China scrambles J10s to intercept Japanese F15s

Originally Posted by Lezt

So it flares up again.

Japan talk of warning shots heats up China dispute - Yahoo! News

TOKYO (AP) — Japan says it may fire warning shots and take other measures to keep foreign aircraft from violating its airspace in the latest verbal blast between Tokyo and Beijing that raises concerns that a dispute over hotly contested islands could spin out of control.
Japanese officials made the comments after Chinese fighters tailed its warplanes near the islands recently. The incident is believed to be the first scrambling of Chinese fighters since the tensions began to rise last spring.
According to Chinese media, a pair of J-10 fighters was scrambled after Japanese F-15s began tailing a Chinese surveillance plane near the disputed islands in the East China Sea. China has complained the surveillance flight did not violate Japanese airspace and the F-15s were harassing it.
It was the first time the Chinese media has reported fighters being mobilized to respond to Japanese air force activity in the area and comes amid what Japan says is a rapid intensification of Chinese air force activity around the islands, where Japanese and Chinese coast guard ships have squared off for months.
Though there have been no outright clashes, the increased sea and air operations have fueled worries that the situation could spin out of control.
Such concerns have grown over official comments suggesting new Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his Cabinet are considering the use of "tracer" fire as a means of responding to airspace incursions. Tracer rounds are designed to burn brightly to get the attention of a pilot who may have missed other warnings due to a radio malfunction, while also indicating that the aircraft firing them is prepared to take further action.
"Every country has procedures for how to deal with a violation of its territory that continues after multiple cautionary measures," Japanese Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera said Wednesday when asked if tracer shots would be fired against intruding aircraft that refuse to change course. "We have response measures ready that are consistent with global standards."
Onodera said the use of warning shots has long been provided for under Japan's defense policies and is widely accepted under international rules of engagement. Japan's air force has not actually resorted to them since 1987 — against a Soviet aircraft — and none were fired last week.
But Chinese and Japanese media have suggested Tokyo is publicly floating the possibility to test China's reaction.
The escalation of tensions has worried the United States, with Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton saying Friday that while the U.S. doesn't take a position on who has sovereignty over the islands, it opposes "any unilateral actions that would seek to undermine Japanese administration."
That brought a sharp retort from the Chinese Foreign Ministry on Sunday. The comments "ignore the facts" that the islands are China's inherent territory, spokesman Qin Gang said in a statement that urged the U.S. to adopt "a responsible attitude."
In Beijing last week, a Foreign Ministry spokesman said China is on "high alert" and suggested Japan is escalating the tensions over the islands, called the Diaoyu in China and the Senkaku in Japan. Taiwan also claims the small isles, which are uninhabited but may be surrounded by valuable underwater natural resources.
"Chinese planes and ships are exercising normal jurisdiction in the waters and airspace surrounding the Diaoyu Islands," spokesman Hong Lei said. "We are opposed to the operations of Japan's planes and ships, which violate our rights around Diaoyu. We are on high alert against this escalation."
As is often the case, Chinese media quoted military academics with a much more fiery response.
"Japan's desire to fire tracer warning shots as a way of frightening the Chinese is nothing but a joke that shows the stupidity, cruelty and failure to understand their own limitations," Maj. Gen. Peng Guangqian of the Chinese Academy of Military Sciences was quoted as saying by the China News Service and other state media.
"Firing tracer bullets is a type of provocation; it's firing the first shot," he said. "Were Japan to dare to fire tracers, which is to say fire the first shot, then China wouldn't stint on responding and not allow them to fire the second shot."
Peng said Japan may have put out the report to generate discussion and gauge China's response.
___

They're going to fire warning shots at aircraft flying through their claimed EEZ? That's crazy. EEZs are not territorial waters. China would have a clear, legitimate casus belli if the Japanese side pursued such a course of action.

Interesting how the Western media is getting slow with the news. The internet has truely revolutionized the way people get information. There was already the Japan Times article way before this that stated the US has warned Japan not to provoke the Chinese by this action.

Originally Posted by AssassinsMace

Interesting how the Western media is getting slow with the news.

Sometimes the 'media' only illuminate news to the extent that some wants it to.

Or maybe it is just attention spans, this incident is kind of dragging out for quite a bit.

If my initial estimation of a possibility of conflict bursting out of control were 2%, now it's 40%, and probably if things continue it will heed to 60%. Neither is good. It does make me wonder what kind of incident may we see as a result of such outbreaks

hmm..just a comparition betwen news articles from the same story: one coming from bloomberg (US) and another one from japan times. How media from the two nations see things differently.

China Seeks Peaceful Solution to Disputes as Japan Pledges Calm - Bloomberg

U.S. warns China to steer clear of Senkakus | The Japan Times Online

Originally Posted by AssassinsMace

Interesting how the Western media is getting slow with the news. The internet has truely revolutionized the way people get information. There was already the Japan Times article way before this that stated the US has warned Japan not to provoke the Chinese by this action.

Eh, I wouldn't call them slow. I saw this on AP about when it happened. This is just one of those rehashed articles.

http://m.apnews.com/ap/db_15811/cont...tguid=JGIkG93R

Originally Posted by airsuperiority

If my initial estimation of a possibility of conflict bursting out of control were 2%, now it's 40%, and probably if things continue it will heed to 60%. Neither is good. It does make me wonder what kind of incident may we see as a result of such outbreaks

I say 10-20%. If they do exchange fire, both sides will pull back rather quickly. Neither side wants to give a gut punch to the global economy while its this fragile, and Abe will need to maintain some kind of relationship with China for Japan's economy.

double post

The chinese economic warfare is still ongoing against Japan. Lots of Chinese people are still boycotting Japanese goods, buying german or american whenever possible, and it hits the Japanese economy very hard. The Japanese actually have nothing to lose now. Which is why Abe, the hawkish sinophobe, actually tries to escalate since the Japanese establishment still firmly believes in China's inherent internal weakness and dividedness to outside aggression and the strong US backing of their cause, no matter how provokating, since the "pivot to asia" effectively empowered everyone to move against China while feeling the power of the world's only Superpower behind their backs.

I'd still judge the potential of shooting war, despite the recent visit by former (and ill-fated) Japanese PM Hatoyama to China (he even visited the Nanjing Massacre memorial) and the more calming rethoric of China, really high. It only takes a single tracer round fired at a Chinese Y-8 surveillance plane, until the PLAAF's J-10As are going to let lose their missiles at the Japanese fighter jets.

Depends which media (Western, Chinese or Japanese) you believe. However, the situation is becoming serious vis-a-vis Diaoyu-Senkaku Islands dispute. A shooting "accident" could happen involving rival aircraft or ships. "Drum Beats of War" would become very loud. Diplomats NOT Hawks on either side should now realize the serious consequences arising from miscalculations. International arbitration is one IMPORTANT step to consider when both sides are determined to stand firm.

Originally Posted by airsuperiority

If my initial estimation of a possibility of conflict bursting out of control were 2%, now it's 40%, and probably if things continue it will heed to 60%. Neither is good. It does make me wonder what kind of incident may we see as a result of such outbreaks

Originally Posted by Insignius

The chinese economic warfare is still ongoing against Japan. Lots of Chinese people are still boycotting Japanese goods, buying german or american whenever possible, and it hit the Japanese economy very hard. The Japanese actually have nothing to lose now. Which is why Abe, the hawkish sinophobe, actually tries to escalate since the Japanese establishment still firmly believes in China's inherent internal weakness and dividedness to outside aggression and the strong US backing of their cause, no matter how provokating, since the "pivot to asia" effectively empowered everyone to move against China while feeling the power of the world's only Superpower behind their backs.

I'd still judge the potential of shooting war, despite the recent visit by former (and ill-fated) Japanese PM Hatoyama to China (he even visited the Nanjing Massacre memorial) and the more calming rethoric of China, really high. It only takes a single tracer round fired at a Chinese Y-8 surveillance plane, until the PLAAF's J-10As are going to let lose their missiles at the Japanese fighter jets.

On the contrary, that the Chinese boycott has done some damage to the Japanese economy is precisely why we won't see an escalation. Abe won on an economic growth platform, and to stay in power he needs to pursue policies that produce favourable growth. While on the short term it may make sense to hawk on China, on the long term that will limit opportunities for the Japanese economy to grow. Abe is pushing a hard line on the islands because he needs to consolidate his nationalist base, but he won't do that forever. Japan, like China, has zero incentive to actually stir a conflict since both sides maintain political legitimacy through a strong economy. Right now they're just posturing because they have to.

Also, the US has hardly even begun its "pivot to Asia" policies yet. We don't even know what that "pivot" will look like. Whatever new policies the US has adopted has done relatively little to change the security dynamic in East Asia.

Well, I acknowledge that there might be more internal political reasons for Japan to hawk at China, but I dissagree with the fact that the Japanese leadership gains legitimacy over their economic performance, like China would. If the decade-long Japanese economic crisis shows anything, is that their central govt. is, despite their horrible debts, completely and firmly in control to make more debts. Why? Because of social and cultural reasons. The most debts are owned by Japanese banks and they sell those to the Japanese people, who, despite seeing the fallout of economic crisis everyday, still firmly believe in their state's "guaranteed" ability to pay them back some day, even though it is just not possible when looking at it realistically. Just as the japanese refugees of the Fukushima Nuclear Disaster naiively believed their govt. that the certain areas they are allowed to return to arent irradiated (which proved to be false), the Japenanese will never doubt or even overthrow their respective govt. when they "lose their legitimacy due to bad economic performance" - the Japanese will never doubt in their govt, even when they all starve to death due to stupid economic policies. Their culture is confucianist loyalty to the state taken to the absolute max. The Chinese are cynical, doubtful, liberal-minded and very self-aware people in comparisson, while the Japanese are almost feudal in their believe in the rightfulness of the state.

So, even when Chinese economic warfare is ruining whole of Japan by re-enforcing their self-made problems of over three decades, the Japanese govt. will only get more hawkish from this point on, regardless of their internal political infighting.

Originally Posted by Insignius

Well, I acknowledge that there might be more internal political reasons for Japan to hawk at China, but I dissagree with the fact that the Japanese leadership gains legitimacy over their economic performance, like China would. If the decade-long Japanese economic crisis shows anything, is that their central govt. is, despite their horrible debts, completely and firmly in control to make more debts. Why? Because of social and cultural reasons. The most debts are owned by Japanese banks and they sell those to the Japanese people, who, despite seeing the fallout of economic crisis everyday, still firmly believe in their state's "guaranteed" ability to pay them back some day, even though it is just not possible when looking at it realistically. Just as the japanese refugees of the Fukushima Nuclear Disaster naiively believed their govt. that the certain areas they are allowed to return to arent irradiated (which proved to be false), the Japenanese will never doubt or even overthrow their respective govt. when they "lose their legitimacy due to bad economic performance" - the Japanese will never doubt in their govt, even when they all starve to death due to stupid economic policies. Their culture is confucianist loyalty to the state taken to the absolute max. The Chinese are cynical, doubtful, liberal-minded and very self-aware people in comparisson, while the Japanese are almost feudal in their believe in the rightfulness of the state.

So, even when Chinese economic warfare is ruining whole of Japan by re-enforcing their self-made problems of over three decades, the Japanese govt. will only get more hawkish from this point on, regardless of their internal political infighting.

I'm going to ignore a lot of the unsubstantiated broad based generalizations about Japan *nodnod*

If the last decade of Japanese politics has shown us anything, it is that administrations that can't deliver on economic promises get booted. Really fast.

And let's not get into a debate about Japan's economy. I often joke with a friend that it's every macroeconomist's favourite pinata. However, for Japan debt is not the problem. It's a symptom of the problem.

China's boycott does some damage, but it's mostly just an added burden to an already really bad situation.

Despite all the western media bias and BS, not even they can quite suspend reality enough to suggest that the Chinese will fire the first shot in any war. That is why all the talk is of 'accidental escalation', whereas if there was any chance that the Chinese might fire first, all we will be hearing is how the Chinese are stirring up trouble and spoiling for a fight.

The Americans are already yanking on Japan's leash. The situation won't escalate into actual war because China is no military push over any more and America doesn't want a war with China, so Japan won't dare fire first because to do so without American backing is to invite a spanking.

Without massive American direct combat intervention, if push comes to shove, the odds favor China to come out on top in any limited war over the Diaoyus with Japan. Japanese hawks knows this better than anyone, and if America makes it clear in private that it won't bleed to help stoke Japanese nationalistic egos, there will be no war.

All Japan is doing so far is bluffing and huffing to try and scare China off.

Sending 8 F15s plus support aircraft against a single unarmed Chinese Y7 was overkill of ludicrous proportions, and the Japanese only did that to try and send a message.

When China sent up J10s this time, the Japanese response is far more modest and telling.

Firstly, they didn't sent up 8 times as many fighters as China because they actually only have 30 upgraded F15s that can fire ARHAAMs, the rest being 30 year old museum pieces that will get outclassed by JH7s and late model J8s in BVR never mind J10s and J11A/Bs.

Secondly, they didn't send up any more fighters because suddenly it got real for them. This isn't just a case of them being able to harass Chinese ships and planes in international airspace and waters with impunity (where was America's vaunted freedom navigation line when all this was happening?), if they stepped too far over the line, the Chinese could push back and will very likely win any ensuring dogfight.

Last I heard, all this talk of firing warning shots have been rubbished by the Japanese themselves as moronic and dangerous, since it was originally floated when all China was sending up were unarmed surveillance planes, so there was little risk of the Japanese loosing that fight.

Originally Posted by latenlazy

Eh, I wouldn't call them slow. I saw this on AP about when it happened. This is just one of those rehashed articles.

AP News: Senior China leader urges island talks with Japan



I say 10-20%. If they do exchange fire, both sides will pull back rather quickly. Neither side wants to give a gut punch to the global economy while its this fragile, and Abe will need to maintain some kind of relationship with China for Japan's economy.

Technically if Abe cant handle the situation and armed conflict results, his term is done