China's Aerospace industry

Originally Posted by Asymptote

I was just thinking from the discussion of another thread :








Now, what kind of aircrafts are China developing and producing today??


The latest focus is still improving J-8, a 2nd/3rd generation fighter that's 40+ years old (and 50+ years old from western standard).

The latest export to Pakistan the JF-17 / FC-1 is at best a 4th generation fighter in the same class as F-16, but more likely 3rd generation fighter in the same class as Northrop F-5...


And China is still developing the J-11B!!

It is plenty obvious to every logical/sensible observer to come to the conclusion - China is still technologically/infrastructurally/institutionally far behind the west and Russia by atleast 30+ YEARS in aviation (in the space arena? 50+ years).


I will say it again, at the most optimistic projection - China will have 5th generation fighter by 2030 or later. The AVIC will continue its development at a snail pace - "polishing" and SUPERFICIALLY IMPROVING the J-10, J-11B (probably putting DSI and other superficial crap that actually decrease the performance) until its finally "on par" with the original design they were cloning/"inspired" from (J-10 : F-16/IAI Lavi/Eurofighter Typhoon; J-11B: Su-27/Su-30/Su-35/Su-37).


I am willing to bet AVIC doesn't even have a blueprint of "5th generation" fighter on their table even right now - and it won't until 2020 or later. It will have to wait until it digested the lesson from 3rd/4th generation, and learn from video and abroad the Russian/American 5th generation before it can even try to attempt on its own.


To Rhino123 : This is what I am asking you :
Now, what kind of aircrafts are China developing and producing today??

Since this thread is carry forward from another thread, I will repost my question to you,

I am very interested in the following,

1) What was your assessment based on? Do you actually have insider info into Chinese aerospace industries?
2) What is your basis for J-10 being clone/inspired of or whatever you chose to call for F16/IAI lavi/Eurofighter?
3) I am not seeing any reference in your post, just alot of your own assessment, and unless you are a credible source yourself, whatever you say is just wishful thinking.
4) and base on what did you say that everything put on the existing aircraft are crap and would decrease the performance of the aircraft?

Is it because it is just China that is doing those things and so it must be lousy?

And as to your questions to me,

Developed and produced (past) - J7, J8
Developed and produced (recent)- J-10, JH-7
License produce: J11
developing: J-XX, J11B, J15, various unmanned vehicles
Co-developement project - FC-1

Not to mention a number of trainers, and light fighters like the JL-9, L-15, etc.

Regarding your question if I am bias about the improvement made by China and production capabilities and reliabilities - I was referring to the DSI which aerodynamically only works optimally in certain condition - as the word 'aero-dynamic" already imply the air is dynamically changing condition! The shaping of DSI only worsen its aerodynamic performance (a cost trade off for the engine face to be hidden from radar signature return). China will do 'studies' to various airframe configurations, but judging from the current research, it seems China is still very limiting in its research and development. (Look at US/Russian aerospace development for example - Su-series and F-series and X-Series)


Another thing I found it astounding is the absurd assertion from the Chinese press that "China's AVIC will "break" the Boeing/Airbus "duopoly".... something that's so laughable I can't believe it myself.
China's aerospace industry is still largely in its INFANCY...compare to the titans of the west. China can't even dream of comparing itself to the likes Brazil's Embraer which is third largest aircraft manufacturer in the world! Let's not forget Tupolev, BAE, Gulfstream, SAAB...etc etc.



Talk about SAAB, that reminds me China has heaps of catchup to do - It can't even compare to Sweden (SAAB Gripen) ! A tiny country with a small population. There are also the French Dassault Aviation (Mirage/Rafale) etc..

Originally Posted by Asymptote

I was just thinking from the discussion of another thread :








Now, what kind of aircrafts are China developing and producing today??


The latest focus is still improving J-8, a 2nd/3rd generation fighter that's 40+ years old (and 50+ years old from western standard).

The latest export to Pakistan the JF-17 / FC-1 is at best a 4th generation fighter in the same class as F-16, but more likely 3rd generation fighter in the same class as Northrop F-5...


And China is still developing the J-11B!!

It is plenty obvious to every logical/sensible observer to come to the conclusion - China is still technologically/infrastructurally/institutionally far behind the west and Russia by atleast 30+ YEARS in aviation (in the space arena? 50+ years).


I will say it again, at the most optimistic projection - China will have 5th generation fighter by 2030 or later. The AVIC will continue its development at a snail pace - "polishing" and SUPERFICIALLY IMPROVING the J-10, J-11B (probably putting DSI and other superficial crap that actually decrease the performance) until its finally "on par" with the original design they were cloning/"inspired" from (J-10 : F-16/IAI Lavi/Eurofighter Typhoon; J-11B: Su-27/Su-30/Su-35/Su-37).


I am willing to bet AVIC doesn't even have a blueprint of "5th generation" fighter on their table even right now - and it won't until 2020 or later. It will have to wait until it digested the lesson from 3rd/4th generation, and learn from video and abroad the Russian/American 5th generation before it can even try to attempt on its own.


To Rhino123 : This is what I am asking you :
Now, what kind of aircrafts are China developing and producing today??

Please take your time to read posts of others before making a thread.

You are a lost boy!

Originally Posted by rhino123

Since this thread is carry forward from another thread, I will repost my question to you,

I am very interested in the following,

1) What was your assessment based on? Do you actually have insider info into Chinese aerospace industries?
2) What is your basis for J-10 being clone/inspired of or whatever you chose to call for F16/IAI lavi/Eurofighter?
3) I am not seeing any reference in your post, just alot of your own assessment, and unless you are a credible source yourself, whatever you say is just wishful thinking.
4) and base on what did you say that everything put on the existing aircraft are crap and would decrease the performance of the aircraft?

Is it because it is just China that is doing those things and so it must be lousy?

And as to your questions to me,

Developed and produced (past) - J7, J8
Developed and produced (recent)- J-10, JH-7
License produce: J11
developing: J-XX, J11B, J15, various unmanned vehicles
Co-developement project - FC-1

Not to mention a number of trainers, and light fighters like the JL-9, L-15, etc.

Regarding your first 4 questions - which is mostly about my credentials - this is the internet I can say whatever the credential I want to make you believe, but that's not truthful and it doesn't contribute to this discussion at all.

I will just say, FC-1 is probably the most recent indigenous design/manufactured Chinese/Pakistan fighter aircraft I have seen. The design speaks for itself - it is the design that China/Pakistan is most comfortable in making.
It shows the level of technological capability that China is currently capable of designing. And from performance point of view - and I take the most conservative estimate here - its more like F-5E then F16. Why? Because what makes F-16 a F-16 and not a F-5E is the avionics, the refinement in airframe and aerodynamics, and all round refinements - And Pakistan actually wants to gut all the avionics out of FC-1 and replace with European Avionics - which makes only the airframe that's actually from China - and the airframe looks more like F-5E than F16!
And let's put it this way, if you are going to put into an aircraft of your choosing - would you choose FC-1/J-10 or SAAB Gripen or Dassault Rafale?
Do you see how much of generational gap between them?? (remember Gripen and Rafale were developed almost 20+ years ago)


And what generation would you class FC-1 in? In all honesty and fairness? (comparing to the likes of F-5E, F16, Gripen and Rafale)

Originally Posted by Asymptote

Regarding your question if I am bias about the improvement made by China and production capabilities and reliabilities - I was referring to the DSI which aerodynamically only works optimally in certain condition - as the word 'aero-dynamic" already imply the air is dynamically changing condition! The shaping of DSI only worsen its aerodynamic performance (a cost trade off for the engine face to be hidden from radar signature return). China will do 'studies' to various airframe configurations, but judging from the current research, it seems China is still very limiting in its research and development. (Look at US/Russian aerospace development for example - Su-series and F-series and X-Series)


Another thing I found it astounding is the absurd assertion from the Chinese press that "China's AVIC will "break" the Boeing/Airbus "duopoly".... something that's so laughable I can't believe it myself.
China's aerospace industry is still largely in its INFANCY...compare to the titans of the west. China can't even dream of comparing itself to the likes Brazil's Embraer which is third largest aircraft manufacturer in the world! Let's not forget Tupolev, BAE, Gulfstream, SAAB...etc etc.



Talk about SAAB, that reminds me China has heaps of catchup to do - It can't even compare to Sweden (SAAB Gripen) ! A tiny country with a small population. There are also the French Dassault Aviation (Mirage/Rafale) etc..

Well then you have nothing to worry about, do you? Just like China won't be able to conduct an ASAT test for another ten years.

I think the aircraft engine is a more daunting challenge ... much more than designing planes.

When J-10 completely shift to WS-10A, it will be a significant leap forward.

But as of now, just to quote the "notorious" wikipedia:

"However, given the poor quality of the engine and other development difficulties, the PLAAF is reluctant to integrate the WS-10 onto the aircraft."

Chengdu J-10 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Originally Posted by Asymptote

Regarding your question if I am bias about the improvement made by China and production capabilities and reliabilities - I was referring to the DSI which aerodynamically only works optimally in certain condition - as the word 'aero-dynamic" already imply the air is dynamically changing condition! The shaping of DSI only worsen its aerodynamic performance (a cost trade off for the engine face to be hidden from radar signature return). China will do 'studies' to various airframe configurations, but judging from the current research, it seems China is still very limiting in its research and development. (Look at US/Russian aerospace development for example - Su-series and F-series and X-Series)


Another thing I found it astounding is the absurd assertion from the Chinese press that "China's AVIC will "break" the Boeing/Airbus "duopoly".... something that's so laughable I can't believe it myself.
China's aerospace industry is still largely in its INFANCY...compare to the titans of the west. China can't even dream of comparing itself to the likes Brazil's Embraer which is third largest aircraft manufacturer in the world! Let's not forget Tupolev, BAE, Gulfstream, SAAB...etc etc.



Talk about SAAB, that reminds me China has heaps of catchup to do - It can't even compare to Sweden (SAAB Gripen) ! A tiny country with a small population. There are also the French Dassault Aviation (Mirage/Rafale) etc..

From what we can see and the developement speed of Chinese fighters, she is pretty much moving up the ladder and at an incredible rate, given that her technological advancement only started going off in recent decades, unlike the west who are flying since the WWI.

I am not saying that China's aerospace industries are better than the Western aerospace industries such as Boeing and BAe. But the gap is closing. We might be seeing much better fighters than the J-10 and J-11B in coming years.

I do question the Chinese press's claim of breaking the Boeing/Airbus duopoly status too, but that is the press's claim, not the official claim or the government's claim.

And don't you even underestimate the capability of Sweden. Yes, she is a small country with a small population... but she is also the first country that actually created a supersonic fighter. Also don't ever underestimate any small nation. Look to Japan... during WWII, they created the fastest fighter in the world - Zero Fighter. Do not ever measure the capability of a nation due to its size and the size of her population.

Originally Posted by AssassinsMace

Well then you have nothing to worry about, do you? Just like China won't be able to conduct an ASAT test for another ten years.

I am worrying!
The external threat around China are multiplying at accelerated rate.
The US is leading the "containment" strategy while supplying its puppet allies with advance weaponry (Even the Russians are doing the same too).

Originally Posted by Asymptote

Regarding your question if I am bias about the improvement made by China and production capabilities and reliabilities - I was referring to the DSI which aerodynamically only works optimally in certain condition - as the word 'aero-dynamic" already imply the air is dynamically changing condition! The shaping of DSI only worsen its aerodynamic performance (a cost trade off for the engine face to be hidden from radar signature return). China will do 'studies' to various airframe configurations, but judging from the current research, it seems China is still very limiting in its research and development. (Look at US/Russian aerospace development for example - Su-series and F-series and X-Series)


Another thing I found it astounding is the absurd assertion from the Chinese press that "China's AVIC will "break" the Boeing/Airbus "duopoly".... something that's so laughable I can't believe it myself.
China's aerospace industry is still largely in its INFANCY...compare to the titans of the west. China can't even dream of comparing itself to the likes Brazil's Embraer which is third largest aircraft manufacturer in the world! Let's not forget Tupolev, BAE, Gulfstream, SAAB...etc etc.



Talk about SAAB, that reminds me China has heaps of catchup to do - It can't even compare to Sweden (SAAB Gripen) ! A tiny country with a small population. There are also the French Dassault Aviation (Mirage/Rafale) etc..

How exactly does DSIntakes exactly worsen aerodynamic performance? This isn't a challenge but a real question -- can you explain the physics of it? (From my reading, it doesn't limit aerodynamic performance -- there was an american article on Lockheed Martin testing DSI on an F-16 and discovering that the the performance was the same as a normal intake.)

And media from all countries become sensational every now and then; I don't think anyone seriously thinks that COMAC will break Airbus and Boeing's duopoly any time in the forseeable future.

I do question what you mean by "It can't even compare to Sweden" -- are you saying that China hasn't made any aerospace achievements which are comparable or superior to the Gripen? (I get the feeling that you're implying the J-10, J-11B, JF-17 etc are all miles inferior to the Gripen, in which case we'll have to assess the planes individually).

On your claim that China is limited in research and development -- just because they don't choose to proclaim to the world that they have something doesn't mean they don't have it. I know that may seem a stupid and wishful way of thinking but... really? Do you really think that all china can undertake is " "studies" to various airframe configurations" ???

Originally Posted by rhino123

I do question the Chinese press's claim of breaking the Boeing/Airbus duopoly status too, but that is the press's claim, not the official claim or the government's claim.

Most people outside China, don't differentiate between Chinese press and the Chinese govt -- wrongly or rightly, I do not know. It's a perception.

Anyway, I do buy the claim about China venturing into breaking the duopoly.

Why doesn't China simply reverse engineer Boeing 737 or A-320 ?

Second, why can't China reverse engineer an aircraft engine, too.

It did manage to reverse engineer the engine used for Mig-21 also.

Also, J-11 is reverse engineered Su-27 .. but what engine powers the J-11, as of now? Is Russia okay to provide engines for it's own reverse engineered planes ?

Originally Posted by rhino123

From what we can see and the developement speed of Chinese fighters, she is pretty much moving up the ladder and at an incredible rate, given that her technological advancement only started going off in recent decades, unlike the west who are flying since the WWI.

I am not saying that China's aerospace industries are better than the Western aerospace industries such as Boeing and BAe. But the gap is closing. We might be seeing much better fighters than the J-10 and J-11B in coming years.

I do question the Chinese press's claim of breaking the Boeing/Airbus duopoly status too, but that is the press's claim, not the official claim or the government's claim.

And don't you even underestimate the capability of Sweden. Yes, she is a small country with a small population... but she is also the first country that actually created a supersonic fighter. Also don't ever underestimate any small nation. Look to Japan... during WWII, they created the fastest fighter in the world - Zero Fighter. Do not ever measure the capability of a nation due to its size and the size of her population.

Rhino123, I think its easy to catch up on the early phase of any technological development because the level of knowledge is shallow. First Generation, 2nd Generation fighters are relatively simple in today's term. But as technology advances, the COMPLEXITY INCREASES EXPONENTIALLY, there are more details, knowledge base, production/manufacturing and material science details to consider - Just look at US/Russian aviation development - The early 1950s had few fighters because it was the beginning of jet fighter era - but once they understand it - many, MANY variants of fighter jet design suddenly spring up (F-104, F4, F5, Mig series etc), but then the technological complexity becomes so vast - it becomes the bottleneck again (witness US taking 20 years to produce 1 variant of this generation - F-22 and still developing another variant).


The number of variants of design in my eyes count for something because it shows the depth of knowledge and the mastery requires before one can go to the next level. And right now China doesn't seem to produce many indigenous designs compare to the Russian/US/EU, and that's what worries me.

Originally Posted by bingo

Most people outside China, don't differentiate between Chinese press and the Chinese govt -- wrongly or rightly, I do not know. It's a perception.

Anyway, I do buy the claim about China venturing into breaking the duopoly.

Why doesn't China simply reverse engineer Boeing 737 or A-320 ?

Second, why can't China reverse engineer an aircraft engine, too.

It did manage to reverse engineer the engine used for Mig-21 also.

Also, J-11 is reverse engineered Su-27 .. but what engine powers the J-11, as of now? Is Russia okay to provide engines for it's own reverse engineered planes ?

As to China breaking the duopoly of Boeing/airbus, I don't see the chance of that, at least at the present. She might be quite good at manufacturing small fighters but till date, she didn't have a huge passenger plane. The recent passenger plane that China build is still consider small as compared to the airbus and Boeing.

As for the Mig-21, the engine is by far less complicated and it was the 60s technology. China could reverse engineered and even improve on these engines, but as mentioned, they are low tech as compared to the Su 27 series of fighters' engines.

I do not think J-11 is being powered by Chinese engines at this moment, all of them are still using Russian engines. China build alot of J-11 using Russian's kits as part of the licence produce agreement. Later they built their own J-11, still powered by the Russian's engine. J-11B might be using the WS-10A (not sure).

Actually reverse engineering is not a simple task. Not everything can be reverse engineered without full understanding of what is going on inside. Modern engines are not like old engines, they have lots of electronic and digital controls and huge amount of other mumbo jumbo. These things are not easily reverse engineered.

Also I believe that China is moving slowly away from the trend of reverse engineering products and instead going towards indigenious design and production like what most countries of some status is doing.

Originally Posted by Asymptote

I was just thinking from the discussion of another thread :








Now, what kind of aircrafts are China developing and producing today??


The latest focus is still improving J-8, a 2nd/3rd generation fighter that's 40+ years old (and 50+ years old from western standard).

The latest export to Pakistan the JF-17 / FC-1 is at best a 4th generation fighter in the same class as F-16, but more likely 3rd generation fighter in the same class as Northrop F-5...


And China is still developing the J-11B!!

It is plenty obvious to every logical/sensible observer to come to the conclusion - China is still technologically/infrastructurally/institutionally far behind the west and Russia by atleast 30+ YEARS in aviation (in the space arena? 50+ years).


I will say it again, at the most optimistic projection - China will have 5th generation fighter by 2030 or later. The AVIC will continue its development at a snail pace - "polishing" and SUPERFICIALLY IMPROVING the J-10, J-11B (probably putting DSI and other superficial crap that actually decrease the performance) until its finally "on par" with the original design they were cloning/"inspired" from (J-10 : F-16/IAI Lavi/Eurofighter Typhoon; J-11B: Su-27/Su-30/Su-35/Su-37).


I am willing to bet AVIC doesn't even have a blueprint of "5th generation" fighter on their table even right now - and it won't until 2020 or later. It will have to wait until it digested the lesson from 3rd/4th generation, and learn from video and abroad the Russian/American 5th generation before it can even try to attempt on its own.


To Rhino123 : This is what I am asking you :
Now, what kind of aircrafts are China developing and producing today??

I'm sorry, but WTF??
"The latest focus is still improving the J-8"...????
By latest, do you mean the most recent? (If they came out with a plan yesterday to install some new avionics or whatever to existing J-8's then sure I'll bite -- but you make it sound like all the development is going to the J-8!)
Haven't you heard of the J-10B, J-11B, J-15?

And what do you mean by superficially improving the J-10 and J-11B? I'll understand if you say the J-11B is/was moving along a bit slow, but superficial improvements?? If you want to compare the J-11B to the Flankers China received back in the 90's...
And the J-10B, simply from pictures is obviously much more capable than the J-10, even if the posts of it having AESA radar were false.

You also claim that the J-10, J-11B were "cloned" from the F-16, Lavi, Eurofighter and Flanker series, respectively... No one is saying the J-11B isn't a "clone" of a flanker -- but it's plain ignorant to say "oh it looks the same therefore it performs the same" (which is what you're implying at least). New materials, avionics, engines have an impact on performance as well... At least I am certain that the J-11B isn't a decrease in performance from the PLAAF's old Su-27's...
And really, do you want to get into the argument that J-10 is a clone of F-16/Lavi/Eurofighter? (Let's through gripen and rafale in the mix as well, just for fun eh?...)

On China getting 5th gen fighters... I can direct to the CCTV interview of the PLAAF general saying that they will get 5th gen fighters from 2017-2019 (onlast year's airforce day), and that a general wouldn't be making such a claim if they weren't completely certain that such an event would be guaranteed (espicially so as China is very sensitive about face -- if a 5th gen fighter didn't emerge 2017-2019 then it woudl be quite a loss of face)...

But really I think the best compromise would be simply to wait a couple of decades and then come back to this question with a definite answer.


(Btw; it's quite ridiculous to call the Jf-17 comparable to the F-5/third generation... Did third generation planes have MRAAM (fire and forget) missiles? Fly by wire? And the JF-17 can be modified for varying avionics, so if a client decides to install an AESA...)

Originally Posted by Asymptote

The Chinese had to start somewhere, don't they. Even the US, Russian, French, Germany and UK started somewhere and at some place. R&D is not like it can speed up light years by just throwing money into it (I remember someone saying this in this forum, so I just quote him).

The Chinese is moving at the right direction and as long as they keep moving in this direction, they are going to make it pretty quickly too.

The reason for the US to take so long in coming out with very high tech products such as the F-22 was the fact that she was the only country creating this product with no precedent. And so many things are trial and error.

The Chinese although started later... might get there quicker, because they learn from what mistakes others make... even if those mistakes are not published. And also appearance of these aircrafts, would have given the Chinese valuable insight into designing stealth aircrafts too.

When the US started designing the B-2 and F117, they are the first in stealth technology... nothing to fall back on. But as time past, stealth technology matured and the Chinese learned, they will be able to come up with similar design. Look at Japanese car industries in the 50s... they are nowhere near the European's car design, look again at their industries in the 70s, then 80s... they have practically slaughtered european car industries.