China can and will achieve total air superiority over Taiwan

Originally Posted by maozedong

Taiwan and mainland, just like two brothers,I believe in Taiwan senior military officers the PLAs people are working,even they know Chen Shuibian"s toilet.When Nationalist party Chiang Kai-shek's Ministry of Defense, there are senior officials of the Communist Party.

Ever since president Lee Teng-hui (who consider himself japanese) and now , Chen Shui-bian (a green party member who advocate sussession from china) took office. Relation has deteriorated from brother to arch rival stance.

Please refrain from political issues on this thread.

no more politics got it.

Originally Posted by akinkhoo

wouldn't the war start with... an missile attack? if you could crater half of the airfield and force their closure for repairing the runway. how bad of a position would taiwan be? does taiwan have defenses against an all out missile attack numbering close to a 1000?

The best option of attack against airbases facing the mainland is (beidou guided artillery). A barrage from longrange guided artillery should render open airfield useless within an hour. On the other hand ROCA cauld also be researching GPS guided artillery as well, so I can't discount ROC.

The US Excalibur is just devastating. (92% of rounds falling within 4 meters of the target)

The best option of attack against airbases facing the mainland is (beidou guided artillery). A barrage from longrange guided artillery should render open airfield useless within an hour. On the other hand ROCA cauld also be researching GPS guided artillery as well, so I can't discount ROC.

Did I got it rigth? You are planning to shoot cross the straigth with artillery? ...so much I have heard...

In really optimal conditions and in purely scientifical nature, South Africans managed to reach 70km with 155mm/52 combo with special rounds mented to reach this range, but in tactical situation, you can easily take out of 30 km from that figure. So as a someone that has actually served with 155/52 artillery, Im eager to learn about the new innovations you have in mind that would make this sort of miracle possiple

155 MM definitely won't reach that far, a naval artillery from a PLAN ship 16 nautical mile away might. I should clarify that to fire from the mainland you need something bigger than the paris gun LOL.

The best percision artillery option for a destroyer is 8 inch gun, with a accurate range of 25 max nautical miles off from target. If protected by fighter coverage.
Hsiung Feng III and Harpoon is the only threat, but the artillery is fire and forget and can easily make a run for it after it fires a barrage of shells.
ROC has a 12 nautical mile territorial water limit. The destroyer would have been in international waters.

The best percision artillery option for a destroyer is 8 inch gun, with a accurate range of 25 max nautical miles off from target. If protected by fighter coverage.
Hsiung Feng III and Harpoon is the only threat, but the artillery is fire and forget and can easily make a run for it after it fires a barrage of shells.
ROC has a 12 nautical mile territorial water limit. The destroyer would have been in international waters.

Well PLAN doesent have 8 inchers, does it?
And Can anyone be that naive to think that ROCN wouldn't be monitoring really closely, if suddenly a strong PLAN task force comes so close to its shores? To have any results on bombardment, that means that those ships needs to fire quite a time, not just few rounds. Airbases are huge by area, and to neutralize one, one has to have accurate and dense fire consentrations to vast region, and that means lot of firing. All that time, you need to keep out all possible opposite factors attacking these ships And to have that sort of effect that you want in first place, It would mean strong, really strong naval force....at least 25-50 such guns disperenced so that they could reach all Taiwanese airbases.
PLAN doesent have that sort of assets, nor it cannot tie all of its fleet to conduct simple mission, when it needs to cover all other aspects of naval warfare at the same time.

Golly right on this, 4 incher definitely won't do.

However, PLAN warship was able to station 60km north of the island and then test fire missile 25-35 miles off Keelung Kaohsiung with no ROCN retaliation.
ROC just doesn't want to fire first.
I suppose any hostility will commense with coordinated missile strike, airstrikes, and naval artillary are for key bases close to the ocean. Since SAT guided rounds are so accurate, you won't need total saturation. PLAN need to ground the plane initially by putting 92% of the rounds on the runway.
I go one step further and say chiayi, Hsinchu and Hualien will be the main artillary target.
Hualien is facing the ocean so shi lang battle group should be there for support.

Ching Chuan Kang and Tainan will be hit with other means. 5 airbase total. 2 falcon base, 1 mirage base and 2 IDF chingkuo base.

For ROCAF to win they need to hit PLAN first. As Golly said, PLAN isn't that powerful.

Single ship making sabre-clashing missile test is bit different than entire fleet positioning in strategic range under situation where all other PLA assets are ready to attack. Modern military inteligense seems to get ignored alot in these scenarios.

It doesent matter which one fires first, becouse PLAN ships aren't shooting those Taiwanese assets that are mented to counter the bombardment fleet. That gives ROCN and ROCAF forces tactical intiative, as PLAN is tied to conduct so huge mission that needs to work at the clock with all other PLA forces. That doesent give much room for adjust the co-ordinated attacks to counter ROCAs counter moves.
That is the biggest proplem in all Taiwan invasion plans. In theory and in optimal conditions, PLA clearly has all the tools nesserical to win that war, but it still lacks the depth withstand misshaps, failures and suprises from the opponent, that are basic requirments in this level operations

Originally Posted by Gollevainen

Im eager to learn about the new innovations you have in mind that would make this sort of miracle possiple

Italian Vulcano round, 155mm or 127mm, range about 100-120km with 127mm version, probably more with 155mm version.

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/mh/d...p?startpage=32

There are other products such as these coming around. Smart munitions and long-range munitions are really changing the artillery. With the advent of tactical ballistic missiles, such as ATACMS, they're really questioning the value of CAS. (Close And Stupid against serious air defense nowadays...)

Whether or not this technology is available for China will be more question of time, I would guess. But the real ace in the sleeve for either defender or attacker will be EM gun technology, providing ample range to attack Taiwan from mainland or to attack invasion harbours from Taiwan.

Originally Posted by Gollevainen

The limited numbers of those missiles is another thing. You may think that 500 or 700 is a huge number, but in reality its not so impressive if you use conventional warheads.

Without taking accuracy into question it is actually quite a concentration of firepower. A single DF-11 has warhead of 500kg's, sure, but taking kinetical energy into account it's probably worth about 1000kg, or 2000lbs bomb.

Let's compare this to an airstrike, let's start with 500 missiles. To get similar shock effect of 500 2000lbs bombs hitting the ground simultaneously you need 500 airplanes alone if your aimpoints are not within convenient range. But let's simplify this and say each of the strike aircraft will have two bombs. That's 250 strike planes then. But, to get those strike planes through a number of SEAD sorties, fighter sweeps etc. have to be flown.

Another issue is PGM's. Yes, they're more expensive but they are extremely cost effective as less bombs have to be delivered than with conventional bombs.

This topic is old, so I don't know if this is much of an input, but here's my secret master plan to eliminate Taiwanese air defense. It's composed of various actions:

On day one,

First one is a total aerial effort approaching Taiwan. As PLAAF planes get closer and ROC interceptors are being launched, a massive SSM strike will be launched on airfields, using cluster munitions to catch as much planes on the ground as possible. Known SAM sites will be attacked too.

The first air effort will be mostly a feint, to lure ROC forces into air superiority fight and SAM traps. As ROC fighters endurance gets lower, a second wave of SSM's will be launched with runway cratering munitions. (In reality, this would be almost impossible to synchronize, but SSM's launched together with air effort would ensure that main ROC defense effort would be concentrated on shooting down TBM's instead of PLAAF planes.). A number of SSM's will be used as a reserve to attack SAM sites whose location will be known via EW measures.

On day two,

Repeat of the same, but this time with tactical strike planes actually making to strike the targets. Repeat as many times necessary or as many times as it's possible. Some SSM's should be kept in reserve, as with possible invasion some SAM's will be kept in reserve. SSM's should be used to eliminate SAM's.

That is the biggest proplem in all Taiwan invasion plans. In theory and in optimal conditions, PLA clearly has all the tools nesserical to win that war, but it still lacks the depth withstand misshaps, failures and suprises from the opponent, that are basic requirments in this level operations/

This is also true of the ROC however, and more for them. What's worst for the ROC is that it actually makes things easier for the PLA by consolidating eggs in a few baskets, while at the same time, failing to match the PLA in terms of commitment in training, development of new doctrines, and in acquisition of new equipment. Its not as much as the PLA's competency, but the ROC's incompentency.

I would add to Jon K invasion strategy by manuver surface fleet in range and forge a beach head with accurate cannon fire on the fourth day, progressively move inland and knock out counter attack asset that will pose a threat to the landing.
kinetic sabot+sat guidence+large calibre rapid fire artillery==winning formula for offshore bombardment.

Acquisition of new equiptment by ROC is more affiliated with PLA pressure.
Currently only the US are willing to sell, monopoly bring high prices that ROC accountant cauldn't swollow.

Several sources like Jane's have reported for some time now that China is conducting a quite advanced research and development project for electromagnetic rail guns since the mid 90's.

Apparently a mobile EM gun firing a guided 155 mm (...or heavier) projectile to distances up to 300 km would indeed be very useful against targets on Taiwan. May be a ´big gun´surprise is in the making for the new year...