空产业基地承办的“共享历史机遇，绽放工业之花”大型航空工业发展高层论坛，旨在促进国内航空制造优势地区之间、国内航空工业各相关单位之间的密切合作。目前，各方正在积极争取将中国航空工业发展高层论坛建成一个永久性论坛，每年定期在西安阎良举办。

Also more news, ARJ-21 is guaranteed to have a successful first flight by the end of the year.

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中新网上海5月11日电 (记者孙自法)国家控股的大型客机公司——中国商用飞机有限责任公司(简称中国商飞公司)董事长张庆伟十一日说，确保ARJ21-700新支线飞机今年首飞成功。

中国商飞公司当日在上海举行成立大会，张庆伟在会上致辞时透露了上述信息。他说，中国商飞公司是大型客机项目的主体，也是统筹干线飞机和支线飞机、实现中国民用飞机产业化的主要载体。该公司将重视并处理好干线飞机与支线飞机的科研生产管理，统筹安排科研、生产和条件保障，以确保ARJ21-700新支线飞机今年首飞成功。

去年十二月，中国首架自主知识产权喷气支线客机ARJ21-700飞机在上海飞机制造厂下线，标志着中国在民用飞机科研和制造领域取得突破性进展。(完）

I think this is by head of Commerical aircraft corporation of China, the newly formed company just for airliners.

tphuang · 06-10-2008

The never ending saga of IL-76 situation with the Russians. More words of wisdom by our friend PKF
http://upiasiaonline.com/Security/20...aft_deal/4507/

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Hong Kong, China — For some time, military cooperation between China and Russia has been stalled over a failed deal involving China’s import of Russian Il-76 transport aircraft. China claims that Russia violated the terms of an agreement involving the sale of 38 aircraft. But Russia says this claim is unfair.

Negotiations on the aircraft deal began seven years ago. By the time the contract was signed in 2005, China had agreed to purchase 30 Il-76 transport aircraft and eight Il-78 air-to-air refueling tankers – at an extremely low price. According to a source in the Russian military industry, China initially offered only US$18 million for each plane. The Russian side proposed $22 million, and eventually the two sides settled on a price tag of $20 million per aircraft.

Such a low price was unprecedented in the international transport aircraft market. By comparison, around the same time Jordan had contracted for a variant of the Il-76 at a price of about US$50 million per aircraft.

For this reason, the deal was controversial from the outset. The discussions began in 2001, the contract was signed in 2005 – but in 2008, not a single Il-76 has been delivered.

The aircraft were to be assembled from Russian parts at the Tashkent Aircraft Production Corp. in the Uzbek capital. Out of the 38 aircraft contracted, 15 were already half finished. The others were to be newly manufactured.

The Tashkent company was facing serious financial difficulties, however, and was unable to produce the aircraft according to schedule. This was made worse by the dramatic fluctuation in the value of the U.S. dollar and escalating inflation in Russia – making the cost of producing the transport aircraft much higher than when the deal was originally signed.

According to the Russian side, the Chinese have been unreasonable in refusing to renegotiate the deal in light of changing circumstances.

The Russian source compared the situation with a similar one faced with India over a 2004 deal involving the refurbishing of the aging Gorshkov aircraft carrier. The Russian side was able to hold frank discussions with the Indian side, the source said, and acknowledged that it had made errors in the initial assessment.

The task was to refit the old aircraft carrier, but after dismantling the vessel, Russian engineers realized that the project was practically equivalent to building a brand new aircraft carrier.

“The Indian experts saw the same situation we did, and as a result the two sides could look at the issue with mutual understanding and find a satisfactory solution to the problem,” the source explained.

But the Chinese have been less understanding and less accommodating. They also insist that they will not sign any major military procurement agreement with Russia until this problem is solved to their satisfaction.

The Russians say they are still willing to carry out the agreement and complete the manufacture and delivery of the Il-76 transport aircraft to China. But considering the current reality in Russia and Uzbekistan, the manufacturer feels it is only fair to readjust the price.

A source from Ilyushin Finance told the author recently that the Il-76 dispute with China has made some recent progress. That is, China is now aware of the reality in Russia and is willing to discuss the possibility of signing a new contract. The China side insists, however, that the specific models of the transport aircraft, production sites and prices will all have to be renegotiated.

The Chinese side has also asked to inspect the aircraft production plant before signing a new official agreement. A more feasible plan is that the Chinese side will first inspect the Ulyanovsk Aircraft Factory, which is now preparing for the production of a brand new version of the Il-76, called the Il-476.

The Il-476 is equipped with a full numerical flight-control system, a glass cockpit, and a new-generation PS-90 engine. China is somewhat familiar with the Ulyanovsk Aircraft Factory, which in the past has produced Tu-204 passenger aircraft for China that proved quite satisfactory in quality.

The factory will need to upgrade its equipment to manufacture the Il-476, as currently only 20 percent of the necessary equipment is ready. Fortunately, money is not a problem at the moment. The Ilyushin Group has sufficient financial capability to organize the production.

Russia recently set up the state-owned United Aircraft Corporation, made up of the Ilyushin Group, Sukhoi and MiG. The Tashkent Aircraft Production Corp. has also decided to join this group, with the final signing ceremony to take place within two months. Once the Tashkent company formally joins the state corporation, it may receive new funding and be able to resume its full production capability.

According to the Russian source, China has already initiated preliminary contact with the United Aircraft Corporation to discuss renegotiating the Il-76 transport aircraft deal, but the whole process will take some time. It is not clear when a new agreement would be signed.

The latest developments with regard to the Il-76 deal are exactly in keeping with this author’s prediction – that China would have no alternative to Russia to produce its military transport aircraft.

The question now is what impact China’s recent creation of the J-11B – an illegal copy of Russia’s Su-27 fighter – will have on its renegotiation of the Il-76 deal with the Russians.

just reading this, you wonder what the chances are for China to buy IL-76 if they anticipate the domestic copy will be ready in 5 years and this new factory is clearly not ready for production yet. If it takes 3 years to get the contract signed and equipments purchased. And then the first IL-76 come off the production line will already be around 2011-2012, would this deal be worth it?

montyp165 · 06-10-2008

Quote:

Originally Posted by tphuang

The never ending saga of IL-76 situation with the Russians. More words of wisdom by our friend PKF
http://upiasiaonline.com/Security/20...aft_deal/4507/

just reading this, you wonder what the chances are for China to buy IL-76 if they anticipate the domestic copy will be ready in 5 years and this new factory is clearly not ready for production yet. If it takes 3 years to get the contract signed and equipments purchased. And then the first IL-76 come off the production line will already be around 2011-2012, would this deal be worth it?

If the domestic designed heavy transport is available by then, building Il-76s wouldn't be worthwhile, it all depends on how soon that would be.

sandyj · 06-11-2008

China Ready for Negotiations with Russia on Relook at Contract Conditions for Il-76 Transport and Il-78 Tanker Delivery

((China wants 34 Il-76 and four Il-78. The aircraft would be assembled at Ul'yanovsk's Aviatstar-SP plant. Not further translated.))

Source: 11.06.08, ARMS-TASS

nonpilot · 06-11-2008

Could China use a modified A320 in the tanker role, military transport, or even AWACS? It seems they got burn by Russia on this before I assume the IL-76/78 can haul more and are true military frames but seeing this article made me think of it.

A article I found
DATE:28/05/08
SOURCE:Flight International
Chinese A320 assembly line poised to begin production
By Max Kingsley-Jones

Airbus is preparing to ship sections for the first Chinese-built A320 to the assembly line in Tianjin, with production scheduled to begin in August this year.

All the major components for the Chinese line will be transported by container ship via the existing final assembly line (FAL) in Finkenwerder, Hamburg, which will be the “virtual first assembly station” for Tianjin, says Airbus A320 family programme chief Alain Flourens.

“On 24 June we shall send from the Finkenwerder the first components – fuselage, wing and empennage – to the Chinese FAL. Assembly will begin on 18 August,” says Flourens.

The aircraft sections, on transportation jigs will go by barge from the Finkenwerder factory to the Hamburg container port where they will be loaded directly onto the container ship for transportation to the port of Tianjin. From here they will make a 20km (12 miles) journey by road to the Tianjin Airbus facility.

The Chinese FAL building, which is already completed, is a “copy and paste of the Hamburg one in order to have the same processes, documentation and so on”, says Flourens. It will be able to produce both the A319 and A320, he adds.

The first Chinese delivery – to Sichuan Airlines – is scheduled to take place in June next year, and Tianjin production will eventually expand to four aircraft a month. The long lead time from assembly start to first delivery is required as “the jigs and the processes have to be qualified locally”, says Flourens.

While the FAL is a joint venture, the delivery centre is an all-Airbus affair, says Flourens: “Once the aircraft is ready for delivery it will be handed over to the newly built Airbus delivery centre, which will make all the relationships with the customer.”

A320 family output is due to reach 40 a month in 2010, of which four will be built in China, 14 in Toulouse and 22 in Hamburg, says Flourens.

He adds that the current level of orders from Chinese airlines exceeds the Tianjin FAL’s capability, so the balance will be provided by the Toulouse and Hamburg lines.

While Tianjin could produce up to seven aircraft a month with minor adaptations “but today it is not planned to go above four”, says Flourens.

Link
http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...roduction.html

Pointblank · 06-11-2008

Quote:

Originally Posted by nonpilot

Could China use a modified A320 in the tanker role, military transport, or even AWACS? It seems they got burn by Russia on this before I assume the IL-76/78 can haul more and are true military frames but seeing this article made me think of it.

Not likely... wrong design for starters... not to mention the many other show stoppers...

flyzies · 06-12-2008

All A320s that plant builds will be for Airbus only,not the PLA; as that factory belongs to Airbus.

FugitiveVisions · 06-12-2008

A Chinese plane might be able to fight in five years, but it doesn't necessarily mean that it will be ready for mass production. Take into account aerodynamic changes needed for AEW variants, the timeframe may be extended by another year. So get this Il-76 deal done and win some oil concessions.

tphuang · 06-12-2008

Quote:

Originally Posted by FugitiveVisions

A Chinese plane might be able to fight in five years, but it doesn't necessarily mean that it will be ready for mass production. Take into account aerodynamic changes needed for AEW variants, the timeframe may be extended by another year. So get this Il-76 deal done and win some oil concessions.

fly in less than 4 years, if it looks a lot like IL-76, then there is not much extra changes needed. Besides, by then you can just convert all the existing IL-76. You are not getting any oil concessions. It's totally separate issue from arms trade.

FugitiveVisions · 06-12-2008

Quote:

Originally Posted by tphuang

fly in less than 4 years, if it looks a lot like IL-76, then there is not much extra changes needed. Besides, by then you can just convert all the existing IL-76. You are not getting any oil concessions. It's totally separate issue from arms trade.

Whether the Chinese will ultimately win oil concessions is one issue, but to say that China can not obtain any leverage from the arms trade is incorrect. In fact, recent reports suggest that China has obtained Russian acquiscence on the J-11B issue by pledging its opposition to the American missile defence. Any national matters, relating to trade, energy, security, culture can be used as leverage in any kind of interstate negotiations.

And the Chinese plane would have to be flying in a lot less than 4 years for it to be certified for full production in 5. Testing, maintenance, reliability and training are all things that you can't ignore.

Lastly, IL-76 is needed for much more than just AWACS platforms. The country is in a dire need for strategic airlift capabilities, and the result of not having enough for your military is that you would have to rely on civilian chartered planes to do the job, which is certainly not going to cut it in wartime.

tphuang · 06-12-2008

Quote:

Originally Posted by FugitiveVisions

Whether the Chinese will ultimately win oil concessions is one issue, but to say that China can not obtain any leverage from the arms trade is incorrect. In fact, recent reports suggest that China has obtained Russian acquiscence on the J-11B issue by pledging its opposition to the American missile defence. Any national matters, relating to trade, energy, security, culture can be used as leverage in any kind of interstate negotiations.

don't pretend to know what happened behind the scenes with J-11B.

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And the Chinese plane would have to be flying in a lot less than 4 years for it to be certified for full production in 5. Testing, maintenance, reliability and training are all things that you can't ignore.

as mentioned before, the short term project they work on is very similar to IL-76. And if the story about Uzbekistan is true, they are far more along getting some kind of a production line set up than people think. Besides, does anyone really think the new Russian plant can produce IL-76 that quickly?

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Lastly, IL-76 is needed for much more than just AWACS platforms. The country is in a dire need for strategic airlift capabilities, and the result of not having enough for your military is that you would have to rely on civilian chartered planes to do the job, which is certainly not going to cut it in wartime.

you don't need to lecture me on where IL-76 is needed for. Point is, even if the new transport is not ready for other missions, you can use convert existing IL-76 and then get the new transport to replace the IL-76s.

FugitiveVisions · 06-12-2008

My apologies for baseless speculations. Cheers to China's new plane!

Eurofighter · 06-13-2008

Quote:

Originally Posted by tphuang

just reading this, you wonder what the chances are for China to buy IL-76 if they anticipate the domestic copy will be ready in 5 years and this new factory is clearly not ready for production yet. If it takes 3 years to get the contract signed and equipments purchased. And then the first IL-76 come off the production line will already be around 2011-2012, would this deal be worth it?

honestly I didn't know they have a program going on to copy the Il-76. All I know is that they are trying to produce a c-17 alike before 2020.

if you are kind enough to provide it, I would be happy to get more informed on this Il-76 copy.

tphuang · 06-13-2008

Quote:

Originally Posted by Eurofighter

honestly I didn't know they have a program going on to copy the Il-76. All I know is that they are trying to produce a c-17 alike before 2020.

if you are kind enough to provide it, I would be happy to get more informed on this Il-76 copy.

well, a couple of things, if you read previously in this thread, there was a discussion on that. Plus, with the XAC making that announcement about 2012, most people suspect that it has to look a lot like IL-76, otherwise there is no way it can come out that fast.

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